1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

Core Insights - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - Jiaxin International Resource Investment Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the listing hearing on August 11, 2025, with CICC as the sole sponsor, positioning itself to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International's Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO3 resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1] - The estimated mineral resource of the Bakuta tungsten mine is approximately 107.5 million tons, containing 227.3 thousand tons of WO3, with a credible ore reserve of 68.4 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from scarce resources and low costs, creating a competitive moat, with the Bakuta tungsten mine's resources being critical in a market where China accounts for 80% of global tungsten production [3] - The Bakuta mine's second-phase development is included in Kazakhstan's strategic mineral list, with local government support in terms of tax incentives and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Jiaxin International's unique shareholder background, including Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction, provides synergistic advantages across the entire industry chain, reducing sales risks and logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the current strong supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market, with a planned 60% of its fundraising allocated to the second phase of the Bakuta project [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications, leading to a forecasted demand of 15.11 million tons by 2028 [6] - The company is poised to capitalize on the rising tungsten prices, which are anticipated to reach historical highs due to tightening supply and increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [7] Group 5: Future Prospects - Jiaxin International's story is characterized by the race between resource endowment and commercial realization, with the potential for cash flow and valuation re-rating if commercialization proceeds smoothly [8] - The company is expected to become a significant player in the international tungsten market, leveraging its strategic resource acquisition and strong partnerships to navigate industry fluctuations [10]

Inflation Data Summary - May CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2% and consistent with the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in the previous month[1] Energy and Commodity Prices - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a 1.7% decrease in energy prices contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.2% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% from February to May[1] - Transportation fuel prices dropped by 3.7%, with a total decline of 9.2% from March to May[1] Service and Food Prices - Service prices were flat month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3%, indicating weakened support for CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller decline compared to historical averages of -1.1% and -0.9% for the same period[3] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 5.9%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 3.3% due to drought conditions in northern regions[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI remained unchanged month-on-month at -0.4%, consistent with the previous two months[5] - The rolling three-month average for PPI is -0.4%, marking a seven-month low, with an annual rate of -4.7%[5] - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of -2.5% and -0.9%, respectively, while the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.3%[5] Market Implications - The weak inflation data suggests continued pressure on industries sensitive to economic cycles, while technology sectors may perform relatively better[8] - Defensive dividend stocks are recommended for consideration, although attention should be paid to potential market disruptions from dividend-related trading in June and July[8]