Core Insights - The Chinese consumption market is undergoing a significant structural transformation, shifting from a goods-driven model to a service-oriented one, presenting both new growth opportunities and challenges [1][3][6] - The importance of consumption in the national economy has been increasingly recognized, with policies aimed at boosting consumption being prioritized at both national and local levels [3][10] Consumption Market Trends - The growth rate of social retail sales (社零额) has been declining, reflecting a broader economic transition as GDP growth slows [1][6] - Service consumption is projected to account for 47% of household consumption by 2024, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns towards services such as education, healthcare, and tourism [1][5] - Digital consumption is rapidly expanding, with online retail sales of physical goods reaching 27.6% of total retail sales in 2024, and in Beijing, this figure is as high as 40% [4][8] Factors Influencing Retail Sales Growth - The decline in retail sales growth is attributed to the transition from high-speed to medium-speed economic growth, alongside a shift in consumption structure from goods to services [6][7] - The contribution of final consumption to GDP growth has surpassed that of investment, highlighting the foundational role of consumption in stabilizing economic growth [7][8] Emerging Consumption Dynamics - New consumption drivers such as green consumption and digital consumption are emerging, with significant growth in sectors like electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [8] - The rise of domestic brands in various sectors, including fashion and beauty, reflects a growing trend towards "Guochao" (national tide) consumption [8] Policy Support and Market Mechanisms - Recent government policies aimed at stimulating consumption have been innovative, promoting collaboration across departments and encouraging green and smart consumption [10][11] - Market mechanisms are crucial for achieving supply-demand matching, yet challenges remain due to a lack of diversified supply and institutional barriers in service sectors [11][12] Challenges Facing the Consumption Market - Employment and income issues significantly impact consumer confidence and spending capacity [12][13] - The traditional supply model struggles to meet diverse consumer demands, and systemic barriers in sectors like education and healthcare hinder service development [13] - The transition from quantity to quality in consumption is essential, requiring comprehensive reforms in statistical systems, governance, and corporate structures to enhance consumer experience and confidence [13]

Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2023, manufacturing employment is significantly above potential levels by 0.2 million, with its revenue share of GDP exceeding potential levels by 5.8%[1] - The employment share in manufacturing has increased by 6.2% compared to potential levels, indicating a pronounced "involution" phenomenon[1] - Conversely, the service sector has a significant employment gap of 0.4 million, with its employment share falling to -3.8% compared to potential levels[1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" in the sector[1] - The potential investment gap in the service sector is estimated to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a mismatch with current demand[1] Group 3: Consumption Gaps - The gap in goods consumption compared to potential levels is approximately 640 billion yuan, while the gap in service consumption reaches nearly 30 trillion yuan[2] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant shortfall in service demand[2] Group 4: Policy Directions - Current policies are encouraging increased consumer time, which is expected to boost service demand, with a notable increase in holiday allowances[5] - The service sector is receiving policy support, with significant improvements in investment growth, particularly in the life services sector, which saw a growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017[5]

以下文章来源于城市进化论 ，作者杨弃非 城市进化论 . 探寻城市路径，揭秘经济逻辑 （互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：51120190017） 来源丨城市进化论（ID：urban_evolution） 作者丨杨弃非 图源丨Midjourney 或许没什么比"消费第一城"易主，更能令人直接感受到消费趋势的变化。 数据显示，今年一季度，上海社会消费品零售总额为4057.45亿元，同比下降1.1%，同期重庆该数据为 4204.32亿元，同比上升4.1%。这也意味着，重庆一季度消费数据反超上海，成为新晋全国"第一"。 一直以来，上海是公认的消费大市和商业"标杆"，其社消零总额自2018年超过北京后，已连续7年居全国 城市首位。在罕见被重庆反超后，外界难免关心：上海商业，是否正在走下"神坛"？ 问题的答案，很难直接从数字中得出。有人推测，位次下滑可能源于春节节假日消费变化或者消费券发 放的附带效果；更不用说，仅看社消零数据，难以概括上海消费的全部。就连重庆本地媒体也在自我审 视时，发出登顶"是否'昙花一现'"的灵魂拷问。 事实上，比起数据增减和位次升降，上海消费的一些具体变化更值得探讨—— 去年以来，服务消费正成为上海重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The shift in consumer spending patterns is highlighted by Chongqing surpassing Shanghai as the top city in retail sales, indicating a potential decline in Shanghai's status as a consumer powerhouse [1][4]. Group 1: Retail Sales Data - In Q1 2023, Shanghai's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 405.745 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%, while Chongqing's figure was 420.432 billion yuan, an increase of 4.1% [1]. - Shanghai had maintained the top position in retail sales since 2018, but this recent change raises questions about its commercial status [1][4]. Group 2: Shift to Service Consumption - Shanghai is focusing on service consumption, launching initiatives like the "Service Consumption Season" and the "Five-Five Shopping Festival" to promote this sector [4][5]. - In 2023, service consumption contributed nearly 60% to Shanghai's total retail sales, surpassing the contribution from goods retail by over 10 percentage points [5]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The per capita disposable income in Shanghai for Q1 2023 was approximately 25,800 yuan, ranking first among 31 provinces and showing a nominal growth rate of 4.6% [6]. - Nationally, per capita service consumption expenditure was 13,016 yuan in 2022, with a year-on-year growth of 7.4%, and service consumption accounted for 46.1% of total consumption expenditure [5]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior Trends - Emotional value is increasingly influencing consumer behavior, with a focus on experiences rather than just material goods [15]. - The rise of service consumption is seen as a response to the demand for emotional and experiential satisfaction, leading to a symbiotic relationship between goods and services [15]. Group 5: International Consumer Engagement - Shanghai is enhancing its appeal to international tourists, with significant growth in overseas visitor numbers and spending, particularly from countries with visa exemptions [16][18]. - In 2024, Shanghai is expected to receive 6.706 million inbound tourists, a year-on-year increase of 84%, with a notable rise in tax refund sales for foreign visitors [18][19].