期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 24 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色节后偏强运行 核心观点 沪铜 春节后第一个交易日，铜价呈现冲高回落态势，主力期价一度站 上 10.2 万关口，沪铜持仓量日内持续上升。宏观层面，海外美伊局 势紧张，美国关税扰动，市场风险偏好较低；国内节后流动性恢复 明显，给予铜价支撑。产业层面，节后下游逐步开工，产业支撑或 持续上升。持续关注国内库存以及下游补库需求。 沪铝 春节后第一个交易日，铝价高开后震荡运行，主力期价在 2.36 万 上方震荡运行，沪铝持仓量持续上 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, the main contract price of Shanghai copper oscillated around the 100,000 mark, and the trading volume decreased slightly. Macroscopically, the US stock market declined overseas, and domestic liquidity was poor approaching the Spring Festival. Industrially, most downstream enterprises had taken holidays approaching the Spring Festival, resulting in dull trading [7]. - **沪铝**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai aluminum decreased in price with a reduction in positions, and the main contract price dropped back to the 23,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, domestic electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate stocks seasonally. Technically, the aluminum price tested the 23,000 mark three times in February, showing strong technical support [8]. - **沪镍**: On the last trading day before the Spring Festival, Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with a continuous decline in positions. The main contract price rebounded at the end of the session and regained the 135,000 mark. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas liquidity was poor, and the capital driving force was weak. Industrially, on February 10, the Indonesian government announced that the production target for nickel ore in 2026 was set between 260 and 270 million tons. The positive news on the supply side largely made the nickel price stronger than the non - ferrous metal sector in the short term. However, the non - ferrous metal sector declined last night driven by precious metals, and the nickel price followed suit. In the short term, with macro - level negative factors and industry - level positive factors, the nickel price will oscillate [9]. 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: From February 6th to February 12th, the raw material inventory of SMM copper cable enterprises decreased by 3.37% week - on - week as the pre - festival stocking was basically completed and upstream suppliers gradually took holidays. On the finished product side, enterprises moderately stocked up for post - festival demand, but the stocking mentality was cautious due to the uncertainty of the copper price after the Spring Festival, and there was no large - scale inventory build - up. The operating rate of the domestic refined copper rod industry decreased by 12.43 percentage points week - on - week, and SMM expected it to drop by 43.56 percentage points to 13.08% week - on - week due to enterprises taking holidays next week [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE warrant inventory, and month - to - month spread of Shanghai copper [12][13][17]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - to - month spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][32]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel month - to - month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel price trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][38][40].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated within a narrow range, with a slight decline in open interest. Macroscopically, due to the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Industrially, the copper inventory in major regions continued to rise. With the Spring Festival approaching, short - term capital drive was weak [7]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated strongly, with a continuous decline in open interest. Macroscopically, affected by the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Domestically, with the Spring Festival approaching, investors had a strong willingness to close positions. Industrially, domestic electrolytic aluminum continued seasonal inventory accumulation. Technically, recently, Shanghai aluminum continued to decline in open interest and fluctuate, with weak capital drive [8]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly, with the main contract price fluctuating around the 140,000 - yuan mark and falling below 140,000 at the end of the session. Macroscopically, affected by the better - than - expected US non - farm payroll data last night, the US dollar index rebounded in the short term, which is negative for non - ferrous metals. Industrially, on February 10, the Indonesian official revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260 - 270 million tons, in line with previous market expectations, which boosted market sentiment. The positive news on the supply side made the nickel price stronger than the non - ferrous metals sector in the short term. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On February 12, SMM reported that the spot premium was expected to face downward pressure. With the Spring Festival approaching, market participation continued to decline. Most suppliers and downstream enterprises had gradually entered the holiday state, and the overall trading atmosphere was light. On the supply side, the priced - in imported copper locked during the opening of the import window was continuously arriving at the port, and the inventory in Shanghai increased significantly. On the demand side, due to the approaching festival, downstream enterprises had generally taken holidays, and the procurement demand continued to weaken. Overall, the market would maintain light trading, and it was expected that the spot discount would continue to expand tomorrow [11]. - **Nickel**: On February 12, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,200 - 150,500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 145,350 yuan/ton, up 2,750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 