中国数万亿存款去哪了？ 业内权威称"搬家说"不严谨 作者：亓宁 央行近日披露的10月金融统计数据报告显示，当月居民存款、企业存款分别减少1.34万亿元、1.09万亿 元，非银存款则增加了1.85万亿元。 不少市场人士认为，央行数据进一步表明，股市赚钱效应正持续带动居民存款搬家。但第一财经从多位 业内权威人士处了解到，"存款搬家"其实说法并不严谨，居民、企业和非银机构用存款买卖股票，只是 存款和股票在不同主体之间的重新分配，买股票的人存款减少、股票增多，卖股票的人股票减少、存款 增多，整体上看存款是大体不变的。当然，从大类资产市值的角度看，股市上涨，会带来股票总市值上 升，相对于存款的比重会有所提高。 一位理财行业人士对第一财经表示，相比更受关注的规模数据变化，"存款搬家"的机遇更多在结构层 面，"固收+"做得好不好、如何做好成为业内越来越关注的议题。 但当下，固收类产品仍是理财市场的主流，多数机构发力"固收+"采取的是"小步慢跑"策略。第一财经 记者采访了解到，今年以来，不少理财公司的"固收+"产品都取得了不错的成绩，少数产品年化收益率 可至5%，甚至7%以上。有券商测算，今年全市场"固收+"理财规模增长预计 ...

Group 1: Real Estate Market - The real estate market has shifted, with not all properties being difficult to sell; properties in core urban areas can sell quickly, while those in third-tier cities struggle [5][6] - Since the second half of 2021, the real estate sector has been in deep adjustment, indicating that buying property is no longer a guaranteed profit strategy [6][8] - The demographic trend shows a slowdown in young population growth, leading to demand concentrating in cities with industry and population inflow, causing price declines in non-core areas [8] Group 2: Investment Products - The yield on investment products has significantly decreased, with previously common 8% returns now mostly around 2%, primarily due to liquidity issues in underlying assets like real estate and local government financing [10] - Regulatory changes have altered the investment landscape, making it essential to evaluate the underlying assets of financial products rather than just their yields [12] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Global monetary policies are shifting towards easing, with the U.S. Federal Reserve reducing rates from 5.25%-5.5% to around 4%, and further cuts expected, potentially bringing rates below 3% [14][16] - China's monetary policy is also transitioning to a moderately loose stance, with expectations of rate cuts and a focus on stabilizing economic growth around 5% [17] - Lower borrowing costs from reduced mortgage rates and corporate financing will positively impact capital markets and corporate profitability, supporting long-term stock market growth [19] Group 4: Investment Strategy Recommendations - Households are advised to reassess their asset allocation, as many have a high percentage of wealth tied up in real estate, which poses risks [21] - A suggested asset allocation strategy includes emergency funds, stable investments, and growth-oriented investments to avoid liquidity issues [23] - Success in the new investment environment relies on patience and adapting to policy changes rather than relying on outdated strategies [25]

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is increasing, with a significant shift of funds from traditional bank deposits to wealth management products and securities investments, driven by declining deposit rates and the attractiveness of financial markets [1][4][8]. Group 1: Deposit Trends - In August, new resident deposits increased by 110 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 600 billion yuan, marking two consecutive months of negative growth [1]. - Non-bank deposits saw an increase of 1.18 trillion yuan in the same month, showing a substantial year-on-year growth despite a month-on-month decline [1]. - The trend of deposit migration is expected to continue, with an estimated scale of hundreds of billions of yuan moving into wealth management products over the next year [1][8]. Group 2: Corporate Wealth Management - Over the past year, listed companies have shown a structural change in their use of idle funds, with a decrease in the proportion of deposit products and a slight increase in bank wealth management and stock products [2]. - The total amount of wealth management products subscribed or planned by listed companies reached 3.734 trillion yuan, with 56.29% of this amount allocated to deposit products [2]. - The proportion of funds allocated to wealth management products has increased significantly, from 15.16% in the previous period to 28% in the current period [2]. Group 3: Investment in Securities - Some companies have increased their investments in secondary market stock-related products, with over 10 billion yuan invested in stock products in the past year [3]. - Companies like Liou Co. and Jilin Aodong have announced plans to invest significant amounts in securities, including new stock subscriptions and other investment activities [3]. Group 4: Market Conditions - The continuous decline in deposit rates has led to a lower yield on public deposits, with rates dropping to around 1% from over 3% in 2020 [6][8]. - The average annualized yield of bank wealth management products has reached 2.12%, creating a significant yield gap compared to deposit products [7][8]. - Asset management institutions are actively entering the corporate wealth management market, responding to the demand for safer and more liquid investment options [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The trend of "deposit migration" among residents is increasing, with a notable decline in bank deposit products and a slight rise in wealth management and stock investments [1][5] Group 1: Deposit Trends - Resident deposits have decreased for two consecutive months, with an addition of 110 billion yuan in August, down 60 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Non-bank deposits increased by 1.18 trillion yuan in August, showing significant growth compared to the same period last year [1] - The proportion of deposit products among listed companies has declined, with a shift towards wealth management and stock investments [2][3] Group 2: Wealth Management and Investment Shifts - Listed companies have announced a total of 373.4 billion yuan in wealth management investments over the past year, with a notable increase in the proportion of wealth management products [2] - The amount