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地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:扬州
Lian He Zi Xin· 2026-01-28 01:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yangzhou has obvious location advantages, convenient transportation, and rich tourism resources. Its economic aggregate and per - capita GDP are at the middle level in Jiangsu Province, with a continuous net inflow of population and a good urbanization level. The industrial development plan is clear, and relevant regional coordinated development policies will boost future development. In 2024, its general public budget revenue was of good quality, but the fiscal self - sufficiency ability was average. The overall debt burden was at the middle level among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu [4][5]. - The overall economic development level of Yangzhou's districts (counties, cities) is relatively high, with a differentiated and characteristic industrial pattern. Most districts (counties, cities) saw an increase in fiscal strength in 2024, but the government - funded revenue was under pressure due to real - estate market regulation. The government debt balance of each district (county, city) increased at the end of 2024, and the overall debt burden was at a low level. The government at all levels strengthened debt monitoring and management [4]. - There are many debt - issuing urban investment enterprises in Yangzhou, mainly at the district - county level, with AA and AA + as the main credit ratings. In 2024, the net bond financing of these enterprises turned negative, and the bond issuance scale decreased year - on - year. Except for Baoying County, the debt burden of urban investment enterprises in other regions was relatively heavy, and some areas faced short - term debt repayment pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Yangzhou's Economic and Fiscal Strength - **Location and Resources**: Yangzhou is located in central Jiangsu, with obvious location advantages and convenient transportation. It is rich in tourism resources, with a large number of A - level scenic spots in the province. It has built a modern transportation network integrating railways, highways, waterways, and aviation [5]. - **Population and Urbanization**: At the end of 2024, Yangzhou's permanent population was 4.5868 million, with a net inflow and a permanent - population urbanization rate of 73.5%, close to the provincial average [8]. - **Economic Aggregate and Per - capita GDP**: In 2024, Yangzhou's GDP was 780.964 billion yuan, ranking 7th in Jiangsu, with a growth rate of 6.0%, higher than the provincial average. The per - capita GDP was 170,300 yuan, ranking 6th in the province. From January to September 2025, the GDP was 592.515 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.5% [9]. - **Industrial Development**: High - end equipment is a traditional advantageous industry, and the aviation industry is a key strategic emerging industry. The "613" industrial system has been established. From 2022 - 2024, fixed - asset investment continued to grow, but the growth rate declined in 2024 due to the decrease in real - estate development investment [10][11]. - **Regional Policy Support**: Since 2014, a series of policies have been introduced to promote Yangzhou's integration into regional development, including the construction of infrastructure and the upgrading of leading industries [15]. - **Fiscal Strength and Debt**: In 2024, Yangzhou's general public budget revenue increased, with a high proportion of tax revenue, but the fiscal self - sufficiency ability was average. The overall debt burden was at the middle level among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu [18][21]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Yangzhou's Districts (Counties, Cities) - **Economic Strength** - **Regional Planning**: Yangzhou is planned according to the "One Area, Two Centers, One Belt, One Axis" urban spatial structure, promoting coordinated development among different regions [25]. - **Industrial Layout**: The six major leading industrial clusters' output value increased by 4.8% in 2024, driving industrial economic growth. Each district and county has formed a differentiated development pattern based on its own advantages [28]. - **Economic Development**: Hanjiang and Jiangdu Districts have relatively strong overall economic strength, and Yizheng City has the highest per - capita GDP [24]. - **Fiscal Strength and Debt** - **Fiscal Revenue**: In 2024, most districts (counties, cities) saw an increase in fiscal strength, with a high proportion of tax revenue. The government - funded revenue was under pressure, and the comprehensive financial resources varied in scale and structure [34]. - **Debt Situation**: At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each district (county, city) increased, with a relatively low overall debt - to - GDP ratio. The debt - to - revenue ratio varied, but was still lower than the provincial level. The city and districts (counties, cities) have strengthened debt management [41]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Yangzhou's Urban Investment Enterprises - **Enterprise Overview**: There are many debt - issuing urban investment enterprises in Yangzhou, mainly at the district - county level, with AA and AA + as the main credit ratings. Since 2024, only one enterprise has had a credit - rating upgrade [49]. - **Bond Issuance**: In 2024, the bond issuance scale of debt - issuing urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, and the net bond financing turned negative. Except for the city - level enterprises, the net bond financing of each district (county, city) was negative [51]. - **Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis** - **Debt Scale**: At the end of 2024, the total debt of debt - issuing urban investment enterprises increased, with Hanjiang, Yizheng, the city - level, and Guangling Districts having a relatively high proportion. Except for Yizheng, the debt scale of other regions increased [56]. - **Debt Burden**: Baoying County has a relatively light debt burden, while the city - level and other districts (counties) have a relatively heavy debt burden [56]. - **Bond Maturity Pressure**: In the next year, the immediate repayment pressure of debt - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hanjiang and Yizheng Districts is relatively large [60]. - **Short - Term Debt Repayment**: At the end of 2024, the coverage ratio of monetary funds to short - term debt was less than 0.50 times, indicating short - term debt - repayment pressure [63]. - **Refinancing**: In 2024, the net cash flow from financing activities of most debt - issuing urban investment enterprises was positive, but the overall scale decreased, and the financing rhythm slowed down [64]. - **Fiscal Support**: The ratio of "total debt of debt - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" varies significantly among districts, with Hanjiang District having the highest ratio [66].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:江苏省篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-19 09:38
