【国富期货早间看点】SGS马棕11月前20日出口环比减40.6% Patria巴西大豆播种率为79.61% 20251124 国富研究 国富研究 2025年11月24日 07:20 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油02(BMD) | 4068. 00 | -2. 05 | | | 布伦特01(ICE) | 62. 51 | -1.08 | 0. 86 | | 美原油01(NYMEX) | 57.98 | -1. 33 | 0. 89 | | 美豆01(CBOT) | 1126. 50 | 0. 31 | 0. 74 | | 美豆粕01(CBOT) | 319.80 | 0.66 | 0. 41 | | 美豆油01(CBOT) | 50. 61 | -0. 90 | 0. 76 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 15 | -0. 08 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7.0875 | -0. 04 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking [1][3][6][18][23][26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures contracts such as palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented, along with the latest prices and percentage changes of currency indices [1] Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided [3] Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from November 5th to 9th shows that temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be near or below the median [6] - In the US Midwest, sporadic showers may disrupt early - November harvesting or other field operations, with variable weather and limited precipitation [8] - In central Brazil, showers have restarted, and more extensive rainfall is expected this week, which may affect soybean crop germination and early growth [9] 进出口及产量数据 - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in October increased by 4.31% month - on - month, while ITS reported a 5.19% increase [10] - Indonesia set the reference price for crude palm oil in November slightly higher than in October, with export taxes remaining unchanged [10] - The USDA may release several major agricultural reports in November, and analysts expect US soybean crushing volume in September to reach a record high [10][11] - The amount of soybean oil used to produce biofuels in the US in August decreased compared to July [11] - The soybean planting progress in Mato Grosso state is 76.13%, slightly lower than the historical average [12] - The rapeseed harvesting progress in Canada is high, and the export volume increased in the week ending October 26th, but decreased compared to the same period last year [12] - India's soybean meal exports in the 2024/25 fiscal year decreased by 11% [13] - The Baltic Dry Index declined, with different types of ships showing varying price trends [14] 国内供需 - On October 31st, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 26% compared to the previous trading day [16] - The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill operating rate decreased [16] - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 44th week was lower than expected [16] - The pig - raising profit improved, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 31st [16][17] Macro News International News - A Fed official believes that the Fed should not cut interest rates this week or in December [19] - Analysts' forecasts for oil prices remain largely unchanged, and OPEC+ may slightly increase its oil production target or pause production increases [19][20] Domestic News - On October 31st, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards, and the central bank achieved a net investment through reverse repurchase operations [22] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list option contracts for soybean meal and corn futures [22] Fund Flows - On October 31st, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.226 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net outflow of 2.724 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 6.722 billion yuan, while treasury bond futures had a net inflow of 140 million yuan [25] Arbitrage Tracking - No relevant information provided

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, international supply - demand, trading volume, macro news, and fund flows. It details the price movements of various commodities, the impact of weather on crops, international trade policies, and macro - economic events that may influence the market. 3. Summary by Directory 01 & 02 Spot Market - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX crude oil, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil are presented. For example, BMD palm oil 12 closed at 4424.00 with a - 0.23% decline [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Spot prices and basis for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. For instance, DCE palm oil 2601 in North China has a spot price of 9450 and a basis of 100 [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The latest exchange rates and their changes for the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. are provided. The US dollar index is at 97.64 with a 0.29% increase [1]. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions**: In the US, soybean - producing states will have generally high temperatures and above - median precipitation from September 24 - 28. The Midwest will have continuous showers, and the west may experience heavy rain, which may affect crop maturity and harvest [3][5]. - **International Supply - Demand**: Malaysia has raised its October CPO reference price to 4268.68 ringgit/ton, keeping the export tariff at 10%. As of September 16, CBOT soybean long - positions increased by 13,986 to 167,351. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean planting rate reached 0.7%, higher than previous years. Argentina's 2025/26 grain exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons [7][8]. 04 Macro News - **International News**: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican - proposed temporary funding bill, risking a government shutdown. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the last two Fed meetings [16]. - **Domestic News**: On September 19, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1128, up 43 points. The PBOC conducted 3543 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repos, with a net injection of 1243 billion yuan on that day and 5623 billion yuan for the week [18]. 05 Fund Flows On September 19, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 8.463 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 5.599 billion yuan, including 250 million yuan in agricultural products, 1.083 billion yuan in chemicals, 1.118 billion yuan in black - series, and 3.149 billion yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 13.884 billion yuan, and bond futures had a net outflow of 188 million yuan [21]. 06 Trading Volume - On September 19, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 5500 tons, a 74% decrease from the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 99,100 tons, an increase of 41,400 tons from the previous day [13]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills from September 13 - 19 was 2.4275 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.76%. It is expected to decrease slightly in the 39th week [13].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products, as well as currency exchange rates and central bank policies [1][2][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and various currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal are given for different regions. CNF quotes and CNF premium changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather Conditions** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have mostly lower - than - normal temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 27th to 31st. The Midwest had rain and temperature drops over the weekend, and the 6 - 10 - day outlook shows a mix of dry and rainy conditions with lower - than - normal temperatures. Brazil's 9 - month rainfall pattern is weak, and the region will become warmer [3][5][6]. - **International Supply and Demand** - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, and exports increased by 37.19%. CBOT futures contracts had changes in long and short positions. Pro Farmer predicts high yields for US corn and soybeans. Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to increase by 3%, and Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production and planting area are also expected to rise. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 12.9% [9][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand** - On August 22nd, the total trading volume of domestic soybean oil and palm oil increased by 3% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate decreased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit increased, while the profit from purchasing piglets remained in the red. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased slightly [13][14]. Macro - economic News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is 91.1%. Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for a September rate cut. Canada decided to cancel some retaliatory tariffs on US goods [16]. - **Domestic News** - On August 22nd, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The central bank conducted 3612 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection of 1232 billion yuan on that day and 13652 billion yuan for the week. On August 25th, the central bank will conduct 6000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. From January to July 2025, the country absorbed 4673.4 billion yuan of foreign investment [18][19]. Fund Flows - On August 22nd, the futures market had a net inflow of 144.8 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 16.11 billion yuan, while stock - index futures had a net inflow of 160.91 billion yuan. The report also lists the fund flows of various futures contracts [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content is provided in the given report for this section.

