Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - atmosphere has improved. Fed Chairman Powell signaled dovishness at the Jackson Hole Symposium, boosting the expectation of a September interest rate cut and commodity prices. The upcoming Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit and approaching military parade also contribute to an optimistic market atmosphere. - For steel products, the weekly production of rebar decreased while demand increased, and the inventory accumulation slowed down. The production and demand of hot - rolled coils both increased, and the inventory continued to rise slightly. The overall off - season inventory accumulation is within expectations, and as the off - season turns to the peak season, the terminal demand is expected to pick up, and the supply - demand structure of finished products is expected to improve. With the strong raw material end, the cost support has shifted upwards. It is expected that steel prices will have a phased upward trend after the previous correction and should be treated with a bullish bias. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil has increased slightly, and the arrival volume has slightly declined. The supply pressure is not significant. Pig iron production remains at a high level. The supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent. Considering the relatively warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, iron ore prices are expected to remain firm in the short term and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. - For coking coal and coke, the coal mine production has slightly increased, and the inventory pressure is not obvious. The seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the profit of coke enterprises has recovered, with a slight increase in production. With the current warm macro - atmosphere and the expectation of improved terminal demand, coking coal and coke prices are expected to remain firm and fluctuate with a bullish bias on a weekly basis. [3][4][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 01 Market Review - The industry is still in the off - season inventory accumulation stage. Rebar production decreased while demand increased, and the inventory increase slowed down. Hot - rolled coil production and demand both increased, with a slight continuous inventory increase. The raw material end showed signs of pressure at high levels, and the market was in a wait - and - see mood. Steel prices were weakly adjusted in a volatile manner, with futures prices falling more than spot prices, and the basis widened. [9] 02 Steel Supply - Demand Analysis - **Production**: The weekly production of national rebar was 214.65 tons (down 2.63% month - on - month and up 33.66% year - on - year), and the weekly production of hot - rolled coils was 325.24 tons (up 3.06% month - on - month and up 4.82% year - on - year). Both blast furnace and electric furnace rebar production decreased slightly. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates also decreased slightly. The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils both shrank. [15][17][28] - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of rebar was 1.948 million tons (up 2.56% month - on - month and down 10.79% year - on - year), and the apparent consumption of hot - rolled coils was 3.2127 million tons (up 2.07% month - on - month and up 0.84% year - on - year). [35][37] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory accumulation slowed down, with both social and factory inventories increasing. The total rebar inventory was 6.0704 million tons (up 3.38% month - on - month and down 6.87% year - on - year). The hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly, with social inventory rising and factory inventory decreasing. The total hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.6144 million tons (up 1.11% month - on - month and down 18.27% year - on - year). [41][46] - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 18.33% month - on - month and decreased by 14.85% year - on - year, while the land market remained sluggish. In July 2025, automobile production and sales were 2.591 million and 2.593 million respectively, down 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month and up 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. From January to July 2025, automobile production and sales were 18.235 million and 18.269 million respectively, up 12.7% and 12% year - on - year. [49][52] 03 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 100.85 (up 0.04% month - on - month and up 0.47% year - on - year). The shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 26.927 million tons (up 0.86% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.933 million tons (down 3.36% month - on - month and down 6.76% year - on - year). [59] - **Demand**: Pig iron daily production was 2.4075 million tons (up 0.09 million tons month - on - month and up 16.29 million tons year - on - year). The port clearance volume of iron ore at 45 ports was 3.2574 million tons (down 2.67% month - on - month and up 7.64% year - on - year). [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 iron ore ports was 138.452 million tons (up 0.19% month - on - month and down 9.93% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 90.6547 million tons (down 0.78% month - on - month and up 0.73% year - on - year). [70] 04 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines was 85.21% (up 1.77% month - on - month and down 6.34% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 153,500 tons (down 7.03% month - on - month and down 10.33% year - on - year). [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction transaction rate was 82.05% (down 6.46% week - on - week and up 7.30% year - on - year), and the weekly coking coal auction transaction rate was 73.64% (down 10.28% week - on - week and up 28.36% year - on - year). [79] - **Coke Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking enterprises was + 23 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan/ton month - on - month and up 60 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate was 74.42% (up 0.11% month - on - month and up 3.16% year - on - year). [86] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 8.2371 million tons (down 0.68% month - on - month and up 26.43% year - on - year), and the coking coal port inventory was 2.6149 million tons (up 2.35% month - on - month and down 26.42% year - on - year). The coke inventory of independent coking enterprises was 394,700 tons (up 0.41% month - on - month and down 15.82% year - on - year), and the coke port inventory was 2.1462 million tons (down 0.23% month - on - month and up 12.24% year - on - year). [92][98] - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi was 1,470 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week and down 230 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,440 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year). [104] 05 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar fluctuated within a narrow range. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke widened, and the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread contracted at a high level. [106][112]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is expected to decline in the short - term, with a short - term bearish outlook due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overall global macro warming, despite support from the weakening US dollar and rising Fed rate - cut expectations [1][3] - Copper is expected to rise in the short - term, with a short - term bullish outlook as the positive macro environment from the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks outweighs the slightly negative industry situation during the off - season [1][5] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Short - term view: Decline [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a weak bias [1] - Core logic: The US economy underperformed expectations in July, with CPI lower than expected, leading to rising Fed rate - cut expectations. The US dollar index fell below 98, supporting the gold price. However, the overall global macro warming exerts pressure on the gold price. Technically, focus on the 3400 mark of New York gold for the battle between bulls and bears [3] Copper - Short - term view: Rise [1] - Medium - term view: Oscillation [1] - Intraday view: Oscillation with a strong bias [1] - Core logic: The joint statement of the Sino - US Stockholm economic and trade talks on August 12, 2025, created a positive macro environment. Although it is the industry off - season with a slight increase in inventory, the positive macro factors are expected to drive the copper price to run strongly. Technically, focus on the technical support at the 79,000 mark [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: July 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The macro atmosphere remains strongly positive, with the black series commodities and ferrosilicon reaching their daily limit on the 22nd. Driven by the optimistic sentiment, the aluminum industry chain continues to be strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly by over 6%, reaching a new high for the year, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. Currently in the traditional off-season, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The overall fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Macro atmosphere drives the aluminum industry chain to remain strong. Alumina prices have risen significantly, while Shanghai aluminum has shown relatively stable performance. The 2509 contract of Shanghai aluminum has risen by 0.75% to 20,900 yuan/ton, and the total open interest of the index has increased by 19,572 to 694,390 lots. The premium between the 08 and 09 contracts has narrowed by 5 to 25, and the AD-AL negative spread is reported at -490. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side is still affected by the off-season. The start-up rate of the aluminum processing sector remains low, and the high absolute price of aluminum is expected to have a negative impact on terminal consumption. The average profit of aluminum smelting remains at a high level of over 4,200 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals of aluminum have not changed significantly, and the current strength is mainly supported by policy expectations, following the general upward trend of the sector. The upside space is temporarily limited, and in the short term, it is expected to remain strong, with attention paid to the resistance level near the previous high [8] 2. Industry News - China's primary aluminum production in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. Due to the start of the second-phase replacement of electrolytic aluminum from Shandong to Yunnan, the production of the original plant was reduced, resulting in a slight month-on-month decrease in production. In July, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains at a high level, and the second-phase replacement project in Yunnan has been put into operation, leading to a recovery in the industry's start-up rate [9][10] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has emphasized the importance of promoting the stable, healthy, and high-quality development of the real estate market. Local governments are required to take responsibility, make full use of their autonomy in real estate regulation policies, and implement targeted measures to stabilize the market [10] - Alcoa has announced that the restart of its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain has been postponed to mid-2026, with an expected loss of up to $110 million. The restart was originally in progress but was delayed due to a nationwide power outage in Spain in April. After reviewing the government's report on the power outage and receiving commitments on grid reliability and energy competitiveness, the joint venture has decided to resume the restart project [10]

Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment has improved, leading to an overall increase in rubber futures, although short-term weather disruptions are hindering rubber production and there is a slight decline in downstream tire demand, limiting the rebound potential for rubber prices [1] Group 1 - All rubber futures have risen due to improved macroeconomic conditions [1] - Short-term weather disturbances are affecting rubber production [1] - Downstream tire demand has slightly decreased [1] - The rebound potential for rubber prices is considered limited [1]

原油产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 宙 扬 Z0020680 | 原油价格及价差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品中 | 6月9日 | 6月6日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | Brent | 66.48 | 66.47 | 0.01 | 0.02% | | | WTI | 64.60 | 64.58 | 0.02 | 0.03% | 美元/桶 | | ਟ | 475.90 | 467.90 | 8.00 | 1.71% | 元/桶 | | Brent M1-M3 | 1.30 | 1.32 | -0.02 | -1.52% | 美元/桶 | | WTI M1-M3 | 1.83 | 1.85 | -0.02 | -1.08% | | | SC MI-M3 | 6.90 | 7.00 | -0.10 | -1.43% | 元/桶 | | Brent-WTI | 1.88 | 1.89 | -0.01 | -0.53% | | | EFS | 1.70 | 1.72 | -0.0 ...

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要： 近期宏观氛围再度相对转暖，特朗普提出要削减针对中国的高额关税，并且连续在关税问题上给自己找台阶下，同时他也表态无意解 雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此外普京也表态愿意在一定条件下就停火开始谈判。宏观的再度缓和，使得金、铜价格出现了相对明显的分 化。 核心观点 1、上周金铜表现分化 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 0.33%，白银 上涨 1.46%；沪金2506合约 下跌 0.48%，沪银2506 合约上涨 1.47%。主要工业金属价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动+3.04%、+1.71%。 2、利好因素叠加，铜价延续反弹 近期宏观氛围相对转暖，特朗普提出要削减针对中国的高额关税，同时他也表态无意解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，此外普京也表 态愿意在一定条件下就停火开始谈判。因此宏观氛围相对改善，同时铜矿在供应端的干扰也对铜价形成了脉冲，主要在于 Antamina铜矿发生安全事故而临时停产，虽然后来有报道指出矿山即将重启，但是这也使得市场对目前铜矿供应的干扰产生 了担忧。 3、关税政策转向，贵金属显著回调 上周海外宏观环境整体转向积极，美国关税政 ...