证 券 研 究 报 告 【华创策略】AI视角下的政府工作报告投资要点 证监会审核华创证券投资咨询业务资格批文号：证监许可（2009）1210 号 2 • 本次政府工作报告延续此前"双宽"的货币、财政政策总基调，为股市持续走牛营造了宽松良好的宏观政策环境。 其中2026年经济增长目标设定为4.5％—5％更加务实；财政政策"更加积极"并提升赤字规模：赤字率４％， 赤字规模5.9万亿元、比上年增加2300亿元；货币政策"适度宽松"为降准降息提供空间以形成流动性宽松。 • 对26年上市公司业绩给予更大期待。在经济社会发展总体要求章节中，明确提出"推动价格总水平由负转正、消 费价格合理温和回升"；货币政策中同样提到"把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量"。 经测算4%的赤字率和5.9万亿的财政赤字对应隐含名义GDP增速约5%，则隐含GDP平减指数有望转正回升至0- 0.5%。通胀回归有望带动上市公司业绩上行从而消化当前静态相对较高的估值，推动股市的主线逻辑由上半场流 动性驱动的金融再通胀转向下半场EPS驱动的实物再通胀。 • 关注顺周期+科创。①顺周期："十五五"时期重大工程项目建设与财政政策明确持续 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust growth and significant contribution of the service industry to the GDP of Guangxi, with a projected value exceeding 1.55 trillion yuan by 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a contribution rate of 54.7% to GDP, an increase of 13.8 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The number of new enterprises in the retail, accommodation, and catering sectors is expected to reach 1,985, while 551 new large-scale service enterprises will be established by 2025, indicating a strong expansion in the service sector [1] - Profits for large-scale service enterprises in Guangxi increased by 28.2% year-on-year from January to November 2025, surpassing the national average growth of 22.6% [1] Group 2 - The production service sector is showing strong support, with revenues from large-scale other profit-making service industries growing by 16.9% year-on-year, placing Guangxi among the top in the nation [2] - The financial sector has seen significant activity, with over 165 billion yuan in fiscal interest loans provided, reducing financing costs by 1.7 billion yuan, and banks reporting net income of 119.7 billion yuan [2] - The postal and express delivery industry is experiencing rapid growth, with total postal business volume increasing by 23.5% year-on-year, and express delivery volume rising by 23.68%, indicating an optimized inbound and outbound structure [2] Group 3 - Guangxi is implementing a special action to boost consumption, aiming to secure 7.7 billion yuan in national funds for replacing old consumer goods, which is expected to directly stimulate sales exceeding 52.9 billion yuan [3] - The tourism sector is being actively promoted, with initiatives such as the "one ticket for three days" policy and hosting numerous large-scale events, leading to a 12.9% increase in tourist numbers and an 11% rise in tourism revenue [3] - The local government is focused on developing the smart economy and modern industrial systems, with plans to strengthen monitoring and analysis of service industry performance to ensure sustained growth and quality improvement [3]

Group 1 - Chengdu has achieved a remarkable consumer performance, with a retail sales growth of 5.5% in 2025, ranking first among sub-provincial cities [1] - Chengdu became a trillion-level consumer city in 2023, and its continued growth is notable amid a complex external environment and insufficient domestic demand [1] - Core cities in central and western China, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, and Chongqing, are experiencing stable consumption growth, outpacing eastern coastal cities, indicating a shift in consumption focus towards the west [1] Group 2 - Chengdu's proactive measures, including the implementation of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan," have contributed to its consumer growth by addressing both supply and demand [3] - The city has introduced various policies, such as subsidies for replacing old consumer goods, and has been recognized as a national pilot city for retail innovation and sports consumption [3] - Chengdu's efforts in enhancing consumer confidence are reflected in the creation of 311,000 new urban jobs and a 7% increase in industrial added value, improving the overall business environment [3] Group 3 - Consumer confidence is fundamentally linked to economic growth, industry upgrades, and urban safety, which collectively foster a positive outlook for future consumption [4] - The relationship between consumer spending and business revenue highlights the cyclical nature of the economy, where increased consumer activity boosts corporate confidence and investment [4] - Sustaining consumer confidence is essential for maintaining economic vitality and ensuring individuals can invest in a better quality of life [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is set to implement various measures in 2026 to boost consumption, support foreign trade innovation, and expand bilateral investment opportunities. Group 1: Foreign Trade Innovation - The establishment of a negative list management system for cross-border service trade and the construction of a national service trade innovation development demonstration zone will be prioritized [1][6] - A national digital trade demonstration zone will be initiated, along with the formulation of relevant standards for digital trade to promote the digital transformation of service outsourcing [1][6] Group 2: Consumption Promotion - The optimization of the old-for-new consumption policy will be implemented to stimulate the consumption of durable goods such as automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [2][5] - Pilot reforms in automotive circulation consumption will be conducted to further unleash the potential of automobile consumption [2][5] - The service consumption quality improvement initiative will continue, focusing on enhancing the supply levels in cultural entertainment, tourism, and healthcare sectors [2][5] Group 3: Investment Expansion - The government plans to gradually open up sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education to foreign investment [7] - A national-level overseas comprehensive service platform will be established to support foreign investors and facilitate their participation in various economic activities [8] Group 4: International Trade Cooperation - The government aims to sign free trade agreements with more willing countries and establish trade facilitation working groups to enhance international economic cooperation [6][7] - The focus will be on expanding self-trade cooperation with countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council, Switzerland, South Korea, and others [7]

