以下文章来源于懒汉养基 ，作者懒人养基 懒汉养基 . 懒人养基小号【懒汉养基】。主号【懒人养基】专注于基金投资，小号【懒汉养基】则记录并小范围分享自己个人成长、投资理财、旅行旅居、读书休 闲、健身养生等方面的一些思考、感悟和经历。感兴趣的朋友欢迎关注。 最近行情不错，投资者的情绪也被不断推高。某某科技股一个月涨三倍，某某基金去年收益率超过200%。微信群里，财经新闻中，社交媒体上， 这些高收益神话一次次刺激我们的神经，让我们心头涌起一阵难以抑制的躁动，无端生出了莫名的焦虑。 实际上，这些极致的高收益，与我们没有半毛钱关系。 01 极致高收益是极小概率事件，不过是极致运气的副产品 投资市场上，极端收益的故事总是最具传播力的。人们津津乐道于某人在比特币早期买入后成为亿万富翁，某基金经理精准踩点实现一年数倍回 报。但很少有人追问：这样的故事背后，有多少失败的尝试被埋没了？又有多少人试图复制这样的成功，最终血本无归？ 概率论告诉我们，在足够大的样本中，极小概率事件必然会发生。当市场上有数以亿计的投资者时，总会有人"幸运"地连续做出正确决策，获得惊 人回报。但这更像是统计学上的必然，而非可复制的投资策略。将这种极端幸运 ...

Market Overview - The market is characterized by fluctuations, and the ability to judge the balance of market trends is crucial for success [1] - The importance of controlling greed and understanding one's own limitations is emphasized [1] Gold Market Analysis - As of December 18, gold is trading in a narrow range around $4325-$4343, with some profit-taking by bulls and a slight rebound in the US dollar index putting pressure on gold [2] - The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for November is a key indicator that could influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, with expectations of a 3.0% year-on-year increase [2] - Depending on the CPI results, gold could either break upwards or face downward pressure, making the report a significant market mover [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - On the daily chart, gold remains in a strong upward trend, with a potential breakout above $4355 leading to targets around $4385 [3] - However, if the support levels are broken, a decline towards last week's low of $4260 is possible [3] - The short-term strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips while being cautious of resistance around $4350-$4370 and support around $4300-$4280 [3] Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are currently around $56.70 per barrel, showing a strong rebound but still within a range of oversold conditions [4] - The rebound is primarily driven by geopolitical tensions rather than fundamental supply-demand improvements, with high global inventories and supply surplus expectations persisting [4] - Without clear signals of production cuts or demand recovery, oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a low range [4] Technical Analysis of Oil - The daily chart indicates a bearish trend with a recent break below the $56 support level, suggesting a continued downward trajectory [5] - Short-term movements show a potential for a limited rebound, with resistance levels identified at $57.5-$58.5 and support at $55.0-$54.0 [5]

Group 1: Investment Strategies - The importance of risk control and setting stop-loss limits is emphasized, suggesting that preserving capital is more critical than making profits [1][7] - Investors are advised to set stop-loss levels within 5%-10% of their cost to manage losses effectively [7] - A comprehensive market analysis and pre-trade planning are recommended to ensure that investors can protect their profits and manage their risk exposure [8] Group 2: Gold Market Analysis - As of December 9, gold prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, trading around $4180 per ounce, with a recent drop of 0.2% from $4190.48 [2] - The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting is identified as a significant uncertainty factor affecting gold prices, alongside geopolitical tensions and dollar fluctuations [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a weak oscillating trend, with potential downward movement expected, particularly if it breaks below the support level of $4160 [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - The global oil market is experiencing a notable pullback, with U.S. crude oil trading around $58.80 per barrel, primarily due to Iraq's restoration of oil production at the West Qurna 2 oil field [5] - The recovery of Iraqi oil production, which accounts for about 0.5% of global supply, is a key event influencing the recent decline in oil prices [5] - Technical indicators suggest that if oil prices break below the strong support level of $56, a downward trend may ensue [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment, characterized by fluctuations around the 4000-point mark of the Shanghai Composite Index, highlights the advantages of convertible bonds as a stable investment option, providing both growth potential and risk mitigation [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds possess dual characteristics of both bonds and stocks, allowing investors to benefit from stock price increases while also providing downside protection through fixed interest payments and principal repayment [1][2]. - In a volatile market, convertible bonds can hedge against stock price adjustments, as their prices typically do not fall below their pure bond value, thus controlling investment risk [1][2]. Group 2: Investment Strategy and Market Dynamics - The investment risk associated with convertible bonds is relatively low due to their fixed income nature and the security of principal repayment, making them suitable for investors with moderate risk tolerance seeking stable returns [2]. - The growing market for convertible bonds offers a variety of options across different industries and company sizes, allowing investors to select bonds that align with their investment strategies and risk preferences [2]. - The flexible trading rules of convertible bonds enable quick buying and selling in the secondary market, providing liquidity without the constraints of T+1 trading [2]. Group 3: Caution on Investment Choices - Investors are advised to focus on reasonably valued convertible bonds and to be cautious of those with high premiums and prices, as these may not present favorable investment opportunities [3].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of not making impulsive investment decisions due to emotional fluctuations that can significantly affect risk perception [1][3] - Historical context is crucial for understanding market behavior, as past market downturns can inform current investment strategies [4][5] - The distinction between stock price and enterprise value is highlighted, indicating that investors often misjudge stocks based on price rather than underlying value [5][7] Group 2 - The necessity of having a written investment strategy is stressed, which serves as a guideline to prevent emotional decision-making [10] - The concept of using different framing techniques to assess risks and probabilities is introduced, suggesting that varying perspectives can lead to more balanced decisions [11][12] - The importance of self-awareness in understanding one's risk tolerance and the psychological factors influencing investment decisions is discussed [14][17]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jiayun Technology plans to sell its wholly-owned subsidiary, Haili Insurance Brokerage, to Flash Repair Hero (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. [2] - Jiayun Technology signed a share acquisition intention agreement with Flash Repair Hero on October 20, 2025 [2]. - Haili Insurance Brokerage was established in 2012 with a registered capital of 50 million yuan and has internet sales qualifications as a national insurance brokerage company [3]. Group 2 - Haili Insurance Brokerage achieved a premium scale of over 420 million yuan in 2018 and 1.55 billion yuan in 2019 [3]. - Jiayun Technology acquired 100% equity of Haili Insurance Brokerage in July 2020 [3]. - In the first half of 2025, Jiayun Technology reported revenue of 1.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 109.3%, and a net profit loss of 29.42 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction in loss of 7.13% [3]. Group 3 - Jiayun Technology indicated in its semi-annual report that its insurance brokerage and other incubated businesses are relatively small in scale, and profitability is below expectations [3]. - The company is focused on improving management efficiency and monitoring industry trends to optimize business strategies [3]. - There is uncertainty regarding whether these businesses can become scalable profit centers, and the company plans to shut down or transfer underperforming businesses to control investment risks [3].

