今日（12月18日）市场盘整，A股三大指数悉数飘绿，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）逆市活跃，场内涨幅盘中摸高0.77%，现涨0.44%， 当前站在所有均线上方，技术面上行动能较强！ | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 更多 | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 圆线 丁具 Q (2) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.923 | 09:46 价 0.919 涨跌 0.004(0.44%) 均价 0.919 成交量 4042 IOPV 0.9201 | 2025/12/18 | 0 -0 | 2 | | | | | | 9:46:54 交易中 | | 0.921 | | 0.6696 | 净值走势 | રજ | | | | | 委比 | 38.32% 委差 | | 0.920 | | 0.50% | 深 | 0.923 | | | | | | 0.922 | | 0.918 | | 0.33% | | 0.921 | | | | | | 0.920 | | 0.917 | | 0.17% | 題 聖 史 是 是 要 | ...

中信建投证券认为，只要美联储仍处于降息通道（未来仍有进一步降息预期），有色金属价格仍有上涨 动力。东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较 大的价格弹性。本轮降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 成份股方面，国城矿业涨停，盛新锂能涨逾7%，中矿资源、雅化集团携手涨超5%，天齐锂业、中孚实 业、永兴材料、兴业银锡等个股大幅跟涨。 消息面上，美国就业市场疲弱，美国11月新增非农就业6.4万人，失业率意外升至4.6%为四年来新高， 10月就业减少10.5万人逊于预期。报告发布后，现货黄金直线拉升，日内涨0.43%。分析师称，就业数 据将显示劳动力市场"逐步降温"。交易员仍押注美联储在2026年会降息两次。 数据显示，截至12月16日，有色龙头ETF（159876）最新规模8.4亿元，在全市场3只跟踪同标的指数的 ETF产品中，是规模最大的ETF。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进 度、"反内卷"政策效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续。弱美元周期 图：有色龙头 ETF 标的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with the A-share indices showing a downward trend. However, there is significant capital inflow into the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating positive sentiment towards its future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has seen a price drop of 1.32% in the market, but it has attracted 203 million yuan in capital over the past 20 days, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [1][8]. - Leading stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper have shown positive performance, while companies like Western Superconducting and Chuangjiang New Material have experienced declines exceeding 4% [1][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Analysts attribute the active investment in the non-ferrous metals sector to China's ambition to transition from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing stronghold, with non-ferrous companies emerging as successful players in this landscape [3][4]. - In gold, China holds an 11% share of global gold production, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold forming a competitive industry structure [3][10]. - For copper, China's refined copper production is projected to reach 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 50% of global output, with a CR5 capacity concentration of 58% [3][10]. - In aluminum, China dominates the global market with 4.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, representing 57% of global supply, and the top seven Chinese companies account for 37% of global production [3][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing commodity investment enthusiasm [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for risk diversification and making them suitable for investment portfolios [5][11].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the performance of the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), which has seen a net inflow of 156 million yuan over the past five days, indicating strong investor confidence in the sector's future performance [1][8] - As of December 12, the Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has a total scale of 862 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1][8] - Key stocks within the ETF have shown significant gains, with Steel Research High-Tech leading with over 7% increase, followed by Huafeng Aluminum and Huaxi Nonferrous with gains exceeding 5% and 4% respectively [1][8] Group 2 - The non-ferrous metals sector has been a major investment theme in the A-share market this year, driven by increased allocations from public funds, social security funds, and foreign institutions [3][10] - Macro factors influencing this trend include a shift in the global monetary system, particularly the "de-dollarization" trend, which enhances the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals [3][10] - Supply-demand dynamics are also pivotal, with limited supply growth due to insufficient long-term capital expenditure and capacity constraints, while demand is bolstered by emerging industries such as renewable energy and artificial intelligence [3][10] Group 3 - Analysts express optimism for the non-ferrous metals sector, anticipating a continuation of the bull market, with various institutions projecting sustained investment interest in commodities [4][11] - The current pricing of non-ferrous metals is viewed as relatively healthy, with overall valuations remaining rational [4][11] - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market dynamics, with industrial metals influenced by economic cycles, precious metals more affected by global monetary conditions, and minor metals driven by technological innovations and policy adjustments [5][10] Group 4 - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [5][12] - This ETF strategy is recommended as a part of an investment portfolio to better capture the overall sector's beta performance [5][12]

