近期，由水电水利规划设计总院编制的《中国可再生能源发展报告2024年度》（以下简称《报告》）发 布。 《报告》显示，2024年全国可再生能源发电装机创历史新高，占全球可再生能源新增装机六成以上，预 计今年全年风电光伏发电装机将再新增2.8亿千瓦。随着新能源占比越来越高，如何又好又快发展备受 业内外关注。 装机量实现大幅增长 新能源装机大幅增长，进一步巩固了其在电力装机中的重要地位。《报告》显示，2024年，风电累计装 机达5.2亿千瓦，光伏累计装机达8.9亿千瓦，全球最高海拔光伏项目、最大"渔光互补"项目投产；新型 储能发展集中式、大型化趋势显著。 技术创新是产业升级的重要驱动力。2024年，陆上风电最大下线单机容量提升至15兆瓦，海上风电最大 下线单机容量达26兆瓦。光伏晶硅电池转化效率显著提升，光热发电成本下降，储能技术加速迭代。 在加快新能源开发的同时，我国强化电力系统调节能力，保障电网安全。2024年国庆期间，全国首次分 布式新能源保安全促消纳市场化交易在浙江省嘉兴市尖山新区展开试点。据悉，通过研判提前锁定节假 日光伏资源，在区域负荷下降明显、光伏发生倒送时，按需调用中标资源，共计出清容量10兆瓦并全 ...

虚拟电厂和电力交易能成为新能源"救命稻草"吗？ 作者： 潘俊田 封图： 经观智创 "今年的SNEC展会，没人关注光伏组件和储能，都跑去看虚拟电厂了。"上海梦象科技有限公司总 经理助理张弋告诉经济观察报。6月11日，第十八届（2025）国际太阳能光伏和智慧能源&储能 及电池技术与装备（大会）暨展览会（SNEC）召开，这是光伏行业每年最大规模的展会。 在本届SNEC展会上，虚拟电厂和电力交易成为各家厂商推介的重点产品。张弋在展会前夕参加了 远景能源的虚拟电厂和电力交易推介会，天合光能也发布了虚拟电厂和电力交易产品。国能日新、 中曜达等电力相关企业以及正泰集团、阳光电源等光储相关企业，均在展会现场为虚拟电厂和电力 交易业务专门设置了展台。 每家厂商的PPT前几页基本一样，均认为："136号文"（《关于深化新能源上网电价市场化改革促 进新能源高质量发展的通知》）中规定的"2025年5月31日"时间节点之后，光伏电站发电将"全 面入市"，原有的固定电价收益模式会转变为市场化电价收益。在这一转变下，虚拟电厂和电力交 易业务能够更有效地提升客户收益。 这些业务的核心客户是"531新政"后尚处于迷茫状态的电站持有者们。 张弋 ...

