Core Viewpoint - Ed Yardeni, a prominent bull on Wall Street, has issued a rare warning about the U.S. stock market, suggesting that excessive optimism among investors has become a contrarian indicator, with the S&P 500 potentially retreating 5% from its peak by year-end [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Investor confidence has reached its highest level in a year, with the Investors Intelligence bull-bear ratio rising to 4.27, significantly surpassing the historical over-optimism threshold of 4.00 [3]. - Retail investors are also exhibiting strong confidence, as the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey shows bullish sentiment exceeding the historical average of 37.5% in five of the past seven weeks [6]. Technical Indicators - The S&P 500 index is currently 13% above its 200-day moving average, indicating a potential overextension of the rally [1][6]. - The Nasdaq 100 index is even more extreme, sitting 17% above its long-term support level, approaching the maximum gap level seen in July 2024, which previously led to a market sell-off [1][6]. Year-End Outlook - Despite maintaining a target of 7000 for the S&P 500 by the end of 2025, Yardeni anticipates a possible 5% decline from current highs by December [7]. - The focus is shifting towards the Federal Reserve's policy path as traders speculate on interest rate cuts, with upcoming speeches from Fed officials being closely monitored [8]. - Over half of the S&P 500 companies have reported quarterly earnings, with expectations for a 13% profit growth, nearly double the pre-season estimate of 7% [8].

Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - This week, tin prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation. The 10 - month interest rate cut is certain. Trump's optimistic signals about China - US relations and China's emphasis on "anti - involution" after the Fourth Plenary Session influenced market sentiment. The supply side is under pressure due to continuous disruptions in domestic and overseas mines and maintenance of some domestic smelters, while the demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is weak, and the growth in emerging fields is uncertain. Overall, it is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Considering the macro - upward drive and the large proportion of mine - end disturbances, tin is still regarded as a long - term investment. In the short term, it is advisable to enter the market on dips [2]. Summaries by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Tin prices had a narrow - range oscillation this week. Macroeconomic factors included a confirmed October interest rate cut, Trump's optimistic signals on China - US relations, and China's emphasis on "anti - involution". Fundamentally, there were continuous disturbances at the mine end, some domestic smelters were under maintenance, TC continued to decline, and the supply - side pressure was obvious. Demand from traditional consumer electronics and home appliances was weak, and the growth in emerging fields was uncertain, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation [2]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 288,000 yuan and sell 25% of the call options SN2511C290000 when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 277,000 yuan and sell 25% of the put options SN2511P270000 when the volatility is appropriate. The latest closing price of Shanghai tin is 284,300 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 265,000 - 290,000 yuan, the current volatility is 18.59%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 45.8% [20][22]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP was 1.015036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The added value of the primary industry was 580.61 billion yuan, up 3.8%; the secondary industry was 3.6402 trillion yuan, up 4.9%; the tertiary industry was 5.92955 trillion yuan, up 5.4%. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 281,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.32%); 1 tin premium is 400 yuan/ton, unchanged; 40% tin concentrate is 269,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60% tin concentrate is 273,900 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.33%); 60A solder bar is 182,750 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.27%); 63A solder bar is 190,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan (0.26%); lead - free solder is 288,250 yuan/ton, up 1000 yuan (0.35%) [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's Q3 GDP annual rate and the US September unadjusted CPI annual rate data will be released [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Tin Futures Disk Data**: The latest price of the main Shanghai tin contract is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,550 yuan (1.26%); Shanghai tin continuous - one is 284,300 yuan/ton, up 3,120 yuan (1.11%); Shanghai tin continuous - three is 284,450 yuan/ton, up 3,100 yuan (1.1%); LME tin 3M is 35,650 US dollars/ton, up 678 US dollars (1.94%); the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.84, down 0.03 (- 0.38%). - **Tin Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin warehouse receipts total 5,567 tons, down 85 tons (- 1.5%); Shanghai tin inventory is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons (- 3.2%); LME tin registered warehouse receipts are 2,495 tons, down 10 tons (- 0.4%); LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts are 255 tons, up 25 tons (10.87%); LME tin inventory is 2,720 tons, up 145 tons (5.63%); social inventory is 9,644 tons, down 110 tons (- 1.13%) [24][25][26]. **Internal Market Analysis** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, tin prices oscillated within a narrow range, closing at 280,700 yuan per ton. Currently, profitable seats are mainly long in net positions. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: This week, the domestic term structure changed to a B - structure, affected by the expected increase in future supply [27][29]. **Internal - External Price Difference Tracking** - This week, the internal - external price difference was relatively stable, with a narrow - range oscillation [34]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Yunnan's tin ore processing fees have long been hovering at historical lows, which has put pressure on smelters' profits and suppressed their production willingness [37]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - There are data on the seasonal import volume of Chinese tin ore and concentrates and unforged non - alloy tin, but no specific profit - related analysis is provided in the part of the summary. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply side is under great pressure due to mine - end disturbances and smelters' losses [44]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - There are data on the seasonal monthly production of domestic refined tin, recycled refined tin, and the seasonal monthly apparent consumption of Chinese tin ingots, but no specific demand - side deduction analysis is provided in the part of the summary.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that after several trading days of adjustment, gold prices have continued to rise, with the Federal Reserve's news causing a pullback, but breaking the 3707 level suggests that shorting is not advisable [1] - The article emphasizes the importance of following the trend, noting that previous high points have led to continued upward movement after breaking [1] - The focus for the upcoming trading session is on resistance levels at 3744/3760, with a caution against chasing prices at the current level, as there may be short-term pullback potential [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that crude oil has experienced four consecutive days of decline, indicating a sideways consolidation phase in the daily cycle [1] - A critical support level is identified at 61.30, which serves as a key dividing line for bullish positions, with a warning to stop loss if the daily close breaks this level [1] - Prior to breaking this level, the article suggests attempting to hold positions while monitoring changes in market trends [1]

