1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and the domestic spot import window remained open. US economic data reduced market bets on consecutive Fed rate cuts, and Trump's claim of a US - EU trade deal is beneficial for reducing the US trade deficit. LME copper inventory remained stable, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased. As the seasonal off - season nears its end, downstream orders are expected to pick up, and the low scrap copper开工 rate is conducive to refined copper substitution. The copper market is in a balanced state between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the current oscillation [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated with a slight upward trend. The fundamental support for alumina weakened, but short - term deep declines are limited. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. The increase in aluminum ingot casting volume and early restocking by some end - user sectors have led to an uneven inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum continues to follow a "time - for - space" rhythm [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both declined. LME and domestic SHFE nickel inventories increased. The cost support for stainless steel remains, and the nickel iron transaction price center has shifted upward. Overall, the nickel market fundamentals have changed little and are in an oscillatory state [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US 8 - month Markit composite PMI initial value was 55.4, the manufacturing PMI initial value was 53.3, and the service PMI initial value was 55.4. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,052 tons to 246,480 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and BC copper decreased by 599 tons to 6,125 tons [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, AO2601 closed at 3,151 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase, AL2510 closed at 20,720 yuan/ton with a 0.58% increase, and AD2511 closed at 20,230 yuan/ton with a 0.52% increase. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,244 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a premium of 0 - 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.7% to 14,940 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.36% to 119,760 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On August 21, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 78,760 yuan/ton, and the premium was 120 yuan/ton. The 1 bright scrap copper price in Guangdong remained at 73,100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 156,350 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 66 tons to 25,157 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.8 million tons to 21.8 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,740 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME lead inventory decreased by 1,500 tons to 279,600 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts decreased by 1,481 tons to 59,422 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi aluminum price was 20,720 yuan/ton, and the Nanhai price was 20,630 yuan/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 3,048 tons to 59,890 tons, and the alumina social inventory decreased by 2.2 million tons to 6.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,350 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons to 209,598 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 29 tons to 22,588 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The main contract settlement price was 22,285 yuan/ton, up 0.3%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,875 tons to 69,375 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.24 million tons to 11.74 million tons [5]. - **Tin**: The main contract settlement price was 267,650 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. LME tin inventory increased by 25 tons to 1,740 tons, and SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased by 71 tons to 7,258 tons [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][19][20]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and 304 stainless steel smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - **Zhan Dapeng**: A science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and has published dozens of professional articles [49]. - **Wang Heng**: A master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [49]. - **Zhu Xi**: A master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, currently a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ななな [1] - Alumina: な☆☆ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ななな [1] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1] - Polysilicon: な☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall copper market is still cautiously assessing economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. Hold short positions in Shanghai copper above 79,000 [2]. - Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year [3]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, with supply surplus gradually emerging, and it will be in a weak and volatile state [3]. - Shanghai zinc is expected to rebound under pressure. In the short - term, it will stop falling and fluctuate, and in the medium - term, the idea of short - selling on rebounds is maintained [4]. - For nickel, it is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively enter short positions [7]. - Shanghai tin has a tight fundamental situation, but is also affected by demand concerns. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8]. - The lithium carbonate futures price shows a strong trend, and it is expected to fluctuate. Risk control should be done well [9]. - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be a callback risk if the policy expectation falls later [10]. - The polysilicon futures market is in a volatile adjustment situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic" [11]. Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated on Wednesday, and the short positions above 79,000 in the main contract are held. The physical copper price in Shanghai is 78,770 yuan with a premium of 190 yuan. The refined - scrap price difference is within 1,000 yuan. The US government included hundreds of end - products with high steel and aluminum content in the 50% tariff list [2]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated, and the spot in East China was at par. The downstream start - up is stable, and the peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The alumina supply surplus is emerging, and the inventory and warehouse receipts are rising [3]. Zinc - In July, the import of zinc concentrates increased by 51.9% month - on - month to 501,400 physical tons, while the import of refined zinc decreased by 50.35% month - on - month to 17,900 tons. The short - term zinc price stops falling and fluctuates, and the medium - term is short - sold on rebounds [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is in the middle and later stages of the rebound, and short positions should be actively entered. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased for 6 consecutive times, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless steel is poor, and the supply is expected to increase [7]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with reduced positions. The fundamentals are tight, with a decrease in domestic tin concentrate imports in July and low - level customs clearance of Myanmar ore. The short - term long positions are held based on the MA60 moving average [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is volatile. The market is focused on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard enterprises for the 930 deadline. The fundamentals have limited guidance on the price [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuates. The market sentiment cooled after the photovoltaic conference, but there is still a policy support expectation. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the price in Xinjiang has decreased [10]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price fluctuates. The market is in a situation where "policy logic is more important than fundamental logic", with a resistance level at the previous high of 53,000 yuan/ton and a support level at about 48,000 yuan/ton [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with a slight decline in open interest. The market sentiment improved due to the suspension of counter - measures against the US by Europe and the US, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, as copper prices rose, market consumption sentiment weakened, and with the addition of imports, the willingness of holders to sell increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the July low [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded with an increase in open interest. The domestic market sentiment improved, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. In the industrial aspect, it was the off - season for downstream industries, and both aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum showed inventory accumulation. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 40 - day moving average [4]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of nickel fluctuated narrowly below 121,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel continued to decline. The domestic market sentiment was good, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. The industrial logic remained unchanged from the previous period, and the prices of ferronickel and nickel sulfate both increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 5, affected by the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US were under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. As a result, the US customers' subsequent un - signed orders were suspended. On August 4, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 134,300 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons compared to the 28th and 13,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Aluminum**: On August 5, the total inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi was 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons. On August 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 547,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons compared to the 28th and 22,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Nickel**: On August 5, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 123,290 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2250 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 121,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 550 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was 124,340 yuan/ton with a premium of + 3300 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were 123,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2550 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and SHFE inventory [35][38][39]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and continued to decline, with decreasing positions and strong willingness among long - position holders to close out. Today, it maintained a weak trend, with the main contract price oscillating above 79,200 yuan. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, and the sharp drop in gold may affect short - term copper prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, copper prices have fallen after a rally, with strong resistance at $10,000 for LME copper and 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with decreasing positions. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but aluminum was relatively resistant. Favorable domestic macro - conditions supported aluminum prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industrial - level negatives; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but nickel was relatively resistant. On the industrial level, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which was favorable for nickel prices in the short term. Technically, nickel prices increased in volume and broke through the high point in early July, showing strong upward momentum; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 25, SMM data showed that the average spot premium in Shandong was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Currently in the off - season, weak demand and rising copper prices have further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with market transactions mainly for rigid demand. Shandong smelters have low inventories, and holders are reluctant to significantly lower premiums. This week, the region continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with low market trading activity [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 25, SMM reported that Rio Tinto achieved a record bauxite production in Q2. The company produced 15,644,000 tons of bauxite in Q2, a 6% increase from Q1, and expects full - year production to be at the upper end of the guidance range. Recycled aluminum production also increased to 74,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q1. However, bauxite production decreased by 6% from Q1, partly due to equipment shutdown and maintenance at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, Australia. On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 25, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,180 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,230 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,730 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][31][33]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The main copper futures price fluctuated around 78,000 yuan today. After hitting a low of 77,600 yuan in the morning, it rebounded. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. After the US tariff policy, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, and the spot market became looser. The narrowing scrap - refined copper price spread will support the futures price. The profit from LME imports indicates a stronger domestic copper price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the copper price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support at the 78,000 yuan level [5]. - **Aluminum**: The main aluminum futures price fluctuated around 20,400 yuan today, with a continuous decline in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the basis and calendar spread weakened significantly, the spot market became looser, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. On Monday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last Thursday. Recently, overseas electrolytic aluminum inventories have also started to rise. The main futures price retreated after hitting a previous high, and the off - season in the industry dragged down the futures price. Against the backdrop of a warming domestic macro - environment, the aluminum price may stabilize with fluctuations. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated lower today, with an increase in open interest. The non - ferrous metal market was weak overall. At the industrial level, the port inventory of upstream nickel ore continued to rise, the supply of the ore end became looser, and the support for the nickel price weakened. The downstream stainless steel followed the decline of the black metal sector. Technically, pay attention to the support at the previous low of 119,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 14, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 142,000 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from July 7 and a decrease of 6,100 tons from July 10 [9]. - **Aluminum**: In June, the output of ten non - ferrous metals was 695,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. From January to June, the cumulative output was 4.032 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.9%. Among them, the output of electrolytic aluminum in June was 381,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. From January to June, the output of electrolytic aluminum was 2.238 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.3%. On July 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 483,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from July 10 and an increase of 18,000 tons from July 7 [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 15, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Shanghai Nickel 2508 contract, the mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,420 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,970 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,170 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 118,520 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, calendar spread, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][17][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, calendar spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][30][26]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, calendar spread, SHFE inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [36][42][44].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper continued to decline with reduced positions, and the main contract price approached the 79,000 mark. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, as copper prices rise, downstream buyers are more willing to wait and see, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased significantly on Monday. In the short term, due to macro - cooling and reduced industrial purchasing willingness, long - positions are being liquidated. Attention should be paid to the support at the 79,000 level [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum declined significantly with reduced positions, and the main contract price dropped to the 20,400 level. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. On the industrial side, the downstream has entered the off - season and is afraid of high prices, resulting in a slowdown in the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory. Technically, the futures price faces some pressure at the June high [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel dropped to the 120,000 level, with a slight increase in open interest. The commodity market sentiment has been cold since last Friday, with widespread declines in non - ferrous and black metals. Fundamentally, in the short term, the upstream mines in Indonesia and the Philippines are strong, and the downstream stainless steel has also rebounded with the improvement of the domestic macro - economy, providing short - term support to the futures price. In the long - term, the oversupply of nickel elements limits the upside space of nickel prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the support at the 120,000 level [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared to the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared to the 3rd [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared to the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared to the 30th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 7, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,050 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,110 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,560 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,810 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,160 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts of aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, etc. [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [37][40][43]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | | | | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | 隔夜 LME 铜冲高回落。宏观方面，据美国财政部的最新数据，美国 4 月预算盈余 2584 | | | | | | | | 亿美元，上年同期为盈余 2095 亿美元；4 月份美国海关关税收入达到 163 亿美元，创 | | | | | | | | 历史新高，同比增长 92 亿美元，增幅达 130%，该数据在一定程度上缓解了赤字压力， | | | | | | | | | | | 预算赤字没有进一步扩大。另外，中美谈判取得超预期进展，中美各取消了共计 91%的 | | | | | | | | | 加征关税，暂停实施 24%的反制关税。库存方面，LME 铜库存下降 1025 吨至 190750 | | | | 吨。国内需求方面，当前订单相对平稳，但旺季转淡季预期下，终端需求订单可能逐步 | | | | | | | | | 放缓。中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，预计将推动风险偏好继续回升，对铜而言有望短 ...