Core Insights - The SNEC exhibition highlighted a shift in focus from photovoltaic components and energy storage to virtual power plants and electricity trading, indicating a significant trend in the renewable energy sector [2][3] - The implementation of the "Document No. 136" is expected to transform the revenue model for photovoltaic power stations from fixed pricing to market-based pricing, enhancing the profitability of virtual power plants and electricity trading services [2][4] Industry Trends - Virtual power plants and electricity trading have become key offerings at the SNEC exhibition, with major companies like Envision Energy and Trina Solar promoting these services [2][3] - The market for electricity trading services is viewed as a "blue ocean" opportunity, despite the current lack of comprehensive supporting regulations following the "Document No. 136" [4] Market Dynamics - Developers of photovoltaic power stations are expressing anxiety about transitioning to the electricity market, with concerns about profitability and market conditions [3] - The average price for photovoltaic electricity in Xinjiang has decreased by 0.56% year-on-year, raising concerns about potential losses for power station operators [3] Policy Impact - The "Document No. 136" mandates that renewable energy sources must fully enter the market by May 31, 2025, which is expected to increase competition and market dynamics [7] - Various provinces are implementing regulations that require a portion of electricity to enter the market, with some regions mandating up to 20% of electricity to be traded [7][8] Financial Opportunities - The potential market for electricity trading is substantial, with estimates suggesting that if all renewable energy installations enter the market, the annual tradable electricity could reach approximately 4 trillion kWh, creating a market space of around 600 billion yuan [8] - Companies are increasingly interested in virtual power plants as a means to enhance the asset yield of their photovoltaic projects, with some reporting significant increases in revenue through these services [12][13] Technological Advancements - The development of virtual power plants requires significant technological capabilities, including the ability to aggregate and control diverse photovoltaic installations [14][15] - Companies are focusing on improving their algorithms and data capabilities to enhance their competitiveness in electricity trading [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight increase in revenue for Q1 2025, but a decline in net profit, attributed to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation costs [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 3.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.93% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.021 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.44% - The decline in profit is linked to lower electricity prices and increased depreciation due to new projects [1][2]. Power Generation and Capacity - The company generated 9.905 billion kWh of electricity in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.26% - Wind power generation was 8.921 billion kWh, up 8.57% year-on-year, while solar power generation was 984 million kWh, up 15.98% year-on-year - As of the end of 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power was 14.4818 million kW and 4.3645 million kW, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 11.56% and 79.06% [1][2]. Market Conditions - The average wind speed at 10 meters nationwide in April 2025 was 0.98% higher than the same period over the past decade, contributing to a 16.68% increase in wind power generation for the month [2]. - The decline in revenue growth compared to power generation growth is attributed to lower electricity prices following the marketization of renewable energy [2]. Accounts Receivable and Valuation - Accounts receivable amounted to 23 billion yuan, approximately 1.54 times the company's current market value of 16.1 billion HKD - The receivables primarily consist of renewable energy subsidy payments, which have been a constraint on capital expenditure and dividends [3]. - The company has improved its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 0.09 yuan per share in 2024, representing 52% of the distributable profit [3]. Long-term Outlook - The company is viewed positively in the context of the wind power sector, which is expected to have higher investment value compared to solar power due to better operational efficiency and lower costs [3]. - The recent policy (Document No. 136) is seen as beneficial for existing assets, enhancing the long-term value of established wind power operators [3]. Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.32 billion, 2.46 billion, and 2.52 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 6.5, 6.1, and 5.9 [4].

营收绝对值下滑系火电剥离，风资源不佳拖累业绩。公司一季度营收绝对值下滑主要系剥离两家火电公 司，重述后营收实现正增长，其中风电、光伏分别实现营业收入73.68、7.15亿元，分别同比变 动-1.89%、+43.09%；利润下滑主要系一季度风况不佳。公司一季度发电量203 亿千瓦时，同比下降 4.42%，剔除火电影响后同比增长8.81%；其中风电电量增长4.37%，光伏电量增长55.65%。截至2025 年一季度，公司控股装机4115 万千瓦，其中风电装机3044 万千瓦，同比增长10%；光伏装机1070 万千 瓦，同比增长65%。风电光伏装机增速高于发电量增速，主要系部分大容量区域风资源同比下降。 根据公告，公司一季度风电利用小时数585 小时，同比下降55 小时。若按照2024 年底风电装机3041 万 千瓦，55 小时对应16.73 亿千瓦时（=3041*55/10^4），加回55 小时利用小时数后，公司一季度风电发 电量194.5 亿千瓦时，同比增长14.2%，超过装机增速，说明公司机组运行效率或有所提升。简单考虑 2025 年一季度风电电价（不含税）为风电营收除以风电发电量（暂不考虑厂用电率），对应电 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term value of wind power operators despite short-term performance drag due to market entry challenges [5][7] - The company has shown a revenue increase of 0.93% year-on-year in Q1 2025, but net profit decreased by 4.44% due to falling electricity prices and increased depreciation [7] - The report highlights the company's strong growth in power generation, with a 9.26% increase in total generation in Q1 2025, driven by new installations and favorable wind conditions [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 12,802 million RMB - 2024: 12,576 million RMB - 2025E: 13,987 million RMB (11.2% growth) - 2026E: 14,770 million RMB (5.6% growth) - 2027E: 15,480 million RMB (4.8% growth) [6][8] - Net profit projections are as follows: - 2023: 2,240 million RMB - 2024: 1,925 million RMB - 2025E: 2,317 million RMB (20.4% growth) - 2026E: 2,457 million RMB (6.1% growth) - 2027E: 2,522 million RMB (2.6% growth) [6][8] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.32 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.5 [6][8] Market Position and Outlook - The company has a total market capitalization of 16,147.62 million HKD and a circulating market capitalization of 5,552.38 million HKD [3] - The report indicates that the company’s receivables are approximately 1.54 times its current market value, reflecting strong recognition from state-owned insurance capital [7] - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term value of wind power operators, citing advantages over solar power in terms of output and operational cycles [7]

