有目共睹的是，随着补贴缩水，2026年车市开年首月没有炸出一份符合预期的成绩单。 洗牌之下，1月SUV车型排行榜仍有值得玩味的现象：小米YU7夺冠，博越L强势空降，一堆神车排名暴跌，换来的是油车集体回春... 新能源补贴逐渐退坡后，最重要的SUV市场将何去何从？ 新旧交替 2026年1月是个特殊的月份，补贴退坡正式落地，乱局让旧的"神车"落幕，迎来新的"神车"接替。 小米YU7以37869辆的成绩夺得1月SUV排行榜的榜首，更是无定语销量第一，堪称"传奇耐黑王"，网上越黑，消费者越买。 博越L以34176辆的月销量紧随其后，去年仍在前十以外的博越L，今年空降第二。 其原因很可能是吉利在2025年已经超额完成了全年销量目标，为了让2026年开年就有一个漂亮的"开门红"，有计划地将部分12月的订单和交付量延迟到了 1月，排在第四的星越L也有着相似的命运。 问界M7以26454辆排到了第三，问界的品牌力、华为的智能方案、合理的定位和价格让M7的销量抵御住了冲击。 这样看跻身前十的油车好像多了，去年12月油车还只有卡罗拉锐放、途观L、锋兰达三台，今年却又多了三台，传统油车纷纷回春，坐稳六强。 整体来看，补贴退坡首月， ...

近年来，方盒子SUV已从单一越野属性，向城市通勤、家庭出行、户外轻越野等多场景延伸，动力形式覆盖燃油、增程与纯电，价格区间下探至主流消 费带。随着更多品牌入局，该品类在设计、智能、能耗与实用性上持续迭代，为消费者提供更丰富的个性化选择。以下便梳理7款当前市场关注度较高的方 盒子SUV，覆盖不同动力形式与价位段，以供参考。 方程豹钛7 指导价格：17.98万元起 方程豹钛7作为一款专业个性化硬派SUV， 以方正硬朗的外观、混动动力架构与智能四驱系统为亮点。造型上，该车采用星际方舟设计语言，以硬朗的 方盒子车身为基底，融合新能源科技感与硬派越野气质。 内饰部分以方圆融合为设计核心，兼顾硬派车型的规整感与家用座舱的温馨舒适，同时叠加丰富的智能与实用配置。辅助驾驶方面，全系车型搭载"天 神之眼"辅助驾驶系统，兼顾日常通勤与户外出行需求。顶配车型不仅搭载天神之眼B -辅助驾驶激光版（DiPilot300），还可以选装灵鸢比亚迪智能车载无 人机系统。 内饰设计上，该车将越野硬核属性融入日常座舱，兼具装饰性与实用性。在智能体验方面，哈弗大狗2026款配备了长城汽车新一代Coffee OS 3智能座舱 系统，拥有16G内存和 ...

Group 1 - NIO achieved a record high of 146,649 battery swaps on February 15, 2023, and has built over 8,600 charging and swapping stations nationwide, with more than 3,700 dedicated battery swap stations [2] - BYD's new mid-size SUV, the Song Ultra EV, is expected to be priced around 180,000 yuan and has completed the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's approval process [2] - The Fangcheng Leopard Ti7 has launched a new OTA upgrade featuring over twenty new and optimized functions, powered by an advanced AI model, with a price range of 179,800 to 219,800 yuan [2]

Core Insights - The era of domestic "boxy" SUVs in China has arrived, with significant market shifts favoring local brands over foreign luxury brands [1][12][19] - By 2025, the total sales of boxy SUVs in China are projected to exceed 1 million units, with domestic brands capturing over 90% of the market share [1][19] - Key players in this market include Great Wall, BYD, and Chery, which together account for 75% of the domestic boxy SUV sales [1][3] Market Dynamics - The shift in the boxy SUV market is attributed to changing consumer preferences towards outdoor activities and versatile vehicle performance, moving beyond traditional family use [4][12] - Great Wall has maintained its leading position with a projected sales volume of 452,000 units in 2025, representing over 30% of the domestic market [5][7] - BYD has emerged as a strong competitor, achieving sales of 235,000 units, leveraging its expertise in new energy technology [8][9] Competitive Landscape - Great Wall's strategy includes a diverse product range across various price segments (100,000 to 350,000 RMB) and multiple powertrain options, appealing to a broad consumer base [7][16] - BYD's success is driven by its "new energy + rugged" approach, with the Fangchengbao series, particularly the Titanium 7 model, achieving significant sales [9][19] - Chery focuses on high cost-performance vehicles, with sales of 397,000 units in 2025, targeting the mainstream consumer market [10][11] Emerging Players - Other brands like Beijing Off-road and Baojun are also making strides in the boxy SUV market, contributing to a vibrant competitive environment [11][19] - The overall market is characterized by a "three-legged" structure with multiple brands competing, providing consumers with a wider range of choices [11][19] Historical Context - The dominance of foreign brands in the boxy SUV segment has been challenged, as domestic brands have successfully integrated advanced technologies and consumer insights into their offerings [12][13][19] - The transition from foreign brand dominance to domestic leadership marks a significant evolution in the Chinese automotive industry, showcasing the capabilities of local manufacturers [19]

