2026年伊始，委内瑞拉局势突变没能大幅提振油价，却给黄金、白银增添了上涨动力。1月7日，纽约商 品交易所3月交割的白银期货价格收盘突破80美元整数关口；国际油价却大幅走低，纽约原油跌 2.12%，报55.916美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.06%，报60.49美元/桶。"一盎司白银贵过一桶原 油"的时代已经到来。 拉长周期看，除去负油价极端行情，上一次银比油贵，出现在约45年前。 具体看，极端行情时的银油比曾于2020年触及0.8（出现负油价）；亨特兄弟操纵白银市场期间（1979 年至1980年），银价从6美元飙升至近50美元；同期油价30—40美元/桶，银油比约1.25—1.67。亨特事 件发生之后，商品期货市场监管也有所加强，包括更严格的限仓制度（防止单一实体占用过多可交割商 品）、更高和更动态的保证金要求，以及对"实物交割与仓单"的管理加强。 近期银价超过油价，银油比在1.2—1.3区间震荡，更值得关注的是，两者的价格走势背离趋势持续。 白银从80美元/盎司的历史高点回落后反弹动能不减。且回落过程中成交量持续放大，多头资金逢低布 局的意愿强烈。 据浙商证券研究所统计分析，目前金融机构在COMEX白 ...

1月7日，国际油价大幅走低，纽约原油跌2.12%，报55.916美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.06%，报 60.49美元/桶。 此前据央视新闻报道，多家欧洲市场机构日前认为，美国对委内瑞拉实施军事打击并强行控制委内瑞拉 总统马杜罗夫妇可能加剧投资者对地缘政治不确定性的担忧，对石油市场供应和风险预期造成影响。 市场影响取决于委内瑞拉石油产量能得到多大程度的提升。 英国盐沼经济咨询公司分析师马谢尔·亚历山德罗维奇说，从贸易摩擦到中东局势，再到近期委内瑞拉 袭击事件，当前市场面临的地缘政治风险较高，正在影响市场心理和投资决策。 英国福德姆全球展望公司创始人蒂娜·福德姆认为，美国袭击委内瑞拉增加了市场不确定性，短期内市 场情绪将受到扰动。 受美国袭击委内瑞拉引发的地缘政治冲击影响，国际原油价格5日收盘上涨，黄金和白银价格当天大幅 上涨。 荷兰国际集团5日发布分析报告指出，石油市场供应将出现更多不确定性。短期影响在很大程度上取决 于委内瑞拉将出现何种权力过渡。如果过渡期漫长且混乱，短期内供应中断风险会上升。若出现平稳过 渡，且委政府更愿意与美国合作，市场可能面临更大下行压力。 多名能源分析师指出，尽管委内瑞拉拥有全 ...

Core Insights - Oil prices are set to drop significantly, with a decrease of 0.24-0.26 yuan per liter, marking the largest reduction since 2025 [3][5] - The nationwide adjustment will result in a reduction of 290 yuan per ton, effectively negating the price increase from June [3][5] - Current gasoline prices vary regionally, with 95-octane gasoline priced between 7.3-7.7 yuan per liter, highlighting disparities based on location [3][5] Price Adjustment Details - The price drop will allow car owners to save approximately 13 yuan when filling a 50-liter tank, equating to the cost of two cups of milk tea [7] - The adjustment reflects a 6.22% decrease in international oil prices, demonstrating the effectiveness of domestic price control mechanisms [5] - The next price adjustment window is anticipated on November 10, indicating a cyclical nature to oil pricing [7] Regional Price Disparities - There is a notable price difference for 98-octane gasoline, with prices in Shanghai at 9.37 yuan per liter compared to 8.09 yuan in Gansu, influenced by transportation costs and refinery distribution [5] - The upcoming price changes may alter regional price differences, which could be beneficial for cross-province travelers [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, rebounding from a two-day decline, highlights the market's "buying on dips" mentality, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][3][4]. Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced a significant rebound, with spot gold rising to $4,132.76 per ounce, marking a 1% increase in a single day, while December gold futures surged by 2% to $4,145.60 per ounce [1]. - The price drop on October 22, where gold fell to $4,054.34, was a decline of over $300 from the historical high of $4,381.21 on October 20, raising concerns about the sustainability of the gold bull market [1]. Investor Behavior - Despite the recent price drop, investors have shown a strong inclination to buy on dips, with many viewing price corrections as opportunities to enter the market [3]. - The trend of "buying on dips" has become a common strategy in the gold market, with significant inflows into gold ETFs observed throughout October [3][4]. Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors, particularly from North America and Europe, have been increasing their positions in gold ETFs, indicating a long-term bullish outlook despite short-term volatility [4][10]. - The combined efforts of retail and institutional investors provide robust support for gold prices, making it difficult for prices to experience significant declines [4]. Geopolitical Factors - Recent geopolitical developments, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, have contributed to market volatility, driving investors towards gold as a safe haven [4][6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected to enhance gold's appeal as a "safe haven" asset, particularly in light of the recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. and EU on Russia [6][10]. Economic Indicators - The release of lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data has heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point cut in November [7][8]. - Lower interest rates reduce the holding costs of gold, making it a more attractive investment option [8][9]. Central Bank Actions - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves at record levels, providing a strong foundational support for gold prices [10][11]. - A significant portion of central banks plan to continue purchasing gold, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to buy more gold in the next 12 months [10]. Future Projections - Morgan Stanley has set a target of $5,000 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026, citing stable demand and ongoing central bank purchases as key drivers [11]. - While short-term fluctuations may occur, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to persistent geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and low interest rate expectations [12][15].

Group 1 - WTI August crude oil futures rose by $0.28, an increase of nearly 0.43%, closing at $65.52 per barrel, with a cumulative decline of approximately 11.27% for the week, showing an overall L-shaped trend [1] - NYMEX August natural gas futures increased by 6.04%, priced at $3.7390 per million British thermal units, with a cumulative decline of about 5.32% for the week [1] - NYMEX July gasoline futures closed at $2.0898 per gallon, while NYMEX July heating oil futures closed at $2.3072 per gallon [1]

Group 1 - Crude oil prices in New York have dropped over 1.8%, currently reported at $71.94 per barrel [1] - At least three Iranian military aircraft have departed and landed in Oman [1] - Oman is mediating discussions between Iran and the United States regarding the nuclear agreement, as advocated by Trump [1]