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能源日报-20250820
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 12:44
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: No rating indicated [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The crude oil market maintains a volatile trend, and the price center still faces downward pressure in the medium term, but short - term long positions in futures and options are at a low level, and a strategy of buying out - of - the - money options is recommended for hedging [2] - The fuel oil system shows relatively stronger performance than SC, but the expected increase in heavy - quality resources from the Middle East still suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, and the price fluctuates weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure, and the high - basis pattern can continue, with the market mainly in low - level fluctuations [5] Summary by Product Crude Oil - The SC10 contract fell 0.47%. The market faces the pressure of accelerated inventory accumulation after the third - quarter peak season, and the price center may shift down in the medium term. Short - term net long positions in overseas futures and options are at a low level. Hold out - of - the - money option double - buy strategies for hedging and then intervene in medium - term short positions after volatility increases [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil system is relatively stronger than SC, with cracking strengthening. The shipment of high - sulfur fuel oil from the Middle East to Asia is increasing, and the inventory in Fujairah has decreased. The total arrival volume in August increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared with June. The high - sulfur is relatively under pressure, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils has widened [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to have a diversion effect on North Asian resources. Sinopec's asphalt production has a trend of increasing year - on - year decline. Road demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" season. The 8 - month sample refinery shipment increased by 8% year - on - year. The BU single - side price follows the SC's fluctuations, and the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas market is stabilizing. Domestic imports and refinery outflows are increasing, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the high - operating rate. The top pressure is strong under high - level warehouse receipts, and the market is mainly in low - level fluctuations [5]
NYMEX 8月天然气期货收跌0.09%,报3.3370美元/百万英热单位。NYMEX 8月汽油期货收报2.1524美元/加仑,NYMEX 8月取暖油期货收报2.3835美元/加仑。
news flash· 2025-07-10 18:39
Core Viewpoint - NYMEX natural gas futures for August closed down by 0.09%, settling at $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 1: Natural Gas - NYMEX August natural gas futures decreased by 0.09% [1] - The closing price for natural gas futures was $3.3370 per million British thermal units [1] Group 2: Other Commodities - NYMEX August gasoline futures closed at $2.1524 per gallon [1] - NYMEX August heating oil futures settled at $2.3835 per gallon [1]
周五(7月4日))纽约尾盘,WTI原油期货跌0.76%,报66.49美元/桶。NYMEX天然气期货跌0.56%,报3.390美元/百万英热单位。
news flash· 2025-07-04 17:28
Group 1 - WTI crude oil futures declined by 0.76%, settling at $66.49 per barrel [1] - NYMEX natural gas futures fell by 0.56%, closing at $3.390 per million British thermal units [1]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250627
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 03:16
2025年06月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金:地缘政治停火 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜:伦铜现货走强,支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝:偏强运行 | 7 | | 氧化铝:大幅反弹 | 7 | | 铝合金:震荡偏强 | 7 | | 锌:短期偏强 | 9 | | 铅:偏强运行 | 10 | | 锡:紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍:远端镍矿端预期松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢:供需边际双弱,钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂:仓单增加但总量偏低,短期走势偏震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅:减产消息扰动,关注上方空间 | 17 | | 多晶硅:市场情绪发酵,亦关注上方空间 | 17 | | 铁矿石:预期反复,区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁:现货情绪提振,宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅:现货情绪提振,宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭:情绪释放,震荡偏强 | 24 | | 焦煤:检查扰动持续发酵,震荡偏强 | 24 | | 动力煤:需求仍待释放, ...
周三(6月25日)纽约尾盘,WTI原油期货涨0.89%,报64.94美元/桶。布伦特原油期货涨0.80%,报67.68美元。NYMEX天然气期货跌1.92%,报3.585美元/百万英热单位。
news flash· 2025-06-25 21:09
NYMEX天然气期货跌1.92%,报3.585美元/百万英热单位。 布伦特原油期货涨0.80%,报67.68美元。 周三(6月25日)纽约尾盘,WTI原油期货涨0.89%,报64.94美元/桶。 ...
安粮期货豆粕日报-20250429
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-04-29 01:32
1、现货市场:日照嘉吉一级豆油 8140 元/吨,较上一交易日跌 120 元/吨。 2、宏观:特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好,对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析:当前时间窗口下,正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季,目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看,南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性,豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点:豆油 2509 合约,短线或区间震荡整理。 现货信息:43 豆粕各地区现货报价:张家港 3450 元/吨(-200)、天津 3580 元/吨(-170)、 日照 3650 元/吨(-50)、东莞 3690 元/吨(-10)。 市场分析:(1)宏观面: 中美贸易关税问题暂未解决,影响中美大豆贸易。 (2)国际大豆:美豆开启播种,进度超过预期。巴西大豆即将进入出口高峰期。 (3)国内豆粕供需面:巴西大豆逐渐到港,油厂开机率回升,豆粕供给预期将逐渐转为宽 松。现货市场五一节前备货与油厂开工出现错配,豆粕库存降至低点。 参考观点:豆粕短线或震荡运行。 现货信息:东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米主流收购 ...