1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by the geopolitical situation between the US and Iran. The conflict has led to significant fluctuations in commodity prices, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty. The end - conflict signals released by both sides have a certain impact on market sentiment, but the actual supply and demand fundamentals also play important roles in price trends [2][9][93]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. For example, in the metals industry, some metals are affected by supply disruptions in the Middle East, while others are influenced by changes in domestic production and demand. In the agricultural products industry, factors such as planting area, harvest progress, and downstream demand affect prices. In the energy - chemical industry, the conflict in the Middle East has a significant impact on the supply and cost of raw materials [24][70][93]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Selections - **Tin**: With the US and Iran expressing the willingness to end the conflict, market risk appetite has recovered, and tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term. Supply has improved significantly, and demand is gradually recovering. It is recommended to buy long positions [2][35]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and soda ash is oscillating downward. The short - term supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak, but the downward space is expected to be limited, with the SA605 contract referring to the range of 1150 - 1250 [3][117]. - **Rebar**: Raw materials are strong, supporting the steel price center. The supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [4][53]. - **Live Pigs**: Spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts. The short - term price may be boosted by second - fattening sentiment, but there is a possibility of further decline [5][74]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Asia - Pacific market is down, and the Q2 style tends to focus on fundamental verification. It is recommended to wait and see [6][8]. - **Precious Metals**: The leaders of the US and Iran have expressed the will to end the war, the US dollar has fallen, and precious metals have rebounded significantly. In the short term, gold may have a technical repair, and silver may also have a band - trading opportunity. Platinum and palladium are in a state of shock and consolidation [9][12]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Iran's intention to end the war has led to a rebound in copper prices. The supply - demand fundamentals have improved slightly, and the medium - and long - term copper supply - demand contradiction logic has not changed significantly. It is recommended to wait and see, with the main contract focusing on the pressure at 97000 - 98000 [14][18]. - **Alumina**: Warehouse receipts are continuously accumulating, and the market is running weakly. The industry is in a state of over - capacity, and the price is expected to fluctuate around the cost line. It is recommended to maintain a short - selling strategy at high prices [19][21]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of production cuts in the Middle East is fermenting, and the price is hitting the 25000 mark. The short - term core operating range is expected to be 24000 - 26000, and long positions are recommended to be held [22][24]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is strongly supported by the price of primary aluminum, and the upward and downward spaces are limited. The short - term price operating range is expected to be 23000 - 24500 [25][26]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices have rebounded, and spot transactions are average. The supply - demand cycle is weak, and the smelting cost will support the zinc price. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy on dips [27][30]. - **Tin**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, tin prices are expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to buy long positions [31][35]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the Indonesian export tax policy is still uncertain. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 134000 - 140000 [36][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strengthening, and the market is maintaining a strong - oscillating trend. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 14200 - 14800, and a mid - term low - buying strategy is recommended [38][41]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply expectations are uncertain, and the market has fallen significantly. The short - term market may adjust, and it is recommended to wait and see and conduct short - term range operations [42][45]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is oversupplied, and the futures are oscillating downward. It is recommended to wait and see [46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production control has not been achieved, and the futures are falling. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, and strategies such as short - selling at high prices or long - buying at low prices can be considered [48][51]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Raw material prices support the steel price center. Supply and demand are seasonally rising, and the steel price's upward drive mainly comes from the raw material side [52][53]. - **Iron Ore**: Short - term shipments have declined, and the supply - demand pattern has improved. The main contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the range of 780 - 830 [54][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Auction transactions have declined, and the market is affected by geopolitical risks. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1050 - 1250 [57][59]. - **Coke**: The spot price increase is about to be implemented, and the market is following the trend of coking coal. It is recommended to wait and see, with the 2605 contract referring to the range of 1600 - 1800 [60][63]. - **Silicon Iron**: It is necessary to pay attention to the change in settlement electricity prices, and the market is in a tight - balance state. It is recommended to conduct range operations in the range of 5800 - 6200 [64][65]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Production cuts have been implemented, and the cost support of manganese ore may weaken. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the range of 5700 - 6800 [67][69]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybean planting intention has been slightly increased, and the domestic soybean meal spot market is pessimistic. The future supply pressure will increase, and the soybean meal lacks effective support [70][72]. - **Live Pigs**: Similar to the analysis in the daily selection, spot support is limited, and capacity pressure suppresses the far - month contracts [73][74]. - **Corn**: The bottom support is strong, and the decline is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent policy release [75][77]. - **Sugar**: The spot trading is average, and the market is maintaining a high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [78][80]. - **Cotton**: The USDA report shows an increase in the US cotton planting area, and domestic downstream enterprises are cautious in restocking. It is necessary to focus on the actual orders of downstream enterprises, the change in the new - season planting area, and the weather in the main production areas [80][82]. - **Eggs**: Terminal sales are slow, and egg prices are generally falling. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation and a weak trend [83][84]. - **Oils**: Indonesia's plan to promote B50 in July has boosted the oil market. Palm oil may rise in the short term, soybean oil is affected by the increase in US soybean planting area, and rapeseed oil is following the international oil market and maintaining a wide - range oscillation [85][87]. - **Jujubes**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is expected to oscillate and fall to build a bottom. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 9500 [88][89]. - **Apples**: The Tomb - sweeping Festival stocking is less than expected, and the price is continuing to weaken. The 05 contract is supported by low inventory, and the 10 contract is affected by the weather expectation of the new - season flowering period [90][91]. 3.6 Energy - Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The US and Iran have sent signals to cool down the conflict, and oil prices are running weakly. The short - term may be in a weak - oscillation pattern, but the supply shortage still exists, and it is necessary to pay attention to the negotiation progress and the navigation situation of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait [92][93]. - **PX**: Affected by the geopolitical situation, PX is oscillating at a high level. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the overall supply - demand in April is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to wait and see [94][95]. - **PTA**: Similar to PX, it is oscillating at a high level. The 4 - month inventory is expected to accumulate, and the demand may drag down the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [96][97]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the restoration of the passage of the Strait of Hormuz and the cost transmission of downstream products [98]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply is expected to be tight in April, and the processing fee is expected to be strong. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA [99][101]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply will decrease significantly in the second quarter, and the inventory will be significantly reduced. It still has the potential to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [102]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to wait and see [103]. - **Styrene**: Similar to pure benzene, it is oscillating at a high level following the oil price. The supply - demand has weakened, but it is still relatively tight. It is recommended to take the same strategy as pure benzene [104][105]. - **LLDPE**: The market is falling, and the basis is strengthening. The supply is expected to shrink, and the price has support at the bottom. It is expected to oscillate in a wide range [106]. - **PP**: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to go long on the 09 contract on dips [107]. - **Methanol**: The market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to reduce long positions [108]. - **Caustic Soda**: The export expectation has been fulfilled, and the market has returned to the fundamentals. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [109][110]. - **PVC**: The chemical market sentiment has subsided, and the price is adjusting. The short - term may be weakly adjusted, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the actual production suspension rhythm of the devices [111][112]. - **Urea**: There is no strong unilateral driving force, and the price is running in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the downstream demand and policy dynamics, with the main contract referring to the range of 1830 - 1900 [113]. - **Soda Ash**: Cost support has weakened, and it is oscillating downward. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][117]. - **Glass**: Cost support has weakened, and it is approaching the previous low. It is recommended to hold short positions [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: The US and Iran have released signals to end the conflict, and rubber prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see, with the operating range expected to be 16000 - 17500 [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The situation in the Middle East is fluctuating, and BR is oscillating at a high level. It still has the potential to rise before the oil transportation in the Middle East is restored, but attention should be paid to the risk of a decline after a rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The off - season cargo - collection is under pressure, and the overall market is weakly oscillating. The 04 contract is oscillating widely around the spot price center, and the 06 contract is expected to oscillate widely following the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to operate in the range and pay attention to risks [123][125].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the easing of the Middle - East situation, global risk appetite continues to recover. In the short term, the domestic economy is better than expected, but due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Attention should be paid to the changes in the Middle - East geopolitical situation, the implementation of policies after the Two Sessions, and the changes in market sentiment [2][3]. - Different asset classes have different trends. The stock index fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds fluctuate in the short term, and cautious waiting is recommended; the black commodity sector rebounds in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the non - ferrous sector fluctuates weakly in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; the energy and chemical sector fluctuates greatly in the short term, and cautious long - positions are recommended; precious metals fluctuate greatly and rebound in the short term, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - finance - Overseas: Affected by new rumors of a cease - fire between the US and Iran, international oil prices declined in the short term, and the US dollar index and US bond yields declined but remained at relatively high levels. Global risk appetite increased overall. - Domestic: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, exports far exceeded expectations, and inflation continued to recover. The overall economic and inflation situation was better than expected. The government work report put forward the main expected development goals and fiscal and monetary policies for 2026, with the overall goals and policy intensity lower than in 2025 [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as military equipment, electricity, and trade, the domestic stock market rebounded significantly. In the short term, due to the intertwined geopolitical news in the Middle - East, the stock index fluctuates weakly and the volatility intensifies. After the US released signals of easing and cease - fire, the domestic stock index market recovered. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The precious metals market rebounded on Tuesday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 982.90 yuan/gram, up 0.37%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 17,245 yuan/kilogram, up 1.93%. Spot gold ended a nine - day losing streak and rose 1.54% to 4,474.31 US dollars/ounce; spot silver rose 2.8% to 71.05 US dollars/ounce. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended [4]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Steel**: On Tuesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets fluctuated weakly, and the trading volume was at a low level. The real demand is still weak, the steel inventory has peaked and declined, but the growth rate of the apparent consumption of the five major varieties has slowed down. After the important meeting, the output of the five major varieties of steel increased by 188,500 tons week - on - week, and the hot - metal output increased by nearly 69,000 tons. In the short term, the steel market will still follow the cost, and attention should be paid to the price adjustment risk after the cost drops [5][6]. - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. The rebound in crude oil prices boosted the ore price. The demand for iron ore is still resilient, and the problem of short - term supply - demand mismatch is gradually alleviated. It is expected that the room for further price increase of ore is limited, and attention should be paid to the short - term adjustment risk after the energy price weakens [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese rebounded; the futures prices showed a differentiated trend, with silicon iron being slightly stronger. The rebound in energy prices still supports the ferroalloy prices. The spot price of manganese ore remains firm. The disk prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are recommended to be treated with a bullish - biased shock mindset [7]. 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Middle - East situation. The spot TC of copper is close to - 70 US dollars/ton, a new low. By - product revenues such as sulfuric acid and precious metals make up for the smelting profit. The refined copper production growth rate is at a high level. The core contradiction lies in the mine end, and the copper mine is generally considered to be in short supply, but the probability of extreme shortage is not high. The domestic and foreign inventories continue to accumulate, and the downstream replenished stocks intensively at low prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the risk appetite recovered, and Shanghai aluminum rebounded. The easing of the Middle - East situation is actually bearish for aluminum, and the supply of aluminum in the Middle - East will increase, so the rebound strength of aluminum is weaker than that of other non - ferrous metals. The LME aluminum has fallen near the rising trend line. The year - on - year increase in domestic primary aluminum production from January to February is relatively large, and the pattern of "domestic weakness and foreign strength" may change temporarily [9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc ore processing fees in the southern and northern regions of China have changed. The domestic smelting capacity is still expanding, and the by - product revenues make up for the losses. The overseas smelting plants will resume production in 2026. The demand is not optimistic, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased seasonally [9]. - **Lead**: From January to February, the imports of refined lead and crude lead in China increased significantly. The domestic production of primary lead and secondary lead has recovered seasonally. The demand peak season has passed, and it is gradually entering the off - season. The domestic social inventory of primary lead has decreased [10]. - **Nickel**: The core contradiction lies in the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia in 2026 has dropped significantly to 260 million wet tons, and there is still room for improvement, but the decline compared with 2025 is basically a foregone conclusion. The supply of MHP is at risk of decline. The nickel price has support below, but the upside space is limited by high domestic and foreign inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The imports of tin ore from Myanmar and other sources have increased. The demand is not good overall, and the industry is significantly differentiated. The social inventory of tin ingots has decreased, while the LME inventory has increased [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 6.11%. