近期，美国财政部公布的最新国际资本流动报告揭示了一个引人注目的现象：截至10月底，全球主要经济体持有的美国国债规模出现了显著的波动。 中国步伐放缓，加拿大抛售力度强劲 数据显示，中国在9月末持有价值7005亿美元的美债，然而到了10月末，这一数字骤降至6887亿美元，单月减持规模达到118亿美元。此举不仅让中国持有的 美债规模跌破了6900亿美元的关口，而且减持的力度也是近期罕见的。 | Country | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | 2025- | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 10 | 09 | 08 | 07 | 06 | 05 | | Japan | | | | 1200.0 1189.3 1180.4 1151.8 1148.0 1135.0 | | | | United Kingdom | 877.9 | 864.7 | 904.3 | 899.3 | 857.9 | 809.4 | | China, Mainland | 688.7 | 700.5 | 701.0 | 696.9 ...

王爷说财经讯：继续卖！中国持有的美债跌破7000亿美元，创17年最低！ 12月19日美国财政部最新TIC报告一出炉，金融圈直接炸了！ 报告显示，2025年10月，中国再度出手减持118亿美元美债，持仓规模直接跌到6887亿美元——这是2008年金融危机以来的17年最低纪录！ 大家先搞懂一个关键点：这已经是今年第五次减持，年初至今累计降幅超9%，而巅峰时期的2013年，我们持有美债高达1.3万亿美元，相当于现在的近两 倍。 曾经人人争抢的香饽饽，现在成了越来越多国家的"烫手山芋"，外国投资者持有美债的比例已经跌到历史最低的27.8%。 更值得关注的是，全球主要债主态度彻底分裂：日本逆势增持到1.2万亿美元创两年新高，英国也跟着加仓；但中国和加拿大却在疯狂抛售，加拿大单月就 抛了567亿美元。 为什么中国要在这个节点持续大手笔减持？曾经的"全球最安全资产"美债，真的要违约了吗？这波操作又会给我们普通人的钱包带来什么影响？ 01、美债信用崩塌！ 先把事件背景捋清楚。 美债说白了就是美国政府发的"借条"，我们买美债本质是给美国借钱，同时让外汇储备有个稳妥去处。 但现在这张"借条"越来越不省心：美国未偿国债已经突破38 ...

2025年以来，中国减持美债的力度有所加大，3月至5月分别减持了189亿美元、82亿美元、9亿美元；7月大幅减持了257亿美元；10份则减持了118亿美元， 其持仓规模再创新低。 值得注意的是，今年美债前三大海外债主中，日本、英国选择增持，中国的减持动作尤为突出。中国之所以大幅度减持美债，一是基于当时美债违约风险上 升，中国相关部门或减持超短期美债与美国国库券规避风险；二是美联储实施降息并启动短债购买，美债收益率应声下跌，中国有步骤的调仓以规避美债价 格波动风险。 中国曾经是美国最大的海外"债主"。最高峰出现在2013年11月，当时中国持有的美债规模达到1.32万亿美元。然而，近年来中国频繁减持美债，很少增加持 有量。目前，中国只持有不到6887亿美元的美债。此外，尽管美国官员试图游说中国继续购买美债，但中国并没有做出成为"接盘侠"的打算。 美国官方自20世纪80年代起大量举债。1985年，美国从净债权国变为净债务国，此后债务规模不断攀升，近年则呈现快速增长趋势。2017年9月突破20万亿 美元，2022年1月底突破30万亿美元。 邱 林 由于对美国国债信用失去信心，中国又采取了减持美债的行动。美国财政部12 ...

