Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of perfect weather on the August soybean pod-setting period in the U.S. [1] - U.S. soybean futures are experiencing a downward trend, indicating a potential opening of a bearish channel [1] - U.S. corn prices have dropped to a two-week low, raising questions about whether funds are betting on changing weather conditions or a surge in demand [1] Group 2 - Funds have reduced their short positions for three consecutive weeks, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic commodity market experienced a rare daily limit surge on Tuesday, with the main contracts of six varieties, including glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, closing at the daily limit. The core driving force for this rally is the continuous release of the "anti-involution" policy signal by the state, combined with the coal mine production inspection notice circulated on the same day, which triggered expectations of supply tightening [2][46]. - The international precious metal futures generally closed higher, while international oil prices slightly declined. London's base metals mostly rose, and international agricultural product futures showed mixed performance [3][4][5]. - In the financial market, A-shares continued to rise, and the Hong Kong stock market also showed an upward trend. The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, and Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs on a large scale in the second quarter [30]. - Overseas, there are various events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel, and corporate financial reports [10][11][43]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night Market Trends - Domestic commodity market: Six varieties' main contracts closed at the daily limit, and the black series continued to rise at night, with coking coal up 11% and coke up 5.29% [2]. - International precious metal futures: COMEX gold futures rose 1.10% to $3444.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.83% to $39.66 per ounce [3]. - International oil prices: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.76% to $65.45 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.66% to $68.75 per barrel [4]. - London base metals: Most rose, with LME zinc up 0.53%, LME copper up 0.39%, LME tin up 0.32%, and LME aluminum up 0.21% [4]. - International agricultural product futures: Mixed performance, with US soybeans down 0.17%, US corn down 1.18%, US soybean oil down 0.59%, US soybean meal up 1.13%, and US wheat up 1.34% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high-quality development of rural highways [8]. - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, the balance of RMB loans of financial institutions was 268.56 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. The balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [8]. - The current market has no obvious unilateral expectation of RMB appreciation or depreciation, and market transactions are rational and orderly [9]. - There are various international events and statements, including trade negotiations, comments on the Federal Reserve's policies and personnel [10][11][12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The next round of China-US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [15]. - As of the week of July 21, the social inventory of domestic asphalt increased by 0.3%, and the factory inventory decreased by 2.6% [15]. Metal Futures - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will support the stable operation and high-quality development of the non-ferrous metal industry [17][18]. - China's alumina exports in June 2025 decreased by 17.71% month-on-month but increased by 8.95% year-on-year [18]. - In May 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons, and from January to May, the surplus was 272,000 tons [18]. Black Series Futures - Some steel mills plan to raise the price of wet-quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry-quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton on July 23 [20]. - The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China increased by 722,500 tons compared with last Monday [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Russia reduced its wheat production and export volume forecasts for 2025 [22]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high, but the inventory reached an 18-month high [23]. - It is expected that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [23]. - Various other agricultural product data, including soybean, pig, and sugar production and trade information [25][26][28]. Financial Market Finance - A-shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.62% to 3581.86 points, and the market turnover expanding to 1.93 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.54% to 25,130.03 points, and the southbound capital had a net inflow of HK$2.717 billion [30]. - The science and technology innovation board celebrated its 6th anniversary, with 589 companies listed, raising a total of 925.7 billion yuan in IPOs and 186.7 billion yuan in refinancing [30]. - Central Huijin increased its holdings of ETFs by over 200 billion yuan in the second quarter [32]. - Overseas institutions mainly surveyed companies in the electronics, machinery, pharmaceutical, and non-ferrous metal industries in July [32]. - Zhongyou Insurance triggered a mandatory tender offer by buying 726,000 shares of Green Power Environmental Protection H shares [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange took regulatory measures against abnormal trading behavior in *ST Yazhen [32]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Company will launch the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Index and the Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation Private Enterprise Strategy Index on July 23 [33]. - SenseTime plans to enter the field of embodied intelligence [33]. Industry - The National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities and plans to layout data industry agglomeration areas in the second half of the year [34]. - 127 domestic games and 7 imported games obtained game licenses in July [36]. - The game "Late Ming: Feather of the Abyss" topped the Steam bestseller list [36]. - The news of "Beijing banning fuel vehicles from ride-hailing platforms" was false [36]. - China's shipbuilding industry maintained its global leading position in the first half of the year [36]. - Telecommunication business revenue in the first half of the year was 905.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1% [37]. Overseas - Trump called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said that Fed Chairman Powell would leave office soon [38]. - US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that tariff revenue was "huge" and supported Powell to complete his term [38]. - Various international events, including trade negotiations, policy statements, and corporate financial reports [38][40][43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow Jones rising 0.4%, the S&P 500 rising 0.06%, and the Nasdaq falling 0.39% [43]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX falling 1.09%, the French CAC40 falling 0.69%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 0.12% [43]. - Coca-Cola's second-quarter adjusted revenue and earnings per share were better than expected [43]. - General Motors' second-quarter revenue and net profit declined [44]. - Lockheed Martin's second-quarter net sales and operating profit were lower than expected, and it lowered its full-year earnings per share forecast [45]. Commodities - Similar to the overnight night market trends, the domestic commodity market had a daily limit surge, and international precious metal, oil, and base metal futures showed different performances [2][3][4][46]. - Russia maintained its forecast for grain production and export volume [48]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was weak, with treasury bond futures closing down [49]. - As of the end of June, overseas institutions held 4.23 trillion yuan of interbank market bonds, accounting for about 2.5% of the total [50]. - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank successfully issued a 20 billion yuan panda bond [50]. - Japanese government bond yields attracted record foreign capital inflows [52]. - US bond yields declined across the board [52]. Foreign Exchange - The RMB appreciated by 1.9% against the US dollar in the first half of the year, and the market had no obvious unilateral expectation [53]. - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose 12 points, and the offshore RMB rose 5 points [54][55]. - The US dollar index fell 0.49%, and most non-US currencies rose [54]. Upcoming Events - There are various events scheduled for July 23, including central bank operations, press conferences, and industry exhibitions [56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing decline in the prices of U.S. soybeans and corn futures, emphasizing that fundamental factors and weather expectations are driving market trends, with August potentially being a critical window period for these commodities [1] Group 1: Market Trends - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices are experiencing a continued downward adjustment [1] - The market is influenced by both fundamental factors and weather forecasts, indicating a complex interplay affecting prices [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - August is highlighted as a potentially significant period for the agricultural commodities market, suggesting that developments during this time could impact future pricing and market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. corn futures have dropped over 2%, settling at 400.25 cents per bushel [1] Group 1 - The decline in corn futures indicates a bearish trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] - The specific price of corn futures is reported at 400.25 cents per bushel, reflecting a significant decrease [1]