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Jiangsu Province has strong economic and fiscal strength, with its economic aggregate and per capita GDP ranking among the top in the country. However, there are significant disparities among prefecture - level cities, with the southern region outperforming the central and northern regions. The provincial government's debt burden is relatively low in the country, and the debt control work has achieved certain results [4]. - The stock scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu Province is large, and the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is numerous. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA and AA+, and the administrative levels are concentrated at the district - county and park levels. There is a clear differentiation in credit ratings between the southern and northern regions [4]. - In 2024, the debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu Province continued to grow, with the overall debt burden increasing. The short - term debt repayment ability was weak, and the bond financing showed a net outflow [4]. Summary of Each Section 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangsu Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangsu has a superior geographical location, prominent resource endowments, a well - developed transportation system, a high urbanization rate, and a complete industrial structure. Its GDP and per capita GDP rank among the top in the country [5][8]. - The transportation infrastructure in Jiangsu is well - developed, with a high - density civil aviation airport network and a large - scale inland waterway system. The province is rich in various minerals and has a large number of high - level tourist attractions. The population is stable, and the urbanization rate is significantly higher than the national average [5][7]. - In 2024, Jiangsu's GDP reached 13.7008 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The industrial structure is dominated by the secondary and tertiary industries, and the added value of industries above the designated size increased by 7.7% [8][11]. - A series of policies have promoted the economic development of Jiangsu Province, including the "Belt and Road" Initiative, the development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta region [4][16]. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangsu's general public budget revenue maintained growth, ranking second in the country, with high quality and self - sufficiency rates. The government - funded revenue decreased but still contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources. The overall fiscal strength is strong [19]. - In 2024, Jiangsu's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 133.93% and 20.60% respectively, ranking 6th and 2nd in the country (from low to high in terms of debt burden) [20]. 2. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities in Jiangsu Province Economic Strength - There are significant disparities among prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu in terms of economy, population, industry, and listed companies. The southern region is generally better than the central and northern regions [22]. - In 2024, the economies of all 13 prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu continued to grow. Except for Nanjing, the GDP growth rates of other cities were higher than the national average. The urbanization levels in the southern, central, and northern regions showed a step - by - step decline [22]. - The national industrial parks and listed companies in Jiangsu are mainly distributed in the southern region, especially in Suzhou. The number and industry distribution of listed companies in the southern region are more abundant than those in the central and northern regions [24]. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu is unbalanced. In 2024, except for Nanjing, the general public budget revenues of other cities increased year - on - year. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate in the southern region is higher than that in the northern region [29]. - In 2024, except for Zhenjiang, the government - funded revenues of other cities decreased. The northern region generally received more superior - level subsidies and had a higher proportion of such subsidies in the comprehensive financial resources [33][35]. - In 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities in Jiangsu increased year - on - year, and the debt - to - GDP ratios also rose. Zhenjiang's debt ratio was the highest in the province [39]. - In 2025, Jiangsu promoted the implementation of the "1 + 7+13" debt resolution plan, established a full - scale local debt monitoring mechanism, and achieved certain results in debt resolution [39]. 3. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangsu Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - The stock scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu is large, and the number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises is numerous. The credit ratings are mainly AA and AA+, and the administrative levels are concentrated at the district - county and park levels. There is a clear credit rating differentiation between the southern and northern regions [44]. - As of the end of September 2025, there were 584 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Jiangsu, with 84.75% being district - county and park - level enterprises, and 87.16% having AA or AA+ credit ratings [44][45]. Bond Issuance and Outstanding Situation - The issuance and outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu are large. In 2024, the issuance scale decreased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in the southern region. In 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, the bond financing showed a net outflow [54]. - As of the end of September 2025, the outstanding scale of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu was 2.747699 trillion yuan, with the southern, central, and northern regions accounting for 53.80%, 22.43%, and 23.77% respectively [61]. Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, the total debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu continued to grow, with bank loans being the main debt structure. The proportion of other financing in the northern region was higher than that in the central and southern regions [62]. - Since 2023, the overall debt burden of urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu has been increasing, except for Zhenjiang where it has been decreasing. The debt burden of enterprises in Nanjing, Changzhou, and Suzhou is relatively heavy [62]. - In 2026, the concentrated payment pressure of urban investment bonds in Jiangsu is acceptable. The short - term debt repayment ability of urban investment enterprises was weak in 2024 but improved at the end of June 2025 [62]. - In 2024, the net cash flow from financing activities of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Jiangsu decreased year - on - year, and the cash flow of Zhenjiang's urban investment enterprises continued to show a net outflow [62]. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - level Cities for the Debt and Maturing Bonds of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The government and urban investment enterprise debts in Jiangsu are mainly concentrated in the southern region. The " (total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt)/GDP" ratios of Nanjing, Changzhou, Zhenjiang, Taizhou, Yancheng, and Huai'an are relatively high [77][79]. - The comprehensive financial resources of Suqian have a relatively high support and guarantee ability for the "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt", while those of Nanjing, Nantong, Changzhou, Yancheng, Taizhou, Yangzhou, and Zhenjiang have a relatively low support and guarantee ability [77][80]. - The comprehensive financial resources of Nanjing and Taizhou have a relatively low support and guarantee ability for the maturing bonds of local urban investment enterprises in 2026 [81].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:盐城市
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-18 12:18
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yancheng City, a core city in Jiangsu's coastal development, has significant location advantages, an improving transportation network, and steady economic growth. In 2024, its GDP reached 7779.2 billion yuan, ranking 7th in Jiangsu. The city is transforming its industrial structure, with the new - energy industry being a highlight, and it has received strong policy support [4][7][8]. - Yancheng's general public budget revenue is at a mid - level in Jiangsu, with room for improvement in revenue quality and medium - level fiscal self - sufficiency. The government debt burden is relatively heavy, but it is at a mid - level among Jiangsu's prefecture - level cities [4][12]. - The economic development of Yancheng's districts, counties, and cities is generally high but shows regional differences. Dongtai City has the strongest overall economic strength. In 2024, most areas had high tax revenue ratios, but government - funded revenue in many areas was under pressure. All local governments are strengthening debt management [4][20]. - Yancheng has many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises, mainly at AA and AA+ levels. Affected by debt - resolution policies, the net bond financing scale of most district - level urban investment enterprises has shrunk significantly. The debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continues to grow, and they face short - term debt repayment pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Yancheng City's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Location: Yancheng is located in the eastern coastal area of Jiangsu, with the longest coastline and rich tidal flat resources. It is an important node connecting the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration and northern Jiangsu [5]. - Transportation: It has built a three - dimensional transportation network. By the end of 2024, the total highway mileage was 26382.3 kilometers, and the railway passenger volume increased by 9.0% year - on - year. Yancheng Nanyang International Airport's passenger throughput increased by 4.6% [6]. - Urbanization: By the end of 2024, the permanent urban population was about 4.47 million, and the urbanization rate reached 67%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points [7]. - Economic Aggregate: In 2024, Yancheng's GDP was 7779.2 billion yuan, ranking 7th in Jiangsu, with a growth rate of 5.5%. In the first half of 2025, it was about 3720 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2% [7]. - Industrial Structure: The industrial structure is changing from "secondary - tertiary - primary" to "tertiary - secondary - primary". The new - energy industry is well - developed, with the installed new - energy power generation capacity reaching 16.7572 million kilowatts by the end of 2024. The automobile industry also has a certain scale, with a production value of 120 billion yuan in 2024 [8]. - Policy Support: Yancheng has received national and provincial policy support, such as transfer payment income of about 42.8 billion yuan in 2024, and has introduced a series of local policies [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - Fiscal Revenue: In 2024, Yancheng's general public budget revenue was at a mid - level in Jiangsu, with a tax revenue ratio of 67.6%. The government - funded revenue was affected by the real - estate market. The transfer payment income was about 42.8 billion yuan [12][13]. - Debt: The local government debt balance increased to 196.16 billion yuan in 2024, with a debt ratio of 118.5% and a debt - to - GDP ratio of 25.2%, ranking 5th and 12th respectively among Jiangsu's prefecture - level cities [13]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Yancheng's Districts, Counties, and Cities 3.2.1 Economic Strength - Regional Planning: Yancheng has 3 districts, 5 counties, and 1 city, and it plans to build a "one - core, one - pole, three - belt" spatial structure [16]. - Industrial Layout: It has built a "5 + 2" strategic emerging industry system. Different areas have different pillar industries, such as new - energy in Dongtai and Dafeng [18][20]. - Economic Development: In 2024, Dongtai was the only county - level city with a GDP exceeding 100 billion yuan. Most areas had an economic growth rate of over 5.00%. Dongtai had the highest per - capita GDP, and Funing had the lowest [20][22]. - Urbanization Level: The overall urbanization level of Yancheng's districts, counties, and cities is high, all exceeding 60.00%, with Tinghu having the highest rate of 88.49% [22]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Revenue and Debt - Fiscal Revenue: In 2024, the fiscal revenue structure showed significant regional differences. Dongtai and Dafeng had the highest general public budget revenues. Most areas had a relatively high tax revenue ratio, but government - funded revenues in many areas declined [23][25][26]. - Debt: In 2024, the government debt balance of all districts, counties, and cities increased. Dongtai had the largest debt scale, and Jianhu had the heaviest debt burden. Governments at all levels are strengthening debt management [30]. 3.3 Debt Repayment Ability of Yancheng's Urban Investment Enterprises 3.3.1 Overview of Yancheng's Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 30, 2025, there were 54 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Yancheng, mainly at AA and AA+ levels. Dafeng had the most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises [39][40]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of Yancheng's urban investment enterprises decreased by 16.35% year - on - year, and most district - level urban investment enterprises' net bond financing scale shrank significantly. In 2025, the net bond financing turned negative [41][42]. 3.3.3 Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - By the end of 2024, the total debt balance of Yancheng's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises was 845.069 billion yuan, with a 3.24% increase. The debt was concentrated in the city - level and Dafeng. Most enterprises' debt - to - capitalization ratios decreased, but the cash - to - short - term - debt coverage ratio was generally low [45][46]. - In 2024, the net cash inflow from financing activities of urban investment enterprises decreased by 45.87% year - on - year, indicating a slowdown in financing [53]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for Debt - The ratio of "(total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt)/comprehensive fiscal revenue" in Yancheng's districts and counties ranged from 330.41% to 838.84%, with Dafeng having the highest ratio [56].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:江西篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-08 11:05
Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the debt risks of local governments and urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi Province, analyzing the economic, fiscal, and debt situations at the provincial and prefecture - level city levels, as well as the situation of urban investment enterprises [4] Group 2: Economic and Fiscal Strength of Jiangxi Province Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Jiangxi is located in the central - southeastern part of China, with superior location, rich natural and tourism resources, and a comprehensive transportation network. In 2024, its economic aggregate ranked in the middle in China, with per capita GDP in the lower - middle level. The second industry is the main driving force for economic growth [5][8] - The province has made achievements in transportation construction, with 209,500 kilometers of highways, 5023.8 kilometers of railway operating mileage, and 128.45 kilometers of urban rail transit mileage in Nanchang by the end of 2024. It also has 7 airports and a well - developed waterway transportation system [6] - Jiangxi has rich tourism, water energy, and mineral resources. It has many world - level and national - level scenic spots and is rich in minerals like copper, tungsten, etc [6][7] - The province's population ranks in the middle in China, with a relatively low urbanization rate of 63.77% in 2024, lower than the national average [7] - In 2024, Jiangxi's GDP was 3.42025 trillion yuan, ranking 15th in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per capita GDP was 75,900 yuan, ranking 19th. In the first half of 2025, the GDP was 1.67196 trillion yuan, with a 5.6% year - on - year increase [8] - The industrial structure has been adjusted. In 2024, the ratio of the three industries was 7.6:40.0:52.4. The second industry was the core engine for economic growth, with a contribution rate of 52.8% to GDP growth [9] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Jiangxi's general public budget revenue was 306.66 billion yuan, ranking in the middle in China, with a year - on - year increase of 0.2% on a comparable basis. The tax revenue accounted for 63.81%, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 39.84% [17][18] - Affected by the real - estate market downturn, the government - funded revenue in 2024 was 181.39 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease. The superior subsidy revenue accounted for 44.27% of the local comprehensive fiscal resources [18] - In 2024, Jiangxi's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 171.90% and 44.01% respectively, ranking 17th in China [20] Group 3: Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Jiangxi Province Economic Strength - The development of prefecture - level cities in Jiangxi is uneven. The northern part generally leads, followed by the southern part with Ganzhou as the core, while the eastern and