每经记者｜付克友 每经编辑｜程鹏 廖丹 一场17年来最大的火灾，让香港市民彻夜难眠，也牵动全国人民的心。搜救工作正在展开，我们祈愿伤亡人数不再上升。 这场发生在大埔宏福苑的火灾，火警在短短4小时内升至五级，速度之快、伤亡之惨重，令人震惊。这场悲剧不仅是一场事故，更如同一面镜子，照见城 市更新中的安全之痛。 据悉，宏福苑这个超42年楼龄的小区正在大修。香港房屋委员会官网显示，它属于"居者有其屋"屋苑，是香港公共房屋的一种。在寸土寸金的香港，这样 的老旧小区及维修项目并不少见。它是香港住宅高容积率的一个缩影。 据报道，宏福苑有8座楼，每座31层，每层8户，全苑共1984户，实用面积在40至44.9平方米。2021年人口普查数据显示，宏福苑人口总数为4643人，其中 超过三成（36.6%）为65岁及以上的老人。这样的密度和人口结构，使得火灾发生时疏散难度陡增。 安全，至少体现在三个层面。 一是材料安全。要求建材、辅材及工具设备必须严格符合阻燃、环保等安全标准，从源头杜绝火灾等风险。 在香港这次火灾中，竹棚架与防护网成了火势迅速蔓延的主要通道。之所以还采用竹子搭建各类棚架，除了灵活轻便，一个更重要的原因是，相比钢制棚 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current global economic situation resembles a tense cold war rather than a globalization feast, with the U.S. and China engaging in a fragile balance of interdependence, particularly in the trade of chips and rare earths [2][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The U.S. plans to impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese exports by October 2025, while China tightens controls on rare earth exports, indicating a complex trade relationship [2]. - Both countries are engaged in a "chip for rare earth" dynamic, reflecting a mutual dependency that neither side is willing to fully escape [2][3]. Group 2: Global Supply Chain Dynamics - The trend of "de-risking" rather than complete decoupling has become the new normal, with China controlling approximately 70% of global rare earth resources and the U.S. dominating high-end chip design [3]. - The market currently reflects a belief that the U.S. and China will return to a stable state after short-term tensions, as both sides are reluctant to see supply chains collapse [3]. Group 3: Investment Implications - Investors must adapt to increased market volatility, as evidenced by stock price fluctuations despite strong earnings reports from major banks [4]. - The traditional investment logic of "buying the dip" is challenged by new variables such as policy risk, supply chain risk, and trust risk, which now influence valuations [4]. Group 4: Shift in Investment Focus - The focus has shifted from "efficiency first" to "safety first," with the U.S. and Europe implementing protective measures in various sectors [5]. - China's export structure is evolving, with a growing share of rare earths, solar energy, and electric vehicles directed towards non-U.S. markets, indicating a strategic pivot in supply chains [5]. Group 5: Strategic Resource Investment - Strategic resources like gold, rare earths, lithium, and chip equipment are becoming focal points for investment, as they are viewed as geopolitical currencies in a divided world [5]. - There is an increasing valuation mismatch between U.S. banks and large tech stocks, with financial sector profits soaring but stock prices stagnating, while tech stocks remain in demand despite policy pressures [5]. Group 6: Future Market Landscape - The future may see the U.S. continuing to subsidize chips while China exports rare earths, with Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN countries emerging as new supply chain bridges [6]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified and patient approach in a policy-driven market, emphasizing the importance of staying engaged in the market despite volatility [6].