盘前市场动向 1. 9月5(周五)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货涨跌不一。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.05%，标普500指数期货涨0.22%，纳指期货涨 0.53%。 | = US 30 | 45,600.00 | 45,706.00 | 45,595.00 | -21.30 | -0.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | = US 500 | 6,516.10 | 6,521.60 | 6.504.10 | +14.00 | +0.22% | | 트 US Tech 100 | 23,757.60 | 23,760.30 | 23,655.30 | +124.60 | +0.53% | 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.11%，英国富时100指数涨0.29%，法国CAC40指数涨0.12%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.21%。 | 德国DAX30 | 23,814.17 | 23,886.89 | 23,756.03 | +27.14 | +0.11% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 瑞 英国富时100 | 9, ...

智通财经APP获悉，德州仪器(TXN.US)首席财务官拉斐尔·利扎尔迪(Rafael Lizardi)在花旗TMT会议上发 出警告，称半导体需求的复苏速度并未如部分人所期望的那样迅速。据报道，利扎尔迪在会议上表 示："这并未完全像一些人预期的那样发生，也不像其他复苏情况那样。"对于相关评论请求，德州仪器 未立即作出回应。 该公司指出，汽车行业依旧是复苏最为缓慢的行业，这或许受到宏观不确定性的影响。不过，从长期来 看，汽车行业的增长预计将扩大公司产品的总潜在市场(TAM)。 德州仪器预计，在其涉及的五个终端市场中，有四个正在全面复苏，但汽车市场仍是个例外，其复苏进 程较为缓慢。公司方面补充道，此次复苏并非急剧反弹，而是稳步推进，工业、汽车零部件、企业和数 据中心领域都蕴含着长期增长机遇。 此外，德州仪器补充称，公司已获得《CHIPS法案》的支持，并预计将从投资税收抵免中获得约60亿至 90亿美元的扶持，由于当前35%的投资税收抵免率(ITC)，相关优惠更为可观。 公司还明确表示，目前没有收购政府股权的计划。在价格策略上，德州仪器会定期根据市场情况进行调 整，并指出长期基准情况假设价格将出现低个位数下降，幅度在2 ...

Summary of JCET (600584.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: JCET (Jiangsu Changjiang Electronics Technology Co., Ltd.) - **Industry**: Semiconductor and advanced packaging Key Financial Results - **2Q25 Revenue**: Rmb 9.27 billion, a 7% increase YoY but a 1% decrease QoQ, missing estimates by 17% and 9% respectively [1][2] - **Gross Margin**: Improved to 14.3%, matching 2Q24 levels, higher than estimates of 13.3% [1][2] - **Net Income**: Decreased by 45% YoY to Rmb 267 million, missing estimates by 50% [1][2] - **Operating Income**: Rmb 427 million, down 27% from estimates [2] Segment Performance - **Consumer Electronics**: Softer than expected, with a slight YoY decrease in 1H25 [1] - **Other Segments**: Communication, computation, automobile, industrial, and healthcare achieved double-digit revenue growth YoY [1] - **Automotive Electronics**: Revenue increased by 34% YoY in 1H25, supported by the new Shanghai plant expected to start production in 2H25 [3] Operational Insights - **R&D Investment**: Increased from Rmb 459 million in 1Q25 to Rmb 528 million in 2Q25, indicating ongoing expansion into new products [1] - **Capacity Expansion**: New Shanghai plant for automotive electronics completed in 1H25 [3] Earnings Revisions - **2025E Net Income**: Revised down by 15% due to lower revenues and higher operating expenses [8] - **2025E Revenue**: Revised down by 4% to Rmb 41.96 billion, reflecting weaker consumer electronics demand [8][9] - **Future Growth**: Expected revenue growth of 26% HoH in 2H25 due to seasonal demand recovery [8] Valuation and Price Target - **Target Price**: Rmb 39.3, based on a target P/E of 23.3x 2026E EPS [17][19] - **Current Price**: Rmb 37.70, indicating a modest upside of 4.2% [19] Risks and Considerations - **Key Risks**: Variability in semiconductor capex expansion in China, technology development pace, and advanced packaging shipment ramp-up [18] Conclusion - JCET is positioned to benefit from the recovery in semiconductor demand, particularly in the automotive sector, despite recent earnings misses and challenges in the consumer electronics segment. The company maintains a neutral rating due to modest upside potential based on current valuations.

