早盘速递 2025/11/20 5. 据SMM消息，华东地区某大中型再生铅冶炼企业因公司污水处理站MVR设施拆除后尚未完成改造、安装，不符合《危险废物 经营许可证管理办法》第五条第（四）款相关规定，当地生态环境厅决定不予许可危险废物经营许可证换证申请。 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、碳酸锂、工业硅、原油 夜盘表现 板块表现 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 板块涨跌幅（%） -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -3.50% -3.00% -2.50% -2.00% -1.50% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 非金属建材, 3.38% 贵金属, 29.01% 油脂油料, 9.93% 有色, 23.10% 软商品, 2.67% 煤焦钢矿, 12.74% 能源, 2.96% 化工, 11.02% 谷物, 1.22% 农副产品, 3.97% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 ...

● 本报记者陈露 2025年三季度，保险资金运用余额保持增长，险资继续增持权益类资产，固收类资产的配置占比有所下 降。金融监管总局最新数据显示，截至三季度末，人身险公司和财产险公司股票投资余额合计3.62万亿 元，规模和占比均较二季度末进一步提升；此外，人身险公司的债券配置占比环比下降，人身险公司和 财产险公司的银行存款配置规模和占比均环比下降。 权益投资规模和占比双提升 金融监管总局近日披露2025年三季度保险公司资金运用情况表，截至三季度末，保险公司资金运用余额 37.46万亿元，同比增长16.52%。 其中，人身险公司资金运用余额在保险行业占比约90%。截至三季度末，人身险公司资金运用余额 33.73万亿元，同比增长16.55%；财产险公司资金运用余额2.39万亿元，同比增长11.79%。 对于保险资金运用余额增长的原因，国金证券非银金融首席分析师舒思勤认为，权益市场表现较好使得 险企资产增值。此外，保险预定利率下调刺激消费者的投保需求提前释放，推动行业保费收入实现较好 增长。 三季度，人身险公司和财产险公司对股票的配置规模和比例均有所提升。金融监管总局数据显示，截至 三季度末，人身险公司股票投资余额3 ...

Group 1 - The upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays have led to increased market focus on the question of "holding cash or holding stocks," with recent ETF subscription and redemption data suggesting a preference for equities [1][2] - On September 26, a total of 222 billion yuan flowed into equity ETFs, marking the highest single-day net subscription in over five months, second only to the 292 billion yuan recorded on April 16 of the same year [3][5] - The inflow of funds was particularly strong in sectors such as semiconductors, Hong Kong stocks, the ChiNext board, and artificial intelligence [1][5] Group 2 - The net subscription amounts for various ETFs on September 26 included over 55 billion yuan for the China A500 ETFs, with individual funds like Huatai-PB and Fuguo's China A500 ETFs each exceeding 12 billion yuan in net subscriptions [4][5] - Other notable ETFs that attracted significant inflows included the E Fund ChiNext ETF with 14.14 billion yuan and the Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF with 7 billion yuan [5] - The overall trend indicates a shift from previous net outflows, as many investors entered the market to capitalize on perceived bargains during the market adjustment [5] Group 3 - The public fund issuance market has seen a resurgence, with new fund issuance in September reaching 1548.81 billion yuan, a significant increase of over 500 billion yuan compared to August, setting a new monthly record for the year [6][7] - Active equity funds have been particularly popular, with some funds experiencing high subscription rates, such as the招商均衡优选混合基金, which had a subscription confirmation rate of 56.67% despite a 50 billion yuan cap [7] - As of September 26, the average equity fund position was approximately 92.51%, indicating a strong commitment to equity investments as the fourth quarter approaches [7] Group 4 - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, sectors such as tourism, dining, and entertainment are expected to remain active due to upcoming holidays and promotional events, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumer spending [8] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are showing signs of recovery, with valuations in a reasonable range, which may attract more long-term global capital [8] - Investment opportunities are anticipated in cyclical sectors benefiting from economic recovery, midstream manufacturing, and AI technology driven by industry trends [8]

Core Viewpoint - Bond funds are experiencing significant growth in the public fund market, with a notable increase in new issuances and positive performance for the majority of these funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of December 19, bond funds accounted for approximately 70% of all new fund issuances this year, with nearly 90% of bond funds achieving positive returns [1]. - There are currently 5,882 bond funds in the market, with a total scale exceeding 8 trillion yuan, representing over 30% of the total public fund market [1]. - In December alone, 78 new bond funds have been established, with 20 additional funds from various management companies currently in the application process [1]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Among the 5,823 bond funds with performance data available, 5,086 funds, or 87.34%, reported positive returns this year [1]. - Seven funds achieved returns exceeding 10%, with the top three being 工银可转债债券 (12.92%), 天弘稳利定期开放A/B (12.18%), and another fund at 11.80% [1]. - Several other funds, including 蜂巢添汇纯债A/C and 诺德汇盈一年定开, also performed well with annual returns above 5% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to see increased demand for allocation as the year-end approaches, despite a quieter market since November due to concerns over funding market volatility [2]. - Short-term outlook remains optimistic for the bond market, supported by recent central bank actions, while the medium to long-term perspective suggests a continued need to lower social financing costs due to high domestic real interest rates [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - China assets are entering a favorable period, with both global and domestic allocation forces reaching a turning point [3] - Foreign capital is expected to return and focus on undervalued core assets, indicating that the value discovery of low-valued blue-chip stocks may just be beginning [3] - In a low-interest-rate environment, the allocation of financial assets may shift from fixed income to equity, as the worst phase of corporate earnings may have passed [4] Group 2: Sector Insights - The Hong Kong stock market remains more cost-effective compared to A-shares, with potential shifts towards high dividend and public utility stocks due to low government bond yields [5] - The military industry is showing signs of order recovery, with significant orders from listed companies, suggesting a sustainable recovery in the sector [8] - The robotics sector is still in its early development stage, and a rational investment approach of "buying on dips" is recommended [9] Group 3: Macro and Fixed Income - The central bank is unlikely to loosen monetary policy in the short term, as the financial data shows improvements but remains uncertain [13] - Convertible bonds are expected to face supply-demand challenges, and opportunities for investment in equity-like convertible bonds are recommended [14] - Bond yields are anticipated to decline in the second quarter as the economy recovers moderately, with a focus on domestic bond markets [15] Group 4: Asset Allocation - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividends as a defensive measure and technology as a growth driver is suggested, with the low volatility dividend index showing a yield of 7.42% [17]