以下文章来源于秦朔朋友圈 ，作者刘捷 秦朔朋友圈 . 秦朔朋友圈是由中国著名媒体人、财经观察家秦朔牵头创立的一个新媒体与专业服务品牌，包括微信公 众号、微博、视频节目、音频节目等。内容聚焦于经济、金融和商业领域，关注重点为全球和中国财经 商业热点、企业家精神、创新与发明创造、商业文明探索等。 来源丨 秦朔朋友圈（ ID：qspyq2015） 作者丨刘捷 图源丨Midjourney A小姐有阵子没来找我了。 在与他们的交流中，我发现小创业者们的困扰集中在三个问题上。 第一个问题，更多的客户在哪里？ 小创业者的目标客户群都不大，主要包括几类：一部分私域的高净值人群；几个私人关系维护的企业 或平台客户；某个局部地域的普通消费者。随着业务的拓展，很快客户基数就会遇到瓶颈，持续的获 客能力不足。 B先生致力于通过就医通道问题的解决，赢得向客户继续销售细胞、菌群等高客单价的产品和服务， 由于通道狭窄，潜在客户的数量增长缓慢。然后他希望增加其他社群和平台的合作，就像A小姐所做 的，但是尝试下来发现人群并不能精准地匹配。问题出在哪里？ 之前有一阵，隔三岔五要约我咖啡，作为一个通过做社群来从事美业和康养服务的小创业者，她一直 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese beauty industry is undergoing a transformation with a shift towards omnichannel strategies, where online and offline channels are evolving in response to changing consumer behaviors and technological advancements [1][2]. Industry Development Stages - The retail sector of the Chinese beauty industry has experienced three phases: 1. Pre-2016: Consumption development phase, with cosmetics retail underperforming compared to overall retail market. 2. 2017-2021: High growth phase, outperforming the overall retail market. 3. 2022 onwards: Rational return phase, with performance lagging due to consumer confidence issues [1][2][19]. Retail Channel Dynamics - The Chinese beauty market heavily relies on online channels, reaching a scale of 610 billion yuan with a year-on-year growth of 12.1%. Notably, Douyin has emerged as a leading platform with sales of 244.5 billion yuan, marking a 43.6% increase [2][26]. - Offline channels are facing challenges, with department stores and malls experiencing a year-on-year decline of 8%, and cosmetic stores down by 10%. However, there is a trend towards differentiation in offline retail, with cosmetic stores catering to refined needs and modern channels optimizing product layouts [2][37][41]. Consumer Behavior Trends - Consumer expectations are improving, with 58% willing to pay a premium for faster delivery. The beauty category ranks fifth in high premium consumption tendencies, indicating untapped consumer potential [1][2][25]. - A significant 77% of consumers prefer shopping in one-stop channels with comprehensive product offerings, highlighting the need for refined operational strategies [2][26]. Technological Integration - Technology and artificial intelligence are becoming crucial drivers in the beauty industry, with companies like L'Oréal and Shiseido implementing AI skin detection and health correlation technologies to enhance consumer shopping experiences [2][2]. Future Outlook - The overall direction for the Chinese beauty industry is towards omnichannel integration and intelligent upgrades, presenting both opportunities and challenges in the evolving market landscape [2][4].

Core Viewpoint - The integration of AI into consumer products is evolving from a technical novelty to a part of daily life, but the journey remains challenging and superficial in many areas [3][8][22]. Group 1: AI in Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) - Major FMCG companies are showcasing AI innovations, such as Yili's real-time AI supply chain system and Feihe's AI-driven safety and nutrition enhancements for infant formula [6][5]. - Unilever launched the "AI for Science" platform, which includes six AI models for product development and ingredient selection [6]. - PepsiCo's booth featured humanoid robots that engage with visitors, highlighting the entertainment aspect of AI in consumer interactions [6][8]. Group 2: Smart Glasses and Fashion - The AI glasses segment is gaining popularity, with products shifting towards lightweight and personalized designs to appeal to younger consumers [10][12]. - Alibaba's Quark AI glasses integrate various services, such as navigation and payment, enhancing user convenience [12]. - Despite the excitement, no domestic AI/AR glasses brand has achieved significant market success yet, indicating that the market is still in its infancy [16][22]. Group 3: AI in Sports and Fitness - AI fitness devices, like the "AI personal trainer mirror," are gaining traction, providing real-time feedback on exercise form [19]. - The introduction of consumer-grade exoskeletons, such as the VIATRIX, marks a significant step into the civilian market for AI-assisted physical activities [20]. - The beauty industry is also leveraging AI for personalized skincare solutions, as demonstrated by the AI skin analysis robot [20]. Group 4: AI in Content Creation and Office Efficiency - AI tools are enhancing workplace productivity, with features like automatic video editing and real-time translation [21]. - The "Giant AI Super Intelligent Entity" from Botao Technology is designed to interact with tourists, showcasing the potential of AI in the tourism sector [21]. Group 5: Future of AI in Consumer Experience - The relationship between AI and consumers is evolving beyond mere product purchases to include experiences, emotional value, and engagement [22]. - The 2025 WAIC event highlighted the ongoing transformation of AI from a background technology to a central element in consumer lifestyles [22].

