一份SK海力士内部分析文件意外曝光，揭示了全球存储芯片市场面临的严峻供需失衡。该文件显示，除HBM和SOCAMM外， 标准DRAM的供应紧张将持续到2028年，这一预测比瑞银此前预计的2027年一季度更为严峻。 据社交平台X用户@BullsLab上周分享的截图，SK海力士认为标准DRAM的产能增长将受到严重制约。供应商库存正被消耗至最 低水平，而生产产能相比以往上升周期预计增长有限。 这一供需格局将对全球科技产业链产生深远影响。据华尔街见闻此前文章，瑞银预测今年四季度DDR合约价将环比上涨35%， 2026年一季度将进一步上涨30%。苹果等科技巨头也将面临成本压力，其与三星、SK海力士的长期供应协议将于2026年1月到 期。 人工智能需求激增成为推动这轮"超级周期"的核心动力。SK海力士预计，AI服务器市场份额将从2025年的38%飙升至2030年的 53%，带动DRAM需求实现24%的强劲增长。 即便利用现有厂房进行技术转换也面临挑战。无论是DDR4停产转向DDR5，还是NAND制程转换为DRAM生产，都需要相当长 的调整周期。这使得短期内通过产能调配缓解供需矛盾变得困难。 与此同时，供应商库存水平正急剧下 ...

Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock markets mostly declined, with the Nikkei 225 index down 1.77% to 50,376.53 points and the South Korean KOSPI down 3.81% to 4,011.57 points [1] - European stocks opened lower, with the FTSE 100 and Italian FTSE MIB indices dropping over 1% [1] - A-shares showed initial strength but ended lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down nearly 1% below the 4,000-point mark [1][3] A-Shares Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.97% at 3,990.49 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.93% to 13,216.03 points [3] - The ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index dropped nearly 3% [1][3] - Over 3,300 stocks in the market were in the red, with the semiconductor sector experiencing significant declines [3][12] Sector Highlights - The semiconductor sector saw a sharp drop, with companies like Baidu, Xpeng Motors, and JD Group declining around 7% to over 6% [4] - The gas and oil sectors showed strong performance, with several companies hitting the daily limit up [3][8] - The pharmaceutical sector was notably active, with companies like Chengda Pharmaceutical and Kangzhi Pharmaceutical reaching the daily limit up of 20% [5][6] Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector has been supported by favorable policies since 2020, promoting a shift from generic to innovative drugs [5][7] - Analysts expect the medical health industry to gradually return to a market pricing system driven by clinical value and demand, indicating a stable growth trend for listed companies [7] Energy Sector Outlook - The gas and coal sectors are expected to benefit from rising fuel prices due to seasonal demand increases [10][11] - Analysts predict that the overall market will maintain an upward trend in the short term, with a focus on energy stocks [11] Storage Chip Sector Concerns - The storage chip sector faced significant declines, with companies like Baidu and Jiangbolong dropping over 10% [12][14] - Concerns about the global supply-demand imbalance in the storage chip market were exacerbated by poor earnings reports from major players like Kioxia [14]