western parts have relatively small economic aggregates [22] - Most cities have a "tertiary - secondary - primary" industrial structure, except for Yingtan. Nanchang has the highest economic aggregate, and the GDP of each city increased in 2024 [30] - Ganzhou has the largest permanent population, and Nanchang has the highest urbanization rate [31] Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of prefecture - level cities varied greatly. Nanchang had the highest revenue and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. The government - funded revenue of most cities decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue was relatively large [33] Debt - By the end of 2024, the government debt balance of each prefecture - level city increased. The debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio of each city increased. Ji'an, Yingtan, and Xinyu had relatively high debt ratios [41] - The province will continue to resolve local government debt risks, accelerate the replacement of existing implicit debts, and prevent new implicit debts [42][44] Group 4: Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Jiangxi Province Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - Urban investment enterprises in Jiangxi that issue bonds are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels. Ganzhou has the largest number of such enterprises. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - credit - rated enterprises are concentrated in Nanchang and Ganzhou [45] Bond Issuance - In 2024, the overall bond issuance scale in Jiangxi increased year - on - year, but the net financing scale decreased significantly. Nanchang, Jingdezhen, Pingxiang, and Yichun had net inflows of bond financing, while the rest had net outflows [48][49] - From January to October 2025, Jingdezhen and Fuzhou had net inflows of bond financing for urban investment enterprises, while the rest had net outflows. Shangrao and Nanchang had large - scale net outflows [48][49] Solvency Analysis - As of the end of June 2025, Shangrao, Jingdezhen, and Yichun had the top three increments in the total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The cash - to - short - term - debt ratio of these enterprises in each city was generally weak. Nanchang and Ganzhou will face large - scale bond maturities in 2026, with concentrated repayment pressure [52][55] Support and Guarantee Capacity of Fiscal Revenue - In 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive fiscal resources in each prefecture - level city exceeded 300%, with Nanchang, Shangrao, Yingtan, and Pingxiang exceeding 600%, and Ganzhou and Jingdezhen exceeding 500% [58]
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:山西篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-03 11:12
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2024, due to the decline in domestic coal prices, Shanxi's GDP growth slowed and economic development faced pressure. The general public budget revenue increased slightly, while the government - funded revenue decreased. The provincial government debt scale grew, but the overall debt burden was relatively light. There were disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among cities in Shanxi. The provincial government refined the debt - reduction plan and strengthened debt risk management [4]. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Shanxi was small, mainly at the prefecture - level. Taiyuan had nearly half of the outstanding bond scale. Some cities' urban investment enterprises faced short - term debt repayment pressure. Except for Taiyuan, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities was less than 200% [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Shanxi's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Shanxi had obvious advantages in natural resources, with a coal - based industrial structure. In 2024, coal prices fell, leading to slower GDP growth and economic pressure. It faced challenges in industrial upgrading and structural adjustment. The province had a well - developed transportation network and rich tourism resources. The permanent population was decreasing, and the urbanization rate was lower than the national average [5][6][8]. - In 2024, Shanxi's GDP and per - capita GDP ranked in the middle of the country. The nominal GDP declined due to the drop in coal prices. Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth turned positive, but fixed - asset investment still faced pressure. The coal industry was affected, with a 7.2% decline in coal production. The province was promoting traditional industry transformation and emerging industry cultivation [9][10][13]. 1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Shanxi's general public budget revenue increased slightly, ranking 13th in the country. Tax revenue decreased, while non - tax revenue increased significantly. Government - funded revenue declined due to the real - estate market slump. The proportion of superior subsidy revenue in the local comprehensive financial resources increased. The local government debt rate and debt - to - GDP ratio were relatively low, with a light overall debt burden [16][17][18]. 2. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Shanxi 2.1 Economic Situation of Cities - Most cities in Shanxi were resource - based, with economies highly correlated with coal. Taiyuan had a relatively mature industrial structure and was far ahead in economic strength. In 2024, Taiyuan's GDP accounted for 21.25% of the provincial total. Only Taiyuan and Jincheng had per - capita GDP higher than the national average. In 2025, the GDP of all cities grew, but some cities' economic growth was weak [19][23][24]. 2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Status of Cities - There were significant disparities in fiscal strength among cities. Taiyuan was much stronger than others, with the highest government debt scale. In 2024, most cities' general public budget revenues decreased. Superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of many cities. The government debt rate of all cities increased, with Yangquan having the highest debt rate [27][28][33]. - Shanxi refined the debt - reduction plan, accelerated the reduction of financing platforms, strengthened financial risk prevention, and proposed "dual - reduction targets" to manage local debt risks. Special refinancing bonds were issued to replace implicit debt [34]. 3. Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Shanxi 3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of October 2025, there were 17 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Shanxi, mainly at the prefecture - level. Taiyuan accounted for nearly half of the outstanding bond scale. Some cities had no outstanding urban investment bonds [37]. 3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing of urban investment enterprises in Shanxi increased significantly. AA + - level and above enterprises were the main issuers. In 2024 and the first nine months of 2025, the bond financing of urban investment enterprises turned to net repayment, and the net repayment scale expanded [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, Taiyuan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises had a large interest - bearing debt scale and a relatively heavy debt burden. Most cities' short - term debt - repayment indicators declined. In 2026, Taiyuan had a large amount of due urban investment bonds, facing concentrated repayment pressure [41]. 3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Cities for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debt - Limited by economic and fiscal strength, most cities in Shanxi had few bond - issuing urban investment enterprises with small scales. Except for Taiyuan, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in other cities was less than 200% [47].