allocated to wealth management products reached approximately 589.94 million yuan, accounting for 28% of total investment, compared to 15.16% in the previous period [3] - Some companies are extending their investment targets to the primary market, indicating a diversification in investment strategies [4] Group 3: Market Conditions and Institutional Response - The continuous decline in corporate deposit rates and the recovery of the equity market are driving companies to reduce deposit sizes and increase wealth management and stock investments [5][6] - Recent adjustments in deposit rates have seen significant reductions, with major banks lowering rates across various terms [6] - The average annualized yield for bank wealth management products is now higher than that of deposit products, prompting a shift in investment strategies among companies [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Companies are expected to continue reallocating funds from deposits to wealth management, with estimates suggesting a potential migration of several hundred billion yuan in the coming year [8] - The interest in overseas wealth management products is also growing, indicating a broader diversification in asset allocation strategies [8]

Group 1 - The core challenge for the banking sector is the downward trend in interest rates, which is expected to continue, impacting financial operations in China [2][3] - The phenomenon of "disintermediation" is emerging, where funds are flowing from banks to non-bank financial institutions and markets, indicating a positive shift in the financing structure favoring capital market development [3][4] Group 2 - Financial intermediaries, particularly banks, must undergo transformation in four key areas: 1. Transition from selling products to providing financial services, as many banks still operate in a traditional manner reliant on interest margins [5] 2. Development of asset management businesses to enhance direct financing efficiency, which is crucial for implementing central financial policies [5][6] 3. Strengthening asset trading operations through market mechanisms, leveraging advancements in technology such as digitalization and blockchain [6] 4. Promoting integrated operations to overcome the limitations of segmented business and regulatory practices [6] Group 3 - There is a significant opportunity for the capital market to develop, driven by declining interest rates and the disintermediation trend, which creates a favorable environment for asset management markets [7][8] - The focus of reform should be on converting household savings into corporate capital, as the capital market plays a central role in this transformation [7][8] Group 4 - The international economic landscape is undergoing profound changes, with a shift towards bilateral negotiations and a decline in the effectiveness of global governance mechanisms established post-World War II [9][10] - Despite external challenges, the resilience of the Chinese economy remains strong, with confidence in the ability to manage the impacts of tariffs and maintain a robust manufacturing and service sector [10][11]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the trends in household deposits in China from 2017 to 2025, highlighting the impact of macroeconomic factors and regulatory changes on wealth allocation among residents [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rapid Growth of Household Deposits**: From 2017 to 2022, household deposits grew rapidly, reaching a peak of 17.8 trillion yuan in 2022, with growth rates increasing from 1.1% to 17.4%. However, growth rates are expected to decline to around 10% by 2025 [1][2]. - **Drivers of Deposit Growth**: The primary drivers for the increase in deposits include a downturn in the real estate market and a decline in the returns on asset management products. Financial regulatory tightening has also led to a return of funds to bank deposits [1][4]. - **Shift in Investment Preferences**: As deposit rates decrease and capital market returns improve, residents are diversifying their investment preferences, favoring wealth management products and money market funds. Risk assets like bonds and stocks are expected to attract more funds due to enhanced relative returns in 2024 [1][6]. - **Regulatory Impact**: Financial regulatory policies have significantly influenced wealth allocation. The tightening of regulations and the implementation of new asset management rules have led to a reduction in the scale of various financial products, causing funds to flow back into bank deposits [5][10]. - **Asset Allocation Trends**: There has been a notable shift in asset allocation since 2017/2018, with a significant increase in cash deposits, which reached 85% by 2022. Although the investment ratio in financial products and asset management products has rebounded to 31% in 2024, it remains below the levels seen from 2014 to 2017 [7][8]. Other Important Insights - **Preference for Low-Risk Products**: Low-risk asset management products, such as bank wealth management and money market funds, are increasingly favored by residents due to their higher yields compared to deposits and better liquidity. The bond market's performance in 2023-2024 has also attracted some deposits into bond funds [9]. - **Future Monetary Policy Outlook**: The future monetary policy is expected to focus on stabilizing growth and the economy, with potential continued interest rate cuts. This is likely to enhance the comparative returns of various financial products, leading to an increased allocation of wealth into money market funds, wealth management, and bonds [10][11]. - **Emerging Trends in Wealth Migration**: Despite the overall decline in risk asset allocation since 2016, there are signs of emerging trends as the stock market improves, indicating a potential shift in risk