Market Overview - On January 26, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index fell by 1.45%[1] - The average market capitalization of the North Exchange component stocks is 3.274 billion, with a trading volume of 32.814 billion, a decrease of 0.321 billion from the previous trading day[13] Capital Market News - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported that the Chinese corporate credit index for Q4 2025 was 162.18, reflecting a slight increase of 0.52 points from Q3 2025, indicating a stable and improving credit environment[6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 150.5 billion reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 207.8 billion from the open market[8] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced plans to optimize the implementation of the old-for-new policy for consumer goods, aiming to boost consumption of durable goods such as home appliances and automobiles in 2026[9] - Tianjin aims to establish a national brain-computer interface technology innovation center, focusing on key technological breakthroughs and enhancing local innovation capabilities[11] Company Announcements - Dayu Biological expects a net loss of 26 to 30 million for 2025, a decline of 25.3% to 8.59% compared to the previous year due to industry challenges[26] - Shibi Bai forecasts a net profit of 50 to 60 million for 2025, a significant turnaround from a loss of 3.675 million the previous year, driven by increased demand for metal composite materials[27] - Oufu Egg Industry anticipates a net profit of 80 to 92 million for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 75.44% to 101.75% due to expanded production capacity and improved market conditions[28]

Group 1: Consumer Promotion - In 2026, the implementation of a consumption upgrade program will be optimized, focusing on the replacement of old consumer goods, particularly in the automotive, home appliance, and digital product sectors [3][4] - The service consumption sector will be enhanced through actions aimed at improving the supply levels in cultural entertainment, tourism, dining, and healthcare [3][4] - New growth points in service consumption will be cultivated, including transportation services, housekeeping, and inbound consumption, supported by relevant policies [3][4] Group 2: Foreign Trade Stability - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a series of policies to stabilize foreign trade, including promoting cross-border e-commerce and enhancing the "Export China" brand [5][6] - Service trade and digital trade will be key areas for innovation, with plans to establish national service trade innovation development demonstration zones [5][6] - Efforts will be made to expand the export of productive services and enhance the international capabilities of professional service institutions [5][6] Group 3: Foreign Investment Expansion - In 2026, there will be a focus on creating new advantages for attracting foreign investment, with plans to open up sectors such as telecommunications, healthcare, and education [7][8] - A national-level overseas comprehensive service platform will be established to provide a one-stop service for companies looking to invest abroad [8] - The Ministry of Commerce will accelerate the process of regional and bilateral trade investment agreements, enhancing market access and investment protection [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is focusing on enhancing service consumption and promoting high-quality development in various sectors, including culture, tourism, and healthcare, as part of its 2025 business strategy [1][3][44]. Group 1: Consumption and Economic Growth - In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, marking a 3.7% increase, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, up by 5 percentage points [3][14]. - The implementation of the "old for new" policy boosted sales of durable goods, with sales in related categories like automobiles and home appliances reaching 2.61 trillion yuan, benefiting 366 million people [3][14]. - Service retail sales grew by 5.5%, with sectors like cultural and recreational services, tourism, and transportation seeing double-digit growth [3][14][44]. Group 2: Foreign Trade and Investment - In 2025, China's total goods imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, while service trade grew by 7.1% [4][5]. - The number of enterprises engaged in foreign trade exceeded 780,000, with private enterprises accounting for 57.3% of total foreign trade [4][5]. - Foreign direct investment saw a 19.1% increase, with over 70,000 new foreign enterprises established, and high-tech industries accounted for 32.3% of total foreign investment [5][6]. Group 3: Bilateral and Multilateral Cooperation - China signed 24 free trade agreements with 31 countries and regions, covering 45% of its total goods trade [6][9]. - The government is actively participating in multilateral trade discussions and has proposed reforms to the World Trade Organization to enhance global trade stability [27][28]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative has led to a 6.3% increase in trade with partner countries, reaching 23.6 trillion yuan in 2025 [9][10]. Group 4: Future Strategies - The government plans to continue promoting service consumption by optimizing supply and removing unreasonable restrictions in the service sector [44][46]. - There will be a focus on enhancing the quality of service consumption, including expanding the service industry and encouraging fair competition [44][46]. - The strategy includes fostering new growth points in service consumption, such as transportation, home services, and digital services, to meet evolving consumer demands [46].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the implementation of a more proactive macroeconomic policy in China for 2025, aimed at supporting economic growth and structural transformation while ensuring long-term sustainable development [2][3] - The fiscal policy for 2025 includes a deficit rate set at around 4%, marking a historical high, and a new government debt scale of 11.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [4] - The issuance of special bonds in 2025 is projected to reach 4.59 trillion yuan, the highest in five years, with a focus on infrastructure and social projects [4] Group 2 - In 2025, significant funding is allocated to key areas such as social security, employment, technology, education, and health, with expenditures exceeding 10 trillion yuan in the first eleven months, accounting for over 40% of the general public budget [5] - The government plans to replace 2 trillion yuan of existing hidden debt and allocate 800 billion yuan in new special bonds to support local government financial capacity [5] - A notable initiative includes a 300 billion yuan fund for consumer subsidies, aimed at boosting consumption and driving sales of related goods by approximately 2.6 trillion yuan [5] Group 3 - For 2026, the fiscal policy will continue to maintain necessary levels of deficit, debt, and expenditure, ensuring that spending in key areas remains robust [6] - The government will adopt a zero-based budgeting approach to reduce ineffective spending and redirect funds towards consumption, investment in people, and social welfare [6] - The issuance of long-term special bonds will continue to support key construction and new initiatives, with an increase in personal consumption loan interest subsidies [7] Group 4 - The Ministry of Finance aims to enhance the role of government investment funds to support early-stage investments in hard technology and innovative sectors [8] - New policies will include interest subsidies for technology innovation loans, with a focus on supporting small and medium-sized enterprises in high R&D sectors [8] - Measures to stimulate private investment include loan interest subsidies and risk-sharing mechanisms for private enterprises, alongside a 1 trillion yuan re-loan for private enterprises [8]

