时隔7个月，国信证券分管投行的副总裁人选落定。 6月23日晚，国信证券公告称，聘任鲁伟为公司副总裁。值得注意的是，他还同时是投资银行事业部总裁。 这 是自2018年12月"投行老将"胡华勇离任副总裁后，国信证券首次提拔内部人士"执掌"投行。 鲁伟同样是一名国信证券"投行老将"，他比胡华勇晚一年（1998年）加入国信证券并从事投资银行工作。鲁伟 曾亲历国信投行的"高光时刻"，内部人士评价称其对国信投行"知根知底"。当前IPO市场、并购重组市场迎来 新一轮政策周期，这位投行"老将"能否借此契机提振国信投行业绩，成为市场持续关注的焦点。 最熟悉国信投行的人 自2024年11月20日吴国舫被带走调查，国信证券分管投行业务的副总裁职位一直空缺。记者了解到，此后投行 板块由总裁邓舸暂时分管。随着2025年6月23日国信证券董事会宣告同意鲁伟担任副总裁，该职位空缺得以填 补。 履历显示，鲁伟生于1970年，从1998年加入国信证券并从事投行工作后拥有扎实的一线项目经验，覆盖IPO、 发债、定增、并购重组，曾经主持并参与甘源食品IPO、志特新材IPO、争光实业IPO、家鸿口腔IPO、新秀新 材IPO、广发证券公司债、京威股份 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite policy tightening pressures in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market is expected to enter a more optimistic scenario in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The firm does not foresee a recession but anticipates seven interest rate cuts in 2026, which will support above-average valuations [1] - The S&P 500 index target price is set at 6,500 points for the next 12 months, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of $302 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 times [1] - Projected EPS for 2025 is $259 (7% growth), for 2026 is $283 (9% growth), and for 2027 is $321 (13% growth) [1] Industry Allocation - **Overweight Sectors**: Financials, Energy, and Utilities are rated as overweight. The financial sector is expected to see a recovery in M&A and capital market transactions by 2028, with potential for accelerated stock buybacks due to regulatory easing [3] - The energy sector is linked to oil price movements, with geopolitical tensions potentially disrupting supply and raising prices. The sector's free cash flow (FCF) margins are significantly above historical averages [3] - Utilities historically perform well in late-cycle phases due to their defensive characteristics and are expected to benefit from rising interest rates and energy capacity concerns [3] Neutral Sectors - Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Real Estate, and Industrials are maintained at neutral. The technology sector shows significant internal differentiation, with AI-related stocks performing well, while hardware faces challenges from weak consumer demand [4] Underweight Sectors - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are rated for reduction due to poor pricing power and tariff risks. The consumer products sector faces significant cost pressures, with tariffs impacting EBITDA margins by 10% to 70% [4]

欧洲央行在应对通胀方面做得相当不错。 欧洲央行行长拉加德：政策周期即将结束。 ...