债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 年末地产销售小幅探涨 ——每周高频跟踪 20251220 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅继续扩大。前期运力持续释放，煤炭产业链各环节 库存持续走高，叠加大型煤企外购价格大幅下调，引发中小煤矿、贸易商跟 风降价出货，煤炭价格持续下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格止跌回涨。主要钢材品种去库节奏维持偏快，建 材、螺纹表观需求小幅回升。 （3）沥青：开工率继续回落。沥青装置开工率环比-0.2pct 至 27.6%，同比- 0.9%。施工节奏继续放缓。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交止跌回涨。12 月 12 日-12 月 18 日，30 城新房成 交面积环比+15.4%，同比-30%，降幅收窄。年末新房销售酝酿冲刺，本周回 升斜率仍不及同期季节性。（2）二手房成交季节性上行。二手房成交面积环 比+5.3%，同比-25%，较前周开始改善，总体符合季节性、与 2023 年节奏相 近。 消费相关：12 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-24% 1、汽车：12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 76.4 万辆，同比-24%，环比 +2%。 2、原油：价格继续下跌。市场预期俄乌局势或有缓和、俄原油供应可能放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has experienced a decline in gross margin in the first three quarters of the year compared to the same period last year, primarily due to changes in product structure and industry competition, but there are signs of improvement in the second half of the year [2] Group 1 - The company's gross margin faced pressure in the second quarter but is expected to improve in the latter half of the year [2] - The company achieved a record high single-quarter revenue in the third quarter, indicating strong business growth [2] - The company is focused on expanding its business layout and increasing revenue scale as its top priority [2] Group 2 - The company anticipates further growth in its platform-based business, particularly in sectors such as automotive, AI, and industrial applications [2] - The management team, including the founder and core members, expresses confidence in the company's future business growth [2] - The company will comply with regulatory requirements regarding shareholder unlock announcements and encourages stakeholders to pay attention to future disclosures [2]

Core Viewpoint - InnoLux (02577) has seen a nearly 7% increase in stock price following the announcement of a memorandum of understanding with ON Semiconductor to explore opportunities in the GaN power device market [1] Group 1: Partnership and Market Strategy - ON Semiconductor plans to start providing samples in the first half of 2026, focusing initially on 40-200V power devices to enhance customer adoption rates [1] - The collaboration aims to integrate InnoLux's advanced GaN manufacturing capabilities with ON Semiconductor's expertise in system packaging and integration, accelerating the deployment of GaN technology in key sectors such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, data centers, and industrial applications [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The strategic partnership is expected to generate several hundred million dollars in GaN sales for InnoLux over the coming years, providing both companies with a competitive edge in market expansion within the targeted sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - InnoTech's stock price experienced significant fluctuations, with an increase of 7.21% to HKD 82.55 per share as of 10:10 AM on December 5, 2023, reaching a peak increase of nearly 8% earlier in the day [1]. Stock Performance - The stock reached a high of HKD 83.15 and a low of HKD 82.55, with a trading volume of 3.383 million shares [2]. - The average price was HKD 80.295, indicating a strong upward trend in the stock's performance [2]. Strategic Partnership - On December 3, InnoTech announced a strategic partnership with ON Semiconductor to accelerate the application and layout of Gallium Nitride (GaN) technology [3]. - The collaboration aims to integrate InnoTech's advanced GaN manufacturing capabilities with ON Semiconductor's expertise in system packaging and integration, targeting sectors such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and data centers [3]. - This partnership is expected to generate hundreds of millions of dollars in GaN sales over the coming years and provide a competitive edge in market expansion for both companies [3].

