影响市场走势的主要原因是宏观氛围先强后弱及基本面弱势。节后宏观氛围先强后弱，假期期间原油价 格震荡走高，节后化工品整体先偏强，对PVC期货有所带动，但随后宏观整体转弱，PVC期货也跟随回 调。PVC基本面表现不佳，对PVC粉市场形成利空，假期期间PVC粉行业开工维持高位，下游处于假期 状态，节后恢复较慢，社会库存明显增加，华东及华南社会库存达到历史高位，而上游由于节前接单较 多，压力暂时不大。 下周来看，供需基本面延续偏弱，但宏观方面或有支撑，预计下周PVC粉价格或区间震荡。 心态方面：近期商品氛围先强后转弱，下周重要会议临近，部分政策预期存在，关注市场预期是否出现 转折。 PVC粉：基本面偏弱 节后价格重心下移 【导语】节后国内PVC粉市场区间震荡，基本符合节前预期。下周PVC粉基本面延续弱势，宏观氛围或 有支撑，价格预计偏弱震荡。 本周国内PVC粉市场价格区间震荡，价格重心小幅下移。截至2月26日，国内电石法PVC粉SG-5周均价 4720元/吨，较节前下跌38元/吨，跌幅0.80%，跌幅变化不大。下游需求处在恢复状态，周内价格下跌 时部分成交改善，整体交投氛围一般。 供应端：下周检修企业有限，检修损失量 ...

英国政府扩大对俄制裁名单中包含中国实体，外交部称，中方一贯反对没有国际法依据、未经联合国安 理会授权的单边制裁，对英方有关做法强烈不满:中俄的正常交往合作不应当受到干扰和影响，中方将 采取必要措施，坚决维护自身的正当合法权益。 【黄金期货行情表现】 2月26日，沪金主力暂报1146.48元/克，涨幅0.00%，今日沪金主力开盘价1148.68元/克，截至目前最高 1154.46元/克，最低1144.08元/克。 【宏观消息】 春节后金价呈现震荡运行，海外围绕5200美元震荡，国内围绕1150元震荡。节后内外宏观氛围有所回 暖，全球股市有所回升，金价承压运行，但海外地缘政治依旧对金价有支撑。新华社华盛顿2月25日电 美国财政部25日宣布，对30多个实体、油轮及个人实施制裁，以打击美方所谓伊朗"非法销售石油"以及 弹道导弹和无人机生产。技术上，可关注伦敦金5200美元关口多空博弈。 美国贸易代表格里尔近日表示，将继续推进对中国履行中美第一阶段经贸协议情况301调查，并可能采 取关税措施。商务部新闻发言人对此表示，中方希望美方客观、理性看待第一阶段协议的实施问题，不 要"甩锅推责"，更不要借机"生事""挑事"。中方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, and orders for agricultural films continued to decline. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has fallen due to the easing of the situation in Iran. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range in the near future. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - New maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added on January 16, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and packaging film orders decreased slightly. After the New Year's Day, petrochemical inventory reduction was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The situation in Iran has cooled down, and the crude oil price has fallen. There has been new plastic production capacity put into operation recently. The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated downward, closing at 6695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.78%. The trading volume was between 6685 - 6857 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 3981 lots to 471487 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the range of increase or decrease between - 150 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6650 - 6970 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8900 - 9210 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6870 - 8290 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On January 16, new maintenance devices such as Guoneng Yulin LDPE were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased by 40,000 tons to 490,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory reduction after the New Year's Day was good, and the current inventory is at a low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $64/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement, and the upward space for polyolefins is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastic开工率 remains around 87% (neutral level), while PP开工率 drops to around 79% (neutral - low level). After the New Year's Day holiday as of the week of January 9, PE下游开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% (still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years), and PP下游开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6% (at a relatively low level in the same period over the years). The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price rebounded slightly due to geopolitical factors. There are new production capacities for both PE and PP. With the end of the agricultural film peak season and reduced demand in the north, the downstream开工率 is expected to decline. Although the macro environment is positive, it has limited impact on the polyolefin supply - demand pattern. [4] 3.2 Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic: The number of maintenance devices has changed little, and the开工率 remains around 87% (a neutral level). - PP: With the addition of maintenance devices such as the second line of Fujian United, the enterprise开工率 dropped 3 percentage points to around 79% (a relatively low level). [16] 3.3 Plastic and PP下游开工率 - PE demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 increased 0.06 percentage points to 41.21%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream开工率 is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. - PP demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the downstream开工率 decreased 0.10 percentage points to 52.6%. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.22 percentage points to 42.92%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. [22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price has increased to catch up, and the basis of the 05 contract has risen to - 24 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level. [26] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventory - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday decreased 0.5 tons to 57 tons week - on - week, 1 ton higher than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the New Year's Day this year was not significant, and the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. [30]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色普涨 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜高开，主力期价一度逼近 10.4 万关口，随后呈现高位震 荡态势，日内持仓量上升明显，沪铜持仓量已逼近 70 万张。