【周末热点事件，如何影响有色金属板块走势？】 1、美联储12月降息概率跌破50% 上一交易日（11月14日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）获资金净申购1.5亿份，即 单日吸金1.39亿元，反映资金提前进场，埋伏有色板块后市反弹行情！ | | 有色龙头ETF 159876 | 米 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1 . . + | | 实时申购随回信息 | 申购 | 随回 | | 笔数 | 161 | 1 | | 全额 | 0 | 0 | | 份额 | 1.52亿 | 60万 | 【资金为何积极抢筹有色金属板块？】 1、业绩端，2025年三季报显示，有色龙头ETF60只成份股中，56家上市公司实现盈利，44家归母净利 同比正增长，其中，楚江新材归母净利同比暴增20倍，国城矿业等10家上市公司归母净利三位数大增， 业绩表现亮眼。 2、产业端，本轮有色资源品牛市被定义为"新质生产力牛市"，区别于2006年依赖地产基建的行情，本 轮需求核心驱动力是新能源、AI、军工航天等新兴领域，同时供给侧受扰动，供需矛盾加剧，推升有 色金属价格，稀缺性和战略价值进一步凸显。 3、政策端 ...

今日（11月13日）有色金属板块获主力资金净流入超146亿元，板块吸金额高居31个申万一级行业第 二，热门ETF方面，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）早盘冲高，场内涨幅盘中上探 4.12%，现涨4.01%，站稳全部均线！ 成份股方面，雅化集团、国城矿业、永兴材料、盛新锂能4股涨停！兴业银锡、中矿资源、华锡有色等 个股大幅跟涨！权重股方面，紫金矿业涨超4%，洛阳钼业涨逾5%，北方稀土涨超3%。 消息面上，美国众议院即将结束历史性的政府停摆，此举可能会重启经济数据发布，并增强美联储12月 降息的预期。 展望后市，东方证券表示，在全球货币宽松周期、资源战略地位提升及新旧产业转型共振下，有色金属 进入供需紧平衡驱动的新周期，走势相对独立，关注黄金、锂/稀/钨土等小金属和铜铝。 【未来产业"金属心脏"，现代工业"黄金血液"】 美联储降息周期，如何推升有色金属价格？业内人士指出，可以从三方面理解：①美联储降息，货币贬 值，投资者倾向持有更保值的实物资产；②国际市场有色金属以美元计价，美联储降息带动美元贬值， 美元计价的金属相对更便宜，进一步增加全球买盘；③降息代表利率下降，企业借钱成本降低，利于企 业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) has shown a decline, with a drop of nearly 4% at one point, but the medium-term upward trend remains intact despite short-term moving averages being breached [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) experienced a decline of 3.86%, falling below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, while the 60-day and 120-day moving averages continue to diverge upwards, indicating that the medium-term upward trend is not yet broken [1] - As of the report, the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) saw a net subscription of 4.8 million units, suggesting that investors are actively positioning themselves during the market pullback [1] - The latest scale of the non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) reached 513 million yuan, making it the largest among three similar products tracking the same index [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - A total of 332 stocks have been held simultaneously by both public and private funds for three consecutive quarters, indicating a strong interest in the non-ferrous metal sector [3] - The rapid development of emerging technologies like AI is becoming a significant driver for the demand for non-ferrous metals such as copper, supported by favorable factors like expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and expanding downstream demand from sectors like new energy vehicles and solar energy [3] - The non-ferrous metal sector is viewed as a popular investment area for both public and private funds, with high holdings in leading companies like Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Xinyi Silver [3] Group 3: Sector Composition and Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector ETF (159876) and its linked funds passively track the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index, with weightings for copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium at 27.7%, 14.4%, 13.2%, 10.2%, and 9.1% respectively, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in a single metal [5] - A comprehensive approach to investing in the non-ferrous metal sector is suggested to better capture the overall beta performance of the sector [5]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen significant inflows, with over 15.8 billion in main funds entering the market, ranking second among 31 primary industries in the Shenwan classification [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector's leading ETF (159876) experienced a substantial increase of 4.58% in price, with a total trading volume of 64.88 million, reflecting a 35% increase in trading activity [1]. - Among the 60 constituent stocks of the non-ferrous metal ETF, 52 stocks rose over 2%, and 25 stocks increased by more than 5%. Notably, Nanshan Aluminum and Zhongfu Industrial hit the daily limit, while Jiangxi Copper and Western Superconducting surged over 9% [1][3]. - Key stocks such as China Aluminum, Northern Rare Earth, and Zijin Mining also showed significant gains, with increases of over 7%, 4%, and 3% respectively [1]. Group 2: Positive Factors - Macroeconomic factors are favorable, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve due to weak employment data [3]. - The industry is experiencing price increases across various segments, with LME copper reaching an all-time high and LME aluminum hitting a three-year peak. Additionally, the price of tungsten has doubled this year, and lithium hexafluorophosphate has seen a nearly 60% increase in just over two weeks [3]. - The earnings reports from the non-ferrous metal sector are promising, with 40 out of 44 companies reporting profits, and 31 companies showing year-on-year growth in net profit. Notably, Chuangjiang New Material reported a 20-fold increase in net profit [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal sector is viewed as a key player in the current commodity bull market, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand for strategic metal resources amid de-globalization trends [3]. - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach, tracking the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes significant weights in copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [4]. - As of October 28, the ETF had a total scale of 544 million, making it the largest among three similar products [6].