| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月26日 | | | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 息一 | な女女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ☆☆☆ | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 薬粕 | な女女 な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | な女女 | | | 鸡蛋 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆震荡偏强,本周的竞价拍卖,显示出来成交量较好,成交价格较强,且溢价成交。国产大豆政策端成 交情况表现好,给豆一价格带来一定的支撑,价格表现稳定偏强。持续关注基本面和政策的表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 CB0T大豆圣诞节假期休市,美豆延迟至今日北京时间22: ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Gold is expected to be strong in the short - term, with a core logic of a weakening macro atmosphere and rising risk - aversion demand [1][3] - Copper is expected to be strong in the long - term, due to a macro - easing environment, mine - end production cuts, and the implementation of interest rate cuts [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - Short - term view: Strong; Medium - term view: Oscillating; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the short - line. The price has been rising since last week, reaching near the $4400 mark on Monday night. After a dovish Fed meeting, the short - term market risk preference and liquidity increased, but on Friday night, the macro atmosphere worsened. The short - term impact of the meeting has been digested, and risk - aversion demand has risen rapidly, so the price may remain strong. Tonight's US non - farm data may affect short - term trends, and the $4400 mark is a technical resistance in the medium - to - long - term [1][3] Copper (CU) - Short - term view: Oscillating; Medium - term view: Strong; Intraday view: Oscillating and tending to be strong; Overall reference view: Strong in the long - line. After the Asian session yesterday, LME copper soared close to $11,900, and SHFE copper opened higher at night, approaching the 94,000 yuan mark. Then the price fell back, and the long - position closing intention was strong. The non - ferrous sector declined, but copper was resilient due to its strong financial properties. The sharp drop last Friday stimulated downstream replenishment demand, and the spot premium in Guangdong increased, indicating actual demand resilience. The short - term price volatility is large, and both sides tend to close positions. Tonight's US non - farm employment data may affect short - term trends, and the 5 - day moving average can be monitored [1][4]

投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色探底回升 核心观点 沪铜 周五夜盘海外宏观氛围走弱，铜价高位大幅下挫，沪铜一度跌超 3000 元/吨，持仓量下降明显。今日铜价企稳回升，主力期价回升至 9.25 万关口。产业层面，随着铜价下挫，周一现货升水明显回升， 反映了产业下游补库意愿较强。短期宏观氛围主导铜价走势，持续 关注宏观变化。技术上，短期沪铜在 10 日均线企稳回升，并站上 5 日均线，可持续关注 5 日均线支撑。 沪铝 周五夜盘海外宏观氛围走弱，铝价大 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - Copper prices retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5]. - Aluminum prices also retreated from their highs, with strong willingness among long - positions to close out. The movement of aluminum prices is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but is constrained by the industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Factors - After the Fed's interest - rate meeting last week, the Fed's dovish stance led to a weak US dollar index, which was positive for copper prices. On Friday night, the overseas macro - atmosphere suddenly deteriorated, causing a sharp decline in copper prices after they hit new highs [10]. 2. Copper 2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again. Before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, there was a strong willingness to close out positions, leading to a short - term decline in copper prices. After the meeting, with a dovish Fed, copper prices increased in volume. The overall trend of increasing positions and rising prices remained unchanged [5]. 2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - Last week, the port inventory of copper ore continued to rise from a low level and was close to the same - period level in previous years. On December 12, Mysteel's copper ore port inventory was 664,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 17,000 tons. Since November, the sulfuric acid price has been rising, and the upstream smelting profit has recovered significantly [26]. 2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 171,200 tons, a weekly increase of 6,700 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 613,100 tons, a weekly increase of 14,400 tons. The continuous rise in copper prices has significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [28]. 2.4 Downstream Primary Sector - In November, the capacity utilization rate of copper products rebounded month - on - month. As copper prices broke through upwards at the end of November, it is expected that the downstream's wait - and - see sentiment will rise again, and the capacity utilization rate in December may decline significantly [30]. 3. Aluminum 3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - This week, aluminum prices fluctuated, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance, mainly due to the constraints of industrial fundamentals. The macro - environment is relatively neutral for aluminum. The increase in aluminum prices has led to a rise in downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and the spot discounts of LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum have remained weak. On Friday, the cooling of the macro - atmosphere led to a significant decline in SHFE aluminum with a reduction in positions [6]. 3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 12, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.4354 million tons, a decrease of 1.4746 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.6554 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Last week, alumina continued to operate weakly, with the main contract price falling below 2,500. The profit of upstream electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, but on Friday night, the profit narrowed as aluminum prices retreated from their highs [45][46]. 