以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 周金涛离世将近十年，中国投资界仍然没有任何一句话能够比"人生发财靠康波"更有号召力。 中国人习惯将冗长的俄式命名简化，陀思妥耶夫斯基=陀氏，柴可夫斯基=老柴，康德拉季耶夫好不容易把 资本主义经济简化成一个50-60年一循环的周期理论，我们又简化成了康波二字。 作为这一理论杰出的继承者，周金涛曾在2016年春天留下了极具"水晶球"色彩的预判：2018年将是康波周期 的至暗时刻，2019年则是新一轮周期的起点。这是1985年以后出生的人，生命中第一次发财的机会。 那年年初，他在南开大学校友会上乐观地定下一个"四年之约"："到2020年一定要再来参加一次校友会，到 时候我要看谁还在台上发言，我认为到了那个时刻还在台上发言的，至少作为一代人来讲，才是真正的成 功[2]。" 命运却没有给他赴约的机会。 2016年冬，周金涛因胰腺癌与世长辞。他没能亲眼见证2018年沪深300在中美贸易摩擦与金融去杠杆双重风 暴下，一年跌去25%的疮痍；也没能亲耳听到2019年中国核心资产绝处逢生，迎来史诗级爆发的鼎沸。 平心而论，2018年后全球市场进入了越来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article reflects on the legacy of Zhou Jintao and his contributions to the understanding of economic cycles, particularly the K-wave theory, emphasizing the cyclical nature of wealth opportunities in life and the impact of external factors on these cycles [4][9][20]. Group 1: Zhou Jintao's Predictions and Theories - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be the darkest moment of the K-wave cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, which he believed would provide significant wealth opportunities for those born after 1985 [4][20]. - His theory, known as the "Tao Movement Cycle Theory," incorporates real estate cycles into the K-wave framework, suggesting that individuals have limited opportunities to accumulate wealth throughout their lives [19][20]. - Zhou's insights into the cyclical nature of the economy were validated over time, as the real estate market experienced significant fluctuations, and gold prices surged, reflecting the changing economic landscape [7][31]. Group 2: Economic Context and Market Dynamics - The article discusses the chaotic nature of global markets post-2018, characterized by unpredictable events such as black swan occurrences and shifts in monetary policy, which challenged Zhou's predictions [5][9]. - It highlights the resilience of the Chinese real estate market, which defied Zhou's expectations of a downturn, and the subsequent rise in gold prices, which aligned with his long-term predictions [7][31]. - The impact of structural monetary policies and fiscal measures in both China and the U.S. is examined, noting how these interventions have influenced market dynamics and extended the life of the dollar system [26][28]. Group 3: The Evolution of Economic Theories - The article traces the historical development of K-wave theory, linking it to the works of Kondratiev and Schumpeter, and emphasizes the importance of innovation in driving economic cycles [17][19]. - Zhou's approach to economic cycles was unique in that he integrated real estate dynamics, reflecting the significant role of property markets in China's economic growth [19]. - The discussion includes the limitations of Zhou's predictions, particularly regarding the timing of technological revolutions and their impact on economic cycles, which were not fully anticipated [41][46].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 周金涛离世将近十年，中国投资界仍然没有任何一句话能够比"人生发财靠康波"更有号召力。 直到2025年的今天，全国二手房价格，包括一度被视为永远涨的京沪深，几乎抹去了2016年以来的涨 幅。另一边，国际金价从2016年初每盎司不到1100美元飙升到超过4200美元，并持续在历史峰值上来 回试探人心。 中国人习惯将冗长的俄式命名简化，陀思妥耶夫斯基=陀氏，柴可夫斯基=老柴，康德拉季耶夫好不容易 把资本主义经济简化成一个50-60年一循环的周期理论，我们又简化成了康波二字。 作为这一理论杰出的继承者，周金涛曾在2016年春天留下了极具"水晶球"色彩的预判： 2018年将是康 波周期的至暗时刻，2019年则是新一轮周期的起点。这是1985年以后出生的人，生命中第一次发财的 机会。 那年年初，他在南开大学校友会上乐观地定下一个"四年之约"："到2020年一定要再来参加一次校友 会，到时候我要看谁还在台上发言，我认为到了那个时刻还在台上发言的，至少作为一代人来讲，才是 真正的成功[2]。" 命运却没有给他赴约的机会。 2016年冬，周金涛因胰腺 ...

