存储设备公司成长性："价格周期"和"技术周期"共振 带来高斜率 20251117 摘要 全球半导体设备市场由少数头部供应商主导，薄膜沉积领域通常有三家 左右，国内未来预计有两到三家主要公司。泛林集团通过拓展 CVD、ALD 等薄膜沉积技术，全球市占率接近 20%，干法刻蚀方面接 近 40%-50%。 泛林集团收入从 2014 年的 48.6 亿美元增长至 2024 年的 162 亿美元， 年复合增长率 12.8%，利润从 7.2 亿美元增至 42.9 亿美元，年复合增 长率约 20%。预计 2024 年至 2028 年收入复合增长率仍将保持在 10%左右，毛利率计划到 2028 年达到 50%左右。 3D NAND 技术推动了对刻蚀和薄膜沉积设备的需求，范林在 NAND 领 域的收入从 2014-2015 年的 16.3 亿美元增长到 2022 年的 74.7 亿美 元。长江存储被制裁后，中微公司和拓荆公司正在填补市场缺口。 存储器未来发展趋势是 NAND 向更高层数堆叠发展，DRAM 从平面结构 向 3D 结构演进，这将增加对刻蚀与薄膜沉积等装备的需求。逻辑芯片 制程不断演进，单晶圆片资本开支密度大幅提升。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to achieve record high performance in 2025, driven by favorable conditions in the energy metals market and consistent revenue and profit trends since 2022 [1][8]. Industry Summary - The global energy metals market has experienced a typical price cycle from 2022 to 2024, with significant declines in prices for lithium and cobalt. Lithium carbonate prices fell from nearly 600,000 yuan/ton in 2022 to below 100,000 yuan/ton in 2024, while cobalt prices dropped from 550,000 yuan/ton to approximately 210,000 yuan/ton during the same period [3]. Company Summary - The company has maintained revenue above 60 billion yuan since 2022, with profits consistently around 4 billion yuan, showing no significant fluctuations [5]. - According to the latest quarterly report, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters has already exceeded 4.155 billion yuan for the entire year of 2024. Given the current rising prices of non-ferrous metals, the company's performance in 2025 is almost certain to reach new heights [8].

Oil Market Insights - Current crude oil prices around $57 per barrel are near the US production break-even cost, with the US now being a net exporter of energy, including crude oil, ethanol, and LNG, amidst declining global demand, particularly from China [1] - The oil market is experiencing a surplus, with over 1 billion barrels accumulated in the world's tanker fleet, indicating a significant excess supply [2] - The ongoing cycle in the oil market suggests a trend towards lower prices due to excess supply, with crude oil prices down approximately 20% this year while the S&P 500 is up nearly 20% [5] Commodity Trends - The disparity between gold and crude oil prices is at a historical high, with gold up 65% and crude oil down 20%, marking the largest difference in 100 years [6][7] - The soybean market is facing similar challenges as crude oil, with increased production incentivized by high prices in 2022, leading to a surplus and lower prices [8] - China has shifted its soybean imports away from the US, now sourcing primarily from Brazil, which is impacting US soybean prices, currently hovering around $10 per bushel [9][10] Production and Pricing Dynamics - The cost of soybean production in the US is estimated at around $9.75 per bushel, indicating potential pressure on US farmers as prices may continue to decline [12] - The overall trend in both oil and soybean markets points towards a "low price cure," which could lead to economic challenges for producers, particularly US farmers [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

Core Insights - The global tungsten market is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance in 2025, with domestic black tungsten concentrate prices reaching a three-year high of approximately 25,600 USD/ton, reflecting a 12% increase year-on-year [1] - Jiaxin International Resource Investment Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the listing hearing on August 11, 2025, with CICC as the sole sponsor, positioning itself to capitalize on the favorable market conditions [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Jiaxin International's Bakuta tungsten mine is recognized as the largest open-pit tungsten mine in terms of WO3 resources globally, with a planned annual mining and processing capacity of 3.3 million tons of tungsten ore starting from April 2025 [1] - The estimated mineral resource of the Bakuta tungsten mine is approximately 107.5 million tons, containing 227.3 thousand tons of WO3, with a credible ore reserve of 68.4 million tons [2][3] Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company benefits from scarce resources and low costs, creating a competitive moat, with the Bakuta tungsten mine's resources being critical in a market where China accounts for 80% of global tungsten production [3] - The Bakuta mine's second-phase development is included in Kazakhstan's strategic mineral list, with local government support in terms of tax incentives and infrastructure [3] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Jiaxin International's unique shareholder background, including Jiangxi Copper and China Railway Construction, provides synergistic advantages across the entire industry chain, reducing sales risks and logistics costs by 15%-20% [4] - The company is positioned to benefit from the current strong supply-demand dynamics in the tungsten market, with a planned 60% of its fundraising allocated to the second phase of the Bakuta project [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - The global tungsten supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected increase in tungsten consumption driven by sectors such as renewable energy and military applications, leading to a forecasted demand of 15.11 million tons by 2028 [6] - The company is poised to capitalize on the rising tungsten prices, which are anticipated to reach historical highs due to tightening supply and increasing demand from both domestic and international markets [7] Group 5: Future Prospects - Jiaxin International's story is characterized by the race between resource endowment and commercial realization, with the potential for cash flow and valuation re-rating if commercialization proceeds smoothly [8] - The company is expected to become a significant player in the international tungsten market, leveraging its strategic resource acquisition and strong partnerships to navigate industry fluctuations [10]

Inflation Data Summary - May CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.1%, better than the expected decline of 0.2% and consistent with the previous month[1] - Month-on-month CPI fell by 0.2%, compared to a rise of 0.1% in the previous month[1] - Core CPI excluding food and energy remained flat month-on-month, down from a 0.2% increase in the previous month[1] Energy and Commodity Prices - Energy prices significantly impacted CPI, with a 1.7% decrease in energy prices contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the CPI decline[1] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 5.2% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline of 18.9% from February to May[1] - Transportation fuel prices dropped by 3.7%, with a total decline of 9.2% from March to May[1] Service and Food Prices - Service prices were flat month-on-month, down from a previous increase of 0.3%, indicating weakened support for CPI[2] - Food prices decreased by 0.2%, a smaller decline compared to historical averages of -1.1% and -0.9% for the same period[3] - Fresh vegetable prices fell by 5.9%, while fresh fruit prices increased by 3.3% due to drought conditions in northern regions[3] Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - PPI remained unchanged month-on-month at -0.4%, consistent with the previous two months[5] - The rolling three-month average for PPI is -0.4%, marking a seven-month low, with an annual rate of -4.7%[5] - The mining and raw materials sectors saw PPI declines of -2.5% and -0.9%, respectively, while the manufacturing sector decreased by -0.3%[5] Market Implications - The weak inflation data suggests continued pressure on industries sensitive to economic cycles, while technology sectors may perform relatively better[8] - Defensive dividend stocks are recommended for consideration, although attention should be paid to potential market disruptions from dividend-related trading in June and July[8]