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:新疆篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-12-01 11:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Xinjiang has a significant strategic position and obvious resource endowment advantages, forming a modern industrial system. In 2024, its economic growth rate remained among the top in China. The region has weak fiscal self - sufficiency but relies on resource reserves and superior subsidies to improve the balance of revenue and expenditure. The overall debt risk is controllable, and the debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has decreased to some extent, but there are differences in short - term solvency among different regions [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Xinjiang's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Xinjiang is strategically important with rich reserves of minerals, solar, and wind energy. It has a large land area, a long border, and is adjacent to many countries. By the end of 2024, its permanent population was 26.228 million, and the urbanization rate was 60.36%. The production and construction corps is an important part of Xinjiang [6][7]. - In terms of transportation and resources, by the end of 2024, Xinjiang had 230,000 kilometers of roads, 9202 kilometers of railway operating mileage, 26.8 kilometers of urban rail transit, 27 civil transport airports, and 19 open ports. It also had abundant land, water, energy, mineral, and tourism resources [8][9]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's GDP was 2.053408 trillion yuan, ranking 23rd in China, with a growth rate of 6.10%, ranking second. The industrial structure was adjusted to 12.5:39.6:47.9, initially forming a modern industrial system [9]. - National strategies and policies such as the "Three Bases and One Corridor", "Five Strategic Positions", "Ten Industrial Clusters", and counterpart assistance to Xinjiang, as well as local economic promotion policies, have promoted Xinjiang's development. In 2024, 19 counterpart - assistance provinces and cities arranged nearly 20 billion yuan in assistance funds, and central enterprises signed investment agreements worth 940 billion yuan [11]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - Xinjiang has weak fiscal self - sufficiency. In 2024, the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was 34.38%. To improve the balance of revenue and expenditure, it increased revenue from the paid use of state - owned resources and assets and actively sought superior subsidies, which accounted for about 61% of the comprehensive financial resources in 2024 [13][15]. - In 2024, Xinjiang's general public budget revenue was 214.46 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 10.5% in the same caliber. The government - funded revenue was 53.523 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [14]. - By the end of 2024, Xinjiang's local government debt ratio and debt - to - GDP ratio were 158.49% and 53.04% respectively, ranking 11th and 24th in China. The local comprehensive financial resources' coverage of government debt balance ranked in the upper - middle level in China [19]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefectures and Cities in Xinjiang 3.2.1 Economic Development of Prefectures and Cities - The economic development of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang is uneven, with significant regional differences in industrial structure. The northern region centered on Urumqi has relatively strong economic strength, the gap between the north and the south is gradually narrowing, and the eastern region leads the growth in economic growth rate. Hami City has the highest per - capita GDP in Xinjiang [22]. - In 2024, the GDP of the northern region was 1.268094 trillion yuan (accounting for 61.8% of Xinjiang), with a growth rate of 5.7%. The GDP of the southern region was 612.833 billion yuan (29.8%), with a growth rate of 6.0%. The GDP of the eastern region was 172.481 billion yuan (8.4%), with a growth rate of 9.9% [28][29]. - The industrial structure of prefectures and cities in Xinjiang varies greatly. Changji, Karamay, Bayingolin, Hami, and Turpan have a relatively high proportion of secondary industries, while other prefectures and cities are mainly dominated by the tertiary industry, but the proportion of the tertiary industry varies significantly [30]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased, but the growth rate slowed down. Most prefectures and cities' government - funded revenue increased, but the scale was relatively small. Urumqi had the largest general public budget revenue and government - funded revenue. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate varied greatly among regions, and superior subsidies accounted for a high proportion of comprehensive fiscal revenue, with more subsidies going to the southern region [33][34]. - In 2024, the local government debt balance of all prefectures and cities in Xinjiang increased. The debt ratio of Urumqi was the highest in the region. The debt - to - GDP ratio of some prefectures and cities in the southern region was relatively high, but they could receive more superior subsidies [37]. - Xinjiang has implemented the "1 + 7+14" debt - resolution plan, accelerated the withdrawal of financing platforms, and issued local government replacement bonds. It has also carried out dynamic monitoring and supervision of all - caliber local debt, project penetration supervision, and full - life - cycle performance management [39][40]. 3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Xinjiang 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 33 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang. The credit ratings of these enterprises are mainly AA, and high - level enterprises are concentrated in Urumqi [44]. 3.3.2 Bond - Issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang increased year - on - year, mainly concentrated in Urumqi and Ili. The bond financing showed a net inflow. From January to September 2025, the debt financing was in tight balance, and the bond financing of Urumqi's urban investment enterprises turned into net repayment [45][46]. 3.3.3 Debt - Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang decreased by 5.86% year - on - year. The debt structure was mainly bank - related and bond - related debts. The overall debt burden of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in each prefecture and city was moderate, but Ili and Changji faced greater short - term debt - repayment pressure [49]. - In terms of bond redemption, in 2026, the scale of due bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Xinjiang was 38.621 billion yuan, mainly concentrated in Urumqi [53]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefectures and Cities for the Debt of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - By the end of 2024, in more than half of the prefectures and cities in Xinjiang, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources exceeded 200%. Urumqi had the highest ratio, exceeding 600%, while Kashgar had the lowest ratio, at 118.39% [59].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告-广西篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-25 11:37
Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Guangxi has obvious resource endowment advantages but faces challenges such as lower - than - national - average GDP growth, a relatively heavy debt burden, and low urbanization rates. In 2024, the economy maintained growth with foreign trade as the main driver, and the government actively promoted debt resolution, achieving certain results [4]. - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in economic development, population, and urbanization, while Liuzhou faced economic growth pressure in 2024. Most cities' comprehensive financial resources rely highly on superior subsidies due to the downturn in the real estate market [4][21]. - Guangxi's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level city level, with concentrated bonds in Liuzhou, Nanning, and provincial - level enterprises. In 2024, the debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency was weak, and regional financing capabilities were polarized [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Guangxi's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Guangxi's Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Guangxi has rich natural resources and a unique strategic position. It is an important gateway for opening up to ASEAN and a core hub of the New Western Land - Sea Corridor. The modern three - dimensional transportation pattern is initially formed, and infrastructure construction will be further promoted in the "14th Five - Year Plan" and "15th Five - Year Plan" periods [5][6]. - In 2024, Guangxi's economic aggregate was at a medium - low level nationwide, with a lower - than - national - average GDP growth rate, a low - ranking per capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure remained stable, and foreign trade was the main driver of economic growth. The government continued to improve infrastructure and deepen economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN countries in 2025 [5][9]. 