地方政府与城投企业债务风险 研究报告－广西篇 联合资信 公用评级四部 | 孙婧 陈帅 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 报告概要 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 2 广西壮族自治区沿海沿江沿边，是中国西南地区最便捷的出海通道，是连接粤港澳与西部地 区的重要通道、"一带一路"有机衔接的重要门户、面向东盟开放合作的"桥头堡"、西部陆 海新通道核心枢纽，资源禀赋优势明显。2024 年，广西经济保持增长，进出口贸易是经济增 长主要驱动力，但 GDP 增速低于全国平均水平；地区生产总值、人均 GDP 及一般公共预算 收入在全国排名靠后，城镇化率较低。广西债务负担偏重，稳定增长的上级补助对综合财力 提供了有力支撑。 广西各地级市经济实力分化明显，南宁市经济发展水平、人口规模、城镇化率均处于领先地 位，柳州市、桂林市和玉林市紧随其后；2024 年，柳州市经济增长承压，GDP 增速落后于其 他地级市。产业结构方面，除百色市、北海市、崇左市和防城港市产业结构以第二产业为主 外，其他地级市产业结构均以第三产业为主，且第一产业普遍占比偏高。受房地产市场持续 低迷影响，大部分地市政府性基金收入出现不同程 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Hunan Province has a significant geographical position and obvious resource endowment advantages. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry was lower than the national average. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. The general public budget revenue was at a medium level, with a low fiscal self - sufficiency rate and high debt ratio [4][5]. - The province has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, such as debt replacement and platform company transformation. After the implementation of debt - resolution policies, the spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [4][23]. - There are obvious disparities in the economic and fiscal strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, the provincial capital, has far higher economic and fiscal levels than other regions. In 2024, the overall tax revenue contribution of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) was relatively high, but most of them saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue, and the contribution of superior subsidy revenue to comprehensive financial resources was high. The government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased at the end of 2024, and the debt ratio rose [4]. - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions. In 2024, the bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory I. Hunan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 1. Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Hunan - Hunan has a prominent geographical advantage, with a developed transportation system and rich resource endowment. In 2024, its economic aggregate was in the upper - middle level in the country, with a per - capita GDP in the middle level. The fixed - asset investment growth rate turned positive. With the implementation of national strategies, Hunan's economic strength is expected to further increase [5][7]. - The population of Hunan is large, but the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. In 2024, the GDP growth rate was 4.8%, lower than the national average, and the per - capita GDP was 81,200 yuan, ranking 14th in the country [7]. - Hunan presents a "tertiary - secondary - primary" economic development pattern, but the proportion of the tertiary industry is lower than the national average. The province is strengthening its agricultural base, promoting high - tech industries, and optimizing the industrial structure [9][11]. - Thanks to the rapid growth of industrial investment and the accelerated recovery of infrastructure investment, the fixed - asset investment growth rate in Hunan turned positive in 2024. Industrial investment increased by 9.5%, infrastructure investment increased by 5.9%, and real - estate development investment decreased by 13.0% [12]. - National strategies and policies support Hunan's development. Central government transfer payments and special funds also provide assistance to the province [14][17]. 2. Hunan's Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation - In 2024, Hunan's general public budget revenue increased year - on - year, ranking in the middle in the country. The tax revenue contribution was acceptable, but the fiscal self - sufficiency rate was low. The government - funded revenue decreased, and the superior subsidy revenue contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government debt ratio and liability ratio ranked in the middle and the back respectively in the country [19][20]. 3. Hunan's Debt Resolution - Hunan has implemented multiple measures to address implicit debt, including debt replacement, platform company transformation, and the exploration of debt - resolution mechanisms. The spread of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises has significantly narrowed, and the debt - resolution work in Xiangtan has achieved phased results [23][27]. II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan 1. Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - There are large disparities in the economic strength among prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan. Changsha, as the provincial capital, has obvious advantages. The province is divided into four regions with different industrial development layouts [29][34]. - In 2024, Changsha was the only city with a GDP exceeding one trillion yuan, accounting for 28.68% of the provincial total. The GDP growth rates of most cities except some were over 5.00%. Changsha had the highest per - capita GDP, while Xiangxi had the lowest [37][38]. 2. Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Hunan - The fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan continues to show a differentiated pattern. Changsha has far higher comprehensive fiscal strength than other cities. The overall tax revenue contribution is relatively high, but most cities saw a significant decline in government - funded revenue in 2024. The superior subsidy revenue contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources of most cities [41][48]. - At the end of 2024, the government debt balance of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and the debt ratio rose. Xiangtan had the highest debt ratio, and Zhangjiajie, Zhuzhou, Changde, Loudi, and Chenzhou also had relatively high debt ratios [49][50]. III. Solvency of Urban Investment Enterprises in Hunan 1. Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are many bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan, mainly distributed in the Changzhutan and northern Hunan regions, with the majority of the main body levels being AA. Since 2024, the main body credit levels of 4 urban investment enterprises have been upgraded [53][55]. 2. Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the bond - issuing scale of urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year. The bond - issuing enterprises were concentrated in Changsha, Changde, and Zhuzhou, with the main body levels mainly being AA+. The bonds of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) showed net repayment in 2024, and the net financing scale was still negative in the first half of 2025 [56][57]. 3. Solvency Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the growth rate of the total debt scale of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Hunan decreased year - on - year and rebounded in the first half of 2025. Changsha accounted for the highest proportion of the total debt scale. Since 2025, the short - term solvency indicators of most bond - issuing urban investment enterprises have generally improved, but the overall short - term liquidity pressure remains high, and there is a large bond concentration payment pressure in 2026 [60][63]. 4. Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in most prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Hunan is between 200% and 700%. Xiangtan and Zhuzhou are relatively high in the province, followed by Changde, Changsha, and Yueyang, while Yongzhou and Xiangxi are relatively low [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Henan Province has a high - level economic development with a leading GDP in China, but a relatively low per - capita GDP and urbanization rate. The province has taken measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and has completed the implicit debt resolution plan for seven consecutive years since 2018 [4]. - There is a high degree of differentiation in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou has an absolute advantage in economic and fiscal strength, and Luoyang also maintains a leading position. Some cities have relatively high government debt ratios and need to pay attention to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises [4]. - Most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises still face significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. Attention should be paid to the credit risks of urban investment enterprises with relatively heavy local government debt burdens, low debt - repayment and support capabilities, and insufficient refinancing capabilities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Henan's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development - Henan is located in the central - eastern part of China, with superior transportation location and prominent resource endowment. It has a high - level economic development, a leading GDP, a middle - lower per - capita GDP, and a low urbanization rate. The industrial structure is "tertiary - secondary - primary", and strategic opportunities such as the construction of the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration help the regional development [5]. - Henan has a large population, with a permanent population of 97.85 million in 2024, ranking third in China. The urbanization rate is 59.22%, lower than the national average, with large room for development [9]. - In 2024, Henan's GDP was 6.358999 trillion yuan, ranking sixth in China, with a growth rate of 5.1%. The per - capita GDP was 64,900 yuan, lower than the national level. The industrial and service industries have good development momentum, and investment in fixed assets and industry has increased [10][14][15]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt - In 2024, Henan's general public budget revenue decreased slightly year - on - year, ranking in the upper - middle level in China. The fiscal self - sufficiency rate is low, and the government - funded revenue continued to decline. The provincial government debt ratio and liability ratio are in the middle in China, but the liability level is rising rapidly [23]. - In 2024, Henan's local government debt ratio and liability ratio were 169.48% and 33.51% respectively, ranking 15th and 10th in China, up 26.36 and 3.25 percentage points from the end of the previous year [24]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - Level Cities in Henan 3.2.1 Economic Strength of Prefecture - Level Cities - There is a high degree of imbalance in the development of cities in Henan. Zhengzhou is the only city with a GDP of over one trillion yuan, and Luoyang and Nanyang also have obvious leading advantages. Most cities have a lower urbanization rate than the national average [26]. - The economic development levels of cities in Henan are highly differentiated, showing a ladder - like distribution. In 2024, most cities' GDP rankings remained the same as in 2023. In terms of per - capita GDP, Zhengzhou and Jiyuan lead, and Zhoukou ranks last. In terms of urbanization rate, Zhengzhou has the highest level [35][36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Government Debt of Prefecture - Level Cities - The fiscal strength of cities in Henan is highly differentiated. Zhengzhou leads in terms of fiscal revenue scale and fiscal self - sufficiency rate. In 2024, the general public budget revenue of some cities fluctuated, and more than half of the cities' government - funded revenue decreased. The superior subsidy income contributes significantly to the comprehensive financial resources [38]. - In 2024, the government debt balance of all cities in Henan increased, with Zhengzhou having the largest balance. The government debt ratio and liability ratio of all cities increased, and the debt burden is relatively heavy. Shangqiu, Puyang, Xuchang, and Zhoukou had a relatively large increase in the government debt ratio [48][49]. 