来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（卢伊 记者 徐蔚）1月10日，中航证券首席经济学家董忠云在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上发表主旨演讲时表示，2026年中国的 发展势头将愈发强劲。 上证报中国证券网讯（卢伊 记者 徐蔚）1月10日，中航证券首席经济学家董忠云在2026年中国首席经济学家论坛年会上发表主旨演讲时表示，2026年中国的 发展势头将愈发强劲。 在董忠云看来，"十五五"规划建议的核心关键词是内需、科技、开放，具体体现为建设全国统一大市场、以超常规手段聚焦科技突破、推进制度性开放。 在阐述扩大内需的必要性时，他强调，中国必须加快建设全国统一大市场，畅通国际国内双循环，培育强大的内需市场，增强极端情况下的经济韧性。 开放方面，董忠云表示，中国坚持制度性开放，持续扩大高水平对外开放，这既是融入全球经济的需要，也是展现大国担当的体现。他指出，在全球政经格 局变动的背景下，资金始终流向安全稳定、潜力巨大的大国，2026年，部分小国面临的压力可能进一步增大，而中国将成为全球资金的重要"避风港"，为资 本市场提供坚实支撑。 在董忠云看来，"十五五"规划建议的核心关键词是内需、科技、开放，具体体 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of developing new energy storage systems in Guangdong Province, highlighting the need to address supply-demand imbalances and enhance market mechanisms to support sustainable growth in the industry [2][3][4]. Group 1: Current State of the New Energy Storage Industry in Guangdong - Guangdong Province is experiencing rapid growth in its new energy storage industry, with projected revenues of approximately 400 billion yuan in 2024 and a 114% increase in installed capacity [4][6]. - Despite the growth in supply, the actual utilization hours of connected projects have decreased by 8.68%, indicating a mismatch between supply expansion and market absorption [4][8]. - The province has a well-established industrial chain, transitioning from consumer electronics batteries to energy storage batteries, with significant export growth, accounting for 26.4% of the national total [5][6]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Industry - The industry faces issues such as intense competition, unclear profit models, and insufficient local absorption capacity, leading to a disconnect between manufacturing and market demand [3][7]. - In 2024, Guangdong's new energy storage installed capacity is expected to be only 3.52 GW, ranking ninth nationally, which highlights the limited local market absorption compared to supply [7][8]. - External trade pressures, including stricter compliance requirements in the EU, have increased uncertainties in export markets, prompting some leading companies to establish overseas production facilities [9][10]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - To resolve the supply-demand mismatch, the article suggests enhancing application scenarios and market mechanisms, focusing on diversifying and scaling up demand to stabilize long-term revenue expectations [14][15]. - It emphasizes the need for technological innovation and safety standards to improve supply quality and economic viability, including the development of next-generation battery technologies [17][18]. - The article advocates for a coordinated regional approach to optimize the deployment of energy storage resources, particularly in high-demand areas like the Pearl River Delta [18][19].

然而，新型储能产业仍面临"内卷式"恶性竞争、盈利模式不清晰等问题，亟需通过扩大市场有效需求、 优化国内价值链布局与深化供需匹配等举措，化解制造端产能压力，激发产业体系的内生增长动力。广 东省作为全国最早布局新型储能产业的省份之一，具备较完整的产业链体系，近年来在政产学研协作下 发展成效显著。但同时，产业扩张与市场应用之间的矛盾日益突出，供给增长快于市场吸收能力。未来 应把握产业转型升级窗口期，加快储能电站规模化应用，精准衔接制造端与需求端，进一步巩固广东在 全国新型储能产业链中的引领优势，为全国储能高质量、可持续发展提供可复制、可推广的经验。 一、当前广东省新型储能产业面临供需失衡 广东省持续发力支持新型储能产业发展，"十四五"期间推动产业规模实现跨越式增长，但受限于市场波 动和国内大幅扩产等因素影响，产业供给端压力不断加剧。从产业规模看，2024年广东全省新型储能产 业营业收入约4000亿元，同年本地新型储能装机规模增长114%，扩张态势强劲。与之形成鲜明反差的 是，已并网项目的实际等效利用小时下滑8.68%，表明供给扩张与市场化应用之间出现了明显错配，成 为制约广东省新型储能产业高质量发展的核心矛盾。 （ ...

