中央政治局日前召开会议强调，要有效释放内需潜力。近日召开的国务院第九次全体会议提出，持续激 发消费潜力，加力扩大有效投资，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，不断释放超大规模市场红利。 今年以来，面对外部环境变化，我国把发展的立足点更多放在扩大内需、做强国内大循环上，一系列政 策举措有效激发了内需潜力。专家认为，下半年扩内需等政策效果将继续显现，为经济平稳健康发展提 供支撑。 更加注重补上消费短板 今年上半年，内需对GDP增长的贡献率达到68.8%，其中最终消费支出贡献率为52%，继续发挥增长主 动力作用。 加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新政策，有效激发了消费活力。今年第三批690亿元支持消费品以旧换新的 超长期特别国债资金已下达完毕。在以旧换新政策带动下，7月份，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材 类、文化办公用品类、家具类和通讯器材类商品零售额同比分别增长28.7%、13.8%、20.6%、14.9%， 均明显快于商品零售额增速。 中央政治局会议提出，"在扩大商品消费的同时，培育服务消费新的增长点""在保障改善民生中扩大消 费需求"。中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬认为，这预示着促消费的重点将会转向服务消费以及改善民 生方面， ...

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has allocated 188 billion yuan in investment subsidies for equipment upgrades, supporting approximately 8,400 projects across various sectors, leading to a total investment exceeding 1 trillion yuan [1] - In the first half of the year, the industrial added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with the equipment manufacturing sector seeing a significant growth of 10.2%, driven by a new wave of equipment upgrades and the "two new" policy [1] - Domestic investment in the purchase of equipment and tools rose by 17.3% year-on-year, contributing 86% to the overall investment growth, indicating strong demand for equipment upgrades in industries such as shipbuilding and motor manufacturing [1] Group 2 - The NDRC is promoting energy-saving and carbon-reduction transformations, encouraging enterprises to build ultra-efficient and zero-carbon factories, and exploring a "green manufacturing" model [2] - The NDRC plans to enhance coordination and project management to ensure effective use of central funds and maximize the impact of the "two new" policy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Sichuan Provincial People's Congress approved the 2024 provincial budget settlement, highlighting a stable financial performance despite complex economic conditions, with a focus on economic recovery and development strategies [2][4][25]. Financial Performance Summary - The total local general public budget revenue for 2024 was 563.6 billion yuan, achieving 97.5% of the budget, with a growth of 1.9% [4]. - Total expenditure reached 1,344.7 billion yuan, completing 90.6% of the budget, with a growth of 5.6% [4]. - Government fund budget revenue was 376.1 billion yuan, achieving 96.2% of the budget, while expenditure was 602.6 billion yuan, completing 88.2% of the budget [4]. - The state-owned capital operation budget revenue was 20.2 billion yuan, exceeding the budget by 42%, with expenditure of 9.1 billion yuan, completing 80.5% of the budget [4]. - Social insurance fund budget revenue was 682.7 billion yuan, achieving 101.5% of the budget, with expenditure of 596.5 billion yuan, completing 99.3% of the budget [4]. Budget Allocation and Expenditure - The provincial general public budget revenue was 97.6 billion yuan, achieving 96.3% of the budget, with a decrease of 1.8% [5]. - Tax revenue was 84.5 billion yuan, achieving 94.4% of the budget, with value-added tax at 43.5 billion yuan, corporate income tax at 20.7 billion yuan, and personal income tax at 6.3 billion yuan [6]. - Social security and employment expenditure was 126.0 billion yuan, completing 99.4% of the budget, while education expenditure was 23.6 billion yuan, completing 90.7% of the budget [6]. Debt Management - The total issuance of local government bonds in 2024 was 507.9 billion yuan, including 253.1 billion yuan of new bonds and 254.8 billion yuan of refinancing bonds [11]. - The provincial debt balance at the end of 2024 was 2,402.9 billion yuan, with general debt at 807.4 billion yuan and special debt at 1,595.5 billion yuan [12]. Economic Development Support - The provincial government allocated 20 billion yuan to support technological breakthroughs and major projects in various industries [14]. - A total of 35.7 billion yuan was allocated to support urbanization and improve living conditions [15]. - Infrastructure projects received 1,542 billion yuan in special bonds to support over 1,800 projects [16]. - 8,839.3 billion yuan was allocated to improve living standards and social welfare [18]. Fiscal Management Reforms - The provincial government implemented measures to enhance fiscal quality, including 33 policy measures to strengthen revenue sources and improve expenditure management [20]. - Budget management reforms were initiated to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of budget preparation and execution [21]. - A focus on performance management was established to ensure funds are allocated to high-efficiency areas [22].

