格隆汇1月6日｜摩根大通私人银行全球投资策略师陈纬衡表示，美国对委内瑞拉的行动进一步凸显了在 全球分裂加剧的背景下，提升国防支出和增强韧性的必要性。美国国防预算预计将在2026财年突破1万 亿美元。欧洲则率先响应，依据新的北约指导方针，将核心国防支出提升至GDP的3.5%，并为基础设 施额外投入1.5%。这标志着从冷战后"和平红利"向安全优先的重大转变。近期地缘政治冲击加速了资本 流入国防、科技和基础设施领域，推动创新和行业盈利增长。该行依然认为，国防板块具备长期投资吸 引力，在地缘政治风险上升和全球分化的环境下，能够为投资组合带来韧性、多元化和增长潜力。 ...

智通财经APP注意到，美债有望迎来一周以来的首次上涨，此前美军逮捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗导致油价下跌，缓解了市场对通胀持续的担忧。 10年期美债收益率下跌2个基点至4.17%，而对货币政策更为敏感的2年期美债收益率下跌1个基点至3.46%。货币市场已完全消化了美联储今年将两次下调25 个基点借贷成本的预期，并认为第三次降息的可能性约为25%。 尽管地缘政治担忧的加剧通常会刺激对美债等避险资产的需求，但受科技股上涨推动，美国股指期货周一走高。美债表现也滞后于掉期合约，这信号显示出 风险偏好的回升。 德意志银行策略师亨利·艾伦及其团队表示，"从历史上看，地缘政治冲击往往不会产生持久影响，""这似乎令人惊讶，但这是因为市场通常是根据增长和通 胀等宏观变量进行交易，而非地缘政治冲击本身。" 在周五关键的就业报告发布前，交易员接下来将关注周一晚些时候公布的美国12月ISM制造业数据，以寻找有关经济健康状况的最新线索。 周一，由于市场担心全球供应过剩导致原油期货价格下跌，全球大多数债券随之上涨。即便委内瑞拉未来恢复石油产量，也仅是补足过去二十年暴跌的产 能，而今年随着欧佩克+及其他产油国持续增产，市场仍将面临巨大过剩。 ...

当地时间1月3日，美军对主权国家委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，抓走总统马杜 罗，并将其强行带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开宣称，美国将"管理"委内瑞 拉，美国大型石油企业将进入委内瑞拉，投资数以十亿计美元，"维修"石油基础设 施并创造收益。面对美方公然践踏《联合国宪章》的行径，多个国家和国际组织表 示强烈谴责。 兴业期货研报表示，委内瑞拉石油探明储量达3032亿桶，居世界首位，约占全球 储量比例的五分之一；据天然气输出国论坛数据，委内瑞拉天然气探明储量5.54万 亿立方米，居全球第八位；据不完全统计，委内瑞拉预测金矿储量约792吨，居全 球第四位；此外，委内瑞拉还有丰富的铝土矿、铁矿石。 不过，尽管委内瑞拉拥有丰富的矿产资源，但受多重因素影响，委内瑞拉矿产资源 实际产量与出口量均较小。 兴业期货表示，美国突袭并抓捕委内瑞拉总统事件，构成一次重大的地缘政治冲 击，将极大增加全球地缘政治的不确定性，贵金属避险属性将得到强化。此外，本 次事件也凸显了美国对拉美地区战略资源的强势态度，关键矿产贸易流的安全性降 低，地区溢价也将随之上升。贵金属有望深度定价本次事件导致的避险情绪与资源 品溢价，节后高开的概率较高。 对于原 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that while geopolitical events can cause short-term market fluctuations, their long-term impact tends to diminish over time, suggesting that investors should maintain a calm perspective and focus on fundamental trends rather than short-term noise [3][4][7]. Market Reaction to Geopolitical Events - The market exhibits a learning ability, showing diminishing marginal effects in response to repeated geopolitical events. Compared to the market's reaction during the U.S.-China tariff conflict in April, the current market volatility is significantly reduced [4]. - Investors have developed stable expectations regarding U.S.-China negotiations due to multiple rounds of discussions throughout the year, which has lessened panic [4]. - The market has become familiar with Trump's negotiation tactics, which include applying pressure followed by signals of potential meetings, thereby reducing fear among investors [4]. Historical Analysis of Geopolitical Events - Historical data from JPMorgan indicates that major geopolitical events from 1940 to 2022 had a temporary negative impact on the S&P 500 index, with average returns lower in the month and three months following such events. However, returns tend to normalize after six months to a year [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index also follows a similar pattern, suggesting that the noise created by geopolitical events is often smoothed out over time [9]. Long-term Market Drivers - The article highlights that short-term market fluctuations due to geopolitical shocks do not necessarily indicate a change in long-term trends. It is crucial to assess whether the core drivers of the market, such as macroeconomic fundamentals, industry evolution, and liquidity conditions, remain stable [13]. - Despite external uncertainties, the fundamental logic supporting equity asset performance has not changed. The current liquidity environment is supported by both domestic and international factors, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13]. Economic Indicators and Policy Support - Recent anti-involution measures have stabilized the PPI growth rate, which is closely linked to industrial profits. As these policies deepen, a recovery in PPI is expected to positively impact corporate earnings [17]. - Upcoming macro policy meetings are anticipated to yield supportive measures that will inject momentum into economic development [17]. - There is a positive trend in investment sentiment, as evidenced by the increase in new fund issuance, indicating growing investor confidence in the equity market [20]. Market Opportunities - Geopolitical shocks often lead to emotional overreactions in the market, creating opportunities to purchase quality assets at reasonable prices. Following the panic earlier in the year, valuable companies regained market recognition [22].

