文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 似灯足仅 叮 灯, 拥休出到4-3生 門, 付 金可以定投。这是三点几星对低估指数 基金投资的要点。 因为每一轮熊市， A股都会出现4-5星, 未来也会遇到若干轮熊市。 长期投资,不缺机会,缺钱。所以我们 要确保自己有弹药，在4-5星的时候能做 好加仓。 当市场波动的时候,低估指数基金也会 有波动。 例如当2015年下半年股灾的时候，当时 红利类指数也出现了波动。只是波动比 大盘小。 因为市场整体出现波动的时候，一些投 资者会在恐慌下抛售手里的股份,会带 动其他品种下跌。 行业主题指数,波动比大盘要更大,注 意控 制 好 比 例 ，单 个 行 业 控 制 在 15%-20%以内。 在三点几星及以上的阶段，有一些投资 方式是不太适合的。 例如梭哈一大笔资金,一次性投入。 其实市场总是不缺少低估买入的机会, 平均每3-5年就会有一次4-5星熊市。完 全可以等市场便宜一些再提高投入。 如果希望大笔资金投入，回到4-5星特别 是5点几星的时候更合适。 更不合适的是借钱投资。 大多数散户是追涨杀跌的。2026年初， 随着大盘上涨,借钱投资的投资者显著 增加，A股的融资额达到了最近 ...

中访网数据 深圳康泰生物制品股份有限公司于2026年2月6日召开第八届董事会第八次会议，审议通过 了《关于终止对外投资设立合资公司的议案》。董事会认为，由于市场环境发生剧烈变化，疫苗行业面 临较大下行压力，新增投资风险较高，因此决定终止此前签署的《经济发展合作协议》及《条款清 单》，并终止对外投资设立合资公司的相关事宜。公司董事会授权管理层与合作方确定并签署终止协 议，自终止生效日起，各方将不再承担相关义务与责任。该议案已事先获得公司第八届董事会战略委员 会审议通过。此次终止投资事项旨在应对市场变化，控制投资风险，预计不会对公司现有业务及财务状 况产生重大不利影响。 ...

思路决定出路，看待行情不同的角度，决定了你会为了一单利润铤而走险，而我会为了避开风险而放过一单的利润。其实我跟大家一样，也是一个平凡的 人，只不过专业的人做专业的事，但是想在投资领域做些不平凡的事，帮助所有投资者我没有这个能力，但是，对于每一位关注我的朋友来说，育人投资之 道是我所擅长和乐意为之之事，希望我的投资经验能够让信任我的投资朋友受益，平凡的我加上平凡的你，愿有一段不平凡的投资经历和见识。细心做人， 真诚待人，平凡做事，愿我们的投资之路畅行无阻。 黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金消息面解析：周二（北京时间2月3日）亚市早盘，现货黄金交投于4734.70美元/盎司附近，金价周一回落超4%，美联储新主席可能倾向于降息并推行更 严格的资产负债表政策打压金价，芝加哥商品交易所上调交易保证金要求，加剧了市场抛售，但因美政府再度停摆，就业数据或推迟，金价有所回升；此次 大幅回调发生在特朗普总统提名前美联储理事沃什为下任美联储主席之后，市场预期新主席可能倾向于降息并推行更严格的资产负债表政策。与此同时，美 元指数走强至逾一周高位，亦对金价构成压力。分析师指出，价格暴跌挤出了部分投机交易，有助于市场降温，但德意志银行报告 ...

不少有色金属品种在前期大幅上涨之后，近期出现明显回落，证券市场相关股票价格也随之出现较 大波动。笔者认为，投资者进行股票投资，防范风险始终是永恒主题。 大宗商品价格受宏观经济、货币政策、全球供需格局、地缘政治等多重因素影响，有色金属自然也 不例外，其价格走势本身具有显著的波动性。持续单边上涨往往更多体现的是市场短期的非理性因素， 而非长期常态。回顾资本市场历史，有色金属板块多次上演"涨时轰轰烈烈、跌时猝不及防"的行情，价 格在短期冲高后往往伴随深度回调，而盲目追高的投资者，往往成为"接盘者"。 "股市有风险，投资需谨慎"绝非套话、空话，投资者在市场中停留得越久，越能体会这句话的深刻 含义。有色金属价格的波动只是资本市场的一个缩影，无论市场行情如何变化，风险控制始终是投资的 重中之重。投资者唯有摒弃投机心态，树立理性认知，遵守操作纪律，才能在市场的潮起潮落中行稳致 远。（作者系财经评论员） 对于普通投资者而言，面对有色金属板块的剧烈行情波动以及资本市场中各类看似诱人的投资机 会，唯有建立较为完善的风险防控体系，树立常态化的风险意识，才能在市场中站稳脚跟、走得更远。 这需要投资者从认知、选股、操作等多个层面下足功 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that extreme high returns in the investment market are rare and often the result of luck rather than replicable strategies [6][7][9]. Group 1: Nature of Extreme Returns - Extreme high returns are small probability events and are often products of extreme luck rather than a reliable investment strategy [7][8]. - The majority of investors who achieve extraordinary returns are statistically similar to random chance, indicating that many so-called "investment gurus" are simply lucky [9]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The article highlights that an investor's ability and effort determine the lower limit of investment success, while luck influences the upper limit [10]. - Successful investing requires a rigorous investment system, risk management, and emotional control, rather than solely chasing high returns [11]. Group 3: Asset Allocation - Unexpected excess returns in a well-structured asset allocation should be viewed as pleasant surprises rather than goals to pursue actively [12]. - Successful investors differentiate between planned returns and unexpected gains, maintaining their overall strategy despite occasional windfalls [13]. Group 4: Mindset Towards Investing - Investors should accept the uncertainty of outcomes and focus on improving their probability of success rather than trying to control every aspect of the investment process [14]. - Recognizing that market myths are often noise helps investors maintain a rational approach and focus on opportunities that align with their understanding and investment framework [15][16].