Core Insights - U.S. corn futures have rebounded, while soybean and wheat futures have seen slight recoveries, indicating a mixed performance in the agricultural futures market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding agricultural futures is heightened by the escalation of Trump's trade policies, which may impact market dynamics [1] - An upcoming U.S. agricultural report is expected to provide insights into crop yield forecasts, which could significantly influence futures market trends [1] Group 1 - U.S. corn futures are experiencing a rebound [1] - Soybean and wheat futures have shown slight recoveries [1] - Trump's trade policies are adding uncertainty to the agricultural futures market [1] Group 2 - The upcoming U.S. agricultural report will likely affect crop yield expectations [1] - Crop yield forecasts are crucial for understanding potential impacts on the futures market [1]

Core Insights - U.S. soybean futures experienced a slight increase while corn futures fell to a one-week low, indicating mixed market trends [1] - Improvements in U.S. crops and favorable weather conditions are influencing market dynamics, raising questions about future supply and demand [1] - Large speculators are increasing their short positions, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment [1]

Group 1 - U.S. wheat futures have fallen to a one-week low, indicating potential market volatility [1] - The zero export tax on Russian wheat raises questions about market supply and competition [1] - U.S. corn and soybean prices have also declined, suggesting a broader trend in agricultural commodities [1] Group 2 - The impact of the Independence Day holiday on the U.S. agricultural market remains to be seen [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. Although the market has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area due to trade friction concerns, it will be reflected if conditions permit. The higher-than-expected quarterly inventory report has a negative impact, but its persistence is limited as inventory data will change with demand [1][16]. - The trade agreement is always the most important driving factor for US soybeans. Additionally, attention should be paid to the weather in the main soybean-producing areas in the US, the soybean's good-to-excellent rate, and US tariff policies [2][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 USDA Planting Area Intentions Report - The USDA's June planting area intentions report estimated that the US soybean planting area in 2025 would be 83.38 million acres, lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year decrease of about 4.2%. The estimated corn planting area was 95.203 million acres, slightly lower than the market expectation and a year-on-year increase of about 5%. The soybean planting area in 2025 is the lowest since 2021, and the corn planting area is the highest since 2016 [4]. - The reduction in the US soybean planting area is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The report data is positive for US soybeans and negative for US corn prices. The market has fully priced in the pressure of corn's increased planting area, but has not fully priced in the positive impact of the reduced soybean planting area [5]. 3.2 USDA Quarterly Inventory Report - According to the USDA's June 30, 2025, quarterly grain inventory report, as of the quarter ending June 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was about 1 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 3.9%, higher than the market expectation of 980 million bushels and at the highest level for the same period since 2021. The on-farm inventory was about 410 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of about 12%, and the off-farm inventory was about 596 million bushels, a year-on-year increase of about 18% [13]. 3.3 Report Impact and Future Outlook - The lower-than-expected soybean planting area in the US in 2025 is beneficial for supporting soybean prices. The planting area intentions report is positive, while the quarterly inventory report is negative, but the impact of the planting area report is greater and crucial for the formation of US soybean production in 2025 [16]. - Future points of attention include: the weather in the main US soybean-producing areas, as the monthly forecast shows high temperatures and less precipitation in some areas in July, and the short-term forecast shows normal precipitation and slightly high temperatures in the next two weeks; the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans, as the data in June 2025 was lower than the same period last year, and the market may price it in if it continues to be low; and US tariff policies, trade negotiations, or trade agreements, as the trade agreement is the most important driving factor for US soybeans [2][17].

Core Insights - U.S. soybean and corn futures prices have rebounded from multi-month lows, raising questions about whether the oversupply will end the upward momentum [1] - Upcoming reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture are anticipated to influence market expectations significantly [1] Group 1 - The rebound in soybean and corn futures indicates a potential shift in market dynamics after a period of low prices [1] - The market is closely monitoring supply levels to determine if the current upward trend can be sustained [1] - The impact of the forthcoming USDA reports is expected to be critical in shaping future price movements and market sentiment [1]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. soybean and corn futures have hit multi-month lows, while wheat futures have declined for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns about global supply surplus and the potential continuation of the downward price trend [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - U.S. soybean futures have reached a low not seen in several months, indicating a significant drop in market value [1] - U.S. corn futures have also touched multi-month lows, reflecting similar downward pressure in the market [1] - Wheat futures have experienced a decline for four consecutive days, suggesting a persistent bearish trend in this commodity [1] Group 2: Market Concerns - There is an increasing worry about global supply surplus, which is contributing to the downward pressure on prices across these commodities [1] - The article raises the question of whether the current price decline trend will continue, indicating uncertainty in the market outlook [1]