3.3 Slowdown in Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory Reduction - On December 11, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 579,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous week; overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 525,500 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the previous week. The slow reduction of electrolytic aluminum inventory at a low level supports aluminum prices [49]. 3.4 Downstream Primary Sector - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline from a high level, mainly because the continuous rise in aluminum prices has suppressed downstream demand. The inventory of aluminum rods remained at a low level, with the factory inventory at 86,500 tons, a slight decrease of 5,600 tons from the previous week [54][57]. 4. Conclusion - Copper prices first declined during the week and then rose again, but on Friday night, they fell sharply due to a decline in global market risk appetite. Macro factors are positive while industry factors are negative, and macro forces dominate. Short - term copper prices follow the macro - atmosphere, and pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [5][59]. - Aluminum prices fluctuated this week, with a similar rhythm to copper but weaker performance. The movement is mainly dominated by the macro - atmosphere but constrained by industrial fundamentals. Pay attention to the support of the 20 - day moving average [6][59].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 12 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看强 核心逻辑：上周金价呈现上行态势，纽约金由周初的 4200 美元，拉升至周末的 4300 美元。上周最 核心的驱动因素是美联储 12 月议息会议。会议决定降息 25 基点，此外美联储宣布将重启资产负债 表扩张，共同打压美元并提振黄金。整体美联储表现偏鸽，短期市场风险偏好与流动性均明显回升， 资产普涨。周五夜盘，宏观氛围急转直下，海外股市和商品普跌，金价也呈现冲高回落态势，短期流 动性下降明显。短期市场在美联储议息会议后先涨后跌，已充分消化议息会议带来的影响，多空博弈 明显加剧，市场避险需求在短期快速上升，这也是为什么金价上周呈现明显的上行趋势且周五收盘仍 处于周内的高位。短期纽约金突破 4300 美元，上行动能较强，可持续关注 4300 美元关口支撑。 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Copper - Copper prices showed a weak fluctuation overnight, influenced by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and initiate short-term U.S. Treasury purchases [3][10] - The LME copper inventory decreased by 700 tons to 164,975 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,922 tons to 403,852 tons [10] - The overall outlook for copper prices is cautiously optimistic, supported by fundamentals (inventory) and macroeconomic conditions [10] Group 2: Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel prices fell by 0.51% to $14,675 per ton, while SHFE nickel prices dropped by 0.72% to 116,100 yuan per ton [4][11] - LME nickel inventory increased by 564 tons to 253,092 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 126 tons to 34,235 tons [11] - The nickel-iron and stainless steel supply chain shows a slight increase in nickel-iron prices, but the price ceiling remains limited [11] Group 3: Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight increase, with AO2601 closing at 2,509 yuan per ton, up 0.2% [6][12] - SHFE aluminum prices increased to 21,960 yuan per ton, with a 0.18% rise, while aluminum alloy prices rose by 0.64% to 20,981 yuan per ton [6][12] - The supply of alumina remains high, leading to continuous inventory pressure, while aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and copper price movements [6][13] Group 4: Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a weak fluctuation, with the main contract closing at 8,250 yuan per ton, down 2.19% [7][14] - Polysilicon prices increased slightly, with the main contract closing at 55,915 yuan per ton, up 1.62% [14] - The photovoltaic industry continues to experience high inventory levels and a downward price trend, with industrial silicon production reductions not meeting the decline in downstream demand [14] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures increased by 2.56% to 95,980 yuan per ton, while the average price for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 50 yuan to 92,700 yuan per ton [8][15] - Weekly lithium carbonate production increased by 74 tons to 21,939 tons, with lithium spodumene production rising by 120 tons [15] - The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,336 tons to 113,602 tons, but demand is showing signs of weakening, which may affect the pace of inventory reduction [15]

【铁矿】 铁矿 今日走势偏弱。 供应端，全球发运环比增加，大幅强于去年同期水平。国内到港量环比继续回落，略低于去年同期水平， 港口库存保持累库趋势并逼近年内高位。需求端，淡季终端需求处于低位，钢厂盈利情况较差，上周铁水继续减产，预计未来 保持季节性减产趋势，但降幅趋缓。海外降息预期升温，国内将要召开重要会议，整体宏观氛围偏暖。铁矿石基本面较为宽 松，短期部分矿种有流动性扰动，中长期来看随着供需逐步过剩，整体走势有震荡下行压力。 【焦炭】 日内价格偏弱震荡。市场对焦炭第二轮提降仍有预期，焦化利润一般，日产略微提升。焦炭库存小幅下降，目前下游少量按需 采购，库存变动不大，贸易商采购意愿一般。整体来看，碳元素供应充裕，下游铁水季节性回落，目前对原材料需求仍有韧 性，钢材利润水平一般，对于原材料压价情绪较浓。焦炭盘面升水，价格或偏弱震荡为主。 | | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURE | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年12月09日 | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ☆☆☆ | F3003925 Z0012043 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance in the long/short trend with poor operability on the current market, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with a driving force for downward trend but poor operability on the market [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, same as iron ore [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★★☆, indicating a clear bearish trend and the market is developing [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ☆☆☆, same as thread steel [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall steel market is under pressure. With the decline of hot metal production, the furnace materials are under pressure in the negative feedback pattern. The steel market is mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes need to be monitored [2] - The iron ore supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the seasonal decline of hot metal. The demand for raw materials has some resilience, but the steel mills have a strong willingness to reduce prices. The prices are likely to be weak and oscillating [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets have complex supply - demand situations. The silicon manganese inventory is slowly accumulating, and the silicon iron supply is decreasing with a small decline in inventory. The bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Situation**: The futures market continued to fall. The apparent demand for thread steel decreased, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coil both decreased, and the inventory decreased slowly with pressure to be relieved [2] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production continued to decline, the supply pressure was gradually relieved, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient, and the steel mills' profits were still poor. The real estate investment continued to decline sharply, the infrastructure growth rate continued to fall, the manufacturing PMI improved marginally, and the domestic demand was generally weak. The steel exports remained at a high level in November [2] - **Price Trend**: The steel prices were mainly in a range - bound oscillation, and the subsequent policy changes needed to be monitored [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global shipment of iron ore increased compared with the previous period, much stronger than the same period last year. The shipments from Australia and non - mainstream countries increased significantly, and the shipment from Brazil decreased from the high level but was still stronger than last year. The domestic arrival volume continued to decline, slightly lower than the same period last year [3] - **Demand**: The terminal demand was at a low level in the off - season, and the steel mills' profitability was poor. The hot metal production continued to decrease last week [3] - **Price Trend**: The iron ore fundamentals were relatively loose. There were short - term liquidity disturbances in some ore types. In the medium - to - long - term, with the gradual oversupply, there was a downward pressure on the overall trend [3] Coke - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The market still expected the second round of price cuts for coke. The coking profit was average, and the daily production increased slightly [4] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The coke inventory decreased slightly. The downstream purchased in small quantities as needed, and the inventory changed little. The traders' purchasing willingness was average. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [4] - **Price Trend**: The coke futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [4] Coking Coal - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, the spot auction transactions were average, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [6] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The terminal inventory decreased slightly, the total coking coal inventory increased slightly, and the production - end inventory increased slightly. The carbon element supply was abundant, and the downstream hot metal decreased seasonally [6] - **Price Trend**: The coking coal futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be weak and oscillating [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. Driven by the rebound of the futures market, the spot price of manganese ore increased. The Comilog quotation increased slightly compared with the previous period, and the reported volume decreased [7] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: There was a structural problem in the manganese ore port inventory, and the balance was relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursued the most cost - effective option and changed the manganese ore formula. The hot metal production decreased seasonally. The weekly production of silicon manganese decreased slightly, and the inventory increased slowly [7] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Situation**: The price oscillated. The market's expectation for coal mine supply guarantee increased, and there was an expectation of a decline in power cost and semi - coke price [8] - **Supply - Demand Factors**: The hot metal production rebounded to a high level. The export demand decreased to over 20,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal increased, and the secondary demand increased marginally. The overall demand still had some resilience. The silicon iron supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Price Trend**: The bottom - support strength needed to be observed [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber 2601 and synthetic rubber 2512 are expected to run strongly, with short - term and intraday trends being oscillatory and mid - term trends being oscillatory and weakening [1][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.68% to 15,550 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5] - **Core Logic**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee released favorable policies, and the China - US economic and trade talks sent positive signals. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents in Seoul may convey positive expectations. The better - than - expected new car production and sales data in September supported the industrial factors and boosted the confidence of long - positions in the rubber market [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price and Trend**: On Wednesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures 2512 contract showed an oscillatory and stable trend, with the futures price rising 1.41% to 10,795 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [7] - **Core Logic**: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber continues to increase. In 2025, the domestic butadiene production capacity is planned to increase by 980,000 tons, with the total capacity expected to reach 7.677 million tons/year, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%. The market has shifted from "expectation - driven" to "reality - dominated", and investors' sentiment is cautious. The meeting between the Chinese and US presidents may convey positive expectations [7]