摘要 2017 年至 2022 年，居民存款快速增长，2022 年达 17.8 万亿元峰值， 增速从 1.1%升至 17.4%。2023 年起增速回落，预计 2025 年降至 10%左右。房地产市场下行和资管产品收益下降是存款增长的主要驱动 因素。 金融监管收紧和资管新规落地导致部分资金回流银行存款。央行推进存 款利率市场化改革，2022 年 9 月至 2025 年 5 月，五年期定存利率累 计下调 135 个基点，短端利率下调 60 个基点，促使资金流向理财产品 等。 随着存款利率下调和资本市场收益增强，居民投资偏好多元化，青睐理 财产品、货币基金等类货币金融产品。债券、股票等风险资产在 2024 年相对收益提升，也吸引部分资金流入。 2017/2018 年是居民金融资产配置的重要拐点，现金存款配置比例上 升，2022 年占比达 85%，表明财富回流存款端。2023 年以来，金融 产品和资管产品投资比例回升至 31%，但仍低于 2014-2017 年水平， 存款类配置比例维持在 70%左右。 Q&A 近年来我国居民存款的变化趋势如何？具体有哪些阶段性的特征？ 从 2018 年开始，我国居民存款进入了一个持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is experiencing a significant shift in deposit rates, with many banks reducing rates below 2%, leading to a migration of funds from deposits to wealth management products [1][2][3] Group 1: Wealth Management Market Trends - In April, the wealth management market saw a substantial increase, with total assets reaching 31.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.39 trillion yuan from the end of the previous year and 2.2 trillion yuan from the previous month [1] - Historically, the second quarter is a crucial period for the expansion of bank wealth management, with April being a key month for growth [1] - Factors driving the growth in April include a stable bond market and a reduction in deposit rates by several small and medium-sized banks, which has attracted more funds into wealth management [1][2] Group 2: Deposit Rate Changes - Since April, many banks, including joint-stock and local small and medium-sized banks, have announced a new round of deposit rate cuts, with fixed deposit rates for both one-year and five-year terms falling below 2% [2] - The decline in deposit rates is reducing the attractiveness of deposits, prompting banks to shift marketing resources towards wealth management products [2][3] Group 3: Performance Benchmark Adjustments - The average performance benchmark for newly issued RMB fixed-income wealth management products in April was 2.97% for the upper limit and 2.27% for the lower limit, with expectations for further declines [3] - The downward adjustment of performance benchmarks is influenced by market rate expectations, regulatory changes, and the prohibition of "manual interest supplementation" [3] - Despite the pressures on product yields, the comparative advantage of wealth management over deposits remains, and the overall scale of wealth management is expected to grow throughout the year [3]

Core Viewpoint - Several small and medium-sized banks in regions such as Shanghai, Guangdong, and Shandong have announced reductions in deposit interest rates, leading to instances of "inverted" deposit rates where shorter-term rates exceed longer-term rates [1][7][10]. Group 1: Interest Rate Adjustments - Shanghai Songjiang Fuming Village Bank reduced its three-month deposit rate from 1.85% to 1.70% and its six-month rate from 1.90% to 1.75%, resulting in the six-month rate being higher than the three-month rate [3][6]. - Shandong Yinan Blue Ocean Village Bank adjusted its rates to 1.15% for three months, 1.45% for six months, 1.80% for one year, 1.90% for two years, 2.00% for three years, and 1.80% for five years, with the three-year rate exceeding the five-year rate by 20 basis points [7]. - Urumqi County Lifeng Village Bank set its two-year, three-year, and five-year rates at 2.35%, 2.25%, and 2.25% respectively, with the two-year rate exceeding the three-year and five-year rates by 10 basis points [7]. - Guangdong Qingxin Rural Commercial Bank's rates for three months, six months, one year, two years, three years, and five years are 0.80%, 1.00%, 1.10%, 1.20%, 1.53%, and 1.50% respectively, with the three-year rate exceeding the five-year rate by 3 basis points [7]. - Xinjiang Korla Fumin Village Bank reported a one-year rate of 2.00%, which is higher than the five-year rate of 1.95% [8]. Group 2: Market Trends and Implications - The traditional understanding that longer-term deposits yield higher interest rates is being challenged, as many banks are now offering higher rates for shorter-term deposits [10]. - Analysts suggest that banks are adjusting rates to optimize their deposit product structures and manage costs, with a focus on reducing long-term deposit rates to control the scale of long-term deposits and enhance liquidity [10][11]. - The phenomenon of inverted rates may persist in the short term, but analysts believe it is likely a temporary situation, with expectations that long-term rates will eventually return to more typical levels [11].