3.2.3 Debt Resolution - Henan has taken various measures to prevent and resolve government debt risks, and the overall debt risk is controllable. It has optimized the debt structure and reduced the risk level. Since 2024, the spread of urban investment bonds in Henan has shown a downward trend [50][53]. 3.3 Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Henan 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - There are bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan at the provincial level and in 18 cities. The administrative levels of these enterprises are mainly at the prefecture - level and district - county levels, and they are mainly distributed in Zhengzhou and its surrounding cities. The credit levels of Zhengzhou's urban investment enterprises are relatively high [55]. - As of the end of September 2025, there were 148 bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Henan, with a total balance of outstanding bonds of 768.689 billion yuan. High - credit - level enterprises are mainly concentrated at the provincial level and in Zhengzhou, and AA - level enterprises account for the highest proportion [56][57]. 3.3.2 Bond Issuance - In 2024, the number of bonds issued by Henan's urban investment enterprises decreased year - on - year, while the scale increased. Most cities maintained a net inflow of bond financing. From January to September 2025, the bond issuance rhythm slowed down, and regional differentiation intensified [63]. 3.3.3 Debt Repayment Ability Analysis - At the end of 2024, most of Henan's bond - issuing urban investment enterprises faced significant short - term debt repayment pressure, and the bond maturity scale of provincial - level, Zhengzhou, and Luoyang urban investment enterprises in 2026 is large. The debt burden of some cities' urban investment enterprises is relatively heavy [68][71]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Local Fiscal Revenue for Urban Investment Enterprises' Debt - At the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to comprehensive financial resources in Henan cities was at least about 220.15%. Zhengzhou had the highest ratio, and the support and guarantee ability of some cities was under pressure [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Gansu Province has significant regional advantages and rich resources, with stable economic growth in 2024, but its economic aggregate and per capita GDP are still at the lower level in the country. The provincial government's debt scale is growing, but the debt ratio is at the middle level in the country due to the support of superior subsidy income. As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, it continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. The number of financing platforms has decreased significantly, and future work on platform clearance and transformation and upgrading will continue. - The economic and fiscal strengths of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu are significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, the provincial capital, leads in economic development and fiscal strength. By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased, and most of their debt ratios and debt - to - GDP ratios rose. - The number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu is small, mainly at the prefecture - level. In 2024, the net financing of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. As of the end of 2024, the short - term debt repayment indicators of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises continued to weaken, and most of them still face great short - term debt repayment pressure. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Gansu Province's Economic and Fiscal Strength (1) Regional Characteristics and Economic Development of Gansu Province - Gansu has significant regional advantages, rich in land, mineral, medicinal, and cultural and tourism resources, with relatively developed land and air transportation. During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, the planned transportation fixed - asset investment scale (excluding railways) is about 500 billion yuan. As of the end of 2024, the total highway mileage reached 159,300 kilometers, and the railway operating mileage was 5,960 kilometers. [5][6] - The province's population is multi - ethnic, and the urbanization rate is lower than the national average. As of the end of 2024, the permanent population was 24.5834 million, and the urbanization rate was 56.83%. [7] - In 2024, Gansu's GDP was 1,300.29 billion yuan, ranking 27th in the country, with a growth rate of 5.8%. The per capita GDP was 58,300 yuan, ranking 31st. From January to June 2025, the GDP was 646.88 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 6.3%, 1.0 percentage point higher than the national average. [8] - The industrial structure is relatively stable, with the tertiary industry as the main driving force for economic growth. The cultural and tourism industry has achieved "dual improvement in quantity and quality". In 2024, the tertiary industry added value was 694.48 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The province received 451 million domestic tourists, with domestic tourism revenue of 345.