Core Insights - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) indicates that both global and local economies have shown resilience thus far [1] - However, the potential resurgence of trade conflicts, financial crises, or geopolitical shocks could exacerbate the slowdown caused by global economic deceleration [1] Economic Performance - The MAS highlights the current robust performance of the global economy, suggesting stability in economic indicators [1] - Local economic conditions are also reported to be steady, reflecting a positive outlook in Singapore's economic landscape [1] Risks and Challenges - The MAS warns that renewed trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties pose significant risks to the ongoing economic stability [1] - The potential for these factors to contribute to a more pronounced global economic slowdown is emphasized [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The civil gas price first rose and then fell due to continuous disruptions in international supply, sufficient domestic supply, and weak demand. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the basis of the 07 contract weakening and the monthly spread weakening significantly. Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated with the US attacking three Iranian nuclear facilities, which is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side, so cautious operation is recommended. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. [1] - Under the expectation of increased supply, the expected increase in chemical demand provides some support, with Shandong expected to be boosted and East and South China more likely to fluctuate. [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Daily Data - From June 19 to June 25, 2025, the prices of liquefied gas in South China, East China, and Shandong, as well as related prices such as propane CFR South China, propane CIF Japan, etc., showed different trends. For example, on June 25, the South China liquefied gas price was 4755, the East China liquefied gas price was 4667, and the Shandong liquefied gas price was 4750. The daily change in the Shandong liquefied gas price was - 60, and the daily change in the propane CIF Japan price was - 18. [1] - The 09 - month spread increased by 11 to 110. The US to Far - East arbitrage window is closed. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4667. PP prices rose slightly, FEI and CP prices recovered, PDH production profits improved, and the FEI production cost is higher than that of CP. The PG futures price declined, and the basis of the 07 contract is affected. [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Civil gas prices first rose and then fell. The current cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas at 4657. The CFR prices of propane and butane in East and South China are basically the same. The PG futures price strengthened significantly unilaterally due to geopolitical shocks, with the 07 contract basis weakening to 80 (- 141), and the monthly spread weakening significantly (07 - 08 is 10, 07 - 09 is 195). Outer - market prices continued to strengthen, and the oil - gas ratio increased. [1] - In terms of regional spreads, the internal - external spread continued to strengthen, the FEI - MB spread strengthened slightly, while the FEI - CP and MB - CP spreads weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. The AFEI propane FOB discount weakened slightly to 2.25, and the CP CIF discount dropped significantly to 12 dollars. Freight rates increased slightly. [1] - In terms of downstream profits, PDH spot profits improved due to the increase in drawing prices; the profit of producing PP with FEI decreased, while the profit of producing with CP increased; the profits of alkylation and MTBE decreased; the FEI - MOPJ spread decreased. [1] - Geopolitical tensions have significantly escalated, and it is expected to have a large impact on the sentiment side. [1] - In terms of fundamentals, port arrivals are delayed, chemical demand has slightly increased, port inventories and storage capacity ratios have decreased, factory inventories are basically flat, and external sales are basically unchanged. Chemical demand is supported, with the operating rates of PDH and MTBE increasing and that of alkylation basically unchanged. Multiple PDH factories are expected to increase their loads in the future, driving up the PDH operating rate. [1] - The number of registered warehouse receipts is 8358 lots (- 647), mainly due to a decrease of 270 in Jinneng Chemical and 377 in Shanghai Yuchi. [1]