用"百颗子"下好"一盘棋"，没有全局意识不行。消除误差要对标对齐，朝着一个目标奋进。以战略思维 和全局视野统筹谋划经济工作，与各种不确定性抢时间，看准了就一次性给足，可以有效放大政策效 应。去年9月以来，我国推出了一揽子增量政策，"两重""两新"加快推进，化债"组合拳"为地方减负， 建立支持小微企业融资的协调机制……财政政策与货币政策共同发力，助市场活跃度快速回升、企业经 营预期较快改善、内需潜力有效激发。加强顶层设计，瞄准一致目标，各项政策积极有为、合力作为， 推动政策效能充分释放，将为高质量发展注入更多确定性。 使"千根线"拧成"一股绳"，没有系统观念不行。把经济政策和非经济性政策统一纳入一致性评估， 以"扩列"提升精度；加强重点事项统筹协调，明确职责分工，强化条块联动，以"组团"提升效率；中央 财政安排超长期特别国债资金支持"两新"，省级财政部门制定资金分配方案，市县财政部门细化具体项 目和单位，以"串联"落实执行……既在纵向上"一竿子插到底"，也在横向上"打好组合拳"，让各项政策 环环相扣、融为整体，发展之势才能不断向上。 以战略思维和全局视野统筹谋划经济工作，与各种不确定性抢时间，看准了就一次性给足 ...

今年以来，我国快递市场规模持续增长，快递业着力提升服务水平，加快推动智能化、绿色化、国际化发展，高效支撑线上消 费活力释放。 数据显示，1—8月，我国快递业务量累计完成1282.0亿件，同比增长17.8%。其中，1至2月，日均业务量约6.2亿件，超2024 年"双11"日均水平。 国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所副所长 魏际刚：快递具有很强的连接性、纽带性、渗透性和融合性。它使得东西部之间， 东中西之间这种连接更加紧密，使得生产的分工合作更加进一步深化。我们的流通效率更高，流动成本不断地降低。商流、物 流、资金流、信息流的一体化运作的程度不断地在纵深推进。 中国人民大学中国就业与民生研究院副院长 周广肃：电商的发展极大地扩展了销售的半径，充分发挥了消费对于经济增长的提 振作用。 快递公司加速海外布局 今年以来，我国跨境电商也不断加快在海外的布局。 在云南昆明自贸区，90后的罗帅在五年前成立了电商公司，通过直播等手段目前对接业务的国家已不少于10个。今年上半年， 公司的销售额已经接近去年全年水平。 今年以来，我国快递行业充分满足直播带货、假日经济、消费品以旧换新等寄递需求，深入挖掘文旅、赛事等场景潜在寄递需 求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article presents six policy recommendations aimed at promoting stable economic growth and addressing current economic challenges, including limited domestic demand, structural overcapacity, deflationary pressures, and unstable expectations [1][4][8]. Group 1: Policy Recommendations - Recommendation 1: Advance the government investment and financing quotas for the next year to utilize fiscal resources effectively, with an expected increase in local special bond quotas to over 4.5 trillion yuan, suggesting an early allocation of 1.5-2 trillion yuan [9][10]. - Recommendation 2: Continue to release positive signals through monetary policy, potentially lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% and interest rates by 0.2% in the fourth quarter, while considering the resumption of government bond purchases [11][12]. - Recommendation 3: Lower the operational thresholds for two monetary policy tools supporting the capital market and standardize the operations of the Central Huijin Investment Company [12][13]. - Recommendation 4: Further reduce mortgage rates and optimize personal housing tax policies, including a suggested 25 basis point reduction in long-term housing provident fund loan rates [14][15]. - Recommendation 5: Increase the consumption subsidy for replacing old goods by 100 billion yuan and expand the subsidy scope to include various consumer goods [16][17]. - Recommendation 6: Strengthen fiscal and financial support, optimize tax refund services, enhance trade facilitation, and provide assistance to foreign trade enterprises and unemployed individuals [18][19][20]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - Domestic demand remains limited, with fixed asset investment growth slowing to 0.5% year-on-year from January to August, and infrastructure investment declining by 2.0% [4][5]. - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with a year-on-year drop in national commercial housing sales area of 11% in August, and real estate investment down by 12.9% from January to August [5][6]. - Credit growth is notably weak, with a decrease in credit balance for the first time since 2005, and new credit issuance in August at 590 billion yuan, below last year's already low levels [6][7]. - Deflationary pressures persist, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to -0.4% year-on-year in August, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) at -2.9% [7].

