每周 一 景 ： 云南长江第一湾 金沙江 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【 宏观 】金银铜续创新高，人民币汇率破7 全球大类资产表现： 上周（2025.12.22-2025.12.26），全球大类资产价格中，主要经济体股市上涨。其中，日经225指数上涨2.5%，上证指数上涨1.9%，新兴市场股票指数上涨 1.7%，标普500指数上涨1.4%，发达市场股票指数上涨1.1%，恒生指数上涨0.5%。 大宗商品普遍上涨。其中，COMEX铜上涨6.7%，伦敦金现上涨4.4%，南华商品指数上涨4.0%，标普-高盛商品指数上涨1.6%，IPE布油期货上涨0.4%。 债市方面，10年期美债收益率及中债总全价指数较前一周维持不变，国内10Y国债期货价格上涨0.14%。 外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周回落0.7%，人民币兑美元升值0.5%，日元兑美元升值0.7%。 美国经济： 三季度GDP强劲增长。美国第三季度GDP同比增长2.33%，环比增长4.30%。工业总产值超预期。美国11月工业总产值同比增长2.29%，环比增长 0.22%。核心资本品订单回升。美国剔除飞机的非国防资本品订单10月环比增长0.52%。产能利用率微升。美国产 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 文/新浪财经上海站 十里 近日，疑似国泰海通首席分析师方奕在转发《跨年攻势已经开始|国泰海通策略周报》，并配发个人观 点称，其此前关于A股年内冲击并站稳4000点的判断已逐步兑现。方奕回顾表示，在11月23日市场情绪 偏悲观时，国泰海通即提出"进入击球区，要敢于步出先手棋"，并明确看好12月至次年2月的跨年行 情。他指出，10月站上4000点、年末站稳4000点、春节前走向新高度的路径正在被市场验证，当下不宜 犹豫。 从结构上看，方奕重点看好科技、券商与消费板块。他同时重申中长期判断称，2026年中国"转型牛"空 间广阔，对后市保持相对乐观。 在资产配置建议上，方奕回顾其于2024年底给出的2025年判断，即"新兴科技为主线、周期金融为黑 马"，并重点推荐创业板与恒生科技。展望2026年，他认为新兴科技主线逻辑延续，周期与消费关注转 型机会，大金融仍具配置价值，具体推荐方向包括A500与创业板50指数。 新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同 其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a slow bull market, with the effects of anti-involution policies becoming evident in the August PPI data, leading to continued increases in major broad-based indices in September [1][8] - The report suggests a shift towards growth-oriented investment strategies while maintaining a balanced overall style in fund allocation, with recommendations to consider gold and US stock-related ETFs [1][8] - Structural investment opportunities are highlighted, particularly in emerging technologies and financial sectors, with expectations for new highs in A/H share indices [1][8][13] Group 2 - The report notes that the manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8%, reflecting a seasonal increase, while the service sector shows a slight decline, indicating a mixed economic outlook [10][11] - The report emphasizes the importance of the lithium battery sector, which is benefiting from favorable policies and a surge in overseas demand for energy storage, contributing to strong performance in related industries [8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in the AI sector, with significant collaborations and advancements, suggesting continued growth potential in technology-related investments [8][10] Group 3 - The bond market is expected to enter a stabilization phase in October, with a likelihood of oscillation and potential recovery in certain bond types, despite a long-term weakening trend [17][20] - The report highlights the central bank's active role in maintaining liquidity and supporting the bond market, particularly during the quarter-end period [18][20] - The report suggests that the demand for high-grade, liquid credit bonds remains strong, with a focus on flexible duration products [17][20] Group 4 - The report indicates that the number of new funds launched in September reached the highest level since 2022, with a total fundraising amount of 167.34 billion, reflecting a recovery in the public fund market [56][60] - The report notes that equity funds accounted for a significant portion of new fund launches, indicating a growing investor interest in equity investments amid a recovering A-share market [56][60] - The report highlights the performance of various fund styles, with growth-oriented funds outperforming balanced and value funds, particularly in the TMT and midstream manufacturing sectors [48][49]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the balanced inflow of funds into the market, particularly into the CSI A500 ETF, indicating a positive sentiment towards broad-based investments [1] - In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with the average of the past three years for the same period, suggesting seasonal growth [1] - The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with A/H stock indices likely to reach new highs, presenting opportunities for investors despite current market adjustments [1] Group 2 - Structural investment opportunities remain focused on emerging technology, which is seen as a key driver, while new capital expenditure cycles in emerging industries are anticipated [1] - The financial sector, after experiencing adjustments, has returned to its mid-year levels, with potential for increased dividend returns, making it valuable for allocation-focused investors [1] - The increasing number of accounts in the CSI A500 ETF, which is three times that of its closest competitor, indicates a growing preference among investors for this broad-based product [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to develop a more sustainable "slow bull" pattern, with the Shanghai Composite Index projected to surpass 3700 points by 2025 due to economic transformation, systemic risk-free yield decline, and capital market reforms [1] Market Performance - Recent continuous rise in the A-share market reflects the restoration and enhancement of market confidence driven by policy and capital [3] - The Shanghai