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant net selling from northbound capital, totaling 14.682 billion HKD on August 20, with notable net selling in specific stocks and sectors [1][7]. Group 1: Northbound Capital Activity - Northbound capital recorded a net selling of 14.682 billion HKD, with 7.587 billion HKD from the Shanghai Stock Connect and 7.095 billion HKD from the Shenzhen Stock Connect [1]. - The most bought stocks by northbound capital included Tencent (00700), Pop Mart (09992), and Oriental Selection (01797) [1]. - The most sold stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Southbound Hang Seng Technology (03033) [1]. Group 2: Stock-Specific Performance - Tencent (00700) saw a net buy of 9.69 billion HKD, supported by positive second-quarter performance reports from Bank of America, which raised profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 2% [4]. - Pop Mart (09992) reported a net buy of 3.43 billion HKD, with a 204.4% year-on-year revenue increase to 13.88 billion CNY and a net profit growth of 362.8% to 4.71 billion CNY [5]. - Oriental Selection (01797) had a net buy of 3.02 billion HKD, with the company addressing rumors regarding its CEO and clarifying commission rates [5]. Group 3: Other Notable Stocks - Xiaomi Group (01810) experienced a net buy of 1.85 billion HKD, with a 75.4% year-on-year increase in adjusted net profit to 10.831 billion CNY, driven by its electric vehicle business [6]. - Semiconductor stocks like SMIC (00981) and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) faced net selling of 933 million and 925 million HKD, respectively, despite positive revenue forecasts [6]. - The Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800) and Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828) faced significant net selling of 10.322 billion and 5.727 billion HKD, respectively, attributed to a lack of performance compared to A-shares [7].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant net inflows from Northbound trading, with a total net buy of HKD 185.73 billion on August 19, 2023, indicating strong investor interest in Hong Kong stocks [1]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading through Stock Connect recorded a net buy of HKD 89.11 billion from Shanghai and HKD 96.62 billion from Shenzhen [1]. - The most bought stocks included the Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800), Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828), and Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033) [1]. - The most sold stocks were Oriental Selection (01797), SMIC (00981), and Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) [1]. Individual Stock Performance - **Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (02800)**: Net buy of HKD 70.7 billion [6]. - **Hang Seng China Enterprises (02828)**: Net buy of HKD 22.14 billion [6]. - **Southern Hang Seng Technology (03033)**: Net buy of HKD 14.11 billion [6]. - **Tencent Holdings (00700)**: Net buy of HKD 10.25 billion; reported a 15% year-on-year revenue growth to HKD 184.5 billion and a 17% increase in net profit [6]. - **Xiaomi Group (01810)**: Net buy of HKD 7.39 billion; reported a 30% year-on-year revenue increase to HKD 115.96 billion [7]. - **Sangfor Technologies (01530)**: Net buy of HKD 2.82 billion; recently completed a share placement to Pfizer [7]. - **Jingtao Holdings (02228)**: Net buy of HKD 1.79 billion; expects a significant increase in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts from Industrial Securities maintain a bullish outlook on Hong Kong stocks, predicting a long-term bull market driven by increasing confidence among global and Chinese investors [6]. - The potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is seen as a catalyst for further liquidity in the Hong Kong market [6].