连平/文 当前，国际局势仍然纷繁复杂、扑朔迷离，可以概括为"四个确定"和"三个不确定"。"四个确定"分别 是：世界经济复苏压力显著增大、关税驱动美国通胀反弹、美国经济正处于强弱换档期、美联储开启本 轮第二阶段降息。"三个不确定性"分别是：中美对等关税谈判悬念犹存、地缘政治风险多点共振前景难 料、美联储年内降息频率和幅度仍存变数。四季度外部环境确定性因素和不确定性因素复杂交织，有可 能搅动全球资本流动、市场汇率和外贸格局，从不同维度给中国经济带来结构性压力和挑战。 目前，国内需求积弱、产能结构性过剩、通货紧缩压力、预期不稳等问题依然不容忽视。三季度以来， 部分经济金融指标表现不佳：一是基建投资增速下滑，对投资增速形成阶段性拖累。1—8月固定资产投 资累计同比降至0.5%，其中基建投资（不含电力）累计同比下降至2.0%，已连续四个月环比逐月下 降，短期来看受到基建投资资金错位、部分区域高温暴雨等因素影响。从中长期来看，当前"十四五"规 划进入收官阶段，大量存量项目已进入建设后期，而"十五五"规划的新项目尚未大规模启动，出现了一 定程度上的项目衔接的空窗期，"缺优质项目"成为基建投资增长的核心矛盾。 二是房地产市场 ...

财政部：截至今年8月底，消费品以旧换新带动销售额超2.9万亿元 中新网9月12日电 国新办12日举行"高质量完成'十四五'规划"系列主题新闻发布会，介绍"十四五"时期 财政改革发展成效。财政部部长蓝佛安在会上表示，"十四五"时期，财政部认真落实扩大内需战略，从 供需两侧协同发力，打出一系列"组合拳"，推动消费和投资良性互动，更好发挥内需的主动力和稳定锚 作用，增强高质量发展内生动力。 编辑：徐世明 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 一是强根基，在保障和改善民生中扩大消费需求。突出以就业带动增收，提升消费能力。财政部实施稳 岗返还、就业补贴等一系列政策，"十四五"时期，中央财政安排就业补助资金3186亿元，比"十三五"时 期增长29%，城镇累计新增就业超过5000万人。健全社会保障体系，提升养老、医疗、社会救助等保障 水平，减轻老百姓的后顾之忧，增强消费底气。 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 二是挖潜力，"真金白银"激发消费活力。财政部大力支持消费品以旧换新，截至今年8月底，国家财政 一共拿出约4200亿元，带动各类商品销售额超2.9万亿元。安排专项资金，支持开展县域商业建设行 动，引导释放乡村消费潜能，" ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the "double interest subsidy" policy for personal consumption loans and service industry loans aims to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand, which is a key focus of current economic work [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Impact - The "double interest subsidy" policy is designed to effectively release the potential of domestic demand and support various consumer expenditures, including home renovations and essential services [1][2]. - For example, a consumer taking a loan of 200,000 yuan for home improvement could save approximately 2,000 yuan in interest payments due to a 1% subsidy, while a restaurant upgrading its facilities with a 1,000,000 yuan loan could save around 10,000 yuan [1]. - The policy covers a wide range of consumer needs, from essential items to discretionary spending, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulating consumption [1][2]. Group 2: Consumer Loan Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the balance of consumer loans (excluding housing loans) in China is projected to reach 21.01 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.2% [2]. - Empirical studies show that the introduction of consumer financial products can increase borrowing consumers' spending by 16% to 30%, while merchant sales can rise by approximately 40% [2]. - There is a notable supply-demand gap in consumer credit services, with the demand rate exceeding actual participation by 5.3 percentage points in 2021, up from 2.5 percentage points in 2019 [2]. Group 3: Broader Economic Policies - The "double interest subsidy" policy is part of a broader set of measures aimed at enhancing consumer confidence and spending, including free preschool education and childcare subsidies [2]. - The government has initiated various policies, including a 500 billion yuan service consumption and elderly care re-loan program, to create a cohesive framework for stimulating consumption [2]. - The "national subsidy" program for replacing old consumer goods has already driven over 2.9 trillion yuan in consumption, benefiting around 400 million people [3]. Group 4: Innovation and Consumer Engagement - Understanding consumer psychology and preferences is crucial for creating demand and enhancing consumption, emphasizing the importance of innovation [4]. - Innovative products and services, such as cultural souvenirs and drone delivery systems, are emerging as effective ways to engage consumers and meet new demands [3][4]. - The market's capacity is significant, and businesses are encouraged to leverage policy benefits while focusing on genuine innovation to boost consumption [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a key driver for economic growth and enhancing people's well-being, with a call for stronger fiscal and financial policies to unleash domestic demand potential [1][2][4] - A series of fiscal measures, including the allocation of 300 billion yuan in special government bonds for consumption upgrades, are being implemented to stimulate consumer spending [1][2] - The implementation of personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies aims to support consumer spending and stabilize market expectations [2][4] Group 2 - The government is focusing on innovative consumption scenarios to meet the diverse and multi-layered consumer demands, promoting new growth points in consumption [3] - Specific policies are being introduced to enhance sports consumption, recognizing its potential and broad consumer base, with financial support for related service providers [3] - The optimization of consumer services is crucial for ensuring that policies effectively benefit consumers, with a focus on simplifying processes for accessing financial support [4]

