证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 12 月 15 日 行业及产业 电力设备 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 相关研究 《数据中心及 AI 景气上行，电力设备需求持续 增长》2025-12-12 《动力和储能锂电需求增长，锂电材料价格价 格趋于稳定》2025-12-09 《11 月国内光伏组件产量环比下降，储能电芯 延续高景气态势》2025-12-08 《动力和储能锂电需求向好，锂电材料价格涨 跌互现》2025-12-02 《10 月国内光伏装机量环比上涨，储能电芯排 产延续增长态势》2025-12-02 朱攀 S0820525070001 021-32229888-25527 zhupan@ajzq.com 比增长，锂电材料价格趋于稳定 强于大市 投资要点： 排产：11 月份正极材料产量同比增长。2025 年 1-11 月，国内电池和磷酸铁锂正极材料产 量显著高于 2024 年同期。2025 年 11 月，国内电池产量 176.3GWh，同比增长 49.66%， 环比增长 3.34%；2025 年 11 月，国内磷酸铁锂正极材料产量 26.8 ...

Group 1: Energy Storage - The energy storage market is recovering, and the global trend remains positive, driven by the economic turning point in domestic energy storage and strong investment due to renewable energy marketization and capacity pricing [1][2] - The cumulative penetration rate of energy storage in China is still below 10%, with an expected increase in new installations to 300 GWh next year [2] - The largest overseas opportunity comes from data centers, which are generating significant storage demand, with leading companies already securing large orders [2] - Energy storage is projected to drive lithium battery demand growth exceeding 30% next year, presenting investment opportunities across materials, batteries, and integration [1][2] Group 2: Lithium Batteries - Energy storage represents the most elastic segment under non-linear growth, as the industry is currently experiencing supply shortages and profitability at the bottom [2] - Demand for lithium materials is expected to grow by over 25% in 2026, leading to price increases in materials, despite current market skepticism regarding demand and pricing [2] - The focus is on the upcoming peak production season, where supply-demand imbalances in materials and energy storage batteries are expected to drive prices higher [2] Group 3: Photovoltaics - The cost of silicon materials is expected to support prices strongly, with anticipated production cuts leading to rising average industry costs [3] - Key observations for the photovoltaic sector include the pricing situation in the component segment and the progress of silicon material capacity consolidation, with positive changes expected in November [3] - The sector's top recommendation is BC batteries, which could lead to a recovery in profitability for leading photovoltaic companies if progress in reducing internal competition is achieved [3] Group 4: Power Equipment - Recent developments include NVIDIA's release of an 800V HVDC white paper, indicating trends in the HVDC/SST industry, and increased interest in supporting equipment [3] - High-voltage equipment tenders are expected to revive, particularly in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with a notable increase in domestic transformer exports [3] - The power equipment sector remains a high-certainty area with ample orders on hand, and attention is drawn to high-voltage tenders and IDC supporting opportunities [3] Group 5: Hydrogen Energy - Hydrogen energy is positioned as a forward-looking industry in the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant potential for growth over the next decade [3] - The focus is on identifying which downstream hydrogen energy applications will develop commercial models first, serving as key investment signals for the sector [3] Group 6: Robotics - Elon Musk anticipates the release of the Optimus V3 mass production prototype in early 2026, with plans to establish a production line for 1 million units by the end of 2026 [4] - The focus is on leading companies in the supply chain and the expected significant growth in shipments from domestic players [4]

Group 1 - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (6F) has accelerated upward, reaching a maximum of 73,000 yuan/ton after the holiday, an increase of over 8,500 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday [1] - The recent price surge is attributed to depleted industry inventory and a lack of effective supply increase, with some leading companies experiencing inventory exhaustion, potentially leading to a decline in shipments in Q4 2025 [1][2] - There is a notable demand for lithium batteries in energy storage and commercial vehicles, which is expected to support lithium battery demand growth next year [1][3] Group 2 - Many leading 6F companies have seen their monthly shipments exceed production in the first three quarters, leading to a significant reduction in inventory, with reports indicating that several representative companies have exhausted their stock [2] - Even with a potential 20% quarter-on-quarter decline in demand during the Q1 2026 off-season, 6F companies can maintain full production with appropriate inventory replenishment, suggesting that the current price increase may extend through the off-season [2] - The electric vehicle market, particularly in commercial vehicles, has shown significant growth, with domestic sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 481,000 units from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 59% [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the lithium battery industry, highlighting the expected growth in lithium battery demand despite pessimistic market assumptions. Even under adverse conditions, a growth rate of over 16% year-on-year is anticipated for 2026, significantly exceeding market expectations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Demand Projections**: - Lithium battery demand is projected to grow by over 16% year-on-year in 2026, with a potential increase to 21% if U.S. energy storage grows by 20% [1][3]. - The pessimistic outlook for 2026 is influenced by factors such as reduced U.S. IRA subsidies and potential increases in electric vehicle purchase taxes in China [2]. - **Investment Strategy**: - Key investment areas include battery and lithium carbonate segments, with a focus on leading companies in these sectors. Recommended companies include Yiwei, Keda Li, and material companies like Shangtai and leading lithium iron phosphate firms [1][4]. - The overall market capitalization of the lithium battery sector does not fully reflect performance expectations, indicating potential undervaluation in battery, structural components, and ternary cathode segments [5]. - **Chinese Passenger Vehicle Market**: - The primary driver for growth in the Chinese passenger vehicle market in 2026 is supply-side reform, with new model launches expected to contribute at least 800,000 units to sales [6]. - **Global Electric Vehicle Market**: - The global electric vehicle market is expected to maintain growth, particularly in Europe, where a 20% increase is projected for 2025, despite a conservative outlook for the U.S. market [7][8]. - **Impact of IRA Legislation**: - The IRA legislation presents both challenges and opportunities for Chinese battery companies, particularly in the energy storage segment [9]. Additional Important Insights - **Solid-State Battery Development**: - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing accelerated industrialization, with significant advancements expected in the coming years. The introduction of semi-solid batteries has exceeded market expectations [11][12]. - The solid-state battery supply chain is evolving, with a focus on lithium sulfide as a core material and advancements in production techniques expected to enhance efficiency [13][14]. - **Market Potential**: - By 2030, the global lithium demand is projected to reach approximately 4 terawatt-hours, with solid-state batteries expected to account for about 5% of this demand [16]. - **Equipment Market Growth**: - The market for lithium battery equipment, including dry electrode technology, is expected to grow significantly, with a projected increase from 1.3 billion yuan in 2026 to 53.3 billion yuan by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of over 150% [17]. - **Recommended Companies**: - In the solid-state battery equipment sector, companies with strong customer integration and core equipment capabilities, such as Honggong and Nacore, are recommended for investment [18]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the lithium battery industry's growth prospects, investment strategies, and technological advancements.