Overview - The report analyzes the current state, trends, and future opportunities in the Chinese consumer goods industry based on a comprehensive review of publicly listed companies in 2023 [1][5] - Despite a general decline in market capitalization, leading companies continue to perform well, indicating a concentration of market power among top players [4][5] Industry Distribution - The consumer goods sector is characterized by a significant drop in market capitalization, with the total market value of A-share consumer goods companies at 13.9 trillion yuan, down 23.7% from 18.2 trillion yuan in 2021 [4][28] - The food, beverage, and alcohol sector leads with a market value of 6.5 trillion yuan, followed by home goods at 2.2 trillion yuan and the automotive sector at 1.7 trillion yuan [4][28] Revenue and Profit - The average annual compound growth rate for total revenue in the consumer goods sector from 2021 to 2023 is 6.5%, with total revenue reaching 8.6 trillion yuan in 2023 [4][29] - The food, beverage, and alcohol sector has the highest profitability, generating a total profit of 200 billion yuan in 2023 [4][33] - The jewelry, footwear, beauty, and catering sectors show weaker profitability, although the catering sector is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 [4][33] Regional Distribution - The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are key regions for consumer goods companies, with Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Jiangsu leading in performance [4][10] - Guangdong province tops the list with a net profit of 147.9 billion yuan, while Guizhou follows with 77.5 billion yuan [4][10] Market Capitalization Analysis - Companies with a market capitalization between 0-30 billion yuan account for 32% of the total, while those with over 1 trillion yuan represent only 3% [4][28] - The top three companies by market capitalization are Kweichow Moutai, BYD, and Midea Group, valued at 2,141.82 billion yuan, 636.08 billion yuan, and 486.68 billion yuan, respectively [4][28] Investment and Financing - In 2023, there were 657 investment events in the new consumer sector, with disclosed financing amounts around 35.39 billion yuan [4][28] - The investment and acquisition activities in the consumer sector have decreased, indicating a shift towards market-oriented mergers and acquisitions [4][28] Future Trends - The integration of digital technology is expected to reshape the development logic of consumer goods companies [4][5] - Opportunities for growth are anticipated in health-oriented consumer products, which are expected to become a focal point in the future [4][5]

Group 1 - The article highlights a growing trend among young entrepreneurs in China, particularly those born in the 1990s and 2000s, who are increasingly opening small businesses as a flexible and appealing career choice [1][2][4] - A significant portion of young respondents, 58.7%, believe that running a small shop offers more freedom, while 49.7% view it as a viable entrepreneurial option [1][4] - As of now, there are approximately 124 million registered individual businesses in China, providing employment for nearly 300 million people, indicating the importance of small shops in the current job market [3] Group 2 - The article discusses the low-cost nature of starting small businesses, particularly in the beauty industry, where young entrepreneurs like Chen Xi are opting for home-based operations to minimize expenses [5][10] - The beauty service market is experiencing significant growth, with a yearly increase of over 25% in the home beauty service sector, driven by the low overhead costs associated with home-based beauty shops [11] - The profitability of beauty services is highlighted, with profit margins for nail services reaching approximately 90%, showcasing the potential for high returns in this sector [17] Group 3 - The article contrasts the experiences of young entrepreneurs in different sectors, such as the mobile phone retail industry, where operators like Wang Hai face declining sales and increased competition from online platforms [24][36] - The mobile retail sector has seen a 14.7% year-on-year decline in the number of retail stores, indicating a challenging environment for traditional brick-and-mortar businesses [36] - Wang Hai's experience reflects a broader trend where mobile stores are struggling to adapt to changing consumer behaviors, with many shifting towards online shopping [33][34] Group 4 - The small bar industry, represented by Lin Yang's establishment, is also discussed, with the market size for small bars in China reaching approximately 148.78 billion yuan in 2023, expected to exceed 180 billion yuan by 2027 [48] - Lin Yang's approach emphasizes emotional consumption, where customers seek experiences rather than just products, aligning with the current trend of consumers valuing emotional connections [53][54] - The article concludes that the "small shop economy" is becoming a significant avenue for young people to pursue their entrepreneurial dreams, despite the challenges and uncertainties they face [60][61]