| 有色龙头ETF | | 159876 | | --- | --- | --- | | (0) | +0.007 +0.77% | | | SZSE CNY 9:57:48 交易中 | / . + | | | 保护巡视 | 华宝中证有色金属ETF | | | 实时申购陵回信息 | 由胸 18 日 | | | 笔数 | 3 | | | 全额 | 0 0 | | | 份高质 | S 1200万 | | 成份股方面，西部矿业、锡业股份、驰宏锌锗、国城矿业、中孚实业携手涨超3%，山金国际、云铝股份、紫金矿业、 中国铝业等个股涨逾2%。 今日（12月12日）有色金属板块领涨两市，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）场内价格盘中涨超 1.5%，现涨0.77%，截至发稿，获资金实时净申购1200万份，此前已连续4日吸金1.4亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板 块后市表现，积极进场布局！ 第三，战略储备，大国博弈背景下，有色金属等资源就是底气。 有色金属的超级周期能有多长？业内人士指出，取决于三个条件：美元信用恢复情况、战略收储进度、"反内卷"政策 效果。从这三个条件来看，2026年有色金属超级周期大概率还会持续 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a pullback, but the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is showing resilience with a net inflow of funds, indicating positive sentiment towards the nonferrous metals sector [1][6]. Fund Performance - The Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) has seen a net subscription of 49.2 million units, reflecting strong investor interest [1][6]. - Over the past two days, the ETF has recorded a total net inflow of 54.3 million yuan, and in the last 20 days, it has attracted 243 million yuan [1][6]. - As of December 9, the ETF's total size reached 748 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1][6]. Stock Performance - Leading stocks within the ETF include Yunnan Zhenye, which rose over 6%, and Baiyin Nonferrous, which increased by more than 4% [1][6]. - Conversely, stocks like Bowei Alloys and Northern Rare Earths saw declines of over 3% and more than 1%, respectively, negatively impacting the index [1][6]. Market Outlook - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is expected to result in a 25 basis point rate cut, with a probability of 89.4%, which could support nonferrous metal prices [3][8]. - Analysts suggest that during a rate-cutting cycle, tight supply-demand dynamics in physical assets could lead to significant price elasticity, particularly for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][8]. - The outlook for 2026 anticipates increased demand for copper driven by power investments and for aluminum due to energy storage and substitution needs [3][8]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Nonferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metals [9].

Group 1 - The market is currently consolidating, with the non-ferrous metals sector leading the decline, as evidenced by the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) which saw a drop of over 2% [1] - Despite the market downturn, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) received a net subscription of 24 million units, indicating investor confidence in the future performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - As of December 8, the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) has a total scale of 739 million yuan, making it the largest ETF tracking the same index in the market [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is set to begin a monetary policy meeting, with an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, which could support the prices of non-ferrous metals [3] - International copper prices have reached new highs due to supply shortages and tariff concerns, with expectations for a tightening supply-demand balance in the copper market [3] - The current monetary easing cycle is expected to create significant price elasticity for physical assets like copper and aluminum, suggesting a potential super cycle for industrial metals [3] Group 3 - Different non-ferrous metals exhibit varying degrees of market conditions and drivers, suggesting a diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) could be beneficial [4] - The non-ferrous leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds provide comprehensive coverage of various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which helps in risk diversification [4]

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing strong performance, with the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Index rising by 2.58%, driven by significant gains in leading companies such as Jiangxi Copper and Silver Industry [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of December 1, the non-ferrous metal sector showed robust performance, with Jiangxi Copper leading the gains at 7.88%, followed by Silver Industry at 7.32%, and Xingye Silver at 7.18% [1]. - The popular ETF, Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876), saw an increase of 2.49%, with a trading volume reaching 34.44 million CNY [1][2]. Group 2: Future Outlook - China Galaxy Securities predicts that by 2025, macroeconomic expectations will improve due to the Geneva Agreement between China and the U.S., leading to a new upward cycle in the non-ferrous metal industry, with continued price increases and enhanced profitability for companies in this sector [1][3]. - The report highlights that the supply chain disruptions caused by tariffs and resource control policies will further support the price and performance of non-ferrous metals [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leaders ETF (159876) provides comprehensive coverage of various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, making it a suitable option for investors looking to diversify their portfolios and mitigate risks associated with investing in single metal sectors [4].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876), indicates strong investor confidence and potential for continued growth in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) saw a morning surge of 1.61% on November 27, reflecting positive market sentiment [1]. - Over the past 10 days, this ETF has attracted a total of 193 million yuan in investments, indicating strong buying interest [1]. - As of November 26, the ETF's latest scale reached 671 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index in the market [1]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve's recent Beige Book report highlighted a decline in consumer spending, which is a significant factor in the stagnation of the U.S. economy [3]. - There is an 85% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - JPMorgan has revised its outlook, now expecting the Fed to lower rates in December, contrary to its previous prediction of a delay until January [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts generally believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is poised to continue its bull market, with various institutions expressing optimism about the sector's future [4]. - Key focus areas include industrial metals like copper and aluminum, which are expected to benefit from supply constraints and recovering demand [4]. - The energy metals sector, particularly lithium and cobalt, is anticipated to thrive due to surging demand from energy storage and electric vehicle markets [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - For investors looking to capitalize on the non-ferrous metals sector, a diversified approach through the non-ferrous metals leading ETF (159876) and its associated funds is recommended [5]. - This ETF provides comprehensive coverage across various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, allowing for risk diversification [5].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing significant gains, with the leading non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) showing a rise of 1.88% and attracting substantial investment, indicating positive market sentiment towards the sector [1][4]. Investment Trends - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has accumulated 213 million yuan in the past 10 days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - As of November 24, the ETF's latest scale reached 676 million yuan, making it the largest among three ETFs tracking the same index [1]. Stock Performance - Key stocks in the sector, such as Huaxi Nonferrous and Western Gold, have seen significant price increases, with several stocks rising over 4% [3]. Market Outlook - Institutions are optimistic about the continuation of a bull market in the non-ferrous metals sector, with various firms highlighting potential growth in industrial metals like copper and aluminum, as well as energy metals such as lithium and cobalt [4]. - The focus is on three main themes: supply constraints and recovering demand for industrial metals, explosive demand for energy metals due to storage and battery needs, and strategic assets like gold and rare earths [4]. Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [5].