| 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 策略建议 风险点 | | | 供应：全国螺纹周产量214.65万吨（环比-2.63%，同比+33.66%），全国热卷周 | | | 产量325.24万吨（环比+3.06%，同比+4.82%）。螺纹钢减产，热卷增产。 | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费194.8万吨（环比+2.56%，同比-10.79%），热卷表观消费 | | | 321.27万吨（环比+2.07%，同比+0.84%）。螺纹钢和热卷需求均环比小幅回升 | | | 库存：螺纹总库存607.04万吨（环比+3.38%，同比-6.87%），热卷总库存361.44 | | | 万吨（环比+1.11%，同比-18.27%）。螺纹钢累库趋缓，热卷小幅增库。 | | | 宏观不 | | | 成本：铁水日产小幅回升0.09万吨至240.75万吨，同比高出去年16.29万吨，原 | | 螺纹 | 及预期、 震荡偏强 料端形成支撑。且淡季逐步转向旺季，钢厂维持利润情况下，难以形成明显负反 | | 热卷 | 需求不 | | | 馈压力。 及预期 | | | 总结：宏观方面，美联储 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overall global macro warming, despite support from the weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish outlook as the positive macro environment from the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks outweighs the slightly negative industry situation during the off - season [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Decline [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias [1] - Core logic: The US economy underperformed expectations in July, with CPI lower than expected, leading to rising Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index fell below 98, supporting the gold price. However, the overall global macro warming exerts pressure on the gold price. Technically, focus on the 3400 mark of New York gold for the battle between bulls and bears [3] Copper - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a strong bias [1] - Core logic: The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, created a positive macro environment. Although it is the industry off - season with a slight increase in inventory, the positive macro factors are expected to drive the copper price to run strongly. Technically, focus on the technical support at the 79,000 mark [5]

请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 每日报告 行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 23 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 宏观氛围持续偏强，22 日黑色系商品以及双硅均涨停收盘，乐观情绪带动下 铝产业链偏强延续强势，氧化铝则因受益于产能过剩最为严重，价格低位弹性显 著等因素继续大幅上涨逾 6%，尾盘报收于 3513，刷新年内高点；沪铝走势相对平 稳，2509 上涨 0.75%报 20900 元/吨，指数总持仓增加 19572 至 694390 手，08-09 升水收窄 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment has improved, leading to an overall increase in rubber futures, although short-term weather disruptions are hindering rubber production and there is a slight decline in downstream tire demand, limiting the rebound potential for rubber prices [1] Group 1 - All rubber futures have risen due to improved macroeconomic conditions [1] - Short-term weather disturbances are affecting rubber production [1] - Downstream tire demand has slightly decreased [1] - The rebound potential for rubber prices is considered limited [1]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 66.48 | 66.47 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | | WTI | 64.60 | 64.58 | 0.02 | 0.03% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 475.90 | 467.90 | 8.00 | 1.71% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 | -1.52% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -0.02 | -1.08% | | | SC MI-M3 | 6.90 | 7.00 | -0.10 | -1.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.01 | -0.53% | | | EFS | 1.70 | 1.72 | -0.0 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 近期宏观氛围再度相对转暖，特朗普提出要削减针对中国的高额关税，并且连续在关税问题上给自己找台阶下，同时他也表态无意解 雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此外普京也表态愿意在一定条件下就停火开始谈判。宏观的再度缓和，使得金、铜价格出现了相对明显的分 化。 核心观点 1、上周金铜表现分化 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 0.33%，白银 上涨 1.46%；沪金2506合约 下跌 0.48%，沪银2506 合约上涨 1.47%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+3.04%、+1.71%。 2、利好因素叠加，铜价延续反弹 近期宏观氛围相对转暖，特朗普提出要削减针对中国的高额关税，同时他也表态无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此外普京也表 态愿意在一定条件下就停火开始谈判。因此宏观氛围相对改善，同时铜矿在供应端的干扰也对铜价形成了脉冲，主要在于 Antamina铜矿发生安全事故而临时停产，虽然后来有报道指出矿山即将重启，但是这也使得市场对目前铜矿供应的干扰产生 了担忧。 3、关税政策转向，贵金属显著回调 上周海外宏观环境整体转向积极，美国关税政 ...