Core Viewpoint - China continues to reduce its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, with the latest data showing a decrease of $11.3 billion in June, bringing the total to $835.4 billion, the lowest level in nearly 14 years [1][12]. Group 1: Reasons for Reducing U.S. Treasury Holdings - The primary concern driving China's reduction of U.S. Treasury bonds is the fear of default risk associated with U.S. debt, which has reached $32.659 trillion, exceeding the U.S. GDP of $25.45 trillion in 2022 [5][12]. - The reduction is also aimed at optimizing China's foreign exchange reserves, which have historically been heavily weighted towards U.S. dollar assets, constituting about 70% of reserves [8][12]. - By selling off U.S. Treasuries and increasing holdings in gold and other currencies, China seeks to diversify its risk and mitigate potential losses from a significant depreciation of the dollar [8][12]. Group 2: Comparison with Other Countries - In contrast to China, Japan's approach to U.S. Treasury holdings has been inconsistent, with fluctuations in buying and selling influenced by political considerations and currency stabilization efforts [9]. - Japan's recent actions include increasing holdings by $39.3 billion in April, reducing by $30.4 billion in May, and then increasing again by $8.8 billion in June, reflecting a more reactive strategy compared to China's systematic reduction [9]. Group 3: Implications of Collective Selling - The likelihood of a "blow-up" in the U.S. Treasury market due to collective selling by countries like China is considered low in the short term, as the total U.S. debt is significantly larger than China's holdings [11][12]. - Even if China were to sell all its U.S. Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions would likely absorb the impact, preventing systemic risk [11]. - The U.S. economy, with a GDP of $25.45 trillion, retains the capacity to manage its debt through exports and technological advancements, further reducing the risk of a debt crisis [11][12].

Core Insights - China has significantly reduced its holdings of US Treasury bonds, dropping from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2020 to $778.1 billion by September this year, indicating a substantial decline in investment in US debt [3] - The Federal Reserve has also been reducing its balance sheet, which is now below $8 trillion, as part of its strategy to combat domestic inflation by selling off US Treasuries to manage dollar liquidity [3] Group 1: Reasons for China's Sell-off - Concerns over the sustainability of US debt, which has surpassed $33 trillion, far exceeding the projected GDP of $24.5 trillion for 2023, raising alarms about potential default risks [5] - Rising interest rates on US Treasuries, which have exceeded 5% recently, leading to annual interest payments exceeding $1 trillion, thereby straining the US government's debt repayment capacity [7] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite the sell-off by foreign central banks, US individual investors, primarily hedge funds, have increased their holdings by $1.7 trillion, accounting for 75% of the market, indicating a shift in the buyer landscape [7] - The attractiveness of US Treasuries to American investors is driven by the current yield exceeding 4%, which contrasts sharply with the near-zero rates in the past, but concerns remain about the long-term sustainability of this trend [7][8] Group 3: Implications and Risks - China's strategy to sell US Treasuries is aimed at mitigating risks associated with US debt and optimizing its asset allocation, while the ability of US domestic investors to absorb the sell-off remains uncertain [8]

Group 1 - The Senate has passed President Trump's $5 trillion debt ceiling increase proposal, but there are concerns about its approval in the House of Representatives [1] - If the U.S. government fails to meet its debt obligations, it could severely undermine investor confidence in the largest bond market globally, potentially halving U.S. Treasury prices and disrupting global financial markets [1] - Market participants believe that the U.S. has the ability to print money to cover any shortfalls, reducing concerns about the political standoff affecting the country's debt repayment capacity [1] Group 2 - As of now, the Treasury Department has sufficient buffer time before the next increase, with the "X date" estimated to be around September 2 by strategist Jay Barry and mid-September by Ian Lyngen [1] - The fiscal account balance currently stands at $304.841 billion, slightly above expectations, providing Congress with more time to negotiate [1] - In June, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond fell by 0.191 percentage points due to a general rise in bond prices, although there are still market concerns [2] - Treasury Secretary Bessent warned that the borrowing capacity for U.S. debt may peak in August, earlier than most optimistic forecasts [2] - Foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries has increased from $8.3 trillion last summer to $9.013 trillion, accounting for 31.5% of the total [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights China's ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings as a strategic response to economic and geopolitical pressures, with significant implications for U.S.-China relations and global financial markets [1][6][10] - Since 2022, China has consistently reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings, with a total reduction of $1,732 billion in 2022, $508 billion in 2023, and $573 billion projected for 2024, indicating a long-term trend of decreasing reliance on U.S. debt [1][8] - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $36 trillion as of April 2025, raising concerns about debt servicing pressures and the risk of default, which could lead to significant fluctuations in bond prices and market rates [3][4] Group 2 - The current U.S. economic landscape is characterized by slowing GDP growth, rising inflation, and increasing unemployment, prompting political pressure for interest rate cuts to stimulate investment and consumption [4][10] - The reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings by China has contributed to market volatility, leading to a sell-off in U.S. equities and heightened fears regarding interest rate changes, despite reassurances from U.S. Treasury officials [6][10] - The upcoming negotiations between the U.S. and China are expected to be challenging, as both sides seek to balance their core interests while addressing complex economic issues, which could significantly impact global economic stability [10]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" due to rising government debt and interest payments [1] - The total US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing in June alone [1] - Concerns are raised by Republican Congressman David Schweikert about the increasing government debt leading to potential pressure from the bond market, which could disrupt the financial system [3] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary has assured that US debt will never default, but the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" can only last until August, with interest costs rising by $1 billion for each day of delay [5] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is projected at $10.8 trillion in 2025, which is 37% of the projected GDP for 2024, indicating significant repayment pressure [3] - Recent bond auctions have shown weak demand, with a 7-year bond auction yielding a rate higher than the pre-issue rate, reflecting market concerns [3] Group 3 - The US-China relations are under scrutiny, with discussions between leaders emphasizing the need for cooperation and adherence to agreements, despite ongoing trade tensions [5][7] - Trump's communication with Chinese leadership is seen as a strategic move to promote diplomatic relations and address specific issues through dialogue [8]