appetite among residents [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The introduction of an ESG negative screening mechanism in the ChiNext Composite Index aims to promote high-quality development of the index [2] - The new Green Finance Directory clarifies the support direction for green trade and consumption, while a mandatory national standard for electric bicycles has been released to enhance product quality supervision [2][3] - The EU has simplified the application standards for sustainable finance classification, easing the reporting burden on small and medium-sized enterprises [3] - The ISSB has initiated the revision of the SASB sustainable development reporting standards to enhance compatibility and international applicability [3] Summary by Sections 1. Monthly Research Summary - The ChiNext Composite Index has introduced an ESG and risk dual exclusion mechanism to promote high-quality index development [2] - The latest Green Finance Directory has been released, clarifying the support direction for green trade and consumption [2] - A mandatory national standard for electric bicycles has been published to strengthen product quality supervision and accelerate battery recycling [2] - Various green electricity policies have been intensively introduced by central and local departments, covering multiple areas of development, issuance, and consumption [2] 2. Key Policy Tracking Domestic Policy Tracking - The ChiNext Composite Index has implemented a dual exclusion mechanism for ESG and risk, enhancing the quality and investability of index samples [24] - The People's Bank of China and other ministries have released a new version of the Green Finance Directory, which includes green trade and consumption projects for the first time [26] - A mandatory national standard for electric bicycles has been issued to strengthen product quality supervision and accelerate battery recycling [27] - Various departments have introduced green electricity policies, establishing a rigid constraint system for green electricity consumption [33] International Policy Tracking - The EU has simplified the application standards for sustainable finance classification, reducing the compliance burden for enterprises [3] - The ISSB has started revising the SASB sustainable development reporting standards to improve their applicability [3] 3. Market Data Tracking - In July 2025, the total issuance of ESG bonds in China reached 732.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.22% [4] - The global ESG fund market saw a net inflow of approximately 4.9 billion USD in Q2 2025, rebounding from a net outflow of 11.8 billion USD in the previous quarter [4][22] - The carbon market in China recorded a trading volume of 10.7554 million tons in July 2025, with an average transaction price of 73.24 yuan per ton [4]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a strong performance recently, with various fixed-income products experiencing growth in returns, particularly those with embedded options [2][3][11]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the bond market experienced fluctuations, with rates generally declining. Various stable products saw an increase in net value, especially option-embedded fixed income products, followed by medium- and long-term bond funds [3][9]. - As of June 18, the monthly returns for different products were as follows: option-embedded bond funds at 0.54% (previously 0.62%), medium-term bond funds at 0.31% (previously 0.13%), short-term bond funds at 0.18% (previously 0.19%), high-grade interbank certificates of deposit index funds at 0.15% (previously 0.18%), and cash management products at 0.11% (unchanged) [3][10]. Bond Market Review - The bond market showed a pattern of weakness followed by strength, influenced by market sentiment and liquidity conditions. The tightening of liquidity in late May, combined with the U.S.-China trade meeting in early June, initially suppressed bond market performance. However, after the month transitioned, the central bank's supportive stance on liquidity led to a recovery [11][12]. - The one-year AAA interbank certificate of deposit rate fell to approximately 1.65%, a slight decrease from the previous month, indicating a shift towards a more favorable liquidity environment [12][15]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the bond market is expected to maintain a low-interest, low-volatility trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.5% and 1.8%, centered around 1.7% [31][34]. - Credit bonds are anticipated to outperform interest rate bonds, with credit spreads likely to remain relatively low, minimizing the risk of significant widening [34]. Asset Management Industry Trends - The scale of wealth management products increased to 31.3 trillion yuan by the end of May, reflecting a 1.6% month-on-month growth. This growth is attributed to the decline in bank deposit rates, which has made wealth management products more attractive [36]. - On May 23, the National Financial Regulatory Administration released a draft for asset management product information disclosure, allowing for more flexible performance benchmark disclosures, which may influence investor behavior in the long term [36]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - For investors needing liquidity management, maintaining cash-like products and considering stable low-volatility wealth management or short-term bond funds is advisable [39]. - For conservative investors, holding pure bond products with a potential extension of duration is recommended, especially as the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.7%-1.8% [40]. - For more advanced conservative investors, continuing to hold fixed-income plus products is suggested, with a focus on incorporating convertible bonds and equity assets into the strategy [41].

