Production - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.4%, indicating resilience in industrial operations[1] - The service production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[1] Investment - Fixed asset investment in November saw a month-on-month decline of 12.0%, with a cumulative growth rate dropping to -2.6%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Infrastructure investment showed a cumulative growth rate of 0.1% for broad infrastructure and -1.1% for narrow infrastructure, both continuing to decline[2] - Real estate investment fell by 15.9% cumulatively, with funding and sales also showing significant declines, indicating ongoing instability in housing prices[2] Consumption - Social retail sales grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to high base effects from last year[3] - Restaurant consumption showed relative resilience with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, while retail sales of goods increased by only 1.0%, reflecting a notable slowdown[3] Policy Outlook - The necessity for policy support has increased due to continued weak demand, with the December Central Economic Work Conference emphasizing the need for proactive fiscal measures and enhancing macroeconomic governance[5] - The policy toolbox remains ample, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply[5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the national economy in November exhibits characteristics of "stable production, differentiated consumption, and pressured investment" [1] - The production side is recovering to a normal pace as the impact of holiday disruptions fades, with emerging industries becoming the main support for production and investment, although industrial growth has slightly slowed down and significant industry differentiation is evident [1] - In the consumption sector, the pattern of "weak goods, strong services" continues, with limited promotional effects during the sales season; there is a need for policy support to boost commodity retail, especially for durable goods in the bulk and real estate chains [1] Group 2 - The investment sector is under overall pressure, with infrastructure investment showing lackluster performance due to funding and project constraints, while real estate investment remains under pressure; however, there are bright spots in high-tech manufacturing investment [1] - Short-term policy efforts and marginal improvements in foreign trade provide some support, but long-term growth still requires integrated policy strengthening to consolidate endogenous growth momentum [1]

Economic Overview - Effective demand remains significantly insufficient, with industrial added value in November increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in the previous period[3] - Retail sales growth has notably slowed to 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% previously[3] - Fixed asset investment year-on-year remains stable at approximately -11%, consistent with the previous value of -11.2%[5] Sector Performance - High-tech industry added value rose by 8.4% year-on-year, up from 7.2% previously[4] - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, recovering from a decline of 1.1%[3] - Real estate sales area decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, an improvement from a 18.6% decline previously, while sales revenue fell by 24.7%, worsening from a 24.1% decline[5] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in November decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment down by 4.5% and real estate investment down by 30.1%[5] - The construction area for new projects fell by 27.6% year-on-year, while the area under construction dropped by 40%[5] - The total investment in fixed assets for the first 11 months of the year showed a year-on-year decline of 2.6%, with non-real estate fixed asset investment increasing by 0.8%[5] Policy Implications - The central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction and to stimulate investment and consumption[7] - The potential for policy measures to strengthen demand has opened up following the release of November's economic data[7]

Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with industrial added value year-on-year at 4.8%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, primarily due to base effects [1][5][21] - The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak: fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately flat at -11%, real estate sales area decline has slightly narrowed, but sales revenue decline has widened, and retail sales growth has significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][21] Industrial Performance - The seasonally adjusted industrial added value month-on-month is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average for the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production [17][24] - High-tech industries saw a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, leading the growth, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots; however, production of smartphones and solar cells experienced negative year-on-year growth [8][25][23] Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted retail sales month-on-month decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year; the highest absolute growth was in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year, while durable goods like home appliances and automobiles showed the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [2][11][26] Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted fixed asset investment month-on-month decreased by 1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%, with a year-on-year decline of 11.1%, consistent with the previous value [3][12][27] - Manufacturing investment saw a narrowing decline, while real estate investment's decline widened; infrastructure investment remained relatively unchanged [3][12][27] Real Estate Sector - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels, with a slight narrowing in the decline of sales area, but an expansion in the decline of sales revenue; new construction area also saw a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area decline expanded [4][14][29] - The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still at a high point for the year [4][14][29] GDP and Economic Policy - The actual GDP index simulated from industrial added value and service production index year-on-year was 4.31%, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.02% for the first eleven months [15][30] - The latest central economic work conference highlighted the need to address the prominent contradiction of strong supply and weak demand, emphasizing the importance of stabilizing investment and boosting consumption [20][30]

