Group 1 - The core issue of "involution" stems from an imbalance in the manufacturing and service industries, with manufacturing employment exceeding actual demand while service employment remains insufficient [2][9] - In 2023, manufacturing employment was significantly above potential levels (+0.2 billion), while service employment showed a notable shortfall (-0.4 billion) [9][106] - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" phenomenon, while service investment is approximately 1.5 trillion yuan below potential levels [18][106] Group 2 - There is a substantial gap in consumer spending, with a shortfall of about 6,400 billion yuan in goods consumption and nearly 30,000 billion yuan in service consumption [3][27] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant unmet demand in the service sector [27][106] Group 3 - Long-term solutions to "involution" involve shifting focus from manufacturing supply to service supply, as global experiences indicate a transition in consumer demand from goods to services at certain GDP and urbanization levels [4][107] - The aging population and smaller household sizes are expected to further drive demand for service consumption, particularly in areas like healthcare and leisure [45][52] Group 4 - Current policies are actively promoting service consumption, investment, and exports, which are seen as the new "three drivers" of economic growth [6][80] - Measures such as extending statutory holidays and encouraging private investment in the service sector are expected to enhance service demand and investment [91][109] - The recovery of inbound tourism is anticipated to significantly contribute to service exports, with potential growth in travel exports projected at 60.5% year-on-year for 2024 [97][109]

Group 1: Employment Trends - In 2023, manufacturing employment is significantly above potential levels by 0.2 million, with its revenue share of GDP exceeding potential levels by 5.8%[1] - The employment share in manufacturing has increased by 6.2% compared to potential levels, indicating a pronounced "involution" phenomenon[1] - Conversely, the service sector has a significant employment gap of 0.4 million, with its employment share falling to -3.8% compared to potential levels[1] Group 2: Investment Insights - Manufacturing investment remains high despite declining revenues, indicating an "involution" in the sector[1] - The potential investment gap in the service sector is estimated to be around 1.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a mismatch with current demand[1] Group 3: Consumption Gaps - The gap in goods consumption compared to potential levels is approximately 640 billion yuan, while the gap in service consumption reaches nearly 30 trillion yuan[2] - In 2024, the per capita gap in service consumption is projected to be 2,093 yuan, highlighting a significant shortfall in service demand[2] Group 4: Policy Directions - Current policies are encouraging increased consumer time, which is expected to boost service demand, with a notable increase in holiday allowances[5] - The service sector is receiving policy support, with significant improvements in investment growth, particularly in the life services sector, which saw a growth rate of 15.3% in May, nearing the highest level since 2017[5]

以下文章来源于城市进化论 ，作者杨弃非 城市进化论 . 探寻城市路径，揭秘经济逻辑 （互联网新闻信息服务许可证编号：51120190017） 来源丨城市进化论（ID：urban_evolution） 作者丨杨弃非 图源丨Midjourney 或许没什么比"消费第一城"易主，更能令人直接感受到消费趋势的变化。 数据显示，今年一季度，上海社会消费品零售总额为4057.45亿元，同比下降1.1%，同期重庆该数据为 4204.32亿元，同比上升4.1%。这也意味着，重庆一季度消费数据反超上海，成为新晋全国"第一"。 一直以来，上海是公认的消费大市和商业"标杆"，其社消零总额自2018年超过北京后，已连续7年居全国 城市首位。在罕见被重庆反超后，外界难免关心：上海商业，是否正在走下"神坛"？ 问题的答案，很难直接从数字中得出。有人推测，位次下滑可能源于春节节假日消费变化或者消费券发 放的附带效果；更不用说，仅看社消零数据，难以概括上海消费的全部。就连重庆本地媒体也在自我审 视时，发出登顶"是否'昙花一现'"的灵魂拷问。 事实上，比起数据增减和位次升降，上海消费的一些具体变化更值得探讨—— 去年以来，服务消费正成为上海重 ...

或许没什么比"消费第一城"易主，更能令人直接感受到消费趋势的变化 数据显示，今年一季度，上海社会消费品零售总额为4057.45亿元，同比下降1.1%，同期重庆该数据为4204.32亿元，同比上升4.1%。这也意味着，重庆一季 度消费数据反超上海，成为新晋全国"第一"。 去年以来，服务消费正成为上海重点发力的方向。从全国首次"服务消费季"活动落地上海，到进博会发布服务消费场景打卡指南，再到今年补贴力度最大的 一届"五五购物节"再发服务消费券，上海重新瞄准消费新热点，提出打造"国内领先、国际一流的服务消费标杆城市"。 在外界看来，我国正在迈向一场面向服务消费的结构性转型。随着促消费不断被置于经济发展重要位置，上海的变化又能带来何种启示？ 服务消费大市 当消费大市竞争仍紧盯社消零数据变化时，剑指服务消费的上海，实则正在走上一条新赛道。 一直以来，上海是公认的消费大市和商业"标杆"，其社消零总额自2018年超过北京后，已连续7年居全国城市首位。在罕见被重庆反超后，外界难免关心： 上海商业，是否正在走下"神坛"？ 每经记者 杨弃非 每经编辑 刘艳美 问题的答案，很难直接从数字中得出。有人推测，位次下滑可能源于春节节假日 ...