Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to gradually regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $55 and resistance at $62.50 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions [3] - Following the Fed's meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining the current rate [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and support at 99.32 [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement [4] - The focus is on the 51,500 level as a key support and resistance line [4] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been fluctuating within a wide range, with a key support level at $4.94; a drop below this level may indicate a trend reversal [5] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [5] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with the wording, highlighting the need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand reached a record high in the third quarter of this year [7]

Gold Sector - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.0%, but uncertainty remains regarding future rate cuts, particularly in December [1] - The World Bank forecasts an average gold price of around $3,575 next year, with a potential increase of 5%, reaching double the average from 2015-2019, but predicts a return to $3,375 by 2027 [1] - Analyst Owen from Zhisheng Research believes that the second rate cut this year is already priced in, leading to weak gold performance [1] - Technically, gold has shown weak performance after a decline earlier in the week, with potential resistance at $4,070 [1] Oil Sector - The OPEC+ meeting on November 2 is expected to result in a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December to regain market share [2] - The International Energy Agency reported a significant drop in oil inventories by 6.86 million barrels, exceeding market expectations, which is bullish for oil prices [2] - Despite the inventory drop, U.S. oil production increased by 15,000 barrels to a record 1,364.4 million barrels per day, failing to support a price increase [2] - Technically, oil is forming a double bottom structure, with support at $57 if it breaks below $59.60 [2] Dollar Index - The European Central Bank maintained its key deposit rate at 2%, citing uncertainty in the eurozone due to global trade and geopolitical tensions, leading to a weakening of the euro and strengthening of the dollar [3] - Following the Federal Reserve meeting, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is at 74.7%, with a 57.7% chance of maintaining rates [3] - The dollar is showing signs of a bottoming pattern, with potential resistance at 100.20 and a target of 103.20 if confirmed [3] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index is in a strong bullish trend with no signs of a peak, showing accelerated upward movement and reduced pullback [5] Copper Sector - Copper prices have been in a wide range of fluctuations, with a key support level at $4.94; a break below this could indicate a trend reversal [6] - Recent price action shows a pullback after reaching highs, with resistance at $5.11 [6] Market Overview - Trump indicated a potentially large agreement involving oil and gas purchases from Alaska [7] - U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed appreciation for the Fed's rate cut but dissatisfaction with its communication, highlighting a need for significant reforms [7] - The World Gold Council reported record global gold demand in Q3, marking the highest quarterly demand ever [7]

Production Adjustment - OPEC 代表透露，沙特阿拉伯及其伙伴国计划正式批准增产 548 thousand 桶/日 [1] - 此次增产将完全恢复八个成员国在 2023 年达成的 220 万桶/日减产额度 [1] - 增产计划还包括阿联酋正在分阶段实施的额外配额 [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to maintain a moderately strong and volatile trend. With the geopolitical risk in the Middle East still present, the premium of crude oil has increased. After a significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has been strengthened, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. The peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere has boosted demand. Although 8 major OPEC and non - OPEC oil - producing countries plan to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations, the potential for further production expansion is limited in the future as the production increase negative factors are digested and the original production increase plan is gradually realized. [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2509 is oscillatory, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillatory [1][5]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2509 is moderately strong and oscillatory, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5]. Price Movement and Data - On Thursday night, domestic and international crude oil futures prices maintained a moderately strong and oscillatory trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed slightly up 1.79% to 511.9 yuan per barrel [5].

Core Insights - OPEC+ is likely to discuss the oil production benchmark for 2027 and may agree to increase production in July during this week's meeting [1] Group 1 - OPEC+ is considering adjustments to its production strategy, specifically focusing on the year 2027 [1] - The potential agreement to increase production in July indicates a proactive approach to managing oil supply [1]

Group 1 - OPEC+ is likely to discuss the oil production benchmark for 2027 this week [1] - There is an agreement to increase production in July [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]