Group 1: Economic Policy and Investment - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has fully allocated the 800 billion yuan for "two heavy" construction projects and 735 billion yuan of central budget investment to stabilize investment and promote consumption [3][4] - There is a need for further strengthening of investment policies due to declining investment returns and short-term internal competition affecting investment parameters [3][4] - The NDRC plans to accelerate the establishment of new policy financial tools to encourage private enterprises to participate in major national projects and improve investment return levels [3][4] Group 2: Consumption Promotion - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in special bonds for consumer goods replacement has been allocated, with plans for a fourth batch in October, aiming to complete the annual target of 300 billion yuan [4] - The replacement program has already driven sales exceeding 1.7 trillion yuan, with significant year-on-year growth in retail sales of home appliances and new energy vehicles [4] - The focus of policy support is shifting towards restoring and expanding consumer spending, particularly for low-income groups and elderly populations [4][5] Group 3: Artificial Intelligence and New Economic Drivers - The implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative aims to promote large-scale commercial applications of AI and optimize the innovation ecosystem [7] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5% in the first half of the year, indicating a faster growth rate compared to overall industrial output [7] - The initiative is seen as crucial for cultivating new economic drivers and upgrading traditional industries through improved efficiency and reduced costs [7] Group 4: Market Regulation and Competition - The NDRC is working on a comprehensive plan to deepen the construction of a unified national market, with logistics costs as a percentage of GDP decreasing to 14% [9][10] - Policies will be introduced to regulate market behavior, including a list of actions that hinder market unity and fair competition [9][10] - There is a focus on addressing issues of "involution" and disorderly competition, with an emphasis on industry self-regulation and upgrading industries [9][10]

Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is characterized by both strategic opportunities and risks, with increasing uncertainties in the economic environment[5] - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of 2025, supported by policies such as the trade-in program for consumer goods and proactive fiscal measures[7][8] Policy Direction - The government aims to maintain stable and flexible fiscal and monetary policies, with an emphasis on timely adjustments based on economic conditions[9][10] - A total of 11.86 trillion yuan in new fiscal deficits and special bonds is planned for 2025, with 5,550 billion yuan of long-term special bonds already issued by June 2025[11] Consumption and Services - The government is focusing on boosting service consumption, which is currently a weak point in the economy, by expanding the scope of trade-in policies to include service sectors[12][13] - The trade-in program for consumer goods is expected to generate over 1.6 trillion yuan in sales, accounting for more than 6.5% of total retail sales in the first half of 2025[12] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a slow recovery phase, with urban renewal initiatives being a key strategy to stabilize housing demand[25] - Despite a brief recovery in early 2025, real estate sales and investment have shown negative growth since May, necessitating further government intervention[25] Debt Management - The government is committed to managing local government debt risks, prohibiting the creation of new hidden debts, and promoting the clearance of financing platforms[26][27] - The focus is on transforming local financing platforms to operate independently from government control by mid-2027[27][28] Capital Market Stability - The capital market has shown resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 7.9% since the beginning of the year, stabilizing around 3,600 points[29] - Efforts will be made to enhance the attractiveness and inclusiveness of the domestic capital market to maintain its upward momentum[29][30]

Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing the annual target of 5% [1] - The contribution of consumption to economic growth reached 52% in the first half of the year, with total retail sales of consumer goods amounting to 24.55 trillion yuan, a 5% increase year-on-year [4] Consumption Trends - The retail sales growth rate for the catering industry significantly declined from 5.2% in April and 5.9% in May to just 0.9% in June, with the average growth rate for the second quarter at 4.0%, down from 5% in the first quarter [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted retail sales, but its effectiveness is expected to diminish over time, necessitating new strategies to boost domestic demand [4][9] Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of weakness in the second quarter, with fixed asset investment growth slowing down and real estate investment declining further, with a year-on-year drop of 11.2% by June [5] - New residential sales area decreased by 3.7% year-on-year in June, indicating a continued downturn in the real estate sector [5] External Economic Factors - Exports to the U.S. fell by 24% in the second quarter, while exports to other regions, such as ASEAN and India, increased by 17.5% and 14.3% respectively [7] - The expiration of the 90-day tariff suspension on August 1 poses additional risks to the economic outlook, with potential new tariffs being implemented by the U.S. [7][8] Future Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the focus for the second half of the year should be on expanding domestic demand, with fiscal spending being a key driver [9][10] - Recommendations include utilizing public budget funds and considering the issuance of an additional 2.3 trillion yuan in government bonds to support fiscal expenditure growth [9]

核心观点：做强国内大循环，"舒筋活血"至关重要。破解堵点卡点，不仅要求破除阻碍循环的空间"物 理阻隔"，也需要消除制度层面的"化学惰性"；不仅要实现要素的"流量增长"，更要追求配置效率的"质 变跃升"。 国务院常务会议7月16日召开，研究做强国内大循环重点政策举措落实工作，并作出一系列针对性部 署。会议指出，做强国内大循环是推动经济行稳致远的战略之举。 内需始终是中国经济发展的主动力和稳定锚。过去四年最终消费对中国经济增长的平均贡献率达到 56.2%，比"十三五"期间提高8.6个百分点。今年上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率为68.8%，其中最终消 费支出贡献率为52%，是经济增长的主动力。 经济高质量发展需要更大规模、更多层次、更优结构、更强韧性、更高质量的国内市场作为强劲引擎。 今年以来，我国将做强国内大循环摆在更加重要的位置，综合施策扩大内需、促进生产、畅通循环。5 月份，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，明确提出把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上。 此次国务院常务会议则给出了更加细化的工作重点，就是加快破解制约国内大循环的堵点卡点。 当然，要建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场，做强国内 ...