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong, and the social inventory is continuously decreasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the support range, and long - positions can be established at low prices [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.17%. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high - level inventory accumulation, industrial silicon is priced close to the cost. Attention should be paid to the cost support below, and range - bound operations are recommended [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.17%. The polysilicon inventory continues to accumulate at a high level, and the spot price is falling. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously or profits should be taken in a timely manner [14][15]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol spot price index is 2676.38, up 32.04. The supply has tightened, and the supply - demand fundamentals have been repaired. The methanol price is still firm, but attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by geopolitical easing and downstream negative feedback [16]. - **PP**: The domestic polypropylene parking rate has increased, the upstream supply has shrunk, and the downstream demand has increased. The spot market shows signs of tightness, and it is expected that the market will maintain a strong pattern. The biggest uncertainty lies in the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply has decreased, the demand has increased, and the inventory has been depleted rapidly. It is expected that polyethylene will continue to run strongly, and geopolitical dynamics are the key variables affecting external supply [17]. - **Urea**: The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand shows a pattern of "weak agricultural demand and strong industrial demand". The policy guides the market, and the urea price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [18]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The stability of Sino - US soybean trade relations has been disturbed, and the export and sales data of high - priced US soybeans have deteriorated. The US biodiesel policy will be finalized soon, and the trading sentiment of US soybean oil is cautious [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal is decreasing rapidly, supporting the soybean meal basis. The supply of rapeseed meal is increasing, and it will adjust with soybean meal in the short term [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting the basis. The supply of rapeseed oil may increase, and it will be under pressure with soybean and palm oil [21]. - **Palm Oil**: The international crude oil is oscillating at a high level, and the support for vegetable oils from crude oil risk has weakened. The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased, and the production has decreased. The domestic palm oil import is slow, and the market trading is light [21]. - **Corn**: The corn price is adjusting within a narrow range. The sales progress of corn in the production areas has slowed down, and the inventory in ports and deep - processing enterprises is low. The acceptance of high - priced corn by downstream feed enterprises has decreased, and the possible rice bran auction in early April may have a negative impact on the corn price [22]. - **Pigs**: The pig production capacity is in the pain period of adjustment, the demand is improving marginally but is still in the off - season. The industry's production capacity reduction expectation is increasing. It is expected that the short - term futures and spot prices may continue to fall, and there are still risks in the futures market [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is significantly affected by the geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, with prices of various commodities fluctuating greatly. The market is constantly adjusting its expectations for the development of the war, and the uncertainty is high [2][3][4]. - Different industries have different supply - demand situations. Some industries are facing supply shortages due to the conflict, while others are affected by demand changes. For example, the energy and chemical industries are strongly affected by supply disruptions, while the agricultural and livestock industries are more affected by factors such as seasonal demand and production capacity [2][66][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Selections - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure on stainless steel has improved, and supply - demand is gradually recovering. The raw material cost is strongly supported, and the short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, with the main contract referring to the 14000 - 14600 range [2][38][40]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. The import reduction dominates the current market, but attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand and policy risks [3][106]. - **Rebar**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [4][50][51]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [5][69][70]. 3.2 Macro - finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market has experienced a significant correction, with the stock index futures following the decline. It is recommended to closely monitor the inflow of broad - based ETFs and wait for the stabilization opportunity [6][7][9]. - **Precious Metals**: The news of the conflict between the US and Iran has repeatedly aggravated market turmoil. The precious metals have rebounded after a sharp decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see for the situation to become clear [10][12][13]. 3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The situation between the US and Iran may ease, and the copper price has rebounded. The short - term copper price is in the adjustment stage, and the long - term multi - order layout opportunity may be provided by the short - term adjustment [14][17]. - **Alumina**: The speculative demand has increased, and the spot price has continued to rise. The current market is in a state of oversupply, and the short - term strategy is to maintain a short - selling idea at high prices [18][20]. - **Aluminum**: The expectation of the easing of the conflict between the US and Iran has increased, and the downward space of the aluminum price is limited. The short - term aluminum price will maintain a wide - range shock, and the long - term bullish logic still holds [21][23]. - **Zinc**: The social inventory has decreased, and the zinc price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term zinc price is under pressure, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable [26][29]. - **Tin**: Trump's easing of the threat to Iran has improved the market risk sentiment, and the tin price has rebounded at night. If the war is expected to end, long - orders can be considered [29][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the nickel price fluctuates widely. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound shock [34][37][38]. - **Stainless Steel**: The macro - pressure has improved, and the supply - demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - expectation is repeated, and the lithium carbonate price fluctuates greatly. The short - term is expected to be in a relatively strong range adjustment [41][44]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply exceeds demand, the spot price has fallen, and the futures are approaching the limit - down. It is recommended to wait and see [45][46][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The cost center has moved up, the spot price has risen, and the futures have oscillated upward. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices [47][49]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The steel price center has risen, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high. The supply and demand of steel are both increasing, and the inventory has entered the destocking cycle [50][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The macro - disturbance has intensified, and the iron - making production has accelerated. The short - term iron ore main contract is expected to be in a high - level shock [52][53]. - **Coking Coal**: Some coal types have risen, and the overseas energy commodities have fluctuated greatly. It is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices [55][57]. - **Coke**: The coke spot price has increased, and the cost has pushed up the increase expectation. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices [58][59]. - **Silicon Iron**: The geopolitical conflict continues, and the supply and demand of silicon iron are both increasing. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [60][61]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment is changeable, and the cost of manganese silicon has increased. The short - term price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [63][65]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The US soybeans are in a high - level shock, and the domestic spot price has fallen slightly. The short - term domestic soybean meal is expected to be in a high - level shock [66][68]. - **Pig**: The pressure of pig slaughter is large, and attention should be paid to the intensity of supply reduction. The futures and spot prices are expected to continue to bottom out, but the downward space is limited after the futures price falls below 10000 [69][70]. - **Corn**: Driven by the rise of starch, the corn price is in a high - level shock. The short - term rise of the corn price is restricted [71][73]. - **Sugar**: The spot price has increased, but the transaction is average. The short - term sugar futures are expected to maintain a high - level and relatively strong shock [74]. - **Cotton**: The market trading is stable, and the cotton price is adjusted within the range. The short - term cotton price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [77]. - **Egg**: The demand is boosted by stocking, and the egg price is stable and slightly strong. The short - term egg price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [80][81]. - **Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fluctuation of oil is intensified. Different types of oils have different market trends [82][84]. - **Jujube**: The supply exceeds demand, and the futures price is in a low - level range shock. The price is expected to be in the range of 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [85][86]. - **Apple**: The market sentiment is weak, and the futures price has fallen from a high level. The 05 contract is expected to maintain a relatively strong shock, and the 10 contract needs to pay attention to the weather during the flowering period [87][88]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump has released a signal of easing, and the oil price has significantly corrected. The short - term oil price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [90][91]. - **PX**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PX has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [92][93]. - **PTA**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and PTA has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to pay attention to the oil price trend [94][95]. - **Short - fiber**: It has limited self - driving force and follows the raw material price fluctuation. It is recommended to pay attention to the passage recovery of the Strait of Hormuz and the downstream cost transmission [96]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply is expected to be in short supply, and the supply - demand is expected to be tight. It is recommended to go long on the PR2605 call option with a light position [98][99]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Affected by the Middle - East conflict, the cost support is strong, and the destocking amplitude in the near - term is expected to increase. It is recommended to go long on the EG2605 call option with a light position [100]. - **Pure Benzene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and pure benzene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to exit the long - orders and wait and see [101][102]. - **Styrene**: There are signs of geopolitical easing, and styrene has adjusted with the oil price. It is recommended to follow the strategy of pure benzene [103][104]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is risk - free, and the transaction is cold. The short - term market is in a wide - range shock [105]. - **PP**: The upstream shutdown and production reduction have increased, and the 05 contract has significantly reduced inventory. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 5 - 9 positive spread [106]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation, the fluctuation of methanol is magnified. It is recommended to reduce the long - orders [3][106]. - **Caustic Soda**: The situation in the Middle - East has escalated, and the caustic soda price is running strongly. The short - term caustic soda price is expected to be strong [107][109]. - **PVC**: The geopolitical disturbance has brought export expectations, and the emotional fluctuation of PVC has been magnified. The short - term PVC price is passively pushed up [110][111]. - **Urea**: The situation in the Middle - East is tense, and the emotional fluctuation of urea has increased. It is recommended to take profit on the long - orders and exit in the short - term [112][114]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is in a downward trend at a high level, and the cost has boosted the sentiment. The soda ash has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see on the long - side and pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse spread [114][118]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume has continued to decline, and the cost has been boosted. It is recommended to wait and see [114][118]. - **Natural Rubber**: Trump has eased the threat to Iran, the market sentiment has eased, and the rubber price has stopped falling and rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [119][121]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Under the tense situation in the Middle - East, the cost support of BR is significantly enhanced, and BR is running strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of falling after the rise [121][123]. 3.7 Container Shipping to Europe - The geopolitical concern has increased, and the European line has significantly risen and then fallen during the session. It is recommended to wait for the market sentiment to cool down and pay attention to the long - order layout opportunity of the peak - season contract [123][124][126].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving up oil prices and strengthening the energy and chemical sectors, while the market is adjusting to these developments [1]. Group 1: Oil Market - The Middle East situation remains tense, with the US military striking Iranian oil facilities, leading to increased oil prices due to geopolitical risk premiums. However, the market has already priced in the current level of conflict, suggesting that oil prices may stabilize at high levels in the short term [2][13]. - As of March 5, domestic methanol production facilities operated at an average load of 77.36%, a decrease of 0.88% from the previous period but an increase of 5.72% year-on-year. Coastal methanol inventories stood at 1.4133 million tons, reflecting a 1.04% increase from February 26 and a 35.76% increase year-on-year [2][15]. Group 2: Shipping and Freight - The European shipping index (SCFI) reported a rise of $166 per TEU to $1618, indicating a potential increase in freight rates for the second half of March. However, the market is expected to return to seasonal pricing as geopolitical impacts on freight rates diminish [3][30]. - Maersk and MSC are adjusting their pricing strategies, with Maersk focusing on securing cargo amidst a traditional low season, while MSC has slightly increased rates [3][30]. Group 3: Stock Market - The US stock market experienced a pullback, with a total market turnover of 2.42 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 18.278 billion yuan, indicating a shift from expectation-driven to earnings-driven market dynamics as companies begin to disclose annual and quarterly reports [4][11]. - The market is expected to transition from a broad rally to a selective alpha phase, favoring industry leaders with strong earnings while weaker stocks may continue to struggle [4][11]. Group 4: International News - Japan plans to release 80 million barrels of oil from its reserves starting March 16 to mitigate rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East. This is the largest release since the establishment of its national oil reserve system in 1978 [7]. - The Japanese government aims to stabilize gasoline prices by providing subsidies to oil wholesalers, reflecting the country's heavy reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports [7]. Group 5: Domestic News - The State Council's food safety office reported a 99.37% compliance rate for major food products in China, indicating a stable improvement in food safety standards over the past four years [8].

