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沥青早报-20250711
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-11 00:20
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - The price of BU main contract on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU06 on 7/10 was 3370, with a daily change of 16 and an interval change of 100 [4]. - The price of BU09 on 7/10 was 3629, with a daily change of 6 and an interval change of 58 [4]. - The price of BU12 on 7/10 was 3447, with a daily change of 7 and an interval change of 70 [4]. - The price of BU03 on 7/10 was 3384, with a daily change of 1 and an interval change of 69 [4]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume on 7/10 was 176,852, a decrease of 46,382 from the previous day and a decrease of 30,278 from the interval [4]. - The open interest on 7/10 was 471,972, an increase of 2,951 from the previous day and a decrease of 12,902 from the interval [4]. Spot Prices - The low - end price in the Shandong market on 7/10 was 3580, a decrease of 20 from the previous day and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the East China market on 7/10 was 3670, with no daily change and an increase of 20 from the interval [4]. - The low - end price in the South China market on 7/10 was 3600, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the North China market on 7/10 was 3750, with no daily and interval change [4]. - The low - end price in the Northeast market on 7/10 was 3850, with no daily change and a decrease of 50 from the interval [4]. Basis and Spread - The Shandong basis on 7/10 was - 49, a decrease of 26 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The East China basis on 7/10 was 41, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 38 from the interval [4]. - The South China basis on 7/10 was - 29, a decrease of 6 from the previous day and a decrease of 28 from the interval [4]. - The 03 - 06 spread on 7/10 was 14, a decrease of 15 from the previous day and a decrease of 31 from the interval [4]. - The 06 - 09 spread on 7/10 was - 259, an increase of 10 from the previous day and an increase of 42 from the interval [4]. - The 09 - 12 spread on 7/10 was 182, a decrease of 1 from the previous day and a decrease of 12 from the interval [4]. - The 12 - 03 spread on 7/10 was 63, an increase of 6 from the previous day [4]. Crack Spread and Profit - The asphalt Brent crack spread on 7/10 was - 97, a decrease of 21 from the previous day and a decrease of 59 from the interval [4]. - The asphalt Ma Rui profit on 7/10 was - 157, a decrease of 18 from the previous day and a decrease of 53 from the interval [4]. - The ordinary refinery comprehensive profit on 7/10 was 419, a decrease of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 46 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (South Korea - East China) on 7/10 was - 153, with no daily change and an increase of 12 from the interval [4]. - The import profit (Singapore - South China) on 7/10 was - 961, an increase of 2 from the previous day and a decrease of 7 from the interval [4]. Related Prices - The Brent crude oil price on 7/10 was 70.2, with no daily change and an increase of 1.4 from the interval [4]. - The gasoline market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 7831, with no daily change and an increase of 81 from the interval [4]. - The diesel market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 6788, a decrease of 23 from the previous day and a decrease of 19 from the interval [4]. - The residue oil market price in Shandong on 7/10 was 3625, an increase of 10 from the previous day and a decrease of 15 from the interval [4].
原木期货日报-20250606
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 05:07
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2: Core View - The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures market supported by the delivery cost logic. Overall, the demand for logs has entered the traditional off - season, and the outbound volume is expected to decline further. Meanwhile, due to the low ex - works prices in May, traders had a high willingness to take delivery, and it is expected that there will still be pressure on arrivals in June. The spot market is stable with a weakening trend, and the fundamental situation remains in a weak balance. Currently, the futures price is close to the phased bottom. It is recommended to mainly wait and see for single - side trading. The main contract will shift to the 09 contract this month, and investors can pay attention to the changes in the inter - month spread and participate in reverse spreads [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 decreased on June 6 compared to June 4, with declines of 1.58%, 1.29%, and 1.08% respectively. The spreads between different contracts and the basis of each contract also changed. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged. The import theoretical cost decreased slightly, and the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar also decreased slightly [2] Supply - In terms of monthly supply, the port shipping volume in April increased by 39.0 million cubic meters compared to March, a growth rate of 24.17%. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8.0, a growth rate of 13.79% [2] Inventory - The total inventory of major log ports in China decreased by 2.0 million cubic meters from May 23 to May 30, a decline of 0.58%. Inventory in Shandong decreased by 2.5 million cubic meters, a decline of 1.30%, while inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3.23% [2][3] Demand - The daily average outbound volume of logs in China increased slightly by 0.07 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 1%. In Shandong, it increased by 0.11 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 3%, while in Jiangsu, it decreased by 0.07 million cubic meters, a decline of 3% [3]