Composite Index's breakthrough of 3700 points is a direct manifestation of improved liquidity and accelerated capital inflow, closely related to wealth reallocation among residents and increased foreign investment [3][4] - High trading volumes and a significant increase in new account openings indicate a positive shift in market sentiment and strong support from incremental capital [3] Market Dynamics - The current market rally is not solely driven by sentiment but is based on the resonance of policy expectations and industrial trends [3] - Central government signals for stable growth and deepening capital market reforms are crucial for market momentum [3] - Themes such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and "anti-involution" are becoming focal points for market capital [3][5] Valuation and Future Outlook - There is a divergence in institutional attitudes towards the market, with concerns that the current market performance has outpaced fundamental valuations [4] - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the A-share market has reached 1.76, indicating limited room for further price increases without fundamental support [4] - Analysts believe that the market is transitioning from being policy-driven to being fundamentally driven, with a focus on high-quality economic development and capital market improvements [5] Sector Focus - Analysts highlight that growth sectors, particularly those related to the AI technology revolution and emerging industries, are expected to show high prosperity [7] - The "anti-involution" concept is gaining traction across various sectors, including traditional industries and new energy sectors like photovoltaics and lithium batteries [7] - Traditional industries, particularly those benefiting from overseas manufacturing recovery and domestic "anti-involution" policies, are also seen as promising investment opportunities [7]

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference was "Tide Rising in the East, New Quality Leading" with a significant turnout of over 5000 participants, including more than 200 speakers from various sectors [1][2] - The conference marked a record high in the number of sub-forums, attendees, and listed companies participating, indicating strong interest and engagement from the investment community [2] - The chairman of Guotai Junan Securities emphasized that investing in China is increasingly seen as a more certain opportunity due to government policies aimed at boosting confidence and economic growth [4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025 suggests continued positive policy adjustments, with potential for further fiscal and monetary easing [7] - The chief strategist highlighted a clear trend towards a "transformation bull market" in Chinese stocks, driven by improved investor sentiment and reduced impact from valuation contractions [8] - Investment opportunities are identified in emerging technologies, cyclical finance, and themes such as AI, domestic brands, and regional economies, reflecting a shift in focus from real estate to broader economic strength [9][10]

Group 1 - The conference held by Guotai Junan Securities on June 4-5, 2023, focused on the theme "Tide Rising in the East, New Quality Leading" and attracted over 200 speakers and nearly 1000 executives from listed companies, setting new records for participation and engagement [2][4] - Guotai Junan's Chairman Zhu Jian emphasized the importance of a series of incremental policies introduced since September 2022, which have significantly boosted social confidence and laid a solid foundation for achieving annual economic and social development goals [4] - The conference featured discussions on various hot topics, including new productive forces, consumption expansion, structural reforms, and the evolution of the Middle East situation, showcasing insights from prominent figures in finance and academia [4][8] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook for the second half of 2025 was a key focus, with Guotai Junan's macro chief analyst Liang Zhonghua discussing the restructuring of the global economic and monetary systems, highlighting risks related to the US dollar and potential inflation [6][8] - The strategy chief analyst Fang Yi presented a bullish outlook for the Chinese stock market, indicating a transition towards a "transformation bull" market driven by policy measures aimed at stabilizing asset prices and boosting demand [9] - The conference also included a variety of forums discussing European market investment prospects and wealth management strategies, featuring insights from international guests and renowned investors [9][10] Group 3 - The event utilized the Daohe APP to provide professional investors with live streaming and content related to mid-year investment strategies, enhancing engagement and accessibility for a broader audience [10] - The live broadcast of the conference received significant attention, with over 360,000 views, indicating strong interest in the insights shared during the event [10]