Event Overview - In January, the company reported wholesale sales of 210,000 new energy vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 30.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.0%. The wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 205,000 units, down 30.7% year-on-year and 50.5% month-on-month. The sales by brand included 178,000 for Dynasty Ocean, 21,581 for Tengshi, 6,002 for Fangchengbao, and 413 for Yangwang [2]. Sales Performance - The significant month-on-month decline in January's wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles was noted, with a total of 205,000 units sold, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.5%. The sales of plug-in hybrid passenger vehicles were 122,000 units, down 28.5% year-on-year and 23.7% month-on-month, while pure electric passenger vehicle sales were 83,000 units, down 33.6% year-on-year and 56.3% month-on-month. The brand breakdown showed Dynasty Ocean with 178,000 units, and Tengshi/Yangwang/Fangchengbao with 2.1/0.04/0.6 thousand units respectively, totaling 28,000 units, which accounted for 13.3% of the total, indicating a rapid breakthrough in high-end market [3]. High-End Market Strategy - The sales momentum of the Fangchengbao Titanium 7 model continues, with cumulative sales exceeding 300,000 units as of January 2026, and the Titanium 7 alone reaching 100,000 units, ranking first in growth among new force brands. This model is a key growth driver for BYD's high-end strategy. Recent adjustments in the high-end brand management, particularly for the Tengshi brand, aim to strengthen brand system construction and overcome high-end market bottlenecks. BYD is entering a more systematic and refined phase of high-end development, focusing on technology leadership, brand building, and ecosystem construction to convert technological advantages into strong customer loyalty and solidify its position in the high-end market [4]. International Expansion - In January, the export sales of new energy vehicles reached 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% but a month-on-month decrease of 24.5%. The overall outlook indicates steady growth in international markets, driven by increasing demand in regions such as Turkey, Brazil, and Europe, as well as enhanced shipping capacity from self-owned roll-on/roll-off vessels. The company is increasing its investment in overseas markets, with the completion and production of the BYD passenger car factory in Brazil, and plans for factories in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are expected to boost growth in Europe and Southeast Asia and enhance profitability [5]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates revenue growth from 866.47 billion yuan in 2025 to 1,104.53 billion yuan in 2027, with net profit attributable to shareholders projected to rise from 37.25 billion yuan in 2025 to 58.59 billion yuan in 2027. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase from 4.09 yuan in 2025 to 6.43 yuan in 2027. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 21 in 2025 to 14 in 2027, indicating a favorable investment outlook [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Sales Performance - In January, BYD's wholesale sales of new energy vehicles totaled 210,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 30.1% and a month-on-month decrease of 50.0% [8]. - The report notes that the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles also saw significant declines, with respective year-on-year decreases of 28.5% and 33.6% [8]. - The high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has shown strong sales momentum, with cumulative sales surpassing 300,000 units, indicating a successful high-end strategy [8]. International Expansion - BYD's international sales have shown a positive trend, with January exports reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5% [8]. - The company is expanding its overseas manufacturing capabilities, with new factories in Brazil and plans for additional facilities in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia, which are expected to enhance profitability [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for BYD (002594.SZ) with a current price of 87.05 CNY per share [4]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see revenue growth driven by high-end product offerings and international expansion, with projected revenues of 777.1 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 1,104.5 billion CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12.6% [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 40.3 billion CNY in 2024 to 58.6 billion CNY in 2027, with a notable increase of 34.0% in 2024, followed by a decrease of 7.5% in 2025, and then a recovery with growth rates of 27.4% and 23.4% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [3][20]. - The report highlights a significant decline in January's sales figures, with wholesale sales of new energy vehicles dropping by 30.1% year-on-year and 50.0% month-on-month, indicating a challenging market environment [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the years 2024 to 2027 are as follows: - 2024: 777.1 billion CNY - 2025: 866.5 billion CNY - 2026: 981.3 billion CNY - 2027: 1,104.5 billion CNY - The expected growth rates for these years are 29.0%, 11.5%, 13.3%, and 12.6% respectively [3][20]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2024: 40.3 billion CNY - 2025: 37.2 billion CNY - 2026: 47.5 billion CNY - 2027: 58.6 billion CNY - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 4.42 CNY in 2024 to 6.43 CNY in 2027 [3][20]. Market Performance - The report notes that BYD's high-end brand, Fangchengbao, has seen significant sales growth, with the Ti 7 model alone achieving sales of 100,000 units, marking it as a key growth driver for the company's high-end strategy [8]. - International sales are also on the rise, with January exports of new energy vehicles reaching 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.5%, despite a month-on-month decline of 24.5% [8]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on enhancing its high-end brand positioning and expanding its international footprint, with new factories being established in Brazil and plans for further expansion in Uzbekistan, Hungary, Turkey, and Indonesia [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological advancement and brand loyalty in solidifying BYD's position in the high-end market [8].