8,750 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton. According to Bloomberg Technoz, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) released the 2026 nickel ore RKAB quota on February 10. Tri Winarno, the director - general of Mineral and Coal, confirmed that the approved production this year was only 260 - 270 million tons [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper spot premium [13], Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory [14], LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15], global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX) [17], and SHFE warrant inventory [18]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis [24], aluminum monthly spread [30], electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26], electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32], and aluminum rod inventory [34]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis [36], nickel monthly spread [42], LME inventory [38], and nickel ore port inventory [46].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 11 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 镍价走强 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升。宏观层面，美元指数日内 持续走弱，有色板块偏强运行。产业层面，SMM 报道，临近春节假 期，市场参与度持续下降，多数持货商及下游企业已逐步进入放假 状态，日内整体交投氛围较为清淡。临近春节假期，短期资金驱动 较弱。 沪铝 今日铝价震荡上行。宏观层面，美元指数日内持续走弱，有色板 块偏强运行。产业层面，临近春节，现货市场交投不活跃。技术 上，铝价振幅明显收窄，短期驱动 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The main futures price of Shanghai copper fluctuated around 102,000 yuan. The open interest of Shanghai copper changed little. The weakening US dollar index during the day was positive for copper prices. The social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, and downstream buyers were more willing to replenish inventory at low prices. The open interest of Shanghai copper has been declining recently, and short - term capital drive is weak approaching the Spring Festival holiday. Attention can be paid to the support at the 100,000 yuan mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose first and then fell, and the open interest of Shanghai aluminum continued to rise. There was a significant divergence in the intraday performance of non - ferrous metals. Domestically, electrolytic aluminum had a seasonal inventory build - up. Technically, after a sharp decline, aluminum prices fluctuated with a narrowing amplitude. Attention can be paid to the support at the early - February low [7]. - **Nickel**: The main futures price of Shanghai nickel opened higher and fluctuated around 135,000 yuan. Nickel prices were relatively strong. In the short - term, the driving force was not strong, and the port inventory of nickel ore was at a high level in the same period of previous years with seasonal destocking. In the long - term, the expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia led to a reversal of the supply - demand expectation. Technically, after a sharp decline, nickel prices fluctuated with a narrowing amplitude. Attention can be paid to the range of 130,000 - 140,000 yuan [8]. Summary of Each Section 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On February 9, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic copper was 341,200 tons, a decrease of 11,100 tons compared with February 5 [10]. - **Aluminum**: On February 9, the social inventory of Mysteel electrolytic aluminum was 875,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared with February 5 [11]. - **Nickel**: On February 9, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,900 - 145,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 139,450 yuan/ton, a rise of 3,650 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 9,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 9,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 400 - 400 yuan/ton [12]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The charts include copper spot premium and discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, and Shanghai copper monthly spread [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][38].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper market showed a pattern of first declining and then rising in the morning session, followed by narrow - range fluctuations around the 100,000 mark, with a decreasing position volume. The sharp decline of Shanghai silver in the morning led to a weakening of the non - ferrous metal market, but as silver rebounded, copper also rebounded. In the industrial aspect, when the copper price weakened in the morning, the downstream's willingness to purchase increased, and the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. Short - term focus should be on the support at the 100,000 mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market hit the bottom and rebounded in the morning, maintaining a volatile trend throughout the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. Similar to copper, the early decline of Shanghai silver affected the non - ferrous metal market, and it rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, downstream enterprises made rigid - demand restocking, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise on Thursday. Technically, the aluminum price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price plunged in the morning and rebounded during the day, with a continuous decrease in position volume. The early decline of Shanghai silver had a significant impact on the non - ferrous metal market, and nickel also rebounded as silver recovered. In the industrial aspect, there is currently no strong short - term driving force, but the long - term expectation of supply contraction in Indonesia has reversed the supply - demand outlook. Technically, the nickel price rebounded after approaching the low on Monday. Continuous attention should be paid to the support at that position [8]. 