Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 30, 2026, the restart of the maintenance devices such as Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE led to a rise in the plastics operating rate to around 90%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the plastics market will fluctuate strongly in the short - term. However, the improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited, so the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices on January 30 increased the plastics operating rate to around 90%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The increase in crude oil prices is due to cold - driven diesel heating demand and the geopolitical situation in Iran. New production capacities of plastics were put into operation in January 2026. The downstream demand is expected to continue to decline, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions. The lowest price was 6945 yuan/ton, the highest was 7139 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7014 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The position volume decreased by 9081 lots to 503743 lots [2]. Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from -50 to +100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 30, the plastics operating rate rose to around 90% after the restart of Maoming Petrochemical's HDPE and other maintenance devices, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 30, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76%. Orders and raw material inventory of agricultural films and packaging films decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 30,000 tons to 445,000 tons, 115,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $69/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $700/ton and $685/ton respectively [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月29日 【行情分析】 1月29日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月 23日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降1.4个百分点至39.53%，农膜订单基本稳定，处于近年同期中性水 平，农膜原料库存基本稳定，包装膜订单小幅回升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年农历同期偏低位 水平。临近月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，寒冷天气推动柴 油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解，加上伊朗地缘局势升温，原油价格上涨。供应上，新增产能50万 吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）FDPE和30万吨/年的裕龙石化LDPE/EVA在2026年1月投产。近期塑料开工率略有 下降。地膜集中需求尚未开启，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞， 农膜价格继续稳定，部分行业进入淡季，预计后续下游开工率下降，临近春节放假，节前备货有限， 终端工厂刚需采购为主。低估值、寒冷天气及伊朗地缘局势推动下，化工板块情绪好转，塑料短期 跟随市场情绪偏强震荡，只是塑料供需格局改善有限，现货跟进有限，基差走低，塑料反弹可持续 性谨慎 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 28, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Driven by low valuation, cold weather and the geopolitical situation in Iran, the sentiment of the chemical sector improved, and plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term. However, the improvement of the plastics supply - demand pattern was limited, the spot follow - up was limited, the basis weakened, and the sustainability of the plastics rebound should be treated with caution. Due to the new production capacity of plastics put into operation recently, the operating rate was higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film had not started yet, so the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the overall still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Cold weather increased diesel heating demand, and the geopolitical situation in Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film had not started, and the downstream operating rate was expected to decline. Plastics followed the market sentiment to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution, and the L - PP spread was expected to decline [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6885 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6992 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6967 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.31%. The position increased by 10434 lots to 531194 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6820 - 7170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6850 - 8190 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 28, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 23, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 450,000 tons, 110,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction was fast, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose above $67 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $700 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $685 per ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 27, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 2 were added, causing the plastic operating rate to drop to around 89%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. The cost - end factors like cold weather and the tense situation in Iran have pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. Cold weather and the tense situation in Iran pushed up the crude oil price. New production capacities were put into operation. The plastic is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the sustainability of the rebound should be treated with caution. The L - PP spread is expected to decline. [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract oscillated with increased positions, with a minimum price of 6,831 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6,920 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6,899 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.23%. The position increased by 5,747 lots to 520,760 lots. [2] Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 60 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,720 - 7,070 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,650 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,840 - 8,190 yuan/ton. [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 27, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to around 89%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was also stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly, but the overall PE downstream operating rate was still at a relatively low level in the lunar calendar of recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 60,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in the same period of recent years. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract dropped to 65 US dollars/barrel. The ethylene price in Northeast Asia remained flat at 705 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat at 685 US dollars/ton week - on - week. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On January 23, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price dropped due to increased inventory. New production capacity was put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate decreased slightly. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and the terminal demand has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and plastic will fluctuate in a range. The L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated upward, with a closing price of 6865 yuan/ton, a gain of 1.87%. The position increased by 3532 lots to 519056 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with a price change range of -0 to +150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6720 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8600 - 9280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 23, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 23, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 1.4 percentage points week-on-week to 39.53%, still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The agricultural film orders were basically stable, and the raw material inventory was basically stable. The packaging film orders increased slightly [4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons week-on-week to 500,000 tons, 35,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but average recently. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $65/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week-on-week at $690/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to fluctuate in a range recently. Due to new plastic production capacities coming on - stream, a higher plastics operating rate than PP, and a continuous decline in agricultural film orders, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow. The improvement in the plastics supply - demand situation is limited, and downstream operating rates are expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The recent rebound in crude oil prices was driven by factors such as the temporary shutdown of a Kazakhstan oilfield, the postponed restart of CPC3 SPM, and increased heating oil demand due to cold weather. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream operating rates are expected to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make purchases based on刚需 [1]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased in position, fluctuated, and rose. The lowest price was 6,666 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,818 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,814 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 2.62%. The open interest increased by 11,162 lots to 515,524 lots [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - Most prices in the PE spot market rose, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 150 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6,600 - 6,970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,820 - 8,040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On January 22, new maintenance units such as the second line of Yulong Petrochemical's HDPE were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand side: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93% compared to the previous week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 540,000 tons compared to the previous day, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $65 per barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710 per ton compared to the previous period, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $690 per ton compared to the previous period [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 21, 2026, the plastic maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of about 91%, at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate dropped to 40.93%, and the agricultural film orders continued to decline. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. With the easing of the Iran situation, the crude oil price declined. New plastic production capacity was put into operation recently, and it is expected that the plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread will decline [1]. - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased to 504,362 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, and the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The Iran situation eased, and the crude oil price declined. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased by 9150 lots to 504,362 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21, the plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, the agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, and was at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price dropped by $10/ton to $690/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics industry is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend in the near - term, with the L - PP spread likely to decline due to new production capacity, higher plastics operating rates compared to PP, and continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 91%, a moderately high level. As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate remained at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The easing of the Iran situation caused a drop in crude oil prices. New production capacity has been put into operation recently, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, with limited pre - holiday stocking [1][4] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract decreased by 0.90% to close at 6640 yuan/ton, with an increase of 9748 lots in open interest to 495212 lots [2] - Spot: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with LLDPE at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 20, the restart of Shanghai Petrochemical's overhauled units raised the plastics operating rate to about 91%, a moderately high level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16, the PE downstream operating rate dropped to 40.93%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and packaging film orders slightly declining [4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory on Tuesday was 560,000 tons, the same as the previous day and 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but average recently, at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64 per barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices remained unchanged at $710 and $700 per ton respectively [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and orders for agricultural films continued to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has fallen due to the easing of the situation in Iran. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range in the near future. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added on January 16, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day, petrochemical inventory reduction was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the crude oil price has fallen. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78%. The trading volume was between 6685 - 6857 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 3981 lots to 471487 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the range of increase or decrease between - 150 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction after the New Year's Day was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton [4].