Market Overview - The market is characterized by fluctuations, and the ability to judge the balance of market trends is crucial for success [1] - The importance of controlling greed and understanding one's own limitations is emphasized [1] Gold Market Analysis - As of December 18, gold is trading in a narrow range around $4325-$4343, with some profit-taking by bulls and a slight rebound in the US dollar index putting pressure on gold [2] - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is a key indicator that could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, with expectations of a 3.0% year-on-year increase [2] - Depending on the CPI results, gold could either break upwards or face downward pressure, making the report a significant market mover [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold remains in a strong upward trend, with a potential breakout above $4355 leading to targets around $4385 [3] - However, if the support levels are broken, a decline towards last week's low of $4260 is possible [3] - The short-term strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of resistance around $4350-$4370 and support around $4300-$4280 [3] Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are currently around $56.70 per barrel, showing a strong rebound but still within a range of oversold conditions [4] - The rebound is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions rather than fundamental supply-demand improvements, with high global inventories and supply surplus expectations persisting [4] - Without clear signals of production cuts or demand recovery, oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a low range [4] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a recent break below the $56 support level, suggesting a continued downward trajectory [5] - Short-term movements show a potential for a limited rebound, with resistance levels identified at $57.5-$58.5 and support at $55.0-$54.0 [5]

Group 1: Investment Strategies - The importance of risk control and setting stop-loss limits is emphasized, suggesting that preserving capital is more critical than making profits [1][7] - Investors are advised to set stop-loss levels within 5%-10% of their cost to manage losses effectively [7] - A comprehensive market analysis and pre-trade planning are recommended to ensure that investors can protect their profits and manage their risk exposure [8] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - As of December 9, gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $4180 per ounce, with a recent drop of 0.2% from $4190.48 [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is identified as a significant uncertainty factor affecting gold prices, alongside geopolitical tensions and dollar fluctuations [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a weak oscillating trend, with potential downward movement expected, particularly if it breaks below the support level of $4160 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The global oil market is experiencing a notable pullback, with U.S. crude oil trading around $58.80 per barrel, primarily due to Iraq's restoration of oil production at the West Qurna 2 oil field [5] - The recovery of Iraqi oil production, which accounts for about 0.5% of global supply, is a key event influencing the recent decline in oil prices [5] - Technical indicators suggest that if oil prices break below the strong support level of $56, a downward trend may ensue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment, characterized by fluctuations around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index, highlights the advantages of convertible bonds as a stable investment option, providing both growth potential and risk mitigation [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds possess dual characteristics of both bonds and stocks, allowing investors to benefit from stock price increases while also providing downside protection through fixed interest payments and principal repayment [1][2]. - In a volatile market, convertible bonds can hedge against stock price adjustments, as their prices typically do not fall below their pure bond value, thus controlling investment risk [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The investment risk associated with convertible bonds is relatively low due to their fixed income nature and the security of principal repayment, making them suitable for investors with moderate risk tolerance seeking stable returns [2]. - The growing market for convertible bonds offers a variety of options across different industries and company sizes, allowing investors to select bonds that align with their investment strategies and risk preferences [2]. - The flexible trading rules of convertible bonds enable quick buying and selling in the secondary market, providing liquidity without the constraints of T+1 trading [2]. Group 3: Caution on Investment Choices - Investors are advised to focus on reasonably valued convertible bonds and to be cautious of those with high premiums and prices, as these may not present favorable investment opportunities [3].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of not making impulsive investment decisions due to emotional fluctuations that can significantly affect risk perception [1][3] - Historical context is crucial for understanding market behavior, as past market downturns can inform current investment strategies [4][5] - The distinction between stock price and enterprise value is highlighted, indicating that investors often misjudge stocks based on price rather than underlying value [5][7] Group 2 - The necessity of having a written investment strategy is stressed, which serves as a guideline to prevent emotional decision-making [10] - The concept of using different framing techniques to assess risks and probabilities is introduced, suggesting that varying perspectives can lead to more balanced decisions [11][12] - The importance of self-awareness in understanding one's risk tolerance and the psychological factors influencing investment decisions is discussed [14][17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jiayun Technology plans to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary, Haili Insurance Brokerage, to Flash Repair Hero (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. [2] - Jiayun Technology signed a share acquisition intention agreement with Flash Repair Hero on October 20, 2025 [2]. - Haili Insurance Brokerage was established in 2012 with a registered capital of 50 million yuan and has internet sales qualifications as a national insurance brokerage company [3]. Group 2 - Haili Insurance Brokerage achieved a premium scale of over 420 million yuan in 2018 and 1.55 billion yuan in 2019 [3]. - Jiayun Technology acquired 100% equity of Haili Insurance Brokerage in July 2020 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Jiayun Technology reported revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.3%, and a net profit loss of 29.42 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in loss of 7.13% [3]. Group 3 - Jiayun Technology indicated in its semi-annual report that its insurance brokerage and other incubated businesses are relatively small in scale, and profitability is below expectations [3]. - The company is focused on improving management efficiency and monitoring industry trends to optimize business strategies [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether these businesses can become scalable profit centers, and the company plans to shut down or transfer underperforming businesses to control investment risks [3].