Core Viewpoint - The recent public disclosure of prepaid store lists and lease expiration dates in a large shopping mall in Hangzhou's West Lake District has sparked online discussions, with most netizens supporting the move to prevent consumer pitfalls in prepaid services [1][2]. Group 1: Public Disclosure of Prepaid Stores - The shopping mall has publicly listed all prepaid tenants, categorized by types such as educational training and beauty services, including details like store names, locations, and lease expiration dates [3][4]. - Consumers have expressed support for this initiative, citing previous experiences of being notified of store relocations shortly after making prepaid purchases [5]. Group 2: Impact on Businesses - Store representatives indicated that the public disclosure has had little to no impact on their operations, as many prepaid customers are long-term clients who trust the businesses [5]. - The staff from a sports training institution mentioned that they would not have agreed to the public listing if it were detrimental to their business [5]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The public listing of prepaid businesses appears to be a voluntary action by the shopping mall rather than a mandated regulation from the local business department [6]. - The local business department encourages malls to monitor prepaid practices to protect consumer rights but has not enforced any specific regulations regarding public disclosures [6]. Group 4: Consumer Precautions - Consumers are advised to verify business credentials through official channels before making prepaid purchases, and to be cautious of businesses with short operating periods or frequent promotions [7]. - It is recommended that consumers insist on written agreements detailing service content, refund policies, and liabilities, while also being wary of terms that favor the business [7].

Group 1: Core Insights - The new generation of consumers, raised in the internet and mobile internet era, emphasizes experience, authenticity, self-focus, and personalization, driving changes in travel, retail, beauty, and pet sectors [2][6][8] - The tourism consumption potential is continuously being released, with a focus on broad beneficiaries in the OTA platform sector, particularly in domestic travel and inbound tourism [6][7] - Retail is returning to consumer demand itself, with traditional retail showing differentiated performance across categories, and recommendations include Alibaba and Yonghui Supermarket [7][8] Group 2: Industry Recommendations - In the beauty and pet sectors, domestic brands are thriving, with significant growth rates of 20-30% or more in specific segments like skincare and pet food [8] - The bond market is experiencing wide fluctuations due to policy uncertainties, with U.S. Treasury yields showing a downward trend in early months and an overall increase in May [3][9] - The credit spread in the credit bond market has slightly increased, but the overall increase is manageable due to stable hard data from the U.S. economy [9][11] Group 3: Market Trends - The commodity market shows varied performance, with crude oil prices down by 12.12% over the past week, while gold prices increased by 1.87% [4] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of slowing down, with a surprising decrease in private sector employment in June, raising concerns about economic momentum [16][17] - The second-hand car market in China remains in a downturn, with the manager index at 42.3%, indicating a lack of demand and increased risks in transactions [19]