Core Insights - Weihai City aims to enhance its maritime productivity and growth by leveraging its coastal location, with significant increases projected in passenger and cargo throughput by 2025 compared to 2020 [1][2] Group 1: Port and Shipping Development - By 2025, Weihai's port is expected to handle 1.373 million passengers, 52.9 million tons of cargo, and 152,000 TEUs, representing growth of 178%, 37%, and 24.3% respectively from 2020 [1] - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, Weihai will open 7 new domestic and international shipping routes, enhancing connectivity with 16 cities across 5 provinces in China and 14 cities in 5 countries including Japan and South Korea [1] - The Weihai-Qingdao domestic route will operate up to 14 sailings per week, making it the most frequent public domestic route in Northern China, while the China-South Korea route will have 21 sailings per week [1] Group 2: Port Infrastructure and Upgrades - The 14th Five-Year Plan includes the completion of 5 port projects, enhancing the functionality of the Weihai Bay Port area [2] - Currently, Weihai has 77 commercial and specialized port berths, with 34 berths capable of handling vessels over 10,000 tons, accommodating various cargo types [2] Group 3: Integration of Transportation and Tourism - The city has introduced guidelines for the operation of leisure tourism vessels and management of passenger ship docking stations, standardizing requirements for the industry [2] - New tourism routes have been established, including Weihai-Maotoushan and Liugong Island-Jiming Island, contributing to a comprehensive tourism framework that integrates land and sea travel [2]

Group 1 - The event "Setting Sail Together for a Win-Win Future" was successfully held in Shenzhen, aiming to build a bridge for government-enterprise cooperation and provide comprehensive support for companies going abroad [1][4] - Approximately 100 attendees included industry experts, business representatives, and officials from various sectors such as technology, finance, and agriculture [1][4] - The event featured discussions on cross-border e-commerce and policy guidance for expanding into Southeast Asian markets, highlighting the potential of digital trade and the importance of international market expansion [4][5] Group 2 - The "Asia Trade Pavilion Enterprise Going Abroad Service Platform" was launched, leveraging overseas resources to provide one-stop services including policy consultation, legal compliance, and resource matching for companies [5] - Plans to establish an "Enterprise Going Abroad Headquarters Base" in Meilin Street were announced, aimed at attracting international businesses and providing comprehensive support from overseas inspections to logistics and marketing [6] - Meilin Street is positioned as a key area in the Futian District with a strong industrial foundation, housing 26 listed companies and 222 national high-tech enterprises, focusing on optimizing the business environment to attract foreign investment [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the proactive approach of the Bao'an District Business Bureau in addressing the needs of enterprises, focusing on market expansion, order stabilization, and transformation support [1][2][7] - The Bureau has implemented a series of practical measures to enhance the business environment, including direct engagement with enterprises and the establishment of a service-oriented team [2][4] - Bao'an District's retail sales from January to April increased by 7.6% year-on-year, with significant growth in automotive sales (13.1%) and online retail (66.8%) [1][3] Group 2 - The "New Consumption Season" event highlighted 25 enterprises recognized as "Bao'an Quality Products," showcasing a blend of traditional and modern industries [3][4] - The Bureau has launched initiatives to stimulate consumption, including a 25 million yuan investment in consumer subsidies and collaboration with platforms like JD.com and Meituan [3][4] - The Bureau is facilitating the transition of foreign trade enterprises to domestic sales, with over 350 companies participating in promotional activities [4][6] Group 3 - The Bureau organized participation in international trade fairs, resulting in over 660 cooperation intentions worth approximately 330 million yuan [5][6] - There is a strategic partnership with the Guangzhou International Exhibition Center to enhance exhibition resources and promote Shenzhen's exhibition brand [6][7] - The Bureau aims to continue improving services for enterprises, focusing on market expansion and digital trade transformation [7]