Group 1 - The U.S. plans to unilaterally impose new tariffs on certain countries due to the inability to negotiate with 150 nations simultaneously, as stated by President Trump [1] - The U.S.-China trade conflict has reached a temporary pause, but tariffs on China remain, indicating a complex negotiation landscape ahead [1][3] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary will inform trade partners about the new tariff rates, emphasizing the importance of maintaining trade relations with the U.S. [5] Group 2 - The European Union has responded strongly to U.S. tariffs by implementing countermeasures targeting approximately €210 billion worth of U.S. goods, with a focus on politically sensitive products [5] - India has taken a significant step by filing a complaint with the WTO against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, marking a notable shift in its trade strategy [7] - The ongoing trade tensions highlight the evolving dynamics of global trade relationships, with countries like India and the EU adopting more assertive stances against U.S. policies [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing discussions regarding the safety of U.S. Treasury bonds have intensified, particularly following China's continuous reduction of its holdings and Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite structural challenges, the likelihood of a systemic default remains low, and the status of U.S. Treasuries as a core safe asset is unlikely to change in the short term [1][5]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Holdings and Global Capital Flow - China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries have decreased significantly from a peak of $1.3 trillion in 2013 to $765.4 billion as of March 2025, reflecting a cumulative reduction of over 40% over ten years [3]. - In contrast, Japan has increased its holdings by $49 billion to $1.18 trillion, while the UK has surpassed China to become the second-largest creditor with an increase of $290 billion [3]. - The adjustments in holdings indicate a structural reallocation of international capital within the U.S. dollar asset pool [3]. Group 2: Credit Rating and Fiscal Sustainability - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 serves as a warning regarding the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, with federal debt exceeding 124% of GDP and annual interest payments surpassing $1 trillion [4]. - The downgrade reflects a broader trend among major rating agencies responding to the marginal deterioration of U.S. fiscal policies, indicating effective market risk pricing mechanisms [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Liquidity - Claims regarding $6.6 trillion in U.S. Treasuries maturing in June 2025 are misleading; the actual amount is $1.45 trillion across 22 bonds, with over 80% being short-term securities, highlighting the liquidity advantages of the Treasury market [7]. - As of March 2025, overseas investors held a record $9.05 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, with seven of the top ten creditor nations increasing their holdings [8]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions and Market Stability - The actions of global central banks to increase their U.S. Treasury holdings provide strong risk backing, with the Cayman Islands increasing its holdings by $37.5 billion, indicating a trend of capital flowing into the Treasury market through offshore channels [9]. - The Federal Reserve's role as the ultimate lender of last resort, holding $4.2 trillion in Treasuries, underpins the safety of U.S. debt, especially during crises [9][11]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The U.S. Treasury market may experience a unique situation of declining credit ratings while maintaining its market position, similar to high-quality corporate bonds that can still secure financing despite rating downgrades [12]. - The fundamental status of the U.S. dollar as the primary reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as a core safe asset is unlikely to change significantly in the foreseeable future, reinforcing their foundational role in the global financial system [14].