Core Viewpoint - The joint release of the "Policies and Measures to Accelerate the Construction of a Science and Technology Financial System" aims to support high-level technological self-reliance through 15 policy measures across seven areas, including monetary credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [1] Group 1: Financial Support Mechanisms - The "345" science and technology financial service system includes a policy system, product supply system, and professional organization system, with a loan balance for high-tech enterprises reaching 17.7 trillion yuan, a 20% year-on-year increase [2] - Four pilot projects are designed to support technology enterprises in obtaining long-term and patient capital, including a financial asset investment company equity investment pilot with a signed intention amount exceeding 380 billion yuan [2][3] - The system emphasizes the roles of five types of financial institutions, with policy banks providing long-term, low-interest financing, and commercial banks focusing on technology innovation as a key support area [3] Group 2: Technology Insurance Development - Technology insurance serves as a "shock absorber" and "stabilizer" for key core technology breakthroughs and future industry development, with cumulative risk protection exceeding 1 trillion yuan since the pilot began [4] - Recent policy changes allow insurance funds to invest in unlisted equity of strategic emerging industries, with risk factors for investments in technology enterprises adjusted to enhance capital adequacy [4][5] - The financial regulatory authority is working on high-quality development policies for technology insurance to optimize the service system and enhance risk compensation and funding leverage [5] Group 3: Strengthening Financial Institutions - The "Policies and Measures" document is a comprehensive policy framework aimed at directing more financial resources towards technological innovation, enhancing the quality and efficiency of science and technology financial services [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to integrate science and technology financial services into their strategic planning and establish independent management mechanisms [6][7] - There is a focus on developing a differentiated evaluation system for technology financial services, emphasizing technology talent and research capabilities, while promoting digital transformation in service operations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The "Nansha Financial 30 Measures" aims to enhance financial support for the Nansha area, positioning it as a key node in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's high-quality development and international financial hub [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The measures are structured around seven dimensions, including improving financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, enhancing financial services in social welfare, developing specialized financial services, promoting cross-border financial cooperation, and ensuring supportive measures [2][3]. - The initiative is a strategic deployment to accelerate the construction of major cooperation platforms in the Greater Bay Area, aligning with the "Greater Bay Area Development Plan Outline" [2]. Group 2: Innovation and Entrepreneurship - A primary focus is on enhancing financial services for innovation and entrepreneurship, supporting the construction of technology innovation industrial cooperation bases [3]. - Specific measures include supporting financial institutions in innovating bill discount products and increasing financing support for eligible enterprises [3]. Group 3: Cross-Border Financial Services - The plan emphasizes the development of cross-border asset management centers and encourages the use of RMB for international shipping fees [4][5]. - It aims to facilitate cross-border payment services and credit financing, including expanding the range of banks for Hong Kong and Macao residents to open accounts [7]. Group 4: Commodity Futures and Insurance - The establishment of a commodity futures delivery center is proposed to enhance the integration of spot and futures markets, contributing to the pricing power of commodities [6]. - The measures also include the development of cross-border insurance products tailored for residents in the Nansha area [6].