2. Guangxi's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Guangxi's general public budget revenue increased slightly, with weak fiscal self - sufficiency. Government - funded revenues continued to decline, and the central government provided strong support through transfer payments. Government debt balances continued to grow, and the debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the upper - middle level nationwide, indicating a relatively heavy debt burden [17]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - There are significant disparities in economic strength among prefecture - level cities in Guangxi. Nanning leads in GDP, population, and urbanization. Liuzhou's economic growth was under pressure in 2024. Most cities' per capita GDP is lower than the national average, and the proportion of the primary industry is generally high [21][25]. - The Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the Xijiang Economic Belt have better industrial bases. Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages [23]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situations of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi - Fiscal Revenues: General public budget revenues vary greatly among cities, with Nanning having the highest. Most cities' fiscal self - sufficiency is weak. Government - funded revenues of most cities decreased due to the real estate market downturn, and superior subsidies contribute significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [27][28][30]. - Debt Situations: In 2024, the government debt balance of Guangxi increased by 16.01% year - on - year, and the debt balances of all prefecture - level cities rose. Except for Guilin, the debt ratios of other cities increased, and the debt ratios of Liuzhou, Laibin, and Qinzhou exceeded 200% [33]. 3. Debt Management Policies and Measures - Since 2024, Guangxi has promoted local debt resolution through various means such as special refinancing bonds, financial institution support, and asset revitalization, achieving certain results. Liuzhou's debt structure has been significantly optimized [35]. III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - As of the end of September 2025, there were 50 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Guangxi, mainly at the prefecture - level city level, concentrated in Liuzhou and Nanning [40]. 2. Bond - Issuing Situations of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi decreased by 12.18% year - on - year, mainly for debt replacement, and was concentrated in Liuzhou and provincial - level enterprises. From 2024 to the first three quarters of 2025, the net repayment scale of urban investment bonds in Guangxi narrowed, but Liuzhou's net repayment scale remained large [41][43]. 3. Analysis of Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Guangxi - At the end of 2024, the total debt of urban investment enterprises in Guangxi increased slightly, with relatively heavy debt burdens on provincial - level, Liuzhou, Guilin, and Hechi enterprises. The debt term structure slightly improved, but short - term solvency indicators were weak. Regional financing capabilities were polarized [45]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenues of Prefecture - Level Cities in Guangxi for the Debts of Bond - Issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - Limited by economic and fiscal strength, most prefecture - level cities in Guangxi have small bond - issuing scales for urban investment enterprises. The "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" in Nanning and Liuzhou is large, and in Liuzhou, this ratio to comprehensive financial resources is close to 800%, indicating high regional debt pressure [53].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:湖南篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-05 12:00
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hunan Province has a significant geographical position and obvious resource endowment advantages. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry was lower than the national average. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. The general public budget revenue was at a medium level, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate and high debt ratio [4][5]. - The province has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, such as debt replacement and platform company transformation. After the implementation of debt - resolution policies, the spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [4][23]. - There are obvious disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, the provincial capital, has far higher economic and fiscal levels than other regions. In 2024, the overall tax revenue contribution of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) was relatively high, but most of them saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue, and the contribution of superior subsidy revenue to comprehensive financial resources was high. The government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased at the end of 2024, and the debt ratio rose [4]. - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions. In 2024, the bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory I. Hunan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Hunan - Hunan has a prominent geographical advantage, with a developed transportation system and rich resource endowment. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a per - capita GDP in the middle level. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. With the implementation of national strategies, Hunan's economic strength is expected to further increase [5][7]. - The population of Hunan is large, but the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP growth rate was 4.8%, lower than the national average, and the per - capita GDP was 81,200 yuan, ranking 14th in the country [7]. - Hunan presents a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower than the national average. The province is strengthening its agricultural base, promoting high - tech industries, and optimizing the industrial structure [9][11]. - Thanks to the rapid growth of industrial investment and the accelerated recovery of infrastructure investment, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in Hunan turned positive in 2024. Industrial investment increased by 9.5%, infrastructure investment increased by 5.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 13.0% [12]. - National strategies and policies support Hunan's development. Central government transfer payments and special funds also provide assistance to the province [14][17]. 2. Hunan's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Hunan's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, ranking in the middle in the country. The tax revenue contribution was acceptable, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was low. The government - funded revenue decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the middle and the back respectively in the country [19][20]. 3. Hunan's Debt Resolution - Hunan has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, including debt replacement, platform company transformation, and the exploration of debt - resolution mechanisms. The spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [23][27]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - There are large disparities in the economic strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, as the provincial capital, has obvious advantages. The province is divided into four regions with different industrial development layouts [29][34]. - In 2024, Changsha was the only city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, accounting for 28.68% of the provincial total. The GDP growth rates of most cities except some were over 5.00%. Changsha had the highest per - capita GDP, while Xiangxi had the lowest [37][38]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan continues to show a differentiated pattern. Changsha has far higher comprehensive fiscal strength than other cities. The overall tax revenue contribution is relatively high, but most cities saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue in 2024. The superior subsidy revenue contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [41][48]. - At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and the debt ratio rose. Xiangtan had the highest debt ratio, and Zhangjiajie, Zhuzhou, Changde, Loudi, and Chenzhou also had relatively high debt ratios [49][50]. III. Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hunan 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions, with the majority of the main body levels being AA. Since 2024, the main body credit levels of 4 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [53][55]. 2. Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year. The bond - issuing enterprises were concentrated in Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou, with the main body levels mainly being AA+. The bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment in 2024, and the net financing scale was still negative in the first half of 2025 [56][57]. 3. Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the growth rate of the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year and rebounded in the first half of 2025. Changsha accounted for the highest proportion of the total debt scale. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high, and there is a large bond concentration payment pressure in 2026 [60][63]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in most prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan is between 200% and 700%. Xiangtan and Zhuzhou are relatively high in the province, followed by Changde, Changsha, and Yueyang, while Yongzhou and Xiangxi are relatively low [70].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:河南篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-11-04 12:20
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Henan Province has a high - level economic development with a leading GDP in China, but a relatively low per - capita GDP and urbanization rate. The province has taken measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and has completed the implicit debt resolution plan for seven consecutive years since 2018 [4]. - There is a high degree of differentiation in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou has an absolute advantage in economic and fiscal strength, and Luoyang also maintains a leading position. Some cities have relatively high government debt ratios and need to pay attention to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises [4]. - Most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises still face significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. Attention should be paid to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises with relatively heavy local government debt burdens, low debt - repayment and support capabilities, and insufficient refinancing capabilities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Henan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Henan is located in the central - eastern part of China, with superior transportation location and prominent resource endowment. It has a high - level economic development, a leading GDP, a middle - lower per - capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure is "tertiary - secondary - primary", and strategic opportunities such as the construction of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration help the regional development [5]. - Henan has a large population, with a permanent population of 97.85 million in 2024, ranking third in China. The urbanization rate is 59.22%, lower than the national average, with large room for development [9]. - In 2024, Henan's GDP was 6.358999 trillion yuan, ranking sixth in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per - capita GDP was 64,900 yuan, lower than the national level. The industrial and service industries have good development momentum, and investment in fixed assets and industry has increased [10][14][15]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, Henan's general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, ranking in the upper - middle level in China. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low, and the government - funded revenue continued to decline. The provincial government debt ratio and liability ratio are in the middle in China, but the liability level is rising rapidly [23]. - In 2024, Henan's local government debt ratio and liability ratio were 169.48% and 33.51% respectively, ranking 15th and 10th in China, up 26.36 and 3.25 percentage points from the end of the previous year [24]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Henan 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities - There is a high degree of imbalance in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou is the only city with a GDP of over one trillion yuan, and Luoyang and Nanyang also have obvious leading advantages. Most cities have a lower urbanization rate than the national average [26]. - The economic development levels of cities in Henan are highly differentiated, showing a ladder - like distribution. In 2024, most cities' GDP rankings remained the same as in 2023. In terms of per - capita GDP, Zhengzhou and Jiyuan lead, and Zhoukou ranks last. In terms of urbanization rate, Zhengzhou has the highest level [35][36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt of Prefecture - Level Cities - The fiscal strength of cities in Henan is highly differentiated. Zhengzhou leads in terms of fiscal revenue scale and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. In 2024, the general public budget revenue of some cities fluctuated, and more than half of the cities' government - funded revenue decreased. The superior subsidy income contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources [38]. - In 2024, the government debt balance of all cities in Henan increased, with Zhengzhou having the largest balance. The government debt ratio and liability ratio of all cities increased, and the debt burden is relatively heavy. Shangqiu, Puyang, Xuchang, and Zhoukou had a relatively large increase in the government debt ratio [48][49]. 3.2.3 Debt Resolution - Henan has taken various measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and the overall debt risk is controllable. It has optimized the debt structure and reduced the risk level. Since 2024, the spread of urban investment bonds in Henan has shown a downward trend [50][53]. 3.3 Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Henan 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan at the provincial level and in 18 cities. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels, and they are mainly distributed in Zhengzhou and its surrounding cities. The credit levels of Zhengzhou's urban investment enterprises are relatively high [55]. - As of the end of September 2025, there were 148 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan, with a total balance of outstanding bonds of 768.689 billion yuan. High - credit - level enterprises are mainly concentrated at the provincial level and in Zhengzhou, and AA - level enterprises account for the highest proportion [56][57]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number of bonds issued by Henan's urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, while the scale increased. Most cities maintained a net inflow of bond financing. From January to September 2025, the bond issuance rhythm slowed down, and regional differentiation intensified [63]. 3.3.3 Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises faced significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. The debt burden of some cities' urban investment enterprises is relatively heavy [68][71]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Local Fiscal Revenue for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debt - At the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in Henan cities was at least about 220.15%. Zhengzhou had the highest ratio, and the support and guarantee ability of some cities was under pressure [76].