周末归 来，市场宏观氛围依旧较好，日内无论是商品还是股市呈现普涨态 势。产业端，SMM 报道，铜价持续高位运行，对下游采购情绪形成显 著压制出库节奏疲软，国内电解铜社会库存已连续六周累库。 沪铝 今日沪铝冲高回落，持仓量上升明显。周一宏观氛围较好，有色 板块普涨，但铝日内表现较 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For the gold 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bullish, and the reference view is to wait and see due to the cooling macro - atmosphere and the rising short - term hedging demand [1][3] - For the copper 2602 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillatory and slightly bearish, and the reference view is long - term bullish as the cooling macro - atmosphere makes short - term bulls more willing to close their positions [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold (AU) - Last week, the gold price oscillated upwards. Shanghai gold reached above 1000 yuan again, and New York gold reached above 4500 US dollars. The cooling macro - atmosphere increased the hedging demand for gold, providing support for the price. Technically, attention can be paid to the support at 1000 yuan for Shanghai gold and 4500 US dollars for New York gold [3] Copper (CU) - After the New Year's Day holiday, the copper price rose first and then fell, generally running above 100,000 yuan. The short - term macro - atmosphere dominated the copper price trend. Since Wednesday, the cooling macro - atmosphere made funds more willing to close positions, leading to the decline of the copper price from its high. At the industrial level, as the copper price rose above 100,000 yuan, the social inventory of domestic electrolytic copper increased significantly, reflecting the industry's resistance to high copper prices. In the short term, the divergence between bulls and bears intensified, and the copper price fluctuated at a high level. Attention can be paid to the support at 100,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating of soybeans (domestic), soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs is ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently. The rating system is based on the star - level description where red stars represent a predicted trend of rising, and three stars mean a clearer long/short trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1][10]. Core Viewpoints - The overall situation of the agricultural products market is affected by various factors such as policies, weather, and market sentiment. Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies, and continuous attention should be paid to fundamental and policy changes [2][3][4]. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans (Domestic) - Domestic soybeans are oscillating strongly. The auction this week shows good trading volume, strong trading prices, and premium transactions. Policy - side transactions support the price, which is stable and strong. Continuous attention to fundamentals and policies is needed [2]. Soybeans & Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were closed for the Christmas holiday, and the U.S. soybeans opened at 22:30 Beijing time today. The market is worried about import clearance speed, causing the price to rise. Attention should be paid to U.S. soybean exports and the impact of South American La Nina weather. Recently, soybean meal prices will follow U.S. soybeans to oscillate, waiting for South American weather changes [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Soybean and palm oil are rising with a reduction in positions. The macro - sentiment of commodities is improving, and attention should be paid to price rebounds due to the macro - atmosphere. There are concerns about tightened soybean clearance policies. Palm oil's high - frequency data shows a mitigation of the bearish fundamental atmosphere. After recent declines and the release of negative factors, U.S. soybeans have stabilized and rebounded. The short - term risk of South American crop weather is low, which requires continuous attention [4]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Domestic rapeseed futures prices are rising as the market expects stricter import inspection and quarantine policies for oilseeds. The demand for Canadian rapeseed crushing has only slightly increased compared to the same period last year, and poor exports still suppress its prices. Australian rapeseed imports have not been crushed yet. The continuous inventory decline of domestic rapeseed supports near - month futures prices. Attention should be paid to the possibility of improved China - Canada relations and the opening of Australian rapeseed commercial purchases. Overall, economic and trade trends are the biggest variable for rapeseed. In a state of global rapeseed oversupply, the medium - term strategy is to short on