Market Analysis & Risk Assessment - In the crypto market, long positions are not invincible, especially when facing platform interventions [1] - Platforms possess various legitimate methods to potentially seize principal and profits [3] - Platform announcements can significantly influence price spreads [4] - Exploiting opportunities requires confirming platform alignment [5] - Hyper's announcement supporting short squeezes presented a prime opportunity for long positions [6] Platform Influence - Platforms can act as a natural adversary to long positions [2] - The optimal opportunity arises when platforms signal support for specific market actions [6] Trading Strategy & Ethics - Taking a naked long position at the moment Hyper announced support for short squeezes was the best opportunity [6] - Most analysts advised against shorting at that time [7]

Group 1 - The market is experiencing fluctuations with a notable drop on Monday night followed by a rise on Tuesday night, indicating a lack of fundamental data driving trading decisions [3] - The gold price is currently facing resistance around the 3390-3400 range, which is seen as a critical turning point for potential upward movement [3][5] - The market sentiment is leaning towards bullish, but there is uncertainty as the price has not decisively broken above the 3400 level, which is necessary for further upward targets [3][6] Group 2 - The legal battle involving Cook and the White House regarding U.S. monetary policy is expected to have long-term implications, with the Federal Reserve maintaining that Cook's status remains unchanged until a court ruling [5] - The upcoming PCE data is anticipated to influence interest rate decisions, with expectations leaning towards a rate cut in September [5] - Short-term trading dynamics indicate a potential for gold to experience upward waves in the coming months, particularly in October and early next year [5][6]

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced a decline, breaking below key support levels after the release of negative economic data from the US, including ADP employment data and personal spending figures [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, with a hawkish tone from Chairman Powell, contributing to the downward pressure on gold prices [1] - The monthly closing for July indicates a bearish outlook for gold, with expectations of continued downward movement unless significant positive news emerges [3] Group 2 - Short-term resistance levels for gold are identified at 3300-3305, with further resistance at 3320 and the previous high of 3330-3335 [5] - The international silver market has also shown weakness, breaking below key support levels, indicating a bearish trend [5] - Domestic gold and silver markets are following international trends, with specific resistance levels identified for both Shanghai gold and silver [7]

Group 1 - The international gold market is currently dominated by bearish forces, with bulls struggling to show effective rebound momentum [3][4] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with moving averages on the hourly chart showing a death cross and a strong bearish arrangement [3] - The key resistance level for gold is at 3321, and if a rebound is hindered at this point, it presents an ideal opportunity for short selling [3] Group 2 - A recent trade agreement between the US and EU is perceived to favor the US, failing to boost the economic outlook for the Eurozone, leading to strong opposition within the EU [2] - The dollar index remains stable at 98.67, having surged by 1% overnight [2] - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming policy meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, with expectations that both will maintain current policies [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights President Trump's first official visit to the Federal Reserve in nearly 20 years, where he pressured Chairman Powell to lower interest rates [1] - The European Central Bank has paused interest rate cuts after a series of eight consecutive reductions, while the EU has approved a €93 billion countermeasure against a goods list [1] - The sentiment in the market shows that gold bulls maintain an advantage, while the short position in WTI crude oil has slightly increased [1] Group 2 - The data indicates a mixed sentiment across various indices, with the S&P 500 showing 60% bullish and 40% bearish positions, while the Dow Jones has a significant 75% bearish sentiment [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro to Dollar pair shows a 36% bullish and 64% bearish sentiment, indicating a stronger bearish outlook [3] - The Dollar to Swiss Franc pair has a notable 91% bullish sentiment, suggesting strong confidence in the dollar against the franc [3]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in U.S. Treasury yields has led to a stabilization and rebound in gold prices, suggesting potential support levels for bullish investors [1] Group 1 - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased, impacting market dynamics [1] - Gold prices are showing signs of recovery, indicating a possible opportunity for investors [1] - The market analysis suggests that bullish investors should pay attention to specific support levels for gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Gold prices have recently surged, reaching a peak of 3275, followed by a correction, which aligns with previous expectations [1][3] - The upcoming U.S. CPI data is anticipated to influence gold prices significantly, with potential volatility expected [1][10] Group 2 - Current gold trading strategies suggest a bullish outlook if the price breaks above 3375, with targets set at 3400 and beyond [3][5] - A recent small bearish candle on the daily chart indicates a normal adjustment after a series of gains, but the overall bullish trend remains intact [5][7] - The support levels for gold are identified at 3340-3345, with critical resistance at 3375 and 3400 [5][7] Group 3 - The silver market has shown volatility, with a recent spike above 37.3 followed by a pullback, which was anticipated [8] - The focus remains on key resistance levels for silver at 39-39.2, where short positions were established [8] Group 4 - The U.S. dollar index is at a critical juncture, with potential upward movement depending on breaking through resistance levels around 101 [7][10] - Crude oil prices have been fluctuating, with recent trades indicating bullish sentiment around the 64-65 range, targeting higher levels [10][12]