五矿证券 2025 年 12 月 31 日发布的报告指出，2026 年全球经济将平稳运行，大类资产呈现 "股优于债，商品长牛" 的格局，中国经济在转型中有望实现 5% 左右的增长目标。 全球层面，主要经济体周期分化，美国经济处于下行期后期，欧盟、日本处于复苏期后期，英国进入新下行期。美联储降息周期将持续，2026 年预计降息 50bp-75bp，特朗普政府对美联储独立性的施压将使鸽派官员增加。全球已进入 "大财政时代"，美、中、欧、日等主要经济体打破财政纪律，大规模财政扩 张以应对地缘冲突和产业链安全需求，这将推升实物资产需求，使长期利率中枢难回极低水平。 中国经济面临 "宏微观温差"，核心症结是物价低迷，受金融周期偏弱、"去地产化" 导致商品需求下降及居民消费向服务业转移等结构性因素影响，2026 年 通胀温和回升但 PPI 转正难度大。消费增长内生动力偏弱，就业市场尤其是年轻人失业率上升制约居民收入提升；投资有望边际回暖，制造业投资企稳小幅 回升，基建投资在政策性金融工具支持下企稳，房地产投资降幅收窄；出口将保持韧性，产品升级和贸易伙伴多样化降低了对美依赖。政策方面，实施 "适 度宽松" 的货币政策和 " ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观研究 [Table_Main] 行稳致远——2026 年宏观和大类资产 配置展望 报告要点 全球：经济平稳，降息持续。2026 年全球经济预计将保持平稳运行。从周期 位置看，美国经济处于下行期后期，美联储降息周期将持续，预计 2026 年将 有 50bp-75bp 的降息幅度。这不仅因为经济边际转弱，还受到特朗普政府对 美联储独立性施压的影响，未来美联储内部鸽派官员或将增加。更深远的宏观 变化在于全球进入"大财政时代"。为应对地缘政治冲突和重建产业链安全的 需求，主要经济体（美、中、欧、日）均打破了财政纪律，转向大规模财政扩 张。这一趋势将长期持续，意味着宏观调控从货币主导转向财政主导，这将推 升实物资产需求，使全球长期利率中枢难以回到极低水平。 中国：转型中的阵痛与应对。中国经济仍存在"宏微观温差"，导致企业和居 民体感不佳 。造成这一现象的根本原因是物价低迷，而物价低迷不仅源于金 融周期偏弱，更源于深层的结构性因素：经济"去地产化"导致商品需求下降， 以及居民消费结构向服务业转移。预计 2026 年通胀将温和缓慢回升，PP I 转 正难度仍大。消费增长内生动力偏弱。投资整体有望边际回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fundamental changes in globalization and political dynamics that are forcing developed economies to rely more on fiscal measures for economic adjustment, leading to increased political resistance, a gradual loss of fiscal discipline, and a subservient monetary policy, which in turn raises the risk premium for global long-term bonds [2][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Framework Changes - The 2025 Jackson Hole meeting is seen as a pivotal moment, potentially marking the beginning of the end for Federal Reserve independence, as external political pressures influence monetary policy decisions [4][5]. - The shift in monetary policy framework is strategically used to provide a long-term rationale for short-term dovish turns, making policy changes appear more legitimate and less arbitrary [6][8]. - Historical lessons emphasize the importance of central bank independence, with past political pressures leading to significant economic consequences, such as the inflation crisis of the 1970s [6][8]. Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve - The Trump administration employed a multi-layered strategy to pressure the Federal Reserve into lowering interest rates, including public attacks on Chairman Powell and threats of dismissal [12][13]. - This public humiliation created a hostile political environment, challenging the legitimacy of the Fed's decision-making [14]. - The administration also sought to exploit administrative issues, such as the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, to undermine Powell's authority and create grounds for dismissal [15][18]. New Macroeconomic Paradigm - A shift towards a "big fiscal era" is occurring, where fiscal policy is becoming the primary tool for economic management, while monetary policy is relegated to a secondary role [22][23]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy is diminishing in the face of supply-side shocks, with fiscal measures increasingly driving economic outcomes [24]. - Powell's compliance with political pressures reflects a broader trend where the Fed's independence is compromised, making it more responsive to political dynamics [23][24]. Global Market Outlook - The market has largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September, but this may only be the beginning of a series of cuts, with potential for a total of 75 basis points within the year [27][29]. - The dual nature of the upcoming rate cuts serves both preventive and responsive purposes, addressing economic slowdown while also providing liquidity to the market [27][29]. - The implications of these cuts present both opportunities and risks for the stock market, as liquidity expansion may support valuations, but also highlight underlying economic weaknesses [29][32].