其中，工业硅是由硅矿石和碳质还原剂在矿热炉内冶炼成的产品，上游原材料主要包括硅石、煤炭及石 油焦等，下游可用于生产有机硅、多晶硅和硅铝合金，而有机硅下游产品包括硅橡胶、硅油、硅树脂和 硅烷偶联剂，多晶硅下游则是光伏硅片。 《中国经营报》记者注意到，合盛硅业的业绩"变脸"源于市场供需变化及产品价格波动。谈及上市以来 的首次业绩预亏时，合盛硅业方面表示，2025年上半年，工业硅下游需求整体弱势，在光伏行业自律公 约影响下，多晶硅整体开工率处于低位；同时，受工业硅、多晶硅供需阶段性失衡以及期现套保等方面 影响，工业硅、多晶硅期现市场价格均持续下行。特别自二季度开始，光伏"抢装潮"逐渐退坡，终端需 求阶段性降温，价格跌幅明显扩大。 "受此影响，公司工业硅销售价格同比出现较大下滑，光伏板块受停工损失和计提存货跌价准备等综合 影响，导致报告期内经营业绩出现阶段性亏损。"合盛硅业方面表示。 中经记者 张英英 吴可仲 北京报道 硅基新材料龙头合盛硅业（603260.SH）遭遇自2017年上市以来首次亏损。 近日，合盛硅业发布2025年上半年业绩预告，预计上半年归母净利润亏损3亿至4亿元。其中第二季度单 季亏损至少达5.6亿元 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a paradox in the job market where there is a significant talent shortage across various industries, yet many recent graduates are struggling to find suitable employment opportunities [3][8][28] Group 1: Employment Market Overview - In 2023, a record 12.22 million university students are expected to graduate, marking an increase of 430,000 from the previous year [2] - Despite the influx of graduates, numerous industries are reporting substantial talent shortages, with the live streaming sector alone projected to face a shortfall of nearly 20 million by 2025 [3][4] - Cumulatively, the employment gap across various sectors exceeds 10 million positions, indicating a critical mismatch in the job market [7] Group 2: Industry-Specific Talent Shortages - The manufacturing sector is facing a talent gap of nearly 30 million, while the information and communication technology (ICT) sector has a shortfall exceeding 20 million [4][5] - Other sectors such as home care, elderly care, and artificial intelligence are also reporting significant shortages, with estimates of over 10 million in each [4][5] - The live streaming industry, despite its reported talent gap of 19.41 million, may be overestimating its actual employment capacity due to inflated metrics [9][11] Group 3: Graduate Expectations vs. Industry Reality - Graduates express a desire for stable employment with reasonable salaries, benefits, and growth opportunities, yet many positions available do not meet these expectations [16][18] - The live streaming industry, while advertising numerous job openings, often presents roles that are high-pressure and low-paying, with many workers earning less than 8,000 yuan per month [22][21] - The high turnover and instability in the live streaming sector, characterized by a significant proportion of flexible and informal positions, further complicate the employment landscape for graduates [24][25] Group 4: Structural Issues in the Job Market - The article suggests that the current job market reflects a structural mismatch where the skills of graduates do not align with the needs of employers, leading to mutual dissatisfaction [15][27] - There is a call for collaborative efforts among government, educational institutions, and industries to address these structural issues and improve job readiness among graduates [28]

研究报告 鸡蛋半年报 供需错配主导价格过山车，下半年聚焦 存栏恢复与旺季博弈 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F3073404 投资咨询资格证号：Z0020700 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：305127042@qq.com 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究员：刘维新 2025 年上半年，鸡蛋期货主力合约呈现震荡下行趋势，从年 初的 3400 元/500 千克附近，受节后消费断崖式下滑。截至 6 月 30 日收盘，鸡蛋期货主力 JD2508 合约报收 3566 元/500 千克，涨 幅 0.68%。 2025 年上半年，我国鸡蛋现货市场呈现持续走弱态势，现货 价格整体运行于成本线下方。主产区鸡蛋均价从年初的 3.23 元/ 斤一路震荡下跌，至 6 月中旬触及年内低点 2.64 元/斤，累计跌 幅达 18.3%。截至 6 月 30 日，鸡蛋主产区均价为 2.67 元/斤，较 年初下跌 40%。 【基本面分析】 2025 年上半年，鸡蛋市场深陷"高供应-弱需求"双向挤压 的行业低谷期。产能扩张推动在产蛋鸡存栏量同比激增，叠加延 淘老鸡持续产蛋，导致供应严重过剩，产区库存周 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is facing significant cyclical challenges due to oversupply, leading to declining prices and increasing inventory levels, prompting companies to reduce production rates to manage costs and inventory [4][5][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The polysilicon market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping; for instance, the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon fell to 39,200 yuan/ton, down 5% from 41,500 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2025 [4][5]. - As of early May, polysilicon factory inventory reached approximately 257,000 tons, a high level compared to previous years [4]. - The main futures contract for polysilicon hit a historical low of 34,375 yuan/ton on May 8, indicating a downward trend in market prices [4]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Companies are actively seeking to reduce inventory by lowering production rates, with many polysilicon manufacturers in Xinjiang operating at below 50% capacity [5][6]. - Despite the challenges, companies maintain a positive outlook, believing that current difficulties are temporary and that the industry will eventually recover [6][10]. - Some companies are implementing measures such as rotating staff and maintaining basic salaries to manage costs while reducing production [7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The polysilicon supply is projected to exceed demand by approximately 26,550 tons in 2025, with supply expected to be around 1,598,900 tons and demand at 1,333,400 tons [9]. - Xinjiang's electricity cost advantage, ranging from 0.22 to 0.38 yuan/kWh, is seen as a protective factor for local polysilicon companies against cost pressures [9]. - Companies believe that those who endure the current market conditions will benefit significantly when the market recovers [10]. Group 4: Role of Futures Market - The introduction of polysilicon futures has enhanced communication and collaboration between producers and traders, revitalizing the market [12][13]. - Many companies are now more open to working with traders, viewing them as a means to alleviate cash flow concerns and streamline sales processes [13]. - There is a growing interest among companies to establish themselves as delivery brands in the futures market, which could enhance their market opportunities and economic benefits [13][14].