Abstract 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 多资产大时代：什么是"固收+"基金的规模增长法则 我们正处在，且即将迎来更好的，多元资产投资的大时代。 "固收+"基金2026年依然是增量可期： 不论是居民财富寻求稳健增值的迁移需求、机构资金的收益增强需求，还是跨资产分散配置理念的市场新共识，以 及"固收+"基金过去已经为市场所认可的收益效应，展望2026年，"固收+"基金发展的大时代背景依然清晰。 "固收+"基金2026年的"规模增长法则"： 在已经过去的2025年，我们观察到部分公募机构已然凭借前瞻性布局与差异化竞争策略，成功把握住居民财富迁 徙与机构资金增配的历史性机遇，实现"固收+"基金市场份额的明显增长。那么，在即将到来的下一期"规模争夺战"中，如何才能拔得头筹？虽然所谓"成 功者"的"打法"各具特色，不过我们相信其背后或许同样也隐藏着一些共性的规律。假定市场环境不改变的情况下，依据2025年的经验进行线性外推，我 们得到如下关于"固收+"基金"规模增长法则"的答案： 对于"固收+"基金管理者，2026年着重发展"画线派"基金与"赛道型"基金均为可操作路径： 我们认为，前者相对较为符合个人投资者"存款 ...

当前，银行理财市场呈现"规模新高"与"收益承压"的鲜明反差。行业规模在2025年末触及34万亿元的历史新高，然 而在低利率成为常态的背景下，上半年产品平均年化收益率已降至2.12%，传统依赖固收投资的"舒适区"模式面临 挑战。平衡收益与波动、通过多元化资产配置寻求突围，已成为全行业的核心命题。在此背景下，农银理财党委 书记、董事长马曙光深入阐述其对行业转型的思考与实践路径。 马曙光表示，农银理财成立以来，坚持党建引领业务发展，深刻践行金融工作的政治性、人民性，促转型、强能 力、优产品、拓渠道、保安全，综合实力保持在理财行业第一梯队，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 站在"十五五"开局之年的起点，如何在低利率"新常态"的时代背景下，做稳固定收益投资基本盘的同时，稳步提升 多资产投资能力，打造高质量增长的"第二曲线"，是农银理财以及整个理财行业需思考的核心问题。 一、银行理财发展态势悄然生变 我国进入高质量发展阶段以来，发展环境面临深刻复杂变化。在"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"的政策导向 下，债券收益率较难有明显提升，银行理财发展态势也由此发生微妙变化。 从负债端看，理财客户风险偏好总体收敛，但对收益依然有要求。客户风 ...

编者按 当前，银行理财市场呈现"规模新高"与"收益承压"的鲜明反差。行业规模在2025年末触及34万亿元的历史 新高，然而在低利率成为常态的背景下，上半年产品平均年化收益率已降至2.12%，传统依赖固收投资 的"舒适区"模式面临挑战。平衡收益与波动、通过多元化资产配置寻求突围，已成为全行业的核心命题。 在此背景下，农银理财党委书记、董事长马曙光接受证券时报记者专访，深入阐述其对行业转型的思考与 实践路径。 马曙光表示，农银理财成立以来，坚持党建引领业务发展，深刻践行金融工作的政治性、人民性，促转型、强 能力、优产品、拓渠道、保安全，综合实力保持在理财行业第一梯队，实现"十四五"圆满收官。 在他看来，站在"十五五"开局之年的起点，如何在低利率"新常态"的时代背景下，做稳固定收益投资基本盘的 同时，稳步提升多资产投资能力，打造高质量增长的"第二曲线"，是农银理财以及整个理财行业需思考的核心 问题。 银行理财发展态势悄然生变 马曙光认为，我国进入高质量发展阶段以来，发展环境面临深刻复杂变化。在"促进社会综合融资成本低位运 行"的政策导向下，债券收益率较难有明显提升，银行理财发展态势也由此发生微妙变化。 从负债端看， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. government shutdown has delayed economic data releases, complicating market assessments of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, which is a major factor for market volatility in November [1] - The basic scenario from 惠理基金 suggests a slowdown in the U.S. economy but a significant chance to avoid recession next year, with potential fiscal policies from the Trump administration to support the economy ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [1] - The Chinese mainland and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to lack new catalysts in the short term, leading to a range-bound market; third-quarter corporate earnings have generally fallen short of market expectations [1] Group 2 - A recovery in A-shares is anticipated to be more differentiated, with capital concentrated in sectors like AI and technology, while interest in consumer sectors remains weak [2] - Retail investors have recently withdrawn funds from savings accounts to invest, but market momentum has weakened, suggesting a continuation of consolidation and range-bound trading until new catalysts emerge [2] - North Asian stock market earnings forecasts have improved, but valuations are considered high; Southeast Asian markets remain undervalued due to political and growth concerns [3] Group 3 - Japanese stocks may benefit from a weaker yen in the short term, but valuations are approaching historical highs, influenced by geopolitical tensions affecting tourism and net exports [4] - The U.S. Treasury yield curve is expected to remain steep, making investment strategies based on duration management more challenging due to the widening fiscal deficit [5] - Asian high-yield bond prices experienced slight adjustments, but credit spreads remain well below historical averages, indicating a need for more rigorous bond selection [6] Group 4 - Gold prices are expected to rise following silver prices, supported by central bank purchases and a weak dollar, while the correlation among risk assets has increased, making stable income sources crucial for investment returns [7]