LPG早报-20250523
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-23 08:00
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG supply is expected to gradually increase, chemical demand is expected to recover, and combustion demand will continue to decline. Overall, the LPG market may continue its oscillating downward trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Daily Changes - On Thursday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong remained stable at 4490, in East China decreased by 58 to 4523, and in South China remained stable at 4840. For imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 11 to 4979, and in South China increased by 10 to 4960. The price of etherified C4 remained stable at 4740. The lowest price was Shandong civil gas at 4490. The PG futures market showed weak performance, with the basis of the 06 contract strengthening to 309, the 06 - 07 monthly spread remaining unchanged at 54, and the 07 - 09 monthly spread slightly weakening to 130. The arbitrage window from the US to the Far East is closed [1]. 3.2 Weekly Changes - Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with prices in South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong etherified C4. The center of gravity of the PG futures market moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the 06 - 07 monthly spread was 81 (-23), and the 07 - 08 monthly spread was 76 (-8). After the tariff easing, the overseas prices increased, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly rising to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargo decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - foreign price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East increased slightly, reaching 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - In terms of fundamentals, high arrival volumes and little change in demand led to inventory accumulation at ports, while factory inventories remained basically unchanged. The domestic LPG commercial volume was 504,100 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease. In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), but production margins recovered, and the PDH operating rate is expected to increase slightly next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1,100), and the profit increased significantly to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%), with the operating rate expected to increase slightly next week. Crude oil rebound pushed MTBE prices up from a decline, but due to limited supply, stable exports, manufacturers' intention to hold prices, and increased downstream resistance, MTBE prices are expected to decline slightly. In terms of combustion demand, as the temperature rises, it is expected to decline [1].
LPG早报-20250519
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-19 02:36
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic LPG market is expected to gradually increase in supply, with chemical demand expected to recover and combustion demand continuing to decline. Overall, it may continue the trend of fluctuating downward [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On Friday, for civil gas, prices in Shandong decreased by 10 to 4590, in East China decreased by 3 to 4906, and remained stable in South China at 4940; for imported gas, prices in East China decreased by 8 to 5045, and in South China decreased by 10 to 5040; etherified C4 decreased by 12 to 4520. The PG futures price declined, the basis of the 06 contract weakened to 256, the spread between 06 - 07 contracts slightly weakened to 81, and the spread between 07 - 09 contracts remained basically flat at 159. The US - Far East arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: Last week, domestic civil gas prices declined significantly, with South China at 4920 (-3.3%), East China at 4906 (-0.7%), Shandong at 4570 (-4.8%), and Shandong etherified C4 at 4520 (-5.8%). The PG futures center of gravity moved slightly downward. The basis of the 06 contract was 256 (-187), the spread between 06 - 07 contracts was 81 (-23), and the spread between 07 - 08 contracts was 76 (-8). After the tariff eased, the overseas prices rose, with MB at 407 (+23), FEI at 544 (+22.8), and CP slightly increasing to 584 (+5.5). The discount of June CP cargoes decreased by nearly half, and the FEI discount returned to single - digit positive. The domestic - overseas price difference decreased significantly. The freight rates from the US Gulf to Japan and from the Middle East to the Far East slightly increased to 117 (+7) and 65 (+7) respectively [1]. Fundamental Situation - **Supply**: High arrival volumes and little change in demand led to port inventory accumulation, while factory inventory remained basically flat. The LPG commercial volume was 50.41 tons (+4.09%), and the expected increase in commercial volume in the next three weeks is expected to decrease [1]. - **Chemical Demand**: The PDH operating rate declined to 57.98% (-1.61), and production margins recovered. It is expected that the PDH operating rate will slightly increase next week. The alkylation operating rate was 39.87% (-2.37), the commercial volume was 18,450 (-1100), and the profit significantly expanded to 267 yuan/ton (+1113%). It is expected that the operating rate will slightly increase next week. Crude oil rebound drove MTBE to stop falling and rise. With low supply, stable exports, and manufacturers' intention to support prices, but increasing downstream resistance, it is expected that MTBE will slightly decline, but the overall decline will be limited [1]. - **Combustion Demand**: With the increase in temperature, combustion demand is expected to show a downward trend [1].