Economic Performance - Q2 2025 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, showing resilience, supported by export growth offsetting construction sector decline[4] - The nominal GDP growth rate was 1.3% lower than the real GDP growth, indicating price level adjustments are needed[4] Industrial and Service Sector Insights - Industrial added value in June increased by 1.0 percentage point to 6.8% year-on-year, with modern service sectors showing stability[5] - The service sector's production growth was steady, with information technology services rising for five consecutive months[5] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed to 5.4%, with operational net income being a significant drag[5] - The consumer spending rate in Q2 was 68.6%, better than the same period in 2022-2024 but still below pre-pandemic levels[5] Consumption Trends - Retail sales in June fell by 1.6 percentage points to 4.8%, with the "trade-in" program's contribution declining[6] - By June, the progress of the "trade-in" program reached approximately 54%, with expectations for further consumer stimulus policies in the second half of 2025[6] Investment and Construction - Fixed asset investment growth slowed, with real estate investment down by 11.2% year-on-year in June[7] - Manufacturing investment decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 7.5%, influenced by tariff disruptions and "anti-involution" measures[7] Future Economic Outlook - The first half of 2025 exceeded GDP targets with a 5.3% growth, but Q4 may face downward pressure due to weakening investment and consumption trends[8] - The potential fading of export support and challenges in the real estate market could impact future growth rates[8] Risk Factors - Risks include potential policy changes that may not meet expectations and the possibility of an unexpected downturn in the U.S. economy[9]

Economic Overview - In the first half of the year, China's GDP reached 66.05 trillion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with the first and second industries growing by 3.7% and 5.3% respectively, while the tertiary industry grew by 5.5% [1][5] - The GDP growth rate for the first quarter was 5.4%, while the second quarter saw a slight decline to 5.2%, primarily due to investment drag, especially in real estate [1][3] Consumption Trends - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5% year-on-year in the first half, with a notable impact from the "old-for-new" policy on key items like mobile phones, home appliances, and automobiles [2][5] - Service retail sales grew by 5.3%, driven by holiday consumption and inbound tourism, with significant increases in foreign visitors during the May Day and Dragon Boat Festival holidays [2][5] Export Performance - China's total goods import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, with exports at 13 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports decreased by 2.7% [3][5] - The export growth rate improved in the second quarter, with a notable resilience despite high tariffs imposed by the U.S., and a significant increase in exports to the EU and ASEAN [3][5] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a decline compared to the first quarter [4][5] - Real estate investment saw a significant drop of 11.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [4][5] Policy and Future Outlook - The government is expected to continue implementing policies to stabilize growth, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and addressing the issue of insufficient effective demand [6][7] - The upcoming "old-for-new" consumption policy is anticipated to boost consumer spending in the fourth quarter, although it may raise the baseline for comparison [7][8]

Group 1: Market Overview and Asset Allocation - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in June, with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and ChiNext Index rising by 2.3%, 2.1%, and 6.6% respectively [1][13] - The bond market strengthened, with an overall increase of 0.3%, and government bond yields for 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds decreasing by 11.0bp, 5.5bp, and 2.9bp respectively [1][13] - The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation in July, influenced by the gradual implementation of fiscal policies and the upcoming Politburo meeting [2][36] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The domestic economy remains resilient, with a projected GDP growth rate of approximately 5.2% year-on-year for Q2 and 5.3% for the first half of the year [4][53] - The export sector is experiencing a gradual decline, with the impact of tariffs expected to deepen, while domestic demand continues to support industrial production [2][53] - The upcoming Politburo meeting is anticipated to focus on implementing previous policies rather than introducing new stimulus measures [4][53] Group 3: Sector Strategies - Investment strategies suggest focusing on low-position, rebound sectors, particularly in technology, real estate, and supply-side reform, which are expected to benefit from policy support [2][44] - The AI industry chain has shown performance, with domestic PCB and CPO sectors leading gains, although caution is advised due to potential adjustments in overseas markets [44][47] - Consumer sectors, particularly those benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policies, are expected to see positive impacts, including white goods and baby products [47][48] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is viewed as a critical window for potential interest rate cuts, with expectations of a reduction of 10-15bp [3][48] - The yield on 10-year government bonds has shown a downward trend, with a recent peak of 1.7% and a subsequent decline to around 1.63% [3][48] - The bond yield movements are closely aligned with macroeconomic fundamentals, indicating a potential rebound following any interest rate cuts [3][48]