Economic Overview - The economic data for November indicates a significant lack of effective demand, with supply remaining relatively stable. Industrial added value year-on-year is at 4.8%, slightly down from the previous value of 4.9%, primarily due to base effects. The demand side shows a clear divergence, with export growth rebounding while domestic demand remains weak. Fixed asset investment year-on-year is approximately -11%, consistent with previous values. Real estate sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but sales revenue has expanded in its year-on-year decline. Retail sales have significantly slowed to 1.3% year-on-year [1][5][6]. Industrial Production - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month industrial added value is 0.44%, higher than October and roughly in line with the average of the previous ten months, indicating little change in the real intensity of industrial production. High-tech industries have seen a year-on-year added value growth of 8.4%, with significant production increases in integrated circuits and industrial robots. However, smartphone and solar cell production have experienced negative year-on-year growth, while construction materials like crude steel and cement also show negative growth [8][10][12]. Retail Sales - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month retail sales have decreased by 0.42%, marking the lowest point of the year. Among major categories, the highest absolute growth is in communication equipment at 20.6% year-on-year. However, durable consumer goods such as home appliances and automobiles show the lowest growth due to high base effects and reduced promotional efforts [11][12]. Fixed Asset Investment - The seasonally adjusted month-on-month fixed asset investment is -1.03%, slightly better than the previous value of -1.5%. Year-on-year, it stands at -11.1%, consistent with the previous value. Manufacturing investment has seen a slight narrowing in decline, while real estate investment has expanded its decline. Infrastructure investment remains relatively unchanged. The issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools is expected to support some projects in manufacturing and infrastructure, but current data does not yet reflect this impact [12][13][16]. Real Estate Market - Real estate-related indicators remain at low levels. The sales area has seen a slight narrowing in decline, but the sales revenue decline has expanded. New construction area has also seen a slight narrowing in decline, while construction area has expanded its decline. The price index for new residential properties in 70 large and medium-sized cities has decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, slightly better than October's 0.5% decline, but still among the highest declines of the year [16][17]. GDP Simulation - The simulated actual GDP index based on industrial added value and service production index year-on-year is approximately 4.22%. The cumulative actual GDP year-on-year for the first eleven months stands at 5.02%. The economic data indicates strong resilience in exports, while the main weaknesses lie in domestic demand, particularly in consumption, fixed investment, and real estate [4][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant decline in total sales in July 2025, with a drop of 38.1% from June, resulting in a total of 229.4 billion RMB [1] - The sales figures for 20 major listed developers tracked by the company showed a 40.2% month-on-month decrease in July, attributed to seasonal factors, with average sales price and sales area decreasing by 21.4% and 21.8% respectively [1] - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, suggesting that there is still room for more policy support, particularly in areas such as urban village and dilapidated housing renovation, "good housing" construction, optimizing land supply, and strengthening financial support [1] Group 2 - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the new commodity residential price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities fell by 3.7% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month in June, while the second-hand commodity residential price index decreased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The company anticipates that demand in the secondary market will continue to improve and outperform the primary market [1] - The company maintains a positive long-term outlook on China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123), both rated as "buy," due to their strong sales performance and execution capabilities in recent years [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International indicates a significant decline in total sales in July 2025, with a 38.1% month-on-month decrease to 229.4 billion RMB, attributed to seasonal factors affecting sales prices and areas sold [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The total sales amount for July 2025 dropped from 370.7 billion RMB in June, marking a 38.1% decrease [1] - The sales figures for 20 major listed developers tracked by the company fell by 40.2% month-on-month in July [1] - The average sales price and sales area decreased by 21.4% and 21.8% respectively on a month-on-month basis [1] Group 2: Policy Outlook - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with expectations for further policy support in the future [1] - Policies related to urban village and dilapidated housing renovation, construction of "good houses," optimizing land supply, and strengthening financial support are anticipated to continue [1] Group 3: Market Expectations - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the new commodity residential price index for June showed a year-on-year decline of 3.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% [1] - The second-hand commodity residential price index fell by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month [1] - CMB International expects demand in the secondary market to continue improving and outperform the primary market [1] Group 4: Company Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on China Resources Land (01109) and Yuexiu Property (00123), both rated as "Buy" [1] - These companies have demonstrated strong sales performance over the past few years and possess superior execution capabilities in sales [1]