Group 1 - The commodity market is experiencing a resurgence of capital inflow after a volatile period in late July, particularly in coking coal futures, which saw significant price increases and trading volume growth [1][3] - As of August 6, coking coal futures total open interest has rebounded to 863,000 contracts, indicating a return to relatively high historical levels, driven by supply-demand dynamics and regulatory factors [3][4] - The supply situation for coking coal is tight, with inventory levels at mines and washing plants at their lowest since March 2024, suggesting a shift from surplus to a phase of shortage, which supports coal prices [4][5] Group 2 - The recent price movements in various commodity futures show a divergence, with coking coal and coke futures rising by 13.22% and 5.77% respectively, while other commodities like glass and lithium carbonate have shown weaker performance [5][6] - The trading behavior in the lithium carbonate market indicates a lack of sustained upward momentum due to high production and inventory levels, contrasting with the strong recovery seen in coking coal [5][6] - The futures market is experiencing significant price adjustments, with the price of lithium carbonate futures previously trading at a substantial premium over spot prices, leading to a rapid correction in the market [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive overview of the agricultural and energy markets, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, and capital flow data. It also presents forecasts for crop production and market trends based on various data sources such as USDA, SPPOMA, and NOPA [1][2][6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products. Currency exchange rates and their fluctuations are also provided [1]. - For example, the closing price of BMD palm oil 09 was 4175.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.68% and an overnight increase of 1% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and changes for imported soybeans are also included [2]. - For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China was 8850, with a basis of 150 and a basis change of - 30 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather and Crop Conditions - The future weather outlook for US soybean - producing states from July 16 - 20 shows that rainfall in major soybean - producing states is higher than normal, and central temperatures are lower. The Midwest has suitable conditions for most crops, but some areas like northern Illinois and Indiana need rainfall [3][5]. 3.3.2 Crop Production and Export Forecasts - USDA predicts that the global palm oil production in 2025/26 will be 8073.6 million tons, with unchanged exports from Indonesia and Malaysia compared to last month. SPPOMA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production increased by 35.28% from July 1 - 10, 2025 [6]. - USDA also provides forecasts for US and global soybean production, ending stocks, and exports in different crop years. For example, the 2025/26 US soybean ending stocks are expected to be 3.1 billion bushels [8]. 3.3.3 Market News - Malaysian palm oil exports may increase this month due to buyers' rush to ship before the US tariff policy takes effect on August 1. CFTC position reports show changes in long and short positions for various agricultural products [7]. - USDA reports private exporters' sales of 21.99 million tons of soybeans to Mexico for 2025/2026 delivery. The US biofuel manufacturers' demand for soybean oil is expected to reach a record - high of 15.5 billion pounds in 2025/26, leading to a significant drop in exports [10]. - NOPA monthly report forecasts suggest a decline in soybean crushing in June 2025 compared to May but an increase compared to June 2024. Brazilian soybean planting area and production are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season [11]. 3.4 Macro - economic News 3.4.1 International News - The US Treasury's monthly budget report shows a significant increase in tariff revenue in June. Trump announced 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. The IEA adjusted its forecasts for global oil supply and demand, and Russia plans to compensate for over - production in August - September [17]. - The EU Commission President extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs until early August [18]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On July 11, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward (yuan appreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 507 million yuan on that day and a net withdrawal of 22.65 billion yuan for the week [20]. 3.5 Capital Flow - On July 11, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 26.685 billion yuan, with 3.417 billion yuan flowing into commodity futures (including 373 million yuan into agricultural product futures, 680 million yuan into chemical futures, 361 million yuan into black - series futures, and 2.004 billion yuan into metal futures) and 23.267 billion yuan into stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.