2025 年 05 月 05 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 马闻倬 S0350124070011 mawz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 震荡行情中，何处破局？ 固定收益点评 最近一年走势 投资要点: 近期债市走势震荡，主要原因在于：一方面，外部关税冲击下，债 市反应迅速，逼近前期低点，定价基本面走弱预期和宽货币预期； 另一方面，从银行资产比价角度看，当前债市点位暗含 20BP 左右 的降息幅度，但宽货币政策节奏尚未明朗，利率下行也受阻。 我们复盘了 2022 年以来债市经历的震荡行情： 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 相关报告 《固定收益点评：5 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 2025-04-27 《固定收益点评：超长债供给压力几何？*靳毅》 ——2025-04-20 《固定收益点评：债市如何交易关税冲击？*靳毅》 ——2025-04-14 《固定收益点评：政府债供给放量，会扰动债市 吗？*靳毅》——2025-04-06 《固定收益点评：4 月资金面怎么看？*靳毅》—— 20 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据快评 开年财政收入承压 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部发布 2025 年 1-2 月财政收支情况，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比-1.6%。其中税收收入 36349 亿元，同比-3.9%；非税收入 7507 亿元，同比 11%。一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比 3.4%。中 央本级支出 5242 亿元，同比 8.6%；地方支出 39854 亿元，同比 2.7%。 评论： 与去年类似，开年财政收入承压，非税收入增速较 12 月大幅下滑。1-2 月收入同比-1.6%，去年实现 1.3%。 其中税收收入-3.9%，去年-3.4%。税收收入增速低于去年 12 月当月的 2.7%,显著回落；与非税收入 2024 年 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities following the "Two Sessions" policy signals [3]. Core Insights - The manufacturing sector has returned to an expansion phase, with a PMI of 50.2 in February 2025, indicating improved production and new orders [8]. - The construction industry has shown significant improvement, with a PMI of 52.7 in February 2025, driven by post-holiday resumption of work and supportive fiscal policies [13]. - There has been a notable increase in corporate credit demand, with new RMB loans reaching 4.78 trillion yuan in January 2025, reflecting a recovery in the real economy [16]. - The government work report highlights a commitment to maintaining a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2025, alongside a historic high fiscal deficit rate of 4% [27][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Manufacturing Sector Recovery - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February 2025, with production and new orders indices at 52.5 and 51.1 respectively, indicating a return to expansion [8]. - Export orders have improved, with a new export orders index at 48.6, suggesting better-than-expected export performance despite tariff impacts [8]. 2. Significant Growth in Corporate Credit - In January 2025, the new social financing scale reached 7.06 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans contributing significantly to this growth [16]. - The increase in corporate credit demand is attributed to enhanced confidence in the economy and supportive government policies [23]. 3. Government Work Report Highlights - The report sets a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025, maintaining consistency with previous years [27]. - The fiscal deficit rate is set to rise to 4% in 2025, reflecting a strong commitment to fiscal expansion [28]. - The government plans to increase the special bond quota to 4.4 trillion yuan in 2025, with a focus on infrastructure and debt resolution [29].