Core Insights - SGX Group reported strong growth across its business segments in July, reflecting investor confidence in diverse asset classes [1][2][3] Securities Market Performance - In July, the total trading volume in the securities market increased by 27% year-on-year, reaching SGD 33.8 billion, marking a three-month high [1] - The average daily trading volume rose by 27% year-on-year to SGD 1.47 billion [1] - The Straits Times Index (STI) rose by 5.3% month-on-month, closing at 4,173.77 points, outperforming other major ASEAN markets [1] - Daily average trading value in Singapore stocks increased by 19% month-on-month, with improved liquidity across all sectors [1] Small and Mid-Cap Stocks - Small and mid-cap stocks saw a significant liquidity increase of 94% month-on-month, reaching SGD 261 million, contributing majorly to the trading volume growth [2] - The FTSE ST Small Cap Index and FTSE ST Mid Cap Index rose by 9.9% and 6.7% respectively [2] - Retail investors have become the fastest-growing segment, while institutional investors have net bought SGD 62 million in small and mid-cap stocks over the past six months [2] ETF Market Expansion - The launch of the 10th cross-border ETF under the Shenzhen Stock Exchange-SGX ETF mutual recognition mechanism contributed to market growth [2] - Total assets under management for ETFs increased by 36% year-on-year, reaching SGD 14.9 billion, with two ETFs tracking the STI surpassing SGD 3 billion in total size for the first time [2] Derivatives Market Performance - The total trading volume in the derivatives market increased by 25% year-on-year, reaching 29.3 million contracts [1] - Commodity trading volume surged by 76% year-on-year, hitting a historical high of 9 million contracts [3] - Iron ore average daily trading volume reached a record high of 362,755 contracts, with open interest nearing 3.5 million contracts [3] Forex Futures Demand - Forex futures trading saw increased demand due to uncertainties in US-India trade negotiations, with Indian Rupee/USD futures trading volume rising by 41% year-on-year to 2.2 million contracts [3] - The trading volume for USD/offshore RMB futures increased by 7% year-on-year to 3.1 million contracts amid heightened RMB exchange rate volatility [3]

Group 1: Market Outlook - DWS forecasts that gold will continue to rise, with a target price of $3,750 per ounce by June 2025, driven by geopolitical risks, declining confidence in the dollar, increased global liquidity, and ongoing central bank purchases [1] - The S&P 500 index is expected to reach 6,100 points by June 2025, supported by the AI boom and overall digital technology growth [2] - European stock markets have outperformed U.S. markets this year, with the Stoxx 600 index projected to reach 570 points by June 2025, contingent on when corporate earnings adjustments conclude [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - DWS predicts U.S. economic growth will slow to 1.2% in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024, due to declining corporate investment amid trade disputes and weak consumer sentiment [2] - European economic growth is forecasted at 1.1% for 2025, showing improvement compared to 0.8% in 2024 [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets and Currency Trends - DWS finds Chinese stocks more attractive than Indian stocks, noting improvements in sentiment and performance in the Chinese market, particularly in consumer and technology sectors [3] - The euro is expected to strengthen against the dollar, with a forecast of 1.18 by June 2025, as the dollar weakens due to de-globalization trends and reduced investor confidence [3]