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the non-ferrous metal sector is strong, with the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) showing significant gains and attracting substantial investment, indicating positive market sentiment and potential growth opportunities in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 2.17%, currently up by 1.95%, with a single-day capital inflow of 11.67 million yuan on the previous day [1]. - As of October 28, the latest scale of the ETF reached 544 million yuan, making it the largest among three products tracking the same index [1]. Group 2: Leading Stocks - Western Superconducting Technologies Co., Ltd. led the gains with over a 10% increase, reaching a new high, driven by both policy support and rising demand in superconducting materials [3]. - Other notable stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten Co., Ltd., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, Huayu Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and China Aluminum also saw increases of over 4% [1]. Group 3: Market Trends - The tungsten market is experiencing a significant price increase, with major prices doubling within the year, driven by strategic resource value and growing demand, particularly from the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The lithium battery supply chain is also seeing production increases, with lithium hexafluorophosphate prices rising nearly 60% in just over two weeks, indicating a strong demand-supply resonance [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - With the upcoming FOMC meeting, market expectations suggest a continuation of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a weaker dollar and an upward shift in industrial metal prices [4]. - The metal industry is expected to enter a phase of "active replenishment + rigid supply resonance" by 2025, with significant profit elasticity for copper and aluminum [4]. Group 5: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach, covering various metals such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium, which helps mitigate risks compared to investing in a single metal [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876), which saw an intraday increase of 2.96% and a current rise of 2.16%, with a trading volume exceeding 520 million yuan, indicating active trading [1] - Technical analysis indicates that the recovery of the 10-day moving average suggests that short-term bullish forces are strong enough to push the stock price above the "short-term cost line," indicating an advantage for bulls in short-term trading [1] - Key constituent stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten Industry and Jiangxi Copper experienced significant gains, with Xiamen Tungsten hitting the daily limit, and others like Huayu Mining and Western Superconducting rising over 6% [1] Group 2 - The U.S. September CPI data, which came in lower than expected at a year-on-year growth of 3.0% and a core CPI month-on-month increase of 0.2%, provides solid support for the Federal Reserve to consider further interest rate cuts [3] - The impact of potential Fed rate cuts on non-ferrous metal prices is explained through three key points: 1) Rate cuts equate to monetary easing, leading investors to prefer tangible assets; 2) Most non-ferrous metals are priced in USD, and a weaker dollar makes these metals cheaper, boosting global demand; 3) Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for companies, increasing demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3] - The outlook for the non-ferrous metal sector is optimistic, driven by long-term capital expenditure cycles and increasing global manufacturing investment, alongside a recovery in domestic macroeconomic conditions, positioning non-ferrous metals as a core component of the current commodity bull market [3] Group 3 - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide a diversified investment approach by passively tracking the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index, which includes significant weights in copper (27.6%), gold (14.5%), aluminum (13.1%), rare earths (10.4%), and lithium (8.4%), thus helping to mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [5]

