以下文章来源于食通社Foodthink ，作者许千路 食通社Foodthink . 一个关于可持续食物的知识和信息平台，集结国内外研究者和实践者，共同传播和倡导更加可持续的农业和食物 系统。 本文来自微信公众号： 食通社Foodthink ，作者：许千路，编辑：玉阳，题图来自：视觉中国 有时候，感觉世界很大，大到每天有各种各样的信息充斥在社交媒体上，科技的、民生的、贸易的、金融的、 社会事件的等等，让人目不暇接。有时候，又感觉世界很小，或许一个农机企业的兴衰就足以影响一个县城的 命运。后来，我发现 这个世界大与小之间并不那么绝对，一个县城普通居民的小日子，悄悄地被这个社会的宏 观变化所决定着 。而生活在其中的人只能继续沉浮，或是积极、或是消极地面对这一切。 去年年底，因为工作原因，我被调往鲁西地区的一个小县城，接受为期半年的基层锻炼。此刻，当我动笔尝试 写下那半年的光景，万青的歌词——"如此生活三十年，直到大厦崩塌"——就这样从脑海里跳了出来。 高唐县，古称高唐州，县城不大，按照北京的比例尺计算，大约是十号线地铁站所围成的大小，其中还包括城 中心的一片水域。再往外便是农田和民房混合的城郊，越靠近城郊的地方，道 ...

Core Insights - The restaurant industry is no longer in a "dividend period," and businesses must adapt to new market conditions to survive by moving beyond outdated experiences from 2018 to compete effectively in 2025 [1][3] - The focus should shift to "old industries combined with new trends" and "genuine needs of small demographics" to uncover new business opportunities [4] Market Changes - The restaurant industry has experienced rapid growth over the past 25 years, but many operators are unaware of how they succeeded, as they were merely riding the wave of the industry [3] - The current market requires meticulous cultivation rather than relying on past successes [3] New Opportunities - The "silver economy" presents a significant opportunity as the aging population, particularly those born during the baby boom from 1963 to 1972, is becoming more affluent and health-conscious [6][8] - The integration of health and dining, as exemplified by the success of establishments like Dongjitang, which combines traditional Chinese medicine with modern dining experiences, is a promising direction [7][8] County Economy - A noticeable trend of reverse urbanization is emerging, with many young people returning to smaller cities, creating a demand for upgraded dining experiences in these areas [10][14] - Examples of successful transformations in county restaurants demonstrate that there is substantial potential for growth by applying urban restaurant strategies to smaller markets [12][13] Consumer Behavior - The demand for female-friendly dining experiences, as seen in the success of restaurants catering specifically to women, highlights the importance of addressing the true needs of niche markets [15] - The concept of "third spaces" for socializing and entertainment, as illustrated by the innovative approach of brands like Xingju meeting the demand for social environments, is gaining traction [18] Digital Assets - The importance of digital assets, such as online reviews and social media presence, is emphasized as a critical component of a restaurant's value and marketability [19] - Companies are encouraged to enhance their digital footprint to increase customer engagement and brand recognition [19] Conclusion - The restaurant industry must evolve by understanding market trends and consumer needs, leveraging new opportunities, and enhancing digital capabilities to thrive in a changing landscape [20]

拿着2018年的经验，打不赢2025年的商战。本文为中国餐饮营销专家、百亿增长操盘手申晨在"2025中国餐饮品牌节"上的演讲实录，红餐网整 编发布。 创业是条不归路，不下战场才不会输。 餐饮行业的老同志们如果再不提升自己的话，可能会在2025年告别这个舞台，因为市场一直在变，拿着2018年的经验，打不赢2025年的商战。 这几年，很多企业都出现了一些大问题，原因不是餐饮人不够努力，而是用老的经验无法解决新的问题。 那么，如今市场上到底有哪些变化？这些变化里面又藏着哪些餐饮生意机会？ 餐饮人，到底怎么抓住银发经济的红利？ 现在市场上的"红利期行业"已经不多了。什么叫红利期的行业？比如20年前开始的房地产，15年前开始的电商，10年前开始的微商，5年前开始的直播。 在这些行业里面发展就像坐电梯，很多人进了电梯后什么都没有干，依然能取得增长。餐饮行业同样如此，过去25年，中国餐饮行业发展迅猛，很多餐饮 人都不知道自己是怎么成功的，因为他只是坐上了一个名字叫"餐饮"的电梯。但现在，餐饮行业似乎已经不在红利期了，进入了需要精耕细作的时代。 对于不在红利期的行业，我建议关注两个点，一是"老行业结合新趋势"，二是"关注小人 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in consumer behavior from first-tier cities to lower-tier cities in China, highlighting the emergence of a new consumer class in third and fourth-tier cities as they gain economic independence and purchasing power [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Potential and Consumer Behavior - The consumption potential in third and fourth-tier cities is strong, with many businesses from first-tier cities entering these markets, leading to increased competition and higher prices for goods [3][5] - The income composition in these cities is diverse, with operating income accounting for 42%, property income for 35%, and transfer income for 23%, indicating a more varied economic base compared to first-tier cities [5][6] - The average mortgage-to-income ratio in lower-tier cities is only 28%, significantly lower than the 52% in first-tier cities, providing these consumers with more disposable income [5][6] Group 2: New Business Models and Marketing Strategies - A new commercial order is emerging in lower-tier cities, characterized by innovative business models such as "beauty salons + cafes," which attract consumers with high profit margins of up to 45% [11][12] - The rise of local influencers or "group leaders" in marketing has led to a high repurchase rate of 68%, showcasing a shift towards community-based marketing strategies [11][12] - Financial tools like "beauty loans" are becoming prevalent, with an average balance of 87,000 yuan, primarily used for beauty and jewelry purchases, indicating a shift in consumer financing [12][14] Group 3: Structural Risks and Challenges - The reliance on temporary income sources such as demolition compensation poses a risk, as these funds are typically exhausted within 5.3 years, leading to financial instability [16][18] - The consumer loan default rate in lower-tier cities has risen to 5.7%, indicating growing debt risks among consumers [16][18] - A significant talent gap exists in retail, with a shortage of 4.3 million professionals, which hampers service quality and market growth [16][18]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of county towns in China, highlighting the contrast between urban and rural consumption patterns and the impact of new consumer brands on these areas [2][3][11]. Group 1: County Towns and Consumption - County towns were historically viewed as symbols of poverty and backwardness compared to major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [2][3]. - The rise of new consumer brands in county towns reflects a desire among local youth to emulate urban lifestyles, leading to a rapid adoption of trendy products [7][9]. - The average number of tea shops in a county town exceeds that of major cities, indicating a shift in consumer behavior and preferences [10]. Group 2: Impact of Short Video Platforms - Short video platforms have significantly altered the consumption landscape in county towns, allowing local businesses to reach consumers more effectively [13][19]. - The integration of short video marketing has enabled new business ecosystems to emerge, with local restaurants and shops leveraging these platforms for promotion [19][20]. - The competition landscape in county towns differs from that in larger cities, as local businesses rely more on word-of-mouth and community ties rather than traditional review platforms [14][19]. Group 3: Cultural Perception and Aesthetics - The aesthetic appeal of county towns has gained attention on social media, reflecting a complex relationship between urban and rural identities [21][22]. - The perception of county towns as "others" continues to shape consumer behavior and brand strategies, with urban consumers often romanticizing rural life [21][22]. - The competition in the market hinges on understanding both the internet landscape and the unique characteristics of county towns [22].