上海财经大学校长刘元春对21世纪经济报道记者表示，扩消费需要一个过程，因为背后蕴含着大量基础 制度改革，涉及大量利益调整。中国的高投资跟高储蓄率密切相关，背后对应的是国民收入分配体系， 要通过提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重、提高国企或上市公司分红比例、财政开支更多转向民生 领域等逐步实现。 21世纪经济报道记者周潇枭 北京报道 随着我国经济规模的不断壮大，大国经济以内需为主的特征明 显，最终消费对经济增长的基础作用愈发凸显。 《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（下文简称《建议》）明确了"十 五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，其中一项就是"居民消费率明显提高"。 《建议》围绕大力提振消费进行了更具体的部署，包括：统筹促就业、增收入、稳预期，合理提高公共 服务支出占财政支出比重，增强居民消费能力，以放宽准入、业态融合为重点扩大服务消费，拓展入境 消费，加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出，完善促进消费制度机制，清 理汽车、住房等消费不合理限制性措施，落实带薪错峰休假等。 考虑到"十五五"时期我国外需依然面临较多不确定因素，要推动经济平稳增长，必须更充分地激发国内 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the food and beverage sector is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that increasing the resident consumption rate is a key goal in the "14th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on enhancing domestic demand, which is expected to lead to a recovery in the food and beverage sector [1][2]. - The report emphasizes that the food and beverage industry is a typical cyclical sector, closely linked to the external economic environment. With coordinated fiscal and monetary policies, the current consumption weakness is anticipated to improve, allowing related sub-industries to emerge from the cyclical trough [1][2]. - The report identifies that the consumer demand structure is changing in a deflationary economic environment, impacting production profitability and leading to significant differentiation within the industry [1][2]. Summary by Sections Economic Context - The report notes that the contribution of final consumption expenditure and net exports to GDP growth has been higher than that of gross capital formation in recent years. China's consumption rate remains relatively low compared to developed countries, indicating significant potential for growth [1]. - The report discusses the importance of population structure and family dynamics in shaping consumption demand, highlighting the government's initiatives to promote high-quality population development and improve birth rates through various policies [1]. Consumer Behavior - Key factors influencing consumer behavior include consumption capacity and willingness, which are affected by residents' disposable income and future income expectations. The report suggests that ongoing government policies aimed at increasing residents' income will likely improve consumer sentiment and spending [1][2]. Industry Dynamics - The food and beverage sector is characterized by significant sub-sector differentiation, with some areas like snacks and soft drinks benefiting from channel and category changes. Leading companies are expected to show strong performance even in a weak demand environment [1][2]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Anjijia Food, Yanjing Beer, and New Dairy, while also considering leading liquor companies like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which are currently at the bottom of the industry cycle [1].