今日（10月27日）有色金属板块涨幅居前，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内涨幅 一度上探2.96%，现涨2.28%，实时成交额超2800万元，成交额有望环比放量，盘中收复10日均线，冲 击日线5连阳，日k线或已走出"上行台阶"。 技术分析层面来看，10日均线反映短期（约两周）市场平均成本。股价收复该均线，说明短期多头力量 足以推动股价站上"短期成本线"，多头在短期博弈中占据优势。若收复10日均线时伴随放量，则信号可 靠性更强，或反映资金主动入场推动。 成份股方面，厦门钨业涨停，西部超导、北方稀土、江西铜业涨逾5%，钒钛股份、宝武镁业、楚江新 材等个股跟涨。 资金面上，截至发稿，有色金属板块获主力资金净流入超55亿元，高居31个申万一级行业第二。北方稀 土获主力资金净流入超9亿元，跻身A股吸金榜TOP5。 【未来产业"金属心脏"，现代工业"黄金血液"】 不同的有色金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点并不一致，分化在所难免，如果看好有色金属板块，一个比较 轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好地把握整个板块的贝塔行情。揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF （159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy announcement from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments is expected to positively impact the non-ferrous metals industry, with projected annual growth rates for value-added and production of key metals [3][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen a strong bullish trend this year, driven by multiple favorable factors, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which have increased metal prices [3][4]. - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) experienced a price increase of over 1.6% during the day, with a net subscription of 3 million units, indicating strong market interest [1][3]. Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to stimulate supply-side reforms, similar to the effects seen during the 2015 supply-side reform, potentially leading to a recovery in the non-ferrous metals sector [4]. - Major infrastructure projects, such as the Yaxi Hydropower Project, are anticipated to create significant demand for non-ferrous metals [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-side constraints, including stricter regulations on rare earth mining and smelting, are expected to enhance the commodity attributes of non-ferrous metals, leading to a tighter supply-demand balance [4]. - Rapid growth in green industries, such as renewable energy and electric vehicles, is projected to significantly increase the demand for metals like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the combination of monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will support rising metal prices and improve market expectations [8].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experiencing a significant jump, reflecting strong performance since its low point in April 2023, outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [1][3] Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw a peak intraday increase of 2.7% and is currently up 1.8% [1] - Since the low on April 8, 2023, the ETF has risen by 55.21%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite (24.45%) and CSI 300 (27.21%) [1] - The top six constituents of the CSI Non-Ferrous Metal Index are all copper industry leaders, with notable gains from Northern Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum [1][3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - A landslide at the Grasberg copper mine, the world's second-largest, has halted production, with Freeport estimating a 35% drop in copper and gold output for 2026 and a return to pre-accident production levels not expected until 2027 [3] - Short-term factors such as tariff suspensions and supply disruptions are expected to support copper prices, while long-term demand from home appliance subsidies and increased investment in power grids may further elevate price levels [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Huabao Fund suggests increasing allocation to the non-ferrous sector, as the economic recovery's impact on cyclical goods has yet to be fully realized [3] - CITIC Construction anticipates that domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors will enhance profitability across the supply chain, benefiting metal prices [3] Group 4: Sector Composition - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, with copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, and lithium comprising 25.3%, 14.2%, 13.8%, 13.6%, and 7.6% of the index, respectively [5]

今日（9月24日）揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中涨逾1.5%，现涨 1.3%，拉长时间来看，该ETF自本轮低点（4月8日）以来，累计上涨52.82%，大幅跑赢沪指 （23.42%）、沪深300（25.92%）等主要宽基指数。 成份股方面，华钰矿业涨超7%，海亮股份、有研新材涨逾6%，华钰钴业、西藏矿业等个股跟涨。 数据来源：中证指数公司、沪深交易所等，统计区间： 2025.4.8-2025.9.23 。注：中证有色金属指数近 5 个完整年度的涨跌幅为： 2020 年， 35.84% ； 2021 年， 35.89% ； 2022 年， -19.22% ； 2023 年， -10.43% ； 2024 年， 2.96% 。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表 现。 有色金属本轮走出了一轮强劲的多头行情，其背后是多重利好因素的共同推动： 1、美联储降息推高有色金属价格：①美联储降息相当于放水，货币贬值，投资者倾向持有更保值的实 物资产；②大多数有色金属，在国际市场上是以美元计价，美联储降息带动美元贬值，美元计价的金属 相对更便宜，进一步增加全球 ...