投资要点： 行情回顾： 5 月 12 日-5 月 16 日，环保、燃气和电力板块分别上涨 0.58%、0.54% 和 0.09%，水务板块分别下跌 0.43%，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.12%。 定 期 报 告 RE100 宣布无条件认可中国绿证，绿证国际化工作迈上新台阶：2025 年 5 月 12 日，绿证市场高质量发展政策宣介会在广东深圳召开。活动上，国际绿色电力消费倡议 组织（RE100）宣布无条件认可中国绿证，明确企业使用中国绿证不需再提供额外证明， 绿证国际化工作迈上新台阶。RE100 是国际上倡导绿色电力消费的非政府组织，在国际 绿色电力消费领域有重要影响力。2020 年，RE100 曾发布技术评估报告，提出企业若 使用中国绿证，需额外证明其代表对应电量的全部环境属性，并解决与其他碳凭证的重 复计算问题。我国绿证市场历经多年发展，多方发力，终于推动绿证与国际互认迎来关 键转折点。RE100 无条件认可中国绿证，将有效增强出口绿色竞争力，应对绿色贸易壁 垒，有利于绿色供应链企业发展。近年来，随着绿证制度加快完善，我国已构建起全范 围覆盖、全周期闭环、全过程透明、全环节高效的绿证制度体系。截至 ...

行 业 及 产 业 公用事业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 联系人 朱赫 (8621)23297818× zhuhe@swsresearch.com 2025 年 05 月 12 日 山东出台首个新能源入市细则 LNG 进 口中枢有望下移 看好 ——申万公用环保周报(25/05/06~25/05/09) 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 - ⚫ 电力：山东出台首个地方 136 号文细则（征求意见稿）。5 月 8 日，山东省发改委印发《山东省新 能源上网电价市场化改革实施方案（征求意见稿）》及配套《新能源机制电价竞价实施细则》。在 《方案》中明确提出，存量项目全电量参与市场化后，统 ...

光伏&储能：山东省发布新能源上网电价市场化方案及机制电价竞价细则（136 号文首份省级承接政策），发布时间早、 内容全面、细节友好；同时 5 月组件排产环比基本持平好于预期，有望共同促进市场对"抢装后"需求预期的修复。 欧洲逆变器市场或生变，关注潜在受益公司。 子行业周度核心观点： 风电：浙江深远海风机招标预审启动，年内开工可能性持续提升，国内海风景气度加速向上；英国海风招标改革初步 落地，相关措施或有望加速英国项目需求释放，建议关注英国 AR7 海风招标进展及国内相关受益标的。 电网：1）陇东-山东特高压直流投产，Q2 哈密-重庆、金上-湖北、宁夏-湖南三条特高压直流也有望密集投产，看好 25 年特高压相关公司业绩弹性持续兑现；2）25 年南网配网设备第一批框架招标金额达 54 亿元，同比维持高位，南 网近年重点投入五省区主网架优化和城乡配电网升级，高投资强度预计将持续带动配网设备、计量产品需求增长。 新能源车：本周理想召开第二次 AI TALK 并官宣 L 系列智能焕新版正式上市，我们对公司维持原有观点，智驾最终还 是要回落给产品。智驾在目前的市场中只是整车产品性价比的一部分，最终还是要评判产品的综合素质 ...

您好，感谢您对公司的关注！提升公司业绩是我们的必修课，加强与投资 者的沟通与交流，让投资者了解、理解和支持公司，也是我们需要不断完善的 工作，也希望得到您有效的意见和建议。谢谢！ 证券代码：300490 证券简称：华自科技 华自科技股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-001 | 投资者关系 | 业绩说明会 特定对象调研 分析师会议 媒体采访  | | | --- | --- | --- | | 活动类别 | 新闻发布会 路演活动 现场参观 | | | | （请文字说明其他活动内容） 其他 | | | 参与单位名 | 通过全景网"投资者关系互动平台"参与公司 2024 年年度业绩网上说明会的投 | | | 称及人员 | 资者 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 8 日 15：00-17：00 | 月 | | 地点 | 全景网"投资者关系互动平台" | | | 上市公司接 | 董事长：黄文宝 总经理：佘朋鲋 独立董事：凌志雄 | | | 待人员 | 董事会秘书：宋辉 财务总监：陈红飞 保荐代表人：房子龙 | | | | 1、黄董，说说全年规划，财务预算，订单预测，收入预测，利润 ...