中国发展网讯 记者高杨报道 9月4日，山东省政府新闻办召开政策例行吹风会，解读了《关于促进经济 稳健向好、进中提质第三批政策清单》和《关于推动服务业高质量发展的若干措施》。据省发展改革委 副主任刘勇介绍，本次政策措施涵盖了全省服务业、工业、建筑业、文旅消费等多个领域，主要包括3 个方面。 增强服务业支撑拉动。将加力落实2亿元省服务业发展引导资金，支持一批新增纳统企业以及高端化生 产性服务业、高品质生活性服务业重点项目建设；在此基础上，下半年省级新增安排1亿元财政资金， 加力支持服务业发展，对高成长性以及新增升规纳统骨干企业在建项目加大支持力度，帮助企业稳运 营、扩投资，培育更多优质增量，提升服务业贡献度。同时，增强消费拉动作用，用好消费品以旧换新 支持资金，指导各市做好测算分配，切实用在效果好、拉动强的消费领域；支持各市因城施策实施住 房"以旧换新"，对推动房地产市场健康发展成效较好的市，省级将统筹资金给予激励支持。 更大力度保障项目建设。抢抓施工黄金期，全力推进省市县三级、年度拟投产、政策性资金重点项目， 尤其是突出破解要素制约，完善"要素跟着项目走"机制，服务保障一批重大项目快建设、早达效。围绕 政策性资 ...

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the implementation of consumption-boosting policies to enhance consumer demand and improve living standards [1] - The State Council meeting highlighted the need for effective use of "two new" subsidy funds and to combat fraudulent claims [1] - A total of 690 billion yuan in special bonds will be allocated to support the old-for-new consumption policy [2] Group 2 - A new childcare subsidy program will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [3] - From the fall semester of 2025, public kindergartens will waive education fees for the final year of preschool [4] Group 3 - Personal consumption loans will benefit from a subsidy program from September 2025 to August 2026, with a maximum subsidy of 3,000 yuan per borrower [5] - Subsidies will be provided for elderly individuals with moderate to severe disabilities to support their care services [6] Group 4 - Financial support for key consumption sectors will be enhanced, including measures to facilitate the replacement of old consumer goods [7] - Special support will be given to fresh agricultural products that are concentrated in the market [8] Group 5 - The government will provide financial assistance for care services for severely disabled individuals, encouraging local policies to support these services [9] - A loan interest subsidy policy for service industry operators will be implemented, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per entity [10]

Group 1: Economic Policy and Internal Demand - The central government emphasizes the need to effectively release internal demand potential and stimulate consumption to support economic growth [1][6] - In the first half of the year, internal demand contributed 68.8% to GDP growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [2] - The government has implemented policies such as the "old for new" consumption program, which has led to significant increases in retail sales across various categories [2] Group 2: Service Consumption Growth - Service consumption has been growing rapidly, with projections indicating that by 2024, it will account for 46.1% of per capita consumption expenditure [3] - Households are increasingly spending more on services like home care, fitness, and tourism compared to goods, indicating a substantial growth potential in service consumption [3] - Strategies to activate consumer demand include creating immersive consumption experiences and issuing targeted consumption vouchers [3] Group 3: Investment Expansion - The government has allocated 800 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction projects and 735 billion yuan for central budget investments, which are expected to drive infrastructure investment growth [4] - Manufacturing investment has increased by 6.2% year-on-year, outpacing overall investment growth, supported by large-scale equipment updates [4][5] - There is a focus on optimizing investment structure to meet changing demand, particularly in education, healthcare, and quality housing [5] Group 4: Reform and Market Integration - The government aims to deepen reforms to address the challenges of insufficient internal demand, with policies focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations [6][7] - Efforts will be made to enhance the consumption policy framework and expand effective investment, particularly in sectors like transportation, energy, and water resources [7] - The goal is to create a unified national market that facilitates efficient resource allocation and circulation [6][7]