rebounds, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [6]. Corn - Today, the spot prices of corn in Northeast China and North Ports are stable and strong. The weather affects farmers' reluctance to sell in the Northeast, and downstream enterprises have partially established safety stocks. The number of remaining vehicles at corn deep - processing enterprises this morning is 314, showing a decline. After the phased supply - demand mismatch is alleviated, there is no obvious increase in downstream purchases. Future attention should be on the Northeast grain - selling progress and corn and wheat auctions. The Dalian corn futures 03 contract will oscillate in the short term [7]. Live Pigs - The main live - pig futures contract 03 rose sharply today and closed above the 60 - day moving average. The overall index showed a situation of increased trading volume. After two months of low - level consolidation, beware of the price entering a rebound channel. In the long - term, the industry is still in the process of increasing slaughter due to previous production capacity recovery, and pig prices are expected to remain low. The current price increase is regarded as a rebound [8]. Eggs - The egg futures prices strengthened again during trading. On the spot side, the price in Hebei was raised for the second consecutive day. The real - world fundamentals of the egg - laying hen industry are gradually improving, and the long - term egg - laying hen inventory is expected to decline. The market has gradually accepted the change from a pessimistic to an optimistic expectation for eggs, which is likely to form a consensus. In the long - term, a long - position thinking should be adopted, while being vigilant against the risk of a rapid increase in futures prices due to pre - emptive trading by funds [9].

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

Report Overview - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Date: December 15, 2025 [5] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided. Core Views Copper - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, copper prices dropped sharply by over 3000 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, copper prices stabilized and rebounded to the 92,500 yuan mark. As copper prices fell, the spot premium rose, indicating strong restocking willingness among downstream industries. Short - term copper price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, copper stabilized and rebounded above the 10 - day moving average and stood above the 5 - day moving average, and the support of the 5 - day moving average can be continuously monitored [7]. Aluminum - Friday night, due to weak overseas macro - atmosphere, aluminum prices dropped to the 21,600 yuan mark, and the trading volume decreased significantly. Today, aluminum prices stabilized and rebounded to the 21,900 yuan mark, but the trading volume continued to decline, showing strong short - term profit - taking willingness among funds. Short - term aluminum price trends are dominated by the macro - atmosphere, and continuous attention should be paid to macro changes. Technically, the pressure at the 22,000 yuan mark should be monitored [8]. Nickel - Friday night, nickel prices rose and then fell. Today, nickel prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the trading volume continued to increase. Macroscopically, the non - ferrous metals sector rebounded after reaching the bottom, but nickel prices showed little reaction. Industrially, the high inventory of port nickel ore decreased slowly, and the increase in the inventory of electrolytic nickel on the Shanghai Futures Exchange put pressure on futures prices. In the short term, the multi - empty game in the non - ferrous metals sector has intensified, and nickel is under pressure with increased positions, and is expected to maintain a weak operation [9]. Industry Dynamics Copper - As of December 15, 2025, the average price of SMM flat - copper premium was about 54 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium was about 82 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively compared with the annual average in 2024. The 2026 long - term order price of domestic trade electrolytic copper in East China increased by over 50 yuan/ton compared with 2025 [11]. Aluminum - On December 15, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 577,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons compared with last Monday [12]. Nickel - On December 15, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 114,500 - 120,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 117,350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 5,100 - 5,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [13]. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][15][16]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [26][28][30]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [49][38][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].