银行二永债继续跑输普信债。12月1-5日，银行二永债收益率全线上行，信用利差也普遍走扩，中长端表现更弱，4年、10年二永债利差走扩4-9bp。与中 短票相比，银行二永债表现落后，相对利差多走扩，其中3-4年和10年二级资本债、3-4年AA及以上永续债和4-5年AA-永续债调整幅度更大，相对利差走 扩4-8bp。 二永债具有"利率波动放大器"属性，在利率债还没有明确方向，且基金销售费用新规尚未落地的背景下，估值波动风险仍然较大，交易盘依然建议谨慎参 与。不过，随着中长久期二永债收益率攀升至年内高点附近，性价比凸显，部分负债端稳定、追求绝对收益的账户依然可以考虑布局，持有体验要好于普 信债。假设持有3个月，收益率曲线不变的情形下，3-5年大行二永债的持有期收益率要高于普信债，尤其是3年品种，持有收益率要高10bp左右。即使后 续估值继续调整，3年大行二永债也能够承受20bp左右的利率上行风险。 来源：郁言债市 12月1-5日，资金面平稳，但央行买债不及预期，市场对进一步"宽货币"预期有所弱化，债市继续调整。信用债收益率上行，利差表现分化，高等级城投 债1年、10年表现偏弱，利差走扩3-5bp，30年利差被动收窄8 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In 2026, the investment strategy for bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds should focus on trading, with limited value in credit quality downgrading. The demand side of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds may face pressure, mainly with structural impacts, while the net supply is likely to remain at a low level, and small and medium - sized banks may continue to increase issuance. The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit, but trading difficulties have increased, and short - term downgrading of these bonds may not yield significant excess returns [2][7][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025, Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds: Primary Market Contraction and Secondary Market Differentiation - **Net financing contraction**: In 2025, the net financing of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds decreased year - on - year. The total issuance was 1.58 trillion yuan, with a net financing of 432.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 86.4 billion yuan. The decrease was mainly due to the reduced supply from joint - stock and small and medium - sized banks [12]. - **Differentiated performance**: The yield of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds showed an "M" - shaped oscillatory trend in 2025. Short - term and low - grade bonds performed strongly, with significant narrowing of credit spreads, while long - term bonds underperformed [31]. 3.2 2025, Changes in Institutional Behavior - **More active trading**: In 2025, the trading of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds became more active. The average daily trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous year, and the proportion of trading volume in all credit bonds rose from 31% in 2024 to 39% [1]. - **Increased allocation by major non - bank institutions**: In 2025, funds, wealth management products, insurance, and other asset management products all net - bought other types of bonds (mainly bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds) in the secondary market. Among them, funds, wealth management products, and insurance increased their allocation efforts year - on - year [39]. 3.3 2026, Outlook on the Supply and Demand of Bank Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds - **Demand side pressure with structural impacts**: Under the new regulations on fund sales fees, short - term and medium - short - term bond funds may face redemption pressure, leading to selling pressure on Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. Wealth management products are undergoing rectification of net - value smoothing methods, reducing their positions in these bonds. The full implementation of the new insurance I9 accounting standard in 2026 may suppress the demand for long - term bonds [2][3]. - **Low net supply, potential increase from small and medium - sized banks**: From 2024 - 2025, the net financing of state - owned banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds was significantly reduced and may remain low in the future. Although the capital adequacy ratios of joint - stock, city, and rural commercial banks are above the regulatory requirements, they have shown a downward trend this year. If interest rates remain low next year, small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance [63]. 3.4 2026, Focus on Trading, Limited Value in Downgrading - **Credit spread characteristics**: The credit spread of medium - and long - term AAA - rated Tier 2 and perpetual bonds still has an upper limit and a lower limit. In 2025, the credit spread of 3 - year bonds had a slightly lower central value and a compressed fluctuation range; the central values of 5 - year and 10 - year bonds increased, with the 5 - year bond's fluctuation range narrowing and the 10 - year bond's upper and lower limits rising [68][69][73]. - **Trading difficulties**: The yield of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds has been oscillating in a narrow range at a low level, and the "amplification of interest rate fluctuations" attribute has weakened year - on - year, increasing trading difficulties. In 2026, more precise timing is needed to enhance returns [81][84]. - **Low downgrading value**: The credit risk of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds is controllable, but the cost - effectiveness of short - term and low - grade bonds has decreased significantly. In the future, short - term downgrading may not yield significant excess returns [92][95].

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 01 日 [Table_Title] 信用利差低位还能持续多久 [Table_Title2] 2025 信用月报之十一 [Table_Summary] 11 月，信用债收益率普遍上行，高评级品种、3Y 和 10Y 表现相对 较弱。信用利差走势分化，1Y 利差基本持平，3Y 利差走扩 3- 6bp，AA+及以下 5Y 利差则收窄 5-8bp。 信用债买盘力量由强转弱，1 年以内成交占比持续上升。分机构 看，11 月基金净买入信用债规模仍较大，而理财、其他资管产品、 货基净买入信用债规模均同比下降。其中，基金净买入 3-5 年信用 债 208亿元，占比达19%，背后或有摊余债基的配置需求推动，11 月摊余债基封闭期 63 个月、60 个月产品打开规模约 364 亿元。 2025年 7月中旬以来，信用利差整体呈现低位震荡格局。往后看， 信用利差低位还能维持多久、哪些因素可能触发信用利差走扩、信 用利差低位震荡期如何配置，都是市场关心的问题。我们以史为 鉴，以期为信用债投资提供指引。 第二，信用利差低位震荡阶段，各品种表现分化，性价比较高且 ...