3. Content Summaries by Sections Industry Dynamics - Copper - This week, cable enterprises mainly made batch - by - batch rigid - demand purchases. The raw material inventory increased by 1.83% month - on - month, while the finished product inventory decreased by 2.05% month - on - month as orders increased. - The weekly starting rate of SMM copper cable enterprises was 60.15%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points month - on - month. At the beginning of the week, when the copper price hit the limit down, the overall pick - up volume and new orders in the industry increased, supporting stable production. The implementation of previously won State Grid orders and the growth of equipment cable orders were the main sources of orders. - Looking ahead to the next week, the decline in the copper price effectively stimulated downstream restocking. With the concentrated release of restocking demand on Friday, the spot price changed from a discount to a premium. The supply may increase in the short term due to the arrival of some locked - in price goods. However, as downstream enterprises gradually enter the holiday period, most leading enterprises have completed pre - holiday restocking, and the actual procurement demand is expected to gradually weaken [10]. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report presents multiple charts including copper spot premium/discount, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, and LME copper注销仓单比例, etc. These charts cover data from 2021 to 2026, providing a long - term perspective on the copper market [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts such as aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic and overseas social inventories, and aluminum rod inventory are provided. The data in the charts mainly cover the period from 2021 to 2026, showing the historical trends of the aluminum market [23][25][33]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME and SHFE inventories, and nickel ore port inventory. The data in these charts span from 2021 to 2026, helping to analyze the nickel market trends [35][37][43].

Copper - Copper prices experienced a pullback after a rise, with domestic refined copper maintaining a reduced import loss [3] - The US ISM services PMI for January was 53.8, matching December's level and the highest since October 2024, indicating better-than-expected performance, although the new orders index showed a slowdown [3] - US ADP added 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below the expected 45,000, suggesting weakening momentum in the labor market [3] - LME copper inventory increased by 2,525 tons to 178,650 tons, while Comex inventory rose by 1,716 tons to 529,968 tons [3] - SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 751 tons to 159,772 tons [3] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association suggested enhancing the copper resource reserve system, including expanding the national copper strategic reserve [3] - Despite a rebound in copper prices, the market faces weak fundamentals, accumulating inventory, and a demand vacuum around the Spring Festival, indicating potential price fluctuations [3] - The rigid constraints on copper mines and certainty in long-term demand suggest that any significant price drop could attract long-term investment and industrial buying [3] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 0.37% to $17,330 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 0.25% to 135,600 yuan per ton [14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 786 tons to 286,314 tons, while SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 108 tons to 48,072 tons [14] - Nickel ore and nickel pig iron prices showed strong transactions, raising concerns about tight resource supply [14] - Stainless steel inventory accumulated due to the upcoming Spring Festival, although supply-side repairs are prevalent [14][15] - Market sentiment is improving, but caution is advised regarding potential emotional resonance in the market [15] Aluminum & Alumina - Alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2605 settling at 2,788 yuan per ton, down 0.85% [16] - SHFE aluminum also experienced a decline, with AL2603 closing at 23,690 yuan per ton, down 0.92% [16] - Aluminum alloy prices decreased, with AD2603 at 22,215 yuan per ton, down 0.58% [16] - SMM alumina prices fell to 2,619 yuan per ton, while aluminum ingot spot discounts narrowed to 210 yuan per ton [16] - Increased repairs in various regions have led to supply disruptions, causing alumina to enter a narrow recovery phase [16] - Downstream inventory accumulation and logistics stagnation are expected to lead to a gradual decline in alumina prices [16] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight decline, with the main contract at 8,850 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [17] - Polysilicon prices increased, with the main contract at 51,195 yuan per ton, up 4.25% [17] - The supply of silicon ore is shrinking as companies enter winter maintenance, impacting overall supply [17] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated anti-monopoly discussions, with new orders in the silicon wafer market largely stagnant [17] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.32% to 147,220 yuan per ton [18] - Average prices for battery-grade lithium carbonate fell by 500 yuan to 153,000 yuan per ton, while industrial-grade prices also decreased by 500 yuan to 149,500 yuan per ton [18] - Weekly production of lithium decreased by 648 tons to 21,569 tons, with lithium spodumene production down by 670 tons [18] - The market sentiment is improving, but caution is warranted due to recent price declines and significant inventory levels [18]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Today, the copper price opened high and moved higher, regaining the lost ground from last night and standing above the 103,000 mark. The US dollar index remained weak, hitting a low since the second half of 2025. The spot discount of copper slightly narrowed in the morning, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken at the close. The pattern of strong industry expectations and weak reality remained unchanged [6]. - Today, the aluminum price significantly increased with an increase in positions. The positions of Shanghai aluminum increased by nearly 100,000 contracts during the session, and the open interest rose to 810,000 contracts. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. Market concerns about the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end pushed up the aluminum price in the short term. Downstream market sentiment remained wait - and - see, and the spread between February and March contracts continued to weaken [7]. - Today, the nickel price fluctuated, and the open interest decreased. The weak US dollar index was favorable for non - ferrous metals. The port nickel ore inventory seasonally accumulated, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise. The expected supply contraction supported the nickel price, while the weak industry reality pressured it. The nickel price continued to fluctuate [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics Copper - SMM reported that the spot purchasing demand for Shanghai copper slightly increased during the day, and holders were strongly willing to hold prices, causing the spot discount to slightly converge. High copper prices still suppressed downstream consumption, and weak terminal purchases led to continuous accumulation of domestic inventory. The widening spread between contracts under high inventory increased holders' willingness to deliver to warehouses, suppressing the liquidity of the spot market and supporting the repair of spot premiums and discounts. Near the end of the month, the demand for current - month bills declined, and the price of next - month invoices remained firm. The spot discount of Shanghai copper was expected to continue to be under pressure [10]. Aluminum - SMM reported that the core driving factors for the abnormal strengthening of the Shanghai aluminum price were: the escalation of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict significantly disturbing the aluminum product trading end; the diversion of funds from the precious metals market to the base metals sector under the background of position limits; and the increasing expectation of production cuts by domestic alumina plants, further boosting the overall market's bullish sentiment [11]. - Deutsche Bank predicted that the copper price would climb to a peak of $13,000 per ton in the second quarter, mainly driven by tightening supply and demand. However, the price might decline in the second half of the year as the production of several major mines gradually recovered. The aluminum price was expected to reach an annual high of $3,100 per ton in the second quarter and then gradually decline from the second half of the year. The average price for the whole year of 2026 was expected to be about $2,925 per ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts Copper - The report presented charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单 ratio, and Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - The report included charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - The report provided charts on nickel basis, LME inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][44].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The recent sharp decline in the lithium carbonate market is a rapid correction of the previous irrational rise, and the short - term sharp rise driven by policy expectations and capital sentiment has ended. In the short term, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory. In the long term, focus on the actual demand fulfillment [34][35]. - The sharp rise in the Shanghai tin market is due to its fragile and concentrated global supply chain. In the short term, there is a risk of a high - level decline, and in the long term, attention should be paid to downstream demand and policy guidance [36][37][38]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Main Metal Spot Price Trends - Copper: The futures price of the CU2603 contract rose from 92,780 to 100,770, a weekly increase of 8.61%. The spot price increased from 100,590 to 101,780, a weekly increase of 1.18% [4]. - Aluminum: The futures price of the AL2603 contract decreased from 24,385 to 23,925, a weekly decrease of 1.89%. The spot price decreased from 24,020 to 24,010, a weekly decrease of 0.04% [4]. - Zinc: The futures price of the ZN2603 contract rose from 24,015 to 24,750, a weekly increase of 3.06%. The spot price increased from 24,040 to 24,840, a weekly increase of 3.33% [4]. - Lead: The futures price of the PB2603 contract rose from 17,395 to 17,475, a weekly increase of 0.46%. The spot price increased from 17,175 to 17,300, a weekly increase of 0.73% [4]. - Nickel: The futures price of the NI2603 contract rose from 139,220 to 141,590, a weekly increase of 1.70%. The spot price increased from 141,900 to 149,350, a weekly increase of 5.25% [4]. - Alumina: The futures price of the AO2605 contract decreased from 2,843 to 2,751, a weekly decrease of 3.24%. The spot price decreased from 2,710 to 2,690, a weekly decrease of 0.74% [4]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price of the SI2605 contract decreased from 8,715 to 8,605, a weekly decrease of 1.26%. The spot price remained unchanged at 9,550 [4]. - Lithium Carbonate: The futures price of the LC2605 contract rose from 143,420 to 146,200, a weekly increase of 1.94%. The spot price increased from 139,100 to 156,250, a weekly increase of 12.33% [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures price of the PS2605 contract rose from 53,150 to 57,190, a weekly increase of 7.60%. The spot price increased from 52,300 to 52,400, a weekly increase of 0.19% [4]. 