中青报·中青网记者 贾骥业 "2025年，面对国内外形势复杂深刻变化，全国上下迎难而上、奋力拼搏，经济社会发展主要目标 顺利完成，经济运行稳中有进，发展韧性进一步彰显，民生政策更有温度，交出了一份高质量答 卷。"国家发展改革委副主任王昌林在1月20日上午举行的国新办新闻发布会上说。 国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，展望2026年，我国经济整体发展态势将持续向好， 消费与投资、科技与产业、城乡与区域都将释放出巨大发展潜能。他从点、线、面3个角度进行了分 析。其中，从点上看，新技术新产品新场景蔚然成势；从线上看，创新链产业链人才链加速融合；从面 上看，动力源地区创新引领作用持续增强。 今年，我国将继续实施"两新"（大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新——记者注）政策。数据显示， 2025年，我国共安排超长期特别国债资金支持约8400个设备更新项目，带动总投资超1万亿元，拉动全 部投资增长1.8个百分点。此外，2025年有超3.6亿人次申领了消费品以旧换新补贴，带动相关商品销售 额超2.6万亿元。 相关数据显示，2025年，我国高技术制造业增加值占规模以上工业的比重已超17%，数字经济增加 值有望达到49万亿元 ...

"内需已经成为驱动转型升级的主动力，引领创造了具有全球影响力的大市场。消费在向新而行，新能 源汽车、网络销售市场规模保持全球第一；投资在向优发力，高技术服务业投资去年增长3.5%，特别 是绿色能源投资持续快速增长。"他说。 服务消费成新亮点 2025年12月底，深圳岗厦北地铁站迎来了一场特殊的展览。展览名为"深临奇晋——山西文化巡展"，以 《黑神话：悟空》山西取景地为线索，将3.3米高的应县木塔模型、佛光寺和南禅寺等木构建筑模型， 以及永乐宫《朝元图》、开化寺壁画、玉皇庙二十八星宿彩塑复制品等重磅展品放置在深圳之眼购物中 心南区展示。《华夏时报》记者在现场看到，不少市民走出地铁站后被巨大的模型或条幅展品吸引，在 展品前驻足观看了好一会儿才离开。 这仅是我国文化、旅游等服务消费不断创新的一个缩影。国家统计局局长康义表示，服务消费是2025年 经济运行中的重要亮点。随着人民生活水平提升，居民消费正从商品消费为主向商品和服务消费并重转 变，服务消费潜力不断释放。2025年服务零售额比上年增长5.5%，快于商品零售额1.7个百分点，最终 消费支出对经济增长的贡献率是52%，比上年的贡献率提高了5个百分点，是经济增长的 ...