Core Insights - The latest fund market data from Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges shows that as of the end of August, the total number of ETFs in Shanghai is 736 with a total market value of 37,161.16 billion yuan, while Shenzhen has 531 ETFs with a total market value of 14,143.59 billion yuan, leading to a combined ETF scale exceeding 51,000 billion yuan, reflecting a steady increase from the previous month [1] Group 1: ETF Market Overview - The total market value of ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen has surpassed 51,000 billion yuan, indicating a robust growth trend [1] - Traditional leading brokerage firms such as Huatai Securities, Northeast Securities, China Galaxy, and Dongfang Wealth maintain their positions at the forefront of the ETF business scale [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Regulatory Changes - In the context of persistently low interest rates compressing fixed-income asset returns, ETFs are becoming a crucial tool for institutional asset allocation due to their efficient and flexible characteristics [1] - Recent regulatory discussions regarding new fund sales fee regulations are expected to enhance the cost and operational advantages of ETFs, potentially reshaping investor portfolios and opening long-term growth opportunities for the nascent ETF-FOF market in China [1]

Core Insights - The total market value of ETFs in Shanghai and Shenzhen has exceeded 5.1 trillion yuan, showing a steady increase from the previous month [1][2] - The low interest rate environment is driving institutional investors to utilize ETFs as a key asset allocation tool, enhancing their appeal [1][3] - Recent regulatory changes regarding fund sales fees are expected to further amplify the cost and operational advantages of ETFs, potentially reshaping investor portfolios [1][4] Market Overview - As of the end of August, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had 736 ETFs with a total market value of 37,161.16 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.86% increase [1] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 531 ETFs with a total market value of 14,143.59 billion yuan [1] - The combined ETF market in both exchanges reached 51,304.75 billion yuan, indicating a steady growth trend [1] Trading Activity - In August, the trading volume of equity ETFs in Shanghai was approximately 31,087.23 billion yuan, accounting for 47.49% of the total ETF trading volume [2] - The top three non-money market ETFs by trading volume in Shanghai were Short-term Bond ETF, Hong Kong Securities ETF, and Convertible Bond ETF, with trading volumes of 5,637.09 billion yuan, 4,130.80 billion yuan, and 2,484.97 billion yuan respectively [2] - In Shenzhen, the top three non-money market ETFs were the Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs, with trading volumes of 1,470.83 billion yuan, 1,422.43 billion yuan, and 1,407.04 billion yuan [2] Brokerage Performance - The leading brokerages in Shanghai for ETF trading in August were Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, Guotai Junan, Huabao Securities, and Dongfang Securities, maintaining their positions from the previous month [2] - In Shenzhen, the top brokerages for ETF trading were Northeast Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Dongfang Securities, Dongwu Securities, and Founder Securities [2] Future Growth Potential - The current low interest rate environment is pushing investors to seek new asset allocation strategies, with ETFs emerging as a significant vehicle for "fixed income plus" and Smart Beta strategies [3] - Recent regulatory proposals aim to lower subscription and redemption fees, which could enhance the attractiveness of ETFs and encourage greater allocation in ETF-FOF products [3][4] - The potential shift in investor behavior towards long-term holding of funds is expected to benefit the ETF market significantly [4]

Group 1 - The China Banking Index (399986) declined by 1.54% as of September 12, 2025, with major stocks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000) leading the drop at 3.68% [1] - The Bank ETF Index (512730) also fell by 1.40%, closing at 1.69 yuan, indicating a market pullback in the afternoon [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is seeking public opinion on a draft regulation aimed at reducing subscription fees for publicly raised securities investment funds, which may impact short-term fund yields [1] Group 2 - Open-source securities noted that residents prefer high liquidity products, with the "minimum holding period" type of financial products showing the most growth from January to May 2025 [2] - The new regulations may enhance the attractiveness of short-term financial products, which are expected to benefit from the "deposit migration" trend, leading to accelerated growth in scale [2] - The Bank ETF Index closely tracks the China Banking Index, providing investors with analytical tools to assess the performance of various industry companies [2] Group 3 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Banking Index include China Merchants Bank (600036), Industrial Bank (601166), and others, collectively accounting for 65% of the index [3]

Group 1 - Zhongyin Securities has appointed Zhou Quan as the new chairman, bringing extensive management experience from the Bank of China, particularly in asset-liability management and risk control [1] - This leadership change is expected to inject new vitality into corporate governance and strengthen risk management capabilities within the company [1] - The shift in leadership may prompt industry peers to enhance their governance structures, reflecting ongoing reforms in the financial sector and potentially improving market stability expectations [1] Group 2 - The revised regulations for public fund sales management now stipulate that all redemption fees will belong to the fund's assets, encouraging sales institutions to shift from "traffic" income to "retention" income [2] - This change is anticipated to enhance long-term performance for fund companies and boost investor confidence, while also promoting higher service quality from sales institutions [2] - The new rules are likely to guide long-term capital allocation, contributing to the healthy development of the capital market and the professionalization of the wealth management industry [2] Group 3 - The resignation of veteran fund manager Zou Xi from Rongtong Fund, who has managed multiple funds since 2001, signals a trend of talent mobility within the public fund industry [3] - The departure of seasoned managers amidst a bull market highlights a generational shift, with younger managers stepping in, which may reshape investment styles and impact fund performance [3] - The public fund industry is currently at a crossroads of compensation reform and market cycles, leading to increased turnover among fund managers and a potential reassessment of governance capabilities by investors [3] Group 4 - In September, nearly 100 new funds are set to launch, with equity funds dominating the market, particularly passive index and enhanced index products, indicating strong demand for index investments [4][5] - The continuous expansion of ETFs and the introduction of new indices by China Securities Index Co. reflect a trend towards more refined and strategic index investment [4][5] - The active issuance of funds suggests that institutions recognize current market valuations, which may attract new capital and optimize the investor structure [5]