Core Points - The 7th China Western International Investment and Trade Fair (West Expo) will be held in Chongqing from May 22 to 25, with Thailand as the guest country, Sichuan Province as the permanent guest province, and Hong Kong as the newly established guest city [1][2] - The theme of this year's West Expo is "New West, New Manufacturing, New Services," featuring exhibition displays and thematic activities, with an expected exhibition area of 110,000 square meters and participation from 972 enterprises from 39 countries and regions [1][2] Group 1 - The West Expo aims to stabilize foreign investment and trade, promote consumption, and enhance its role as a platform for investment promotion, trade cooperation, and consumption stimulation [2] - The event will include 29 thematic activities, such as foreign investment activities and international economic and trade activities, to guide foreign capital retention and expansion [2] - Thailand will showcase its unique products, including Thai cuisine, cosmetics, agricultural products, and tourism resources, while Dutch brands will also make their debut at the fair [2] Group 2 - The West Expo has played a significant role in promoting the development and opening up of the western region, integrating into both domestic and international dual circulation, and participating in the Belt and Road Initiative [3] - The event is expected to facilitate high-quality development and high-level opening up in the western region, serving as an important platform for collaboration [3]

Core Viewpoint - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is a strategic move to enhance consumption potential and promote high-level opening-up in China, injecting new momentum into the dual circulation of international and domestic markets [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Optimization - The recent notification from the Ministry of Commerce and other departments introduces eight policy measures aimed at expanding the number of tax refund stores, enriching the variety of tax refund products, and improving the service level of departure tax refunds [1][2]. - The departure tax refund policy is seen as a key measure to enhance the shopping experience for foreign travelers, addressing previous issues such as limited refund stores and product choices [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The optimization of the departure tax refund policy is expected to significantly boost inbound consumption, with a projected total expenditure of inbound travelers reaching $94.2 billion in 2024, reflecting a 77.8% increase [2]. - The departure tax refund effectively acts as a discount for foreign travelers, with a general tax refund rate of 11%, which can lower shopping costs and stimulate consumer enthusiasm [2]. Group 3: International Relations and Cultural Exchange - The optimized departure tax refund policy serves as an important link in promoting high-level opening-up and facilitating the dual circulation of international and domestic markets [3]. - By attracting more foreign visitors to shop and travel in China, the policy not only promotes economic exchanges but also helps to showcase Chinese culture and products globally [3]. Group 4: Implementation and Collaboration - Successful implementation of the policy requires collaboration among various stakeholders, with the Ministry of Commerce and related departments urged to accelerate policy execution and establish effective working mechanisms [3]. - Local governments are encouraged to create attractive shopping environments for foreign travelers, enhancing their experience and showcasing the charm of China [3].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is optimizing the departure tax refund policy to enhance inbound consumption and improve the shopping experience for foreign travelers, marking the 10th anniversary of the policy's implementation in China [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Background and Objectives - The departure tax refund policy allows foreign travelers to reclaim VAT on purchases made in designated stores upon leaving the country, aligning with practices in over 50 countries [2]. - The initiative is part of the broader strategy to implement the decisions made during the 20th National Congress, aiming to enhance the convenience of life for foreign visitors [3]. - In 2024, inbound traveler spending is projected to reach $94.2 billion, reflecting a 77.8% increase, indicating significant potential for growth in inbound consumption [3]. Group 2: Key Measures in the Notification - The notification outlines eight policy measures to address issues such as the limited number of tax refund stores and the need for a wider variety of products [2][5]. - Key highlights include expanding the number of tax refund stores in high-traffic areas, lowering the minimum purchase amount for refunds from 500 yuan to 200 yuan, and enhancing the overall service quality for tax refunds [5][6]. - The government aims to improve the accessibility of tax refund stores and increase the range of domestic products available for tax refunds, thereby promoting local brands [5][6]. Group 3: Expected Outcomes - The optimized policy is expected to stimulate consumption, enhance the effectiveness of the tax refund system, and contribute to the growth of the tourism sector [4][6]. - The initiative is also seen as a means to facilitate high-level opening up and promote the dual circulation of international and domestic markets [4]. - The five designated international consumption center cities (Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, and Chongqing) are anticipated to see a doubling in the number of inbound foreign visitors in 2024 compared to the previous year [6].