地方政府与城投企业债务风险研究报告:甘肃篇
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-09-23 11:24
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gansu Province has significant regional advantages and rich resources, with stable economic growth in 2024, but its economic aggregate and per capita GDP are still at the lower level in the country. The provincial government's debt scale is growing, but the debt ratio is at the middle level in the country due to the support of superior subsidy income. As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, it continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. The number of financing platforms has decreased significantly, and future work on platform clearance and transformation and upgrading will continue. - The economic and fiscal strengths of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu are significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, the provincial capital, leads in economic development and fiscal strength. By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and most of their debt ratios and debt - to - GDP ratios rose. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu is small, mainly at the prefecture - level. In 2024, the net financing of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. As of the end of 2024, the short - term debt repayment indicators of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to weaken, and most of them still face great short - term debt repayment pressure. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Gansu Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development of Gansu Province - Gansu has significant regional advantages, rich in land, mineral, medicinal, and cultural and tourism resources, with relatively developed land and air transportation. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the planned transportation fixed - asset investment scale (excluding railways) is about 500 billion yuan. As of the end of 2024, the total highway mileage reached 159,300 kilometers, and the railway operating mileage was 5,960 kilometers. [5][6] - The province's population is multi - ethnic, and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 24.5834 million, and the urbanization rate was 56.83%. [7] - In 2024, Gansu's GDP was 1,300.29 billion yuan, ranking 27th in the country, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The per capita GDP was 58,300 yuan, ranking 31st. From January to June 2025, the GDP was 646.88 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.3%, 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average. [8] - The industrial structure is relatively stable, with the tertiary industry as the main driving force for economic growth. The cultural and tourism industry has achieved "dual improvement in quantity and quality". In 2024, the tertiary industry added value was 694.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The province received 451 million domestic tourists, with domestic tourism revenue of 345.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% and 25.8% respectively. [11] - National strategies and policies, such as the Western Development Strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High - quality Development Strategy, have promoted the economic development of Gansu. The province also actively undertakes industrial transfer from the east - central regions, and Lanzhou New Area has strong economic growth momentum. [12][13][14] - The central government provides transfer payments and special funds to support Gansu's development. In 2024, the superior subsidy income in the general public budget revenue was 345.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.02%. [15] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Gansu - In 2024, Gansu's general public budget revenue ranked at the lower level in the country, with relatively weak overall fiscal strength and low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, but the general public budget revenue was relatively stable. The government - funded income decreased year - on - year, and the superior subsidy income contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government's debt - to - GDP ratio ranked behind in the country, and the debt ratio was at the middle level in the country. [17] - As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, Gansu continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to August 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 50.6 billion yuan and 44.3 billion yuan respectively. In 2024, it obtained a new government debt quota of 211.5 billion yuan, including a special debt quota of 194.4 billion yuan. [20] II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu (1) Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu is significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, as the provincial capital, has a good industrial foundation and is significantly stronger than other cities. Jinchang and Jiayuguan have high per capita GDP due to rich resources. [21] - Gansu promotes the formation of an urban development pattern of "one belt, one corridor, one core, and two regional centers". Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages. Lanzhou provides core support for the provincial industrial development. [24] - In 2024, cities with GDP over 100 billion yuan were Lanzhou, Qingyang, and Jiuquan. Lanzhou had the highest GDP, accounting for 28.78% of the province's GDP. Jinchang, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan had GDP growth rates over 7%. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the lowest growth rate of 3.8%. [29] - Jinchang and Jiayuguan led in per capita GDP, while Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture ranked last. As of the end of 2024, Lanzhou had a concentrated population and a relatively high urbanization rate. Jinchang and Jiayuguan also had urbanization rates over 80%. [30] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - **Fiscal Revenue**: In 2024, the fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu continued to be differentiated. Lanzhou's comprehensive fiscal strength was much higher than others, with high tax revenue contribution. Most cities' government - funded income decreased significantly due to the land transfer market. The superior subsidy income was large and contributed highly to the comprehensive financial resources. [31] - **Debt Situation**: By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased. Most cities' debt - to - GDP ratios and debt ratios rose. Lanzhou had the highest debt ratio of 234.50%. In 2024, Gansu reduced 94 financing platforms, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9%. The province will continue to resolve debt risks and promote the transformation and upgrading of financing platforms. [38][39][41] III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Gansu (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 8, 2025, there were 7 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Gansu, mainly at the prefecture - level, and the credit ratings were mainly AA. Since 2024, the credit ratings of these enterprises have not changed, but one enterprise's rating outlook remained negative. [45][46] (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Gansu increased significantly, mainly concentrated in Lanzhou and Pingliang. The net financing was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. [47] (3) Debt Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the total debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu was 129.023 billion yuan, with high regional concentration. Most enterprises still faced great short - term debt repayment pressure, and the short - term debt repayment indicators continued to weaken. The provincial and Lanzhou - level enterprises had a significant increase in net cash inflow from financing activities. [50] (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in bond - issuing prefecture - level cities in Gansu was between 100% and 350%, with Lanzhou having the highest ratio of 316.26%, indicating weak support and guarantee ability. [58]