Group 1: Core Insights - The new generation of consumers, raised in the internet and mobile internet era, emphasizes experiential consumption, authenticity, and personalization, driving changes in travel, retail, beauty, and pet sectors [3][12] - The tourism sector is expected to continue its recovery, with domestic travel projected to reach 5.75 trillion yuan in 2024, a 17.1% increase year-on-year, and 56.15 billion domestic trips anticipated, marking a 14.8% growth [18][21] - The retail sector is returning to consumer demand, with traditional retail showing growth in essential goods and cultural consumption, while e-commerce platforms are focusing on optimizing consumer experiences [42][45] Group 2: Tourism Sector - Domestic tourism is recovering, with urban residents expected to make 43.7 billion trips in 2024, a 16.3% increase, and rural residents 12.45 billion trips, a 9.9% increase [18] - International travel is rebounding, with 1.23 billion outbound trips in 2024, a 41% increase, and inbound tourism expected to grow by 60.8% to 1.32 billion visitors [21][26] - OTA platforms like Ctrip and Tongcheng are benefiting from the recovery in travel demand and are expanding their inbound tourism services [27] Group 3: Retail Sector - The retail market is experiencing steady growth, with social retail sales expected to rise, and online retail growth slowing down as platforms focus on consumer needs [42][45] - Traditional retailers like Yonghui Supermarket are undergoing significant transformations to meet consumer demands, with a focus on quality and customer experience [57] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is adapting to changing tariff policies, with companies like Yiwu Market playing a crucial role in global supply chains [58][62] Group 4: Beauty and Pet Industries - The beauty and pet sectors are witnessing rapid growth, with domestic brands achieving revenue growth rates of 20-30% in niche markets [68][72] - The pet industry in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan in market size, reflecting the growing trend of pet ownership and related consumption [68] - Companies in the beauty sector, such as Aimeike, are expected to see growth due to lower base effects and strategic acquisitions [75]

Core Insights - A "down-to-earth" advertisement unexpectedly gained popularity, highlighting a rural girl's success in opening seven hotpot restaurants, reflecting significant changes in the business landscape [2][3] Group 1: Impact of Short Video and Digital Tools - The rise of short video platforms has enabled small businesses to break physical space limitations, allowing them to reach a national audience through engaging content [3][9] - The report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences indicates that digital technology is helping small merchants find new growth opportunities by combining offline personal connections with online reach [3][9] Group 2: Success Stories of Small Businesses - Guo Luncai, a rural girl from Sichuan, leveraged her personal story and real-time updates on her hotpot restaurant's journey to attract a large following, resulting in significant sales and rapid expansion [4][6] - Xiaoling, a live-streaming host, transformed a modest flower shop into a successful chain by showcasing local culture and engaging with customers through live broadcasts [6][8] Group 3: Structural Challenges and Solutions - The service industry faces a "cost disease" where rising costs cannot be offset by efficiency gains, particularly for small and micro enterprises [9][10] - Digital tools like live streaming are providing new solutions to this long-standing issue by allowing businesses to reach a larger audience without the constraints of physical location [9][10] Group 4: Transformation of Business Models - The shift from traditional business models to a digital-first approach is evident, with businesses now focusing on online validation before rapid expansion [15][20] - The integration of online and offline experiences is creating a seamless customer journey, enhancing the visibility and profitability of small shops [15][20] Group 5: Emotional Connection and Customer Engagement - Short videos are fostering emotional connections between businesses and consumers, transforming service consumption from mere functionality to identity and cultural recognition [17][19] - The transparency of operations through live streaming builds trust and encourages customer engagement, turning consumers into brand advocates [19][20] Group 6: Economic Trends and Future Outlook - The service sector's consumption share is projected to rise to 52% by 2030, with a growth rate of 9.2%, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior [20][21] - The digital transformation of small businesses is not only vital for their survival but also plays a crucial role in the broader economic transition [20][21]

Core Insights - The rise of the "beauty economy" and "beauty industry" presents significant opportunities for Liaoning to transform "beauty" into "value" [1] - The Fourth Chinese Beauty Industry Economic and Trade Exchange Event will be held in Shenyang on July 9-10, focusing on international cooperation and resource sharing [2] Group 1 - The event aims to explore Liaoning's historical roots in the beauty industry and establish it as a global hub for beauty and fashion [1] - Since 2021, Liaoning has hosted three similar events, resulting in over 20 domestic and international cooperation projects with a total signed amount of nearly 1.2 billion yuan [1] - The event will feature 11 themed activities, emphasizing resource sharing and economic trade discussions, including topics on digital transformation and AI technology in the beauty industry [2] Group 2 - Over 300 international guests and nearly 500 domestic beauty industry representatives are expected to attend the event [3] - The beauty trade exchange will gather around 100 quality exhibitors, with over 1,000 beauty-related businesses participating in discussions [3] - The event is projected to facilitate more than 15 domestic and international cooperation projects, with a signed amount exceeding 1 billion yuan [2]