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佳鑫国际:供需缺口扩大+央企赋能 三大核心优势抢占全球钨矿赛道
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-08-14 02:56
Core Insights - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - Jiaxin International Resource Investment Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the listing hearing on August 11, 2025, with CICC as the sole sponsor, positioning itself to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International's Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO3 resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1] - The estimated mineral resource of the Bakuta tungsten mine is approximately 107.5 million tons, containing 227.3 thousand tons of WO3, with a credible ore reserve of 68.4 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from scarce resources and low costs, creating a competitive moat, with the Bakuta tungsten mine's resources being critical in a market where China accounts for 80% of global tungsten production [3] - The Bakuta mine's second-phase development is included in Kazakhstan's strategic mineral list, with local government support in terms of tax incentives and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Jiaxin International's unique shareholder background, including Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction, provides synergistic advantages across the entire industry chain, reducing sales risks and logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the current strong supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market, with a planned 60% of its fundraising allocated to the second phase of the Bakuta project [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications, leading to a forecasted demand of 15.11 million tons by 2028 [6] - The company is poised to capitalize on the rising tungsten prices, which are anticipated to reach historical highs due to tightening supply and increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [7] Group 5: Future Prospects - Jiaxin International's story is characterized by the race between resource endowment and commercial realization, with the potential for cash flow and valuation re-rating if commercialization proceeds smoothly [8] - The company is expected to become a significant player in the international tungsten market, leveraging its strategic resource acquisition and strong partnerships to navigate industry fluctuations [10]
通胀仍弱,能源拖累
HUAXI Securities· 2025-06-09 14:54
Inflation Data Summary - May CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2% and consistent with the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in the previous month[1] Energy and Commodity Prices - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a 1.7% decrease in energy prices contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.2% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% from February to May[1] - Transportation fuel prices dropped by 3.7%, with a total decline of 9.2% from March to May[1] Service and Food Prices - Service prices were flat month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3%, indicating weakened support for CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller decline compared to historical averages of -1.1% and -0.9% for the same period[3] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 5.9%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 3.3% due to drought conditions in northern regions[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI remained unchanged month-on-month at -0.4%, consistent with the previous two months[5] - The rolling three-month average for PPI is -0.4%, marking a seven-month low, with an annual rate of -4.7%[5] - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of -2.5% and -0.9%, respectively, while the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.3%[5] Market Implications - The weak inflation data suggests continued pressure on industries sensitive to economic cycles, while technology sectors may perform relatively better[8] - Defensive dividend stocks are recommended for consideration, although attention should be paid to potential market disruptions from dividend-related trading in June and July[8]