Core Viewpoint - ON Semiconductor's stock price increased by over 6.4% to $54.78 following the announcement of a strategic partnership with Innoscience to accelerate the application and layout of gallium nitride (GaN) technology [1] Group 1: Strategic Partnership - Innoscience and ON Semiconductor have formed a strategic collaboration to enhance the gallium nitride industry [1] - The partnership will integrate Innoscience's advanced GaN manufacturing capabilities with ON Semiconductor's expertise in system packaging and integration [1] - This collaboration aims to expedite the deployment of GaN technology in sectors such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, data centers, and industrial applications [1]

Economic Overview - The economic data for the first three quarters of 2025 has been released, showcasing the performance of all 31 provinces in China, revealing new economic trends and highlighting which provinces are emerging as "dark horses" [1][4]. GDP Rankings - Guangdong and Jiangsu have both surpassed the 10 trillion yuan mark, with GDPs of 105176.98 billion yuan and 102811 billion yuan respectively, while Shandong is expected to join this club soon [2][3]. - The top ten provinces all have GDPs exceeding 4 trillion yuan, with Shanghai and Hunan entering the "4 trillion club" for the first time [3]. Growth Rates - Tibet leads the nation with a growth rate of 7.1%, followed by Gansu at 6.1% and Hubei at 6% [4]. - A total of 20 provinces have growth rates exceeding 5.2%, indicating a robust economic performance across various regions [4]. Industrial and Consumption Trends - The top ten provinces account for nearly 60% of the national GDP, with eight provinces outpacing the national growth rate, driven by industrial, consumption, and foreign trade dynamics [5]. - Notable industrial growth includes Jiangsu's high-end manufacturing and Zhejiang's surge in new product supply, such as industrial robots [5]. Regional Highlights - The Yangtze River Delta region, comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui, has shown significant innovation-driven growth, contributing to 24.81% of the national GDP [5]. - The central region, including provinces like Henan, Hubei, and Hunan, is demonstrating a strong upward trend in economic performance [5]. Future Outlook - As provinces aim to meet their annual targets, there is a focus on ensuring the successful completion of the 14th Five-Year Plan while laying the groundwork for the 15th Five-Year Plan [5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both construction and building materials, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the construction sector is approaching a turning point, with expectations of narrowing year-on-year declines in revenue due to a low base in Q3 2024 [1]. - The demand for consumer building materials remains relatively stable, with retail categories showing signs of resilience despite ongoing pressures in the engineering sector [1]. - The cement and glass sectors are experiencing weak physical volumes, but there are signs of inventory and price improvements as of September [1]. - High-end demand for fiberglass is strong, leading to continuous profit improvements for companies in that segment, while carbon fiber prices remain stable, supported by wind energy demand [1]. Summary by Sections Construction Sector - In Q3 2025, local government special bond net financing is approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 2.11% from Q2 [2]. - Infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing investments have shown a year-on-year decline of 1.2%, 0.9%, and 1.1 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [2]. - Major state-owned enterprises are expected to maintain flat revenue, but the year-on-year decline may narrow due to the low base effect from Q3 2024 [2]. - Regional state-owned enterprises are expected to perform variably, with some regions like Sichuan showing profit growth [2]. Consumer Building Materials - Prices for key raw materials in Q3 2025 show mixed trends, with waterproofing and gypsum board prices increasing while others like hardware and pipes decline [3]. - The cumulative sales of commercial housing from January to August 2025 decreased by 4.7%, while the sales of second-hand homes in sample cities still showed positive growth [3]. - Retail sales in the building and decoration materials sector reached 108.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [3]. Cement and Glass - The average price of cement in Q3 2025 is 349 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 10.5% [4]. - The average price of float glass is 65 yuan per heavy box, down 13.3% year-on-year, but there is a price increase trend starting in September [4]. - The profitability of the glass sector is expected to improve year-on-year, although supply-side changes are still needed [4]. Fiberglass and Carbon Fiber - The demand for high-end electronic yarn remains strong, with profit improvements expected for fiberglass companies [5]. - The average price of carbon fiber has remained stable, with a slight year-on-year decline, but overall demand is improving, particularly in the wind energy sector [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the industry investment rating system, "Recommend" indicates that the industry index is expected to rise more than 5% above the benchmark index in the next 3 - 6 months, "Neutral" means the industry index is expected to move within -5% to 5% relative to the benchmark index in the same period, and "Avoid" suggests the industry index is expected to fall more than 5% below the benchmark index [58][62]. 