Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term and may rise further in 2026 compared to 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and the role of Central Huijin [1]. - The bond market is favored by asset shortages and weak economic conditions, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1]. - Metal prices are influenced by factors such as supply disruptions, macro sentiment, and cost changes. Some metals are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility or are subject to supply concerns [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply and demand, and cost support. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as seasonal changes, policy support, and supply and demand. Some products are expected to have upward trends, while others may experience volatility [1]. Summary by Category A-shares - A-share market has continuous trading volume increase. Short-term, the index is expected to remain strong. In 2026, the index may continue to rise on the basis of 2025, supported by macro policies, inflation, capital market reforms, and Central Huijin [1]. Bonds - Asset shortages and weak economic conditions are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals - Copper: Supply disruptions and improved macro sentiment have led to a rise in copper prices, and the upward trend is expected to continue [1]. - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum has accumulated inventory, but macro sentiment is positive, and global aluminum ingot supply is expected to tighten, leading to a strong aluminum price [1]. - Alumina: Supply has significant release potential, putting pressure on prices. However, the current price is close to the cost line, and the price is expected to oscillate [1]. - Zinc: Fundamentals have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. With positive macro sentiment, zinc prices have risen, but the upside space is limited due to fundamental pressure [1]. - Nickel: Supply concerns have led to a significant increase in nickel prices and an increase in positions. The short-term price may be strongly oscillating, but high risks and volatility are present at high price levels. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1]. Industrial and Energy Chemicals - Polycrystalline silicon: Northwest production has increased, while southwest production has decreased. December production schedules for polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon have declined [1]. - Carbonate lithium: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, with strong energy storage demand and increased supply from restarts. Prices have risen rapidly in the short term [1]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Futures-spot arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit-taking. The price valuation is not high, and short-selling is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near-term contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is positive, and there is still an upward opportunity for far-term contracts [1]. - Silicone and ferrosilicon: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. In the short term, expectations dominate, and energy consumption control and anti-involution may disrupt supply [1]. - Soda ash: The market sentiment has improved, and the supply and demand are supportive. The price is low and expected to be strong in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, there may still be room for price increases, but the actual increase is difficult to judge, and volatility increases after a significant rise [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: The December MPOB data is expected to be bearish, but the price is expected to reverse under themes such as seasonal production cuts, the B50 policy, and US biofuels. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for [1]. - Soybean oil: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to be overweight in the oil market. Consider the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [1]. - Cotton: There is support but no driving force in the short term. Future attention should be paid to the central government's No. 1 document in the first quarter of next year, planting area intentions, weather during the planting period, and peak season demand [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. The short side consensus is strong. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short term [1]. - Corn: With the release of reserve and imported grains, the supply has increased. The spot price is expected to be firm in the short term, and the futures price will oscillate within a range [1]. - Pulp: The 05 contract is expected to oscillate between 5400 - 5700 yuan/ton due to the tug-of-war between "strong supply" and "weak demand" [1]. - Logs: The spot price has shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding, and the downward space for the futures price is limited. However, the January overseas quotation has slightly declined, and there is a lack of upward driving factors. The price is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. The uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement and US sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports have an impact [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil in the short term, with no prominent supply-demand contradictions [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five-Year Plan" rush demand is likely to be disproven, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The profit margin is high [1]. - Natural rubber: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures-spot price difference has rebounded significantly, and the midstream inventory has increased substantially [1]. - BR rubber: The upward momentum has slowed down, the spot price has led the recovery of the basis, and the processing profit has narrowed. There are positive factors for future domestic butadiene exports [1]. - PTA: The PX market has experienced a sharp rise, and the PTA market is expected to remain tight in 2026. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the gasoline spread provides support for aromatics [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Two MEG plants in Taiwan, China, plan to shut down next month. The price has rebounded rapidly due to supply-side news, and the downstream demand is slightly better than expected [1]. - Styrene: The Asian market is stable, with suppliers reluctant to cut prices due to losses and buyers pressing for lower prices due to weak downstream demand. The market is in a weak balance, and the upward momentum depends on overseas markets [1]. - Urea: The export sentiment has eased, and the upside space is limited due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side [1]. - PE: There is a risk of rising crude oil prices due to geopolitical conflicts. The supply pressure is high, and the market expectation is weak due to planned production increases in 2026 [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is high, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. The cost is supported by high propylene monomer and crude oil prices [1]. - PVC: The global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current supply pressure is rising. The demand is weak, and the implementation of differential electricity prices in the northwest may force the clearance of PVC production capacity [1]. - LPG: The January CP has risen unexpectedly, and the import cost provides strong support. Geopolitical conflicts have increased the risk premium. The inventory accumulation trend has slowed down, and the domestic port inventory is decreasing. The long-term demand for LPG is expected to increase [1]. Aviation - It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumptions [1].

Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to gradually regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $55 and resistance at $62.50 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions [3] - Following the Fed's meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and support at 99.32 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement [4] - The focus is on the 51,500 level as a key support and resistance line [4] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been fluctuating within a wide range, with a key support level at $4.94; a drop below this level may indicate a trend reversal [5] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [5] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with the wording, highlighting the need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of this year [7]

Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of around $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019, but predicts a return to $3,375 by 2027 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline earlier in the week, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $57 if it breaks below $59.60 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions, leading to a weakening of the euro and strengthening of the dollar [3] - Following the Federal Reserve meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining rates [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and a target of 103.20 if confirmed [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement and reduced pullback [5] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been in a wide range of fluctuations, with a key support level at $4.94; a break below this could indicate a trend reversal [6] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [6] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with its communication, highlighting a need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported record global gold demand in Q3, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [7]

Production Adjustment - OPEC 代表透露，沙特阿拉伯及其伙伴国计划正式批准增产 548 thousand 桶/日 [1] - 此次增产将完全恢复八个成员国在 2023 年达成的 220 万桶/日减产额度 [1] - 增产计划还包括阿联酋正在分阶段实施的额外配额 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Core Insights - OPEC+ is likely to discuss the oil production benchmark for 2027 and may agree to increase production in July during this week's meeting [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering adjustments to its production strategy, specifically focusing on the year 2027 [1] - The potential agreement to increase production in July indicates a proactive approach to managing oil supply [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is likely to discuss the oil production benchmark for 2027 this week [1] - There is an agreement to increase production in July [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]