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are experiencing a rebound, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q2 2025, driven by high capacity utilization and domestic demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SMIC's stock rose by 3.18% to HKD 50.25, while Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 3.02% to HKD 43.66, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - Both companies exceeded market expectations in revenue and gross margin due to high capacity utilization rates [1] - SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor forecast a quarterly revenue growth of 6% and 11% respectively for Q3 2025, suggesting a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The pricing environment is improving, and capacity utilization remains high, which is beneficial for both companies [1] - Despite the positive revenue outlook, the recovery of gross margins may still be a distant prospect [1] - Analysts from various firms express optimism about SMIC's leading position in domestic wafer foundry and Hua Hong Semiconductor's potential recovery due to localization trends and improvements in the industrial and automotive markets [1]

Core Viewpoint - Semiconductor stocks are experiencing a rebound, with companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reporting better-than-expected earnings for Q2 2025, driven by high capacity utilization and domestic demand [1] Group 1: Company Performance - SMIC's stock rose by 3.18% to HKD 50.25, while Hua Hong Semiconductor increased by 3.02% to HKD 43.66, indicating positive market sentiment towards these companies [1] - Both SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor exceeded market expectations in revenue and gross margin due to high capacity utilization rates [1] - For Q3 2025, SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor forecast revenue growth of 6% and 11% quarter-on-quarter, respectively, suggesting a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The pricing environment is improving, and capacity utilization remains high, although gross margin recovery may still be distant [1] - The trend towards domestic substitution of key semiconductor products is expected to benefit SMIC, reinforcing its leading position in the domestic wafer foundry market [1] - Hua Hong Semiconductor is anticipated to experience a recovery due to improvements in the domestic market and the industrial and automotive sectors [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that both SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor have reported their Q2 2025 earnings, exceeding market expectations due to high capacity utilization driven by domestic demand [1] - Both companies forecast a sequential revenue growth of 6% and 11% for Q3 2025, respectively, suggesting a gradual recovery in semiconductor demand, although margin recovery may still be distant [1] - Citi's report highlights that the demand for foundry services in the backend process remains robust, but further growth will depend on significant margin improvements [1] Group 2 - Citi raised the target price for Hua Hong from HKD 39 to HKD 45, while maintaining the target price for SMIC at HKD 53, with a "neutral" rating for both companies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Many companies in the machine tool and robotics sectors expect to achieve both revenue and profit growth in the fiscal year 2025, despite risks from tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which may slow equipment investment. The prevailing view is that a recovery in demand from China and the semiconductor sector can offset these risks [1][2]. Group 1: Machine Tool Orders and Market Trends - In April, Japan's machine tool orders increased by 8% year-on-year, reaching 130.2 billion yen, marking seven consecutive months of growth [1]. - Domestic orders in Japan decreased by 5% to 34.4 billion yen, while overseas orders rose by 13% to 95.7 billion yen [1]. - Manufacturers generally believe that factory investments will remain robust, despite weaker equipment investment from small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan [1]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Makino Milling Machine Co. anticipates a decrease in consolidated sales by 11.3 billion yen and operating profit by 2.1 billion yen due to yen appreciation, but expects to achieve record-high sales and operating profit for the fiscal year [1]. - Okuma Corporation expects both sales and operating profit to grow for the first time in two fiscal years, driven by strong demand in the aerospace and semiconductor sectors [2]. - SMC, a factory automation component company, estimates that tariffs and exchange rates will negatively impact sales by 55 billion yen and operating profit by 29.6 billion yen, yet plans to achieve revenue and profit growth due to investments from Chinese manufacturers [2]. - Misumi Group anticipates a decline in both revenue and profit, citing tariffs and yen appreciation as key factors [2]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Risks - The semiconductor and Chinese market demand is believed to have bottomed out, with expectations for a comprehensive recovery in the factory automation industry by 2025, surpassing concerns over tariffs [2]. - Fanuc, a robotics company, has not disclosed performance expectations due to the unpredictable impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating a potential for increased production in the U.S. as a future option [3]. - Companies expecting revenue and profit growth must prepare for sudden changes in the business environment [4].