2. Core Views of the Report In the fourth week of June, the real estate sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage, investment and construction demand remained weak, port container throughput increased marginally, and overall economic momentum was slightly stronger than the previous week. In terms of inflation, the decline in pork prices widened while the decline in food prices narrowed. For exports, the increase in CCFI narrowed, SCFI continued to fall, and North American route freight rates continued to decline. In industry, the operating rates mostly rebounded, coal prices rose slightly due to high - temperature weather in summer, and industrial product prices mostly continued to decline. In investment, cement demand was suppressed by rainfall and floods in the South, leading to an expanded decline in cement prices. Regarding real estate, near the end of the quarter, both new and second - hand housing sales increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. For the bond market, the year - on - year increase in port containers in June narrowed and was weaker than the performance in April - May. The "rush to export" momentum weakened marginally, and the export growth rate in June might decline. With the decline in the profit and revenue growth rates of industrial enterprises in May, the necessity of boosting domestic demand increased relatively. The bond market might enter a policy waiting period in July, focusing on the introduction of incremental policies around the Politburo meeting in July [4][39][40]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Inflation - related: Food Price Decline Narrows - The average wholesale price of pork in the country decreased by 0.33% week - on - week, and the decline widened. Vegetable prices increased by 0.1% week - on - week, while fruit prices decreased by 2.6% week - on - week. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products decreased by 0.12% and 0.14% respectively week - on - week, and the decline in food prices narrowed [10]. 3.2 Import and Export - related: SCFI Index Continues to Decline - The overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, but the freight rates of ocean routes showed differentiation. The CCFI index increased by 2.0% week - on - week, while the SCFI decreased by 0.4% week - on - week and continued to weaken. In North America, transport demand remained stable, and market freight rates continued to decline. From June 16th to 22nd, port container throughput and cargo throughput increased by 5.9% and 5.6% week - on - week respectively, ending the decline. However, the year - on - year average of single - week data since June was 2.2% and 0.8% respectively, significantly narrowing compared with May [12]. 3.3 Industry - related: Operating Rates Mostly Rebound, Coal Prices Rise Slightly - The price of thermal coal increased marginally. The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.2% week - on - week. Due to high - temperature weather, electricity consumption by residents increased, and downstream power plant loads rose significantly, leading to an increase in coal consumption. At the end of the month, production cuts in coal - producing areas increased, supply tightened, and the peak coal - using season began, driving up coal prices. - The decline in rebar prices widened. The spot price of rebar decreased by 0.73% week - on - week. In the off - season, supply increased while demand was weak, and steel prices remained weak. - Copper prices increased marginally. The average prices of Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.3% and 1.0% respectively week - on - week. The spot market was in an off - season trading situation, and downstream restocking was mainly for rigid demand, limiting the elasticity of copper prices. - The spot trading of glass was dull. The overall price remained in a weak consolidation state, and downstream enterprises mainly focused on digesting inventory [19][24]. 3.4 Investment - related: Real Estate Sales Enter the End - of - Quarter Sprint - The decline in cement prices slightly expanded. The weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 1.7% week - on - week. Construction demand was weakened by rainfall in the South and floods in some areas, and cement prices generally declined. - New home sales in 30 cities continued to rise. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 2554,000 square meters, a 41.3% week - on - week increase. Developers concentrated on launching new projects in late June, and new home sales entered the end - of - quarter sprint stage. - Second - hand housing transactions increased seasonally but were weaker than the same period last year. From June 20th to 26th, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 17 cities was 2208,000 square meters, a 5.3% week - on - week increase [28][34]. 3.5 Consumption: Supply Concerns Eased, Crude Oil Prices Declined - From June 1st to 22nd, the year - on - year increase in passenger car retail sales expanded. The year - on - year increase was 24% (the full - month year - on - year increase in May was 13%), and it increased by 8% compared with the previous month. From June 16th to 22nd, the year - on - year and week - on - week increases were 30% and 42% respectively, continuing to strengthen compared with the previous week. - Crude oil prices declined significantly. As of Friday, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices decreased by 12.0% and 11.3% respectively week - on - week. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran eased the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and market concerns about the possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz were significantly alleviated, suppressing oil prices [35].