2. Copper Inventory - LME copper inventory increased from 141,000 tons to 141,100 tons, a weekly increase of 0.07%. - COMEX copper inventory increased from 515,000 tons to 538,700 tons, a weekly increase of 4.60%. - SHEF copper inventory increased from 180,500 tons to 213,500 tons, a weekly increase of 18.28% [21]. 3. Copper Concentrate Processing Fee - As of January 16, 2026, the spot TC of copper concentrate was - 46.00 US dollars/ton, remaining unchanged weekly and at a historical low. The spot RC was - 4.6 cents/pound, and the tight supply expectation at the mine end still exists [24]. 4. Lithium Spodumene Concentrate Index - As of January 16, 2026, the latest quote was 1,980 US dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 100 US dollars/ton [27]. 5. Tin Ore Import Data - In November 2025, China's imports of tin ore and concentrates were 15,099.34 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.40% and a month - on - month increase of 29.81%. Imports from Myanmar were 7,190.21 tons, a month - on - month increase of 203.77% and a year - on - year increase of 133.38%. Imports from Congo (Kinshasa) were 3,225.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.46% [30]. 6. Non - ferrous Metal Demand - In December 2025, automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2%. In 2025, cumulative automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% [32]. - In December 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.718 million and 1.71 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 8.6% and 6.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.3% and 7.2%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 52.3% of total vehicle sales [32]. - From January to November, the housing construction area was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. Residential construction area decreased by 10.0%. New housing starts decreased by 20.5%, and residential new starts decreased by 19.9%. Housing completion area decreased by 18.0%, and residential completion area decreased by 20.1% [33]. - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Solar power generation installed capacity was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%. Wind power installed capacity was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment from January to November were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [33]. 7. Strategy Recommendation Lithium Carbonate - Short - term: After the sharp decline, the price may need time to find a new balance, and attention should be paid to the spot price and social inventory [34][35]. - Long - term: Focus on the actual demand fulfillment [35]. Tin - Short - term: Be vigilant against the risk of a high - level decline [37]. - Long - term: Pay attention to the actual downstream demand and new policy guidance [38].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated downward in the morning and rebounded after hitting the bottom in the afternoon, with a significant drop in open interest. The short - term bullish sentiment cooled, and the 01 contract expired with a weakening near - month spread. The electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream industries showed a strong wait - and - see attitude. The futures price is expected to fluctuate and wait for industrial follow - up [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price decreased with a reduction in positions, and the intraday main futures price once dropped to the 24,000 mark, then rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled with strong bullish liquidation intentions. As the aluminum price reached the 24,000 mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 24,000 mark [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price soared and then fell last night and fluctuated weakly today but showed strong performance in the non - ferrous sector. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the strong performance of nickel was mainly due to positive supply - side expectations. The nickel production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The short - term macro - cooling is dominated by the marginal decrease in industrial supply, leading to the strong operation of the nickel price. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the 150,000 mark [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Affected by the high and volatile copper price, the procurement volume of scrap copper by downstream enterprises decreased significantly, and the market trading activity was weak. The price fluctuations made it difficult to form a unified pricing mechanism, and the transaction progress was hindered. In the European, American and Asian markets, most scrap - copper holders were waiting for a clearer market price. In some markets like South Korea, high - quality scrap - copper holders raised prices due to tight supply [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 15th, SMM reported that the inventory in Shanghai continued to increase, with a 17,400 - ton increase compared to January 12th, mainly in the form of warehouse receipts. It is expected that the quotation for the SHFE copper 2602 contract will still be at a discount on Friday [11]. - **Nickel**: On January 14th, 2026, the Indonesian Energy and Mineral Resources Department stated that this year's nickel production quota would be strategically adjusted to 250 - 260 million tons. The existing quota is allowed to be extended until March 31st, 2026, and the actual annual supply depends on later government evaluations and quota additions [12]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [13][19][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas electrolytic aluminum exchange inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][32][28]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][40].