1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Market Analysis** - **Macro Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, with a short - term downturn. For major global debtors, the expansion of US fiscal spending means the economic aggregate is entering an expansion cycle, but the expansion rhythm is uncertain. If fiscal spending is faster than economic downward pressure, it is "preventive"; otherwise, the risk of a short - term downward cycle increases [2]. - **Price Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and price resilience needs to be eliminated. The "inflation - deflation" relationship between the two major global economies depends on the distribution of the production and consumption systems. In the context of the China - US game, the spill - over effect of US fiscal expansion on China will weaken, promoting the establishment of China's domestic "internal - cycle" debt - consumption system. Before the new cycle starts in October, the "inflation - deflation" contradiction may intensify in the short term [2]. - **Policy Cycle**: The cycle is about to start, and there is a policy window period. From the perspective of the US dollar cycle, the liquidity expansion (liabilities) driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle requires corresponding financial market pools (assets). For the US financial sector, the leverage will be released in October, and China's fiscal policy also needs further guidance from the Fourth Plenary Session in October. In September, the Fed's policy easing may face a macro - reality of "lack of assets" or even "asset shocks" [2]. - **Strategy** - **Strategic**: The macro - strategy maintains a positive right - side judgment. Both the US and China have released clear fiscal expansion signals, driving macro - allocation to turn positive. However, the rhythm of policy release is uncertain, causing short - term disturbances. Short - term market adjustments may provide space for medium - term asset allocation [3]. - **Tactical**: In September, maintain a low - risk allocation and hold volatility - hedging positions, actively waiting for the market low point. In the short term, market pressure may continue to flatten the yield curve [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Economic Status: Supply - Driven Improvement in Prosperity - The short - term pressure has eased according to the Huatai Macro Heat Tracking. International trade activities have improved due to tariff relaxation, and short - term production activity repairs have driven the improvement of macro - prosperity. However, the internal consumption demand of major economies is still below the "water level" [7]. Price Factors: Attention to Japan's Inflation Resilience - Prices have stabilized in the short term. The inflation heat value in August was - 0.64, a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. The US inflation data in August showed certain resilience, but the Fed has downplayed the consideration of inflation in its policy framework, shifting the focus to the labor market. Globally, Japan's inflation resilience is worthy of attention, which may drive its monetary policy to remain relatively tight and put further pressure on Asian currency liquidity [13]. Policy Conditions: Short - Term Pressure May Increase - **External**: US economic policies have shifted from uncertainty to certainty. In September, there is a risk of increased market volatility during the policy transition period. The passage of the "Great Beauty Act" in July means that US fiscal expectations have shifted from contraction to expansion, with uncertainty only in the impact of the spending implementation rhythm on US Treasury supply. The Fed's relatively dovish monetary policy statement in late August and the implementation of a large - bank leverage - increasing policy in late August (effective in October) have increased the demand for US Treasuries in a context of loose Fed liquidity [19]. - **Internal**: The macro - policy has shifted to a self - centered approach, waiting for the implementation of relevant fiscal and monetary policies in October. The second - quarter monetary policy implementation report in mid - August shows that the monetary policy remains loose, with the focus on promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. However, the central bank has strengthened the policy requirement of "preventing capital idling" in the short term, which may cause short - term disturbances to the capital flow. Considering the external policy transition and the resulting increase in market uncertainty, market volatility may rise in September [19].

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Lu Wei as Vice President and President of the Investment Banking Division at Guosen Securities marks a significant internal promotion after a vacancy of seven months, with expectations for him to revitalize the investment banking performance amid a new policy cycle in the IPO and M&A markets [2][3][5]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - Lu Wei has been with Guosen Securities since 1998, bringing over 20 years of investment banking experience, including participation in various IPOs and financing projects [3][6]. - His previous roles include General Manager of the Comprehensive Management Department and the Listing Advisory Department within the Investment Banking Division, and he has served as Vice President since around 2014 [3][4]. - The position of Vice President overseeing investment banking had been vacant since the departure of Hu Huayong in December 2018, with the division temporarily managed by President Deng Ge [3][4]. Group 2: Current Challenges and Market Position - Guosen Securities has faced declining performance in investment banking, with its net income ranking dropping from 3rd place in 2000-2011 to 9th place in 2018, and it has struggled to regain its former standing [6][8][10]. - The investment banking division reported a revenue of 1.051 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 25.92%, with a profit margin of only 1.52%, the lowest among major brokerages [10]. - The company has seen a decline in its rankings for IPO underwriting, with 2022-2024 figures showing it ranked 8th and 9th in terms of underwriting amounts and numbers, respectively [12][9]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The current policy environment presents new opportunities for Guosen Securities, particularly in the areas of IPOs and M&A, as regulatory changes are expected to facilitate these processes [15][16][17]. - The company has a strong historical focus on supporting technology-driven enterprises, which may position it well to capitalize on upcoming market trends and policy shifts [17].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that despite policy tightening pressures in the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market is expected to enter a more optimistic scenario in the second half of 2025 and into 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The firm does not foresee a recession but anticipates seven interest rate cuts in 2026, which will support above-average valuations [1] - The S&P 500 index target price is set at 6,500 points for the next 12 months, corresponding to an earnings per share (EPS) of $302 and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 21.5 times [1] - Projected EPS for 2025 is $259 (7% growth), for 2026 is $283 (9% growth), and for 2027 is $321 (13% growth) [1] Industry Allocation - **Overweight Sectors**: Financials, Energy, and Utilities are rated as overweight. The financial sector is expected to see a recovery in M&A and capital market transactions by 2028, with potential for accelerated stock buybacks due to regulatory easing [3] - The energy sector is linked to oil price movements, with geopolitical tensions potentially disrupting supply and raising prices. The sector's free cash flow (FCF) margins are significantly above historical averages [3] - Utilities historically perform well in late-cycle phases due to their defensive characteristics and are expected to benefit from rising interest rates and energy capacity concerns [3] Neutral Sectors - Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services, Materials, Real Estate, and Industrials are maintained at neutral. The technology sector shows significant internal differentiation, with AI-related stocks performing well, while hardware faces challenges from weak consumer demand [4] Underweight Sectors - Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples are rated for reduction due to poor pricing power and tariff risks. The consumer products sector faces significant cost pressures, with tariffs impacting EBITDA margins by 10% to 70% [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is nearing the end of its policy cycle, indicating a significant shift in monetary policy approach as it has effectively managed inflation [1] Group 1 - The ECB has performed well in addressing inflation challenges [1]