Core Viewpoint - BYD's January 2026 wholesale sales of passenger vehicles decreased significantly, with a total of 206,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 30.7% and a month-on-month decline of 50.5% [1] Group 1: Overseas Sales Performance - The company achieved impressive overseas sales of 100,000 units in January, marking a year-on-year increase of 43.3% and a month-on-month increase of 24.9%, driven by the launch of new models in various international markets [2] - The company plans to continue expanding its product offerings overseas in 2026, with a focus on increasing brand recognition and sales volume, supported by the establishment of local factories and a significant increase in sales points in Europe [2] - High-end models are being introduced to international markets, which is expected to enhance profitability due to scale effects and local production [2] Group 2: Domestic Sales Performance - Domestic wholesale sales, excluding overseas sales, totaled 106,000 units in January, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 53.5% and a month-on-month decline of 62.5%, attributed to weak industry demand and inventory reduction efforts [2] - The company anticipates a recovery in domestic demand as subsidies are implemented and consumer purchasing sentiment improves, with several new models set to launch in 2026 [2] - The company is enhancing product capabilities, with new long-range versions of existing models released in January, aiming to significantly improve product competitiveness [2] Group 3: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company's overseas growth is expected to continue, contributing positively to performance, while domestic sales are projected to recover [3] - The company forecasts net profits of 34.6 billion, 43.1 billion, and 52.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with current stock price corresponding to PE ratios of 26, 21, and 17 times [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its operational outlook and expected contributions from high-end new vehicle launches [3]

Core Insights - BYD has transformed advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) from an optional feature to a must-have for consumers, achieving a cumulative ownership of over 2.56 million vehicles by December 2025, leading the Chinese automotive industry in this segment [1][3]. Group 1: Data and Technology - The success of BYD's ADAS is supported by a robust data foundation, with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan" system generating over 160 million kilometers of driving data daily, which facilitates continuous system evolution and widespread adoption [4]. - The activation rates for the system are impressive, with 94.13% for general ADAS features and 85.97% for intelligent parking, indicating strong user trust and reliance on the technology [4]. - Frequent over-the-air (OTA) updates planned for 2025 will enhance features ranging from active safety to cabin experience, ensuring that the technology remains current and user-friendly [4]. Group 2: Safety and User Assurance - Safety is a core principle of BYD's intelligent driving technology, evidenced by 9.33 million instances of Automatic Emergency Braking (AEB) activation throughout the year, showcasing the system's proactive safety capabilities [4]. - BYD has made a notable commitment to cover all safety and loss scenarios related to parking assistance, eliminating the need for insurance claims and providing unlimited compensation, which reflects the company's confidence in its technology [4]. Group 3: Market Performance - The popularity of models equipped with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan B" version, such as the Fangcheng Leopard Titanium 7 and Tengshi N8L, has led to significant sales, with December alone seeing 191,041 units sold across various models [5]. - The sales breakdown includes 47,576 units from Fangcheng Leopard, 13,621 from Tengshi, 903 from Yangwang, and a remarkable 128,941 units from the Dynasty and Ocean series, indicating strong market recognition of the technology [5]. Group 4: Consumer Focus - BYD emphasizes user needs by promoting ADAS from being a luxury feature to a widely accessible option, aiming to make intelligent driving a standard expectation for all consumers [7]. - The company's approach not only leads the direction of automotive intelligence in China but also ensures that every user can benefit from the safety and convenience brought by technology [7].

Core Insights - The report from the third-party automotive quality complaint platform Chezhizhong indicates a significant decrease in quality complaints for domestic SUVs in Q4 2025, with a total of 11,984 complaints received, reflecting a quality complaint-to-sales ratio of 24.8 per ten thousand units, a notable improvement from Q3 [1][4]. Group 1: Quality Performance - The average quality complaint-to-sales ratio for domestic SUVs in Q4 2025 is 24.8 per ten thousand units, which shows a substantial recovery in overall quality performance compared to Q3 [1][4]. - Among the 358 models analyzed, 71 models performed better than the average complaint ratio of 24.8 per ten thousand units [1][4]. Group 2: Top Performing Models - The top-performing SUV in terms of quality is the Xiaomi YU7, with a complaint ratio of 0.9 per ten thousand units [1][4]. - The second and third positions are held by the Zeekr 9X and the Shangjie H5, with complaint ratios of 1.4 and 1.7 per ten thousand units, respectively [1][4]. - Other notable models in the top eight include the Toyota Platinum 3X, Changan X5 Plus, NIO ES8, Hongqi HS3 PHEV, and the Fangcheng Bao Titanium, with complaint ratios ranging from 2.0 to 3.0 per ten thousand units [1][4].