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 16.2% and 25.8% respectively. [11] - National strategies and policies, such as the Western Development Strategy, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Yellow River Basin Ecological Protection and High - quality Development Strategy, have promoted the economic development of Gansu. The province also actively undertakes industrial transfer from the east - central regions, and Lanzhou New Area has strong economic growth momentum. [12][13][14] - The central government provides transfer payments and special funds to support Gansu's development. In 2024, the superior subsidy income in the general public budget revenue was 345.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.02%. [15] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Gansu - In 2024, Gansu's general public budget revenue ranked at the lower level in the country, with relatively weak overall fiscal strength and low fiscal self - sufficiency rate, but the general public budget revenue was relatively stable. The government - funded income decreased year - on - year, and the superior subsidy income contributed significantly to the local comprehensive financial resources. The government's debt - to - GDP ratio ranked behind in the country, and the debt ratio was at the middle level in the country. [17] - As one of the 12 key provinces for debt resolution, Gansu continues to receive central debt - resolution policy support. In 2024 and from January to August 2025, it issued special refinancing bonds of 50.6 billion yuan and 44.3 billion yuan respectively. In 2024, it obtained a new government debt quota of 211.5 billion yuan, including a special debt quota of 194.4 billion yuan. [20] II. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu (1) Economic Strength of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - The economic strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu is significantly differentiated. Lanzhou, as the provincial capital, has a good industrial foundation and is significantly stronger than other cities. Jinchang and Jiayuguan have high per capita GDP due to rich resources. [21] - Gansu promotes the formation of an urban development pattern of "one belt, one corridor, one core, and two regional centers". Each city develops relevant industries based on its own resource advantages. Lanzhou provides core support for the provincial industrial development. [24] - In 2024, cities with GDP over 100 billion yuan were Lanzhou, Qingyang, and Jiuquan. Lanzhou had the highest GDP, accounting for 28.78% of the province's GDP. Jinchang, Jiuquan, and Jiayuguan had GDP growth rates over 7%. Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture had the lowest growth rate of 3.8%. [29] - Jinchang and Jiayuguan led in per capita GDP, while Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture ranked last. As of the end of 2024, Lanzhou had a concentrated population and a relatively high urbanization rate. Jinchang and Jiayuguan also had urbanization rates over 80%. [30] (2) Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities (Prefectures) in Gansu - **Fiscal Revenue**: In 2024, the fiscal strength of prefecture - level cities (prefectures) in Gansu continued to be differentiated. Lanzhou's comprehensive fiscal strength was much higher than others, with high tax revenue contribution. Most cities' government - funded income decreased significantly due to the land transfer market. The superior subsidy income was large and contributed highly to the comprehensive financial resources. [31] - **Debt Situation**: By the end of 2024, the government debt balances of all prefecture - level cities (prefectures) increased. Most cities' debt - to - GDP ratios and debt ratios rose. Lanzhou had the highest debt ratio of 234.50%. In 2024, Gansu reduced 94 financing platforms, a year - on - year decrease of 35.9%. The province will continue to resolve debt risks and promote the transformation and upgrading of financing platforms. [38][39][41] III. Debt Repayment Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Gansu (1) Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of September 8, 2025, there were 7 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Gansu, mainly at the prefecture - level, and the credit ratings were mainly AA. Since 2024, the credit ratings of these enterprises have not changed, but one enterprise's rating outlook remained negative. [45][46] (2) Bond Issuance of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bonds issued by urban investment enterprises in Gansu increased significantly, mainly concentrated in Lanzhou and Pingliang. The net financing was positive, and the regional financing environment improved. Since 2025, the short - term debt repayment pressure has increased. [47] (3) Debt Repayment Ability Analysis of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the total debt balance of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises in Gansu was 129.023 billion yuan, with high regional concentration. Most enterprises still faced great short - term debt repayment pressure, and the short - term debt repayment indicators continued to weaken. The provincial and Lanzhou - level enterprises had a significant increase in net cash inflow from financing activities. [50] (4) Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of 2024, the ratio of "total debt of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises + local government debt" to "comprehensive financial resources" in bond - issuing prefecture - level cities in Gansu was between 100% and 350%, with Lanzhou having the highest ratio of 316.26%, indicating weak support and guarantee ability. [58]