Core Viewpoint - The current global market is dominated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the strong stance of Iran's new leadership threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz, leading to significant adjustments in oil supply forecasts and a surge in commodity prices [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Commodities - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly lowered its oil supply growth expectations, labeling the situation as the "largest supply disruption in history," which has resulted in oil prices soaring over 10% [1] - The geopolitical risks are not limited to energy but are also affecting agricultural products through trade routes for palm oil and fertilizers, exacerbating global inflation uncertainties [1] - The U.S. is reportedly planning to temporarily waive the Jones Act to increase domestic transportation capacity in response to rising oil prices [1] Group 2: Key Commodities and Market Reactions - Oil prices continue to rise, with the U.S. President indicating that military actions against Iran will not conclude soon, and the G7 energy ministers have not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves [2][12] - The European shipping index (EC) has increased by 3.07%, indicating challenges in maintaining pricing amid traditional low demand seasons, with Maersk and MSC adjusting their rates [3][29] - U.S. stock indices have declined, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan, as the focus shifts from broad market gains to selective investments in companies with strong earnings [3][10] Group 3: Financial and Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China is committed to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth, with recent operations indicating a focus on liquidity [7] - The U.S. oil inventory has decreased by 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026, reflecting ongoing supply constraints [13] - The market is expected to transition from a phase driven by expectations to one driven by actual earnings, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy support and improved performance [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market is affected by geopolitical factors, especially the conflict in the Middle East, which leads to significant fluctuations in various commodity prices. The market sentiment is complex, and different sectors show different trends. For example, the stock index shows a rebound trend, while the bond market is under pressure. In the commodity market, energy - related products are highly volatile, and agricultural products, metals, and other sectors also have their own characteristics due to different supply - demand relationships and external factors [20][24][131]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the stock index rebounded across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing above 4,100 points. The trading volume of the whole market reached 2.42 trillion yuan. The stock index futures also rose, but the trading volume and positions of each variety decreased. The market is expected to maintain an upward trend in the shock, and the trading strategy is to buy at dips [20][21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of treasury bond futures were mixed. The central bank net - injected 52 billion yuan of short - term liquidity, and the market capital was in a narrow - range fluctuation. The export data from January to February was strong, and the risk appetite of the market increased. In the short term, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view [24][25]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The short - term bullish factors have been fully reflected, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see. The spread between MRM09 can be considered to narrow [27][28]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production increase in India and Thailand is likely to be lower than expected, and the international sugar price is expected to be strong. Domestically, the supply is under pressure, but considering the low price and possible import policy tightening, the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The Middle East geopolitical conflict is the focus. The palm oil in Malaysia is expected to continue to reduce inventory in March, but the high inventory may remain. The domestic oil inventory is at a moderately high level. The oils are expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [37][38]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The USDA report is the same as last month, and the US corn price is stable. The demand for deep - processing increases, and the spot price of corn in the northeast and ports is strong. The 05 - contract corn is expected to fluctuate strongly, with limited upward space in the short term [40][43]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure is large, and the price fluctuates. The scale enterprises and retail farmers have sufficient supply, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate [45][46]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates at the bottom. The import volume decreases, and the oil mill still has profits. It is recommended to go long lightly at dips [48][51]. - **Eggs**: The enthusiasm for culling hens decreases, and the egg price rebounds slightly. It is recommended to short the June contract at high prices [52][54]. - **Apples**: The inventory decreases, and the price is firm. The May contract is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait and see [56][57]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The external market rises, and the fundamentals of cotton have certain support. It is recommended to build long positions at dips [60][61]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The black sector fluctuates weakly at night. The steel output increases slightly, and the demand recovers seasonally, but the inventory accumulates. The steel price is affected by overseas geopolitical friction and is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend [63][64]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price fluctuates greatly, mainly following the changes in crude oil. The fundamentals are secondary, and it is recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is disturbed again, and the price fluctuates. The geopolitical conflict affects the market sentiment, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The short - term driving force is strong, but the profit - loss ratio decreases. It is recommended to partially take profits on long positions [70][71]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The risk sentiment improves, and the prices of gold and silver are repaired. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously based on the 20 - day moving average [73][74]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum is expected to be bullish in the short term, and the palladium may be affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to go long cautiously at dips [76][77]. - **Copper**: The geopolitical risk disturbs, and the price fluctuates. It is recommended to buy lightly after the price stabilizes after a pull - back [78][81]. - **Alumina**: The price falls with the market sentiment, and the freight rate rises. It is expected to fluctuate after the price returns to rationality [83][85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The geopolitical conflict affects the supply, and the price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to go long at dips [86][90]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates widely with the aluminum price. It is recommended to go long at dips [91]. - **Zinc**: Be vigilant about the impact of capital on the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and buy at dips [92][94]. - **Lead**: It fluctuates within a range. It is recommended to buy at lows and sell at highs [95][97]. - **Nickel**: The macro factors dominate the market. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [99][100]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is supported by cost and follows the nickel price. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [103][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates within a range, with a price reference of (8000, 8900) [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and the price fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread opportunity [107][109]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates at a high level under macro influence. It is recommended to take a long - only approach [110][113]. - **Tin**: The uncertainty in the Middle East increases, and the price may fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and pay attention to the downstream consumption [113][116]. Shipping and Carbon Emissions - **Container Shipping**: The Middle East geopolitical situation cools down, and the freight rate of the mainstream shipping companies in the second half of March is gradually clear. It is recommended to wait and see [117][120]. - **Dry Bulk Freight**: The short - term capacity allocation may lead to the differentiation of the large and small ship markets. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of weather on global shipments in the second half of the year [122][124]. - **Carbon Emissions**: In the domestic carbon market, the short - term price increase is limited, and the medium - and long - term price center is expected to be higher. In the EU carbon market, the price is supported in the short term, but the long - term trend depends on multiple factors [125][128]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical information is repeated, and the oil price fluctuates sharply. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [131][132]. - **Asphalt**: The cost fluctuates under the geopolitical conflict. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to recover slowly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [134][135]. - **Fuel Oil**: Pay attention to the geopolitical fluctuation risk. The supply is expected to tighten, and the demand in Singapore is expected to increase. It is recommended to take profits on long positions in FU2605 and narrow the spread between LU05 and FU05 [136][138]. - **LPG**: It follows the oil price trend and fluctuates weakly [139][141]. - **Natural Gas**: The geopolitical risk is repeated, and the price fluctuates sharply. It is recommended to wait and see [142][144]. - **PX & PTA**: PX enters the maintenance season, and the supply is expected to shrink. It is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [146][147]. - **BZ & EB**: The listed price of the main refineries is lowered. The supply of benzene and styrene may be affected, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [149][150]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Iranian device stops, and the Middle East import source is affected. The supply - demand structure improves, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [151][152]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is good, but it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [153][154]. - **Bottle Chips**: The de - stocking amplitude in the first quarter is limited, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [155][156]. - **Propylene**: The supply and demand are supported, and it is necessary to prevent the risk of price decline [157][158]. - **Plastic PP**: The PE capacity utilization rate declines. It is recommended to wait and see for the L and PP main contracts and hold short positions for the spread between L2605 and PP2605 [159][161]. - **Caustic Soda**: It weakens, and it is recommended to wait and see [162][163]. - **PVC**: It fluctuates mainly. It is recommended to go long at lows and not chase the high [164][166]. - **Soda Ash**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to wait and see for the spread operation [167][169]. - **Glass**: The fluctuation is amplified, and it fluctuates widely with a weak direction. It is recommended to short at high prices [170][172]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely. It is expected to follow the decline of crude oil, and it is necessary to operate cautiously [173][174]. - **Urea**: It mainly follows the rise. The supply is at a high level, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously [176][178]. - **Pulp**: The high inventory suppresses the valuation. It is expected to fluctuate around the cost line, and it is recommended to sell the put option of SP2605 - P - 5200 [180][183]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The market is loose, and the paper price rebounds weakly. It is recommended to short at high prices [184][186]. - **Logs**: The external market price rises, and the spot price is stable and strong. It is recommended to go long at dips [187][189]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The price difference between the cup and the latex in Thailand continues to strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU and NR main contracts and sell the put option of RU2605 - 15750 at an appropriate time [190][194]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The production of high - cis butadiene rubber increases. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR main contract [195][197].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment for various varieties, with "cautiously bullish" for many including stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), bonds (TF, TS), crude oil, etc., and "cautiously bearish" for some like rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6] 2. Core View of the Report - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, there are policies like GDP growth expectations and a national - level merger fund, along with a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts increase commodity uncertainties. Different commodities have their own influencing factors and price trends. [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Chief Comment - The market focuses on China's policy support and global commodity fluctuations. Domestically, the NDRC expects GDP growth to exceed 6 trillion yuan this year and a national - level merger fund is set up. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. Internationally, geopolitical conflicts intensify commodity uncertainties, with energy and precious metals affected. [1] 3.2. Key Varieties Crude Oil - Due to the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, the shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is paralyzed, cutting off oil supply and pushing up crude - oil futures. There are a series of supply disruptions and storage crises, and some countries have cut production. [2][12] Gold - Short - term: The Fed's lower - than - expected interest - rate cut expectations and a stronger US dollar suppress precious metals. Long - term: Multiple factors like geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization support the upward trend of gold. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall trend with larger fluctuations. [3][18] Methanol - Methanol night - trading rose 5.43%. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin (methanol) plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventory is at a medium - high level historically and is rising. [4][13] 3.3. Variety Views - A table shows the possibility judgment of "cautiously bearish" or "cautiously bullish" for various varieties, but it is a possibility judgment rather than a definite one. [6] 3.4. Main News Focus of the Day International News - Israel warns about Iran's leadership change, threatening those involved in the election. [7] Domestic News - At a press conference, officials from the Ministry of Finance, the central bank, and the NDRC announced more active fiscal policies, interest - rate regulation, and the establishment of a national - level merger fund. The central bank will use multiple monetary policy tools. [7] Industry News - China's gold reserves increased for the 16th consecutive month in February. [7] 3.5. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the price, change amount, and change rate of various overseas market varieties such as the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. from March 5th to March 6th. [8] 3.6. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial Stock Indices - US stock indices fell, while domestic stock indices rebounded. As annual and first - quarter reports are released, the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, stock indices will return to a structural market. [9] Bonds - Bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank's net reverse - repurchase withdrawal this week did not significantly tighten the money market. Overseas factors and domestic policies support bond - futures prices in the short term. [10][11] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The Persian - Gulf conflict disrupts oil supply, leading to a significant increase in crude - oil futures prices. [12] Methanol - Methanol prices rose at night. The operating load of related plants decreased, and coastal inventory increased. [4][13] Rubber - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the price of crude oil, which in turn supports the price of rubber. The supply is seasonally low, and the demand is expected to recover after the holiday, so the rubber price is expected to be strong. [14] Polyolefins - Polyolefins continued the bullish trend on Friday. The increase in international crude - oil prices boosts polyolefins. [15] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures closed up, with inventory increasing after the holiday. Soda - ash futures rebounded, and the supply is high with inventory accumulation, facing inventory - digestion pressure. [16][17] Metals Precious Metals - Short - term suppression and long - term upward trend due to various factors such as US employment data, inflation, and de - dollarization. [3][18] Copper - Copper prices fell at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may fluctuate in a range. [19] Zinc - Zinc prices rose at night. Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and downstream demand is mixed. The price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. [20] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The conflict affects aluminum production and transportation in the Middle East, and the long - term low inventory and supply constraints support the price. [21] Black Metals Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply increased, and demand weakened in the short term. However, with the resumption of work, the demand is expected to improve, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts. [22] Agricultural Products Protein Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strong at night. Brazil's soybean production forecast was lowered, and supply disruptions in the Middle East supported US soybean prices, so the domestic protein - meal price is expected to be strongly volatile. [23] Oils and Fats - Oil prices continued to be strong at night. Malaysia's palm - oil inventory is expected to decline, and geopolitical risks and bio - fuel expectations support the price, which is expected to remain high and volatile. [24] Pigs - The pig market is weak, with sufficient supply and weak consumption. The short - term price is expected to continue to bottom out. [25] Shipping Index Container Shipping to Europe - The EC index fell on Friday. The SCFI European - line price rose slightly. Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East affect the shipping market, and the freight rate will enter a period of greater volatility. [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the unexpected decrease in US non - farm payrolls in February and the rise in the unemployment rate initially strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, but the Middle - East geopolitical war led to a sharp increase in energy prices and global inflation expectations, causing a significant decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI in February decreased, and the overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. The market trading logic currently focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks, and short - term market sentiment has cooled, with short - term stock indices likely to correct [4]. - Different asset classes have different trends: stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term; black metals, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals may oscillate in the short term; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term; and different industries within each asset class also have their own characteristics [4]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in February decreased by 92,000 unexpectedly, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The Middle - East geopolitical war led to reduced production in oil - producing countries, a sharp increase in energy prices, and a short - term rise in global inflation expectations, along with an increase in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and a significant decline in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic sentiment. The overall goals and policy intensity in the government work report for 2026 are lower than in 2025. - Asset trends: Stock indices may experience increased short - term volatility and are recommended for short - term cautious observation; treasury bonds may oscillate in the short term and are also recommended for cautious observation; black metals and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious observation; energy and chemical products have risen significantly in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions; precious metals may oscillate in the short term and are recommended for cautious long - positions [4]. Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as chemicals, pork, and agricultural products, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to the slowdown in economic sentiment and the focus on Middle - East geopolitical risks, short - term stock indices may correct. It is recommended for short - term cautious observation [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose on the night of last Friday. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 1,151.16 yuan/gram, up 0.89%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 21,692 yuan/kg, up 2.39%. Spot gold and silver also rose. However, the increase in energy prices and the rise in the US dollar index have a certain suppressing effect on precious metals. It is recommended for short - term cautious long - positions [6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. The real - world demand remains weak, and the inventory has exceeded the 2025 high. Supply will continue to remain high in the future. It is recommended to view the steel market with an interval - oscillation mindset in the short term [7][8]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore rebounded to varying degrees last Friday. The daily output of molten iron decreased due to the northern production restrictions during the Two Sessions. The current supply is in the off - season. It is recommended to view the iron ore price with an interval - oscillation mindset [8]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday, and the futures prices showed a strong trend. The export restrictions on South African manganese ore and the rebound in thermal coal prices boosted the silicon manganese market. It is recommended to view the futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese with a rebound mindset [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The GDP growth target for 2026 is set at 4.5 - 5%, indicating a rational and moderate - stimulus economic policy. The demand during the peak season needs to be verified. The refined copper production is at a record - high level, and the inventory has been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage but a short - term sufficiency [10]. - **Aluminum**: The overnight performance was weak on Friday, but the price recovered during the day. The conflict is expected to support the aluminum price, but the medium - term trend is relatively cautious due to the restart of European smelters and high domestic production [11]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate will increase in 2026. The domestic smelting output remains at a relatively high level, and overseas production will recover. The demand is not optimistic, and the inventory has increased [12]. - **Lead**: The global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern in 2026, and the price will continue to oscillate widely but be weak overall [12]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory is much higher than in previous years. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has decreased significantly in 2026. The nickel price has strong support at the bottom, but the upward momentum and space are limited [13]. - **Tin**: The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased seasonally. The supply will increase as the mines in Myanmar resume production. The demand is differentiated, and the price may continue to be weak in the short term [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply and demand are both strong, but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and cautious observation is recommended [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production has increased, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to the cost support [15][16]. - **Polysilicon**: The production in February decreased, and the inventory has been accumulating. The price is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - positions should be held cautiously [16]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The conflict in the Middle East has led to a substantial increase in oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices still have room to strengthen. However, attention should be paid to subsequent geopolitical developments, and short - term protection can be achieved through put options [17]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has followed the rise in oil prices. The release of floating storage of sanctioned oil may relieve the pressure on raw material prices. The inventory is at a relatively low level, providing short - term support. The short - term absolute price will continue to follow crude oil [17]. - **PX**: The price of PX has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The terminal start - up rate has rebounded, and the price is expected to continue to be strong in the short term [18]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA has followed the rise in crude oil prices. The position has increased significantly, but there is a risk of negative feedback in the later stage. Attention should be paid to terminal orders and downstream inventory [18]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol has followed the rise in oil prices, but the inventory is at a three - year high. The follow - up increase may be less than that of PTA and other varieties, and it is expected to be strong in the short term [18]. - **Short - fiber**: The price of short - fiber has followed the energy and chemical sector and is expected to remain strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the increase in peak - season orders [19][20]. - **Methanol**: The market is concerned about the supply shortage due to the decrease in imports. The domestic production enthusiasm is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of downstream shutdown [20]. - **PP**: Affected by downstream replenishment and supply concerns, the inventory has decreased rapidly. The price may fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments [20]. - **LLDPE**: The downstream demand has recovered, and the inventory has decreased. The cost support is strong, but attention should be paid to the abnormal fluctuations in crude oil caused by geopolitics [20]. - **Urea**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [21]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The geopolitical conflict may support the price of US soybeans, which are under pressure from the South American harvest [22]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal has broken through and strengthened with the rise of US soybeans, but the domestic high - inventory and weak - demand fundamentals may suppress the spot price. The supply of rapeseed will increase, and the price may fluctuate [22]. - **Oils and Fats**: The increase in oil prices has boosted the competitiveness of biodiesel, driving the price of oils and fats. Palm oil may have a phased bull market, and domestic soybean and rapeseed oils are expected to strengthen synchronously [23]. - **Corn**: The price increase of corn has slowed down. The supply may increase, which may limit the upside risk preference [24]. - **Pigs**: The overall supply - demand situation is loose, and the industry is expected to clear excess capacity. The price is expected to remain at the bottom in March [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to concerns about inflation, causing a decline in global risk appetite. The short - term market sentiment has cooled, and the stock index may experience a correction. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, domestic Two Sessions policies, and market sentiment. Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index may see increased volatility in the short term, government bonds may fluctuate in the short term, and different commodity sectors also show different trends [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: Geopolitical conflicts have pushed up oil prices, triggering inflation concerns. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have risen in the short term, and global risk appetite has declined. Domestic: The manufacturing PMI in February was 49%, a 0.3 - percentage point decrease from the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in economic prosperity. Policy: The government work report's 2026 development goals and fiscal and monetary policies are less aggressive than in 2025. Market trading is mainly focused on the Middle East geopolitical risks. In the short term, the stock index may correct, while government bonds may fluctuate. For commodities, black and non - ferrous metals may oscillate in the short term, energy and chemicals may rise significantly, and precious metals may oscillate. The recommended operation is to be cautious when going long, and to wait and see for black and non - ferrous metals [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as optoelectronic, power grid equipment, and education, the domestic stock market has risen in the short term. However, due to factors such as the slowdown in economic prosperity, less aggressive policies, and the impact of the Middle East geopolitical risks, the stock index may correct in the short term. It is recommended to be cautious when going long in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Thursday night. Affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, spot gold and silver closed down. Precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to be cautious when going long [5]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - In the peak season, copper demand needs verification. High sulfuric acid prices and relatively high gold and silver prices ensure smelter profits, leading to a record - high refined copper production in March (expected to reach 1.2 million tons). Domestic and foreign copper inventories have been accumulating, indicating a long - term supply shortage and a short - term sufficiency [6]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the Shanghai aluminum market fluctuated sharply. It rose overnight due to Bahrain Aluminum's supply suspension, and then declined in the afternoon due to the Iranian military's statement about the Strait of Hormuz and the lower - than - expected economic growth targets at the Two Sessions. The conflict is expected to support aluminum prices, but market sentiment remains volatile [7][8]. Zinc - The zinc fundamentals are weak. The short - term geopolitical conflict has supported zinc prices, but in the medium term, there is a risk of a breakdown in prices after the conflict eases. In 2026, zinc concentrate supply is expected to increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons. Domestic smelting capacity is expanding, and overseas production will recover. Demand is not optimistic, and inventory pressure has increased [8]. Lead - In 2026, the global refined lead market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus situation, with a larger surplus than in 2025. The lead price is expected to oscillate widely and trend downward. In the short and medium term, lead production is high, demand is weak, and inventory has been increasing [9]. Nickel - As of March 5, LME nickel inventory was 287,550 tons, much higher than in previous years. Indonesia's RKAB quota in 2026 has decreased significantly, but the first - quarter production will be normal. Nickel prices have strong support at the bottom but limited upward momentum [9]. Tin - The smelting start - up rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has declined seasonally but is still higher than in previous years and will recover after the Lantern Festival. The conflict in Myanmar has caused concerns about tin supply, but there is no actual impact. Demand is weak in various industries, and domestic and LME tin inventories have increased [10]. Carbonate Lithium - On Thursday, the carbonate lithium futures contract rose 3%, and the spot price also increased. The social inventory has been decreasing. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to wait for it to stabilize and then go long at a low price [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the industrial silicon futures contract rose 2.27%. In a situation of weak supply and demand, over - capacity, and high inventory, it is priced close to cost. It is recommended to operate within a range, paying attention to the cost support [12]. Polysilicon - On Thursday, the polysilicon futures contract fell 0.2%. Inventory has been accumulating at a high level, and the downstream silicon wafer price has declined rapidly. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and short - sellers should hold positions cautiously [12]. Energy and Chemicals Methanol - The inland methanol market has weakened, and the port basis has remained weak. Due to the geopolitical conflict, Iranian methanol plants have shut down, and shipping has been affected. The market is worried about a reduction in imports, and methanol prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [13]. PP - The geopolitical conflict has pushed up the cost of polypropylene and accelerated inventory reduction. The price has risen in the short term, but attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation to prevent a sharp decline [13]. LLDPE - The polyethylene market price has risen. After the Spring Festival, supply has increased, and demand is gradually rising. The increase in oil prices has pushed up the cost of PE, but there is a risk in the market [13]. Urea - The domestic urea market is weakening. After the Spring Festival, it was supported by agricultural demand, low inventory, and high tender prices. However, the release of commercial reserves may suppress the price in the short term. The price trend depends on the connection between industrial and agricultural demand [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean futures for May delivery fell 0.81%. The US soybean export sales and shipments data showed a mixed performance. The export sales decreased compared with the previous week and the four - week average, while the export shipments increased compared with the previous week [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean procurement for March by oil mills is basically completed. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound situation, with the top limited by high domestic inventory and weak demand and the bottom supported by the cost of US soybeans. The rapeseed meal market fluctuates with the soybean meal market. In the short term, rapeseed meal prices are expected to remain stable, but the supply pressure may increase as imported rapeseed arrives [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The oil mill opening rate has declined slightly. The soybean oil market is supported by oil prices but is facing supply - demand pressure. The rapeseed oil market is supported by oil prices and low inventory but may face supply pressure as Canadian rapeseed arrives in March [16]. Palm Oil - The BMD Malaysian palm oil futures rose 0.67%. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed up oil prices, which in turn has boosted palm oil prices. In addition, the risk of drought in Indonesia has increased, and the palm oil supply may be tight in the short term [17]. Corn - The corn price increase has slowed down. The prices in the northeast and northern ports are still strong, while the prices in the sales areas have stabilized. The increase in the arrival of imported barley and the expected release of policy - related grain sources may limit the upward movement of corn prices [17]. Pigs - The early - morning pig price in China was stable. The supply of pigs is abundant, and the demand is weak after the Spring Festival. Although there is support from the price - support mentality and the purchase - storage policy, the short - term rebound is limited. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of second - fattening and slaughterhouse inventory [18].