Core Insights - The essence of investment lies in managing risks, with excess returns being a reward for correctly assuming risks [1][2] Group 1: Market Awareness - Investors must maintain humility and respect for the market's unpredictability, which involves abandoning the fantasy of precise predictions and shifting to a responsive approach [1] - The bond market faces significant risks, particularly credit and interest rate risks, necessitating the use of safety margins and strict exit conditions to enhance risk control [2] Group 2: Discipline in Investment - Discipline is crucial in the battle against greed and fear, serving as a protective mechanism to avoid catastrophic losses and gradually realize compound returns [1][3] - Investment strategies should focus on maintaining a stable risk-return profile through active duration management and early detection of credit risks [3] Group 3: Patience and Adaptability - Patience is essential in navigating market volatility, as investors must be prepared to adapt to changing rules while maintaining a long-term investment style [2][4] - The long-term stability of investment styles will be rewarded by the market, as evidenced by the performance of long-duration bond index funds after enduring periods of low interest [2][4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The spot gold price reached $3372.67 per ounce on August 25, 2025, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, while December gold futures closed at $3417.50 per ounce, reflecting market stability amid policy expectations and a strengthening dollar [1] - On September 4, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures price was reported at 821.68 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.40%, and physical gold prices from brands like Chow Tai Fook surpassed 1050 yuan per gram, showing a cumulative increase of over 4% since early August [1] Group 2: Key Drivers of Gold Price Fluctuations - The volatility in the gold market in 2025 is primarily driven by three factors: the Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points, geopolitical risks, and sustained high demand for gold from global central banks [3] - The probability of a rate cut is estimated at 86%, which lowers the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, acting as a "booster" for gold prices [3] - Continued geopolitical tensions, including concerns over the independence of the central bank and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to increased safe-haven investments in gold [3] Group 3: Investment Strategies for Newcomers - New investors in the gold market are advised to build a solid knowledge base, including understanding how Federal Reserve rate cuts can influence gold prices, as seen in the price surge from $3360 to $3420 following the August rate cut expectations [4] - It is crucial for new investors to establish a trading plan, recommending that no more than 20% of total investment capital be allocated to a single trade, with stop-loss points set between 5% and 10% [4] Group 4: Risk Management Techniques - Effective risk management for gold investment includes utilizing technical indicators, such as monitoring the RSI indicator for overbought conditions, which can signal potential price corrections [5] Group 5: Selecting a Reliable Trading Platform - When choosing a gold trading platform, investors should focus on compliance, transparency, and risk management capabilities, with a recommendation to look for platforms that are members of reputable exchanges [6] - Gold Sheng Precious Metals, as a member of the Hong Kong Gold Exchange, meets these standards and offers zero commission policies and lower spreads compared to industry averages, enhancing its appeal to cost-sensitive investors [6] Group 6: Fraud Prevention Tips for New Investors - New investors should verify the credentials of trading platforms, ensuring they are certified members of recognized institutions to avoid unregulated "black market" platforms [7] - It is important to be cautious of platforms promising excessively high returns, as even in a bullish market, the maximum weekly increase in gold prices was around 4% [7] - Ensuring the safety of funds is critical, with reputable platforms separating client funds from operational funds and providing efficient withdrawal processes [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of health and living in the moment, suggesting that while investment aims to maintain or increase purchasing power, it is crucial to enjoy life and not overly sacrifice present enjoyment for future gains [1] - Investment should be approached with a mindset that balances financial goals with personal well-being, indicating that excessive frugality can lead to missed opportunities for enjoyment [1] - The article highlights that financial freedom allows individuals to make choices that enhance their quality of life, suggesting that the ultimate goal of earning money is to gain the freedom to live life on one's own terms [3] Group 2 - It is advised that ordinary investors should focus on long-term, positively yielding investment products to increase the likelihood of profitability, as market fluctuations can significantly impact those with lower risk tolerance [8] - The discussion includes the notion that investment should be seen as a hobby that provides learning opportunities and enjoyment, rather than solely a means to make money [11] - The article also mentions that the purpose of investing can vary greatly among individuals, with some seeking to validate their intelligence through investment success, while others may have different motivations at different life stages [12]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The gold market experienced significant volatility, with prices testing the $3400 level multiple times, ultimately reaching a high of $3409, the highest since July 24 [2][3] - Analysts remain bullish on gold prices despite recent fluctuations, focusing on upcoming events such as the meeting between Trump and Putin, and speeches from Federal Reserve officials [2] - The support level at $3380 is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment, while resistance is noted at $3410, with potential for a breakout if conditions are favorable [5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - The oil market has shown a notable downward trend, with Brent crude oil prices falling to $66.40 per barrel and WTI prices at $63.82, indicating a weekly decline of over 4% and 5% respectively [6] - Concerns over the impact of new U.S. tariffs on the global economy and shifting OPEC+ policies are contributing to the bearish sentiment in the oil market [6] - Technical indicators suggest a continued downtrend for oil prices, with MACD showing increasing bearish momentum and a recommendation for short positions on rebounds [7]