周金涛离世将近十年，中国投资界仍然没有任何一句话能够比"人生发财靠康波"更有号召力。 中国人习惯将冗长的俄式命名简化，陀思妥耶夫斯基=陀氏，柴可夫斯基=老柴，康德拉季耶夫好不容 易把资本主义经济简化成一个50-60年一循环的周期理论，我们又简化成了康波二字。 命运却没有给他赴约的机会。 2016年冬，周金涛因胰腺癌与世长辞。他没能亲眼见证2018年沪深300在中美贸易摩擦与金融去杠杆双 重风暴下，一年跌去25%的疮痍；也没能亲耳听到2019年中国核心资产绝处逢生，迎来史诗级爆发的鼎 沸。 平心而论，2018年后全球市场进入了越来越无常的混沌里。黑天鹅、灰犀牛总上头条，大象起舞、蝴蝶 乱飞是司空见惯，美联储在做鹰与做鸽之间选择先不做人，金融市场变成了动物世界，周金涛的许多预 判也并不完全准确。 他生前的遗志之一是"卖掉房子配置黄金"，断言中国地产周期早已见顶，黄金将在美元式微下出现显著 的超额收益。 但此后，全国各线城市房价在棚改货币化的大潮中涨得人们目眩神迷，黄金则在强美元的压制下横盘许 久。狂欢之下，康波理论在经历了一波短暂的"悼念周天王"后，迅速过气。 直到2025年的今天，全国二手房价格，包括一度被视为 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the enduring influence of Zhou Jintao's "Kondratiev wave" theory in the Chinese investment community, emphasizing its relevance in understanding economic cycles and investment opportunities [2][3][4] - Zhou Jintao predicted that 2018 would be a dark moment in the Kondratiev cycle, with 2019 marking the beginning of a new cycle, which was seen as a significant opportunity for those born after 1985 [2][4] - The article reflects on the volatility of global markets post-2018, highlighting the unpredictability of events such as the U.S.-China trade war and the impact of monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - Zhou Jintao's assertion to "sell houses and invest in gold" was based on his belief that the real estate cycle had peaked, yet contrary trends in housing prices and gold prices were observed in subsequent years [4][6] - By 2025, housing prices in major cities had largely erased gains made since 2016, while gold prices surged significantly, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][6] - The article notes that Zhou's predictions about the cyclical nature of real estate and commodities were not fully realized due to unexpected market resilience and external economic factors [4][6] Group 3 - Zhou Jintao's "Tao Movement Cycle Theory" integrates the Kondratiev wave with real estate, investment, and inventory cycles, suggesting that individuals experience limited wealth opportunities throughout their lives [14][20] - His framework posits that individuals have only three significant wealth opportunities in a 60-year life span, with the first opportunity for those born after 1985 occurring in 2019 [14][20] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding economic cycles as a means to navigate personal financial decisions and investment strategies [14][20] Group 4 - The article critiques Zhou Jintao's underestimation of the resilience of the Chinese real estate market and the strength of the U.S. dollar system, which prolonged certain economic trends beyond his predictions [18][20] - It highlights the unexpected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the AI revolution on commodity prices and market dynamics, which deviated from Zhou's forecasts [26][32] - The discussion points to a shift in focus from traditional commodities to new resources driven by technological advancements and changing market demands [26][32]

Core Insights - Warren Buffett's final letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders reflects on his life and investment philosophy, emphasizing the importance of kindness and learning from mistakes [1][2][3][4] - The letter serves as a reminder of the significance of long-term investment strategies and the value of understanding market dynamics, particularly in the context of the Chinese market [3][4] Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Buffett's investment journey aligns with the "Kondratiev wave" theory, showcasing his ability to adapt to different market cycles, from consumer upgrades to capitalizing on undervalued assets during downturns [2][3] - The letter highlights the importance of a supportive network and personal relationships in navigating investment challenges, underscoring that success is not solely based on financial acumen [3] Group 2: Market Context - The current Chinese economy and A-share market are experiencing robust growth, characterized by ongoing consumer upgrades, technological innovation, and the emergence of quality enterprises [3] - The evolving capital market infrastructure in China is creating fertile ground for investment, suggesting a favorable environment for long-term investment strategies [3][4] Group 3: Life Lessons - Buffett emphasizes that true greatness is defined by acts of kindness rather than wealth or power, advocating for a perspective that values humility and humanity in all individuals [4] - The final letter serves as a lesson in maintaining a calm mindset amidst market fluctuations and learning from past experiences to enhance future decision-making [4]

Core Insights - The article discusses the success of the app "测测," which combines elements of astrology, MBTI, and emotional insights, appealing primarily to urban women and generating significant revenue with a small team [3][4][6] - The founder, 任永亮, transitioned from a background in medicine and machine learning to create a product that addresses emotional needs through algorithmic analysis [4][9] - The app aims to provide users with a sense of certainty and emotional comfort, reflecting a broader trend in digital products that maximize user engagement through emotional stimulation [6][30] User Engagement and Product Features - "测测" has over 50 million registered users, with 80% being women from first-tier cities, and it generates hundreds of millions in revenue [3][4] - The app's most popular features include daily mood tracking, "测测 AI," and MBTI assessments, which help users explore their emotions and relationships [18][19] - The app's design is influenced by psychological theories, particularly those of Carl Jung, and aims to integrate various emotional and psychological tools into a cohesive user experience [12][22] Founder’s Vision and Philosophy - 任永亮's motivation for creating "测测" stemmed from personal emotional challenges, leading him to explore algorithms that could analyze human behavior and emotions [4][9] - He believes that the current internet product landscape is dominated by dopamine-maximizing models, and he aims to create a more meaningful user relationship through AI and emotional engagement [6][30] - The founder's long-term vision includes developing a "companion robot" that can interact with users in a more emotionally intelligent way, breaking away from traditional engagement models [30][31] Market Position and Future Directions - The app occupies a unique niche in the market, focusing on emotional and psychological insights, which has allowed it to grow without direct competition in its specific domain [13][26] - The company plans to leverage advancements in AI to enhance user interaction and provide more personalized experiences, moving beyond passive responses to proactive engagement [28][30] - The founder emphasizes the importance of understanding complex systems and initial conditions in human behavior, suggesting that the app's insights are rooted in a broader understanding of human psychology and emotional dynamics [22][25]