国庆中秋长假即将来临，"持币还是持股"备受市场关注。从最近ETF申赎情况来看，资金似乎给出了答案。 在9月26日的震荡行情中，220多亿元资金借道权益类ETF入市，创下过去五个多月来的单日净申购额新高。从资金流向看，半导体、港股、创业板、人工 智能等方向强势吸金。 单日222亿元涌入ETF | | | 区间净申购额估算值(区间净 ... | 区间净申购额估算值(区间净 ... | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券名称 | > | [起始交易日期]2025-09-26 截止交易日期12025-09-26 | [起始交易日期]2025-09-01 [截止交易日期 2025-09-25 | | | | | [单位]亿元 | [单位]亿元 | | | 创业板ETF | > | 14.1435 | | -47.0571 | | A500ETF华泰柏瑞 | > | 12.5873 | | 20.8877 | | 中证A500ETF富国 | > | 12.3586 | | 29.4299 | | 机器人ETF | > | 8.6865 | | 33.3676 | | 创业板50E ...

Core Viewpoint - Bond funds are experiencing significant growth in the public fund market, with a notable increase in new issuances and positive performance for the majority of these funds [1][2]. Group 1: Market Activity - As of December 19, bond funds accounted for approximately 70% of all new fund issuances this year, with nearly 90% of bond funds achieving positive returns [1]. - There are currently 5,882 bond funds in the market, with a total scale exceeding 8 trillion yuan, representing over 30% of the total public fund market [1]. - In December alone, 78 new bond funds have been established, with 20 additional funds from various management companies currently in the application process [1]. Group 2: Performance Analysis - Among the 5,823 bond funds with performance data available, 5,086 funds, or 87.34%, reported positive returns this year [1]. - Seven funds achieved returns exceeding 10%, with the top three being 工银可转债债券 (12.92%), 天弘稳利定期开放A/B (12.18%), and another fund at 11.80% [1]. - Several other funds, including 蜂巢添汇纯债A/C and 诺德汇盈一年定开, also performed well with annual returns above 5% [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The bond market is expected to see increased demand for allocation as the year-end approaches, despite a quieter market since November due to concerns over funding market volatility [2]. - Short-term outlook remains optimistic for the bond market, supported by recent central bank actions, while the medium to long-term perspective suggests a continued need to lower social financing costs due to high domestic real interest rates [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - China assets are entering a favorable period, with both global and domestic allocation forces reaching a turning point [3] - Foreign capital is expected to return and focus on undervalued core assets, indicating that the value discovery of low-valued blue-chip stocks may just be beginning [3] - In a low-interest-rate environment, the allocation of financial assets may shift from fixed income to equity, as the worst phase of corporate earnings may have passed [4] Group 2: Sector Insights - The Hong Kong stock market remains more cost-effective compared to A-shares, with potential shifts towards high dividend and public utility stocks due to low government bond yields [5] - The military industry is showing signs of order recovery, with significant orders from listed companies, suggesting a sustainable recovery in the sector [8] - The robotics sector is still in its early development stage, and a rational investment approach of "buying on dips" is recommended [9] Group 3: Macro and Fixed Income - The central bank is unlikely to loosen monetary policy in the short term, as the financial data shows improvements but remains uncertain [13] - Convertible bonds are expected to face supply-demand challenges, and opportunities for investment in equity-like convertible bonds are recommended [14] - Bond yields are anticipated to decline in the second quarter as the economy recovers moderately, with a focus on domestic bond markets [15] Group 4: Asset Allocation - A "barbell strategy" focusing on dividends as a defensive measure and technology as a growth driver is suggested, with the low volatility dividend index showing a yield of 7.42% [17]