ter in Read as . . 1 4 110/07 1 0 11 adas Jimle TTE 13-18-12- 4 4 e . ... 115 275 appen 1000 . . 8 型具体 I 7 i . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . w , L. . . - 26 . E "11 . . . : : : tip C .. JD .... ... ... ... 17 Sille i Pa 来自公安部的数据显示，在我国现有的3.6亿辆汽车中，新能源汽车保有量已达到3689万辆，占比10.27％，其中纯电动汽车数量为2553.9万辆。"随着电 动汽车数量的不断增加，若电动汽车不缴纳养路费，养路费收入将逐渐减少，是否还能维持道路养护？"近期，许多燃油车车主提出质疑，指出电动汽车往 往自重超过同级别燃油车，却不用缴纳养路费等税费，有失"油电同权"。其实，随着新能源汽车渗透率不断提高，"油电同权"的理念逐渐深入人心，国家发 改委在《完善交通运输价格机制的意见》中明确指出，将研究建立新能源汽车道路使用费用的合理分担机制。哪种车型应该分担，如何分担，成为行业亟待 思考的课题。 燃 ...

Group 1: New Energy Vehicle Market Performance - In November 2025, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7%, and a month-on-month increase of 6%, with a cumulative retail of 11.504 million units for the year, up 20% [1] - The wholesale of new energy vehicles in November 2025 was 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20%, and a month-on-month increase of 7%, with a cumulative wholesale of 13.777 million units for the year, up 29% [1] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the retail market was 59.8%, while the wholesale penetration rate was 57.5% in November 2025 [1] Group 2: Overall Passenger Car Market Trends - The total retail sales of passenger cars in November 2025 were 2.263 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, but a month-on-month increase of 1%, with a cumulative retail of 21.519 million units for the year, up 6% [4] - The wholesale of passenger cars in November 2025 was 2.992 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2%, and a month-on-month increase of 2%, with a cumulative wholesale of 26.766 million units for the year, up 11% [9] Group 3: Weekly Sales Performance - In the first week of November 2025, the average daily retail sales were 46,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 19% [2] - In the second week, the average daily retail sales were 67,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [3] - The average daily retail sales in the fourth week reached 126,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 2% [4] Group 4: Economic and Policy Impact - The macroeconomic environment remains stable, with consumer confidence relatively strong, but the tightening of trade-in and scrapping subsidies has led to a negative growth in retail sales in October [6] - The market has experienced a significant overshoot effect due to multiple rounds of policy subsidies earlier in the year, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [6] Group 5: Automotive Industry Profitability - From January to October 2025, the automotive industry generated a profit margin of 4.4%, which is lower than the average profit margin of 6% for downstream industrial enterprises [12] - The automotive industry’s revenue for the same period was 887.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, while costs increased by 8.7% [12] Group 6: Export Performance - In the first ten months of 2025, China exported 6.46 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 22%, with a strong performance in October, exporting 820,000 vehicles, up 40% year-on-year [17] - The export of new energy vehicles in October 2025 reached 328,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 65% [17]

Core Insights - The breakthrough of "large capacity HEV mass production" has revitalized hybrid technology (HEV), which had been overshadowed by PHEV and pure electric vehicles, making it a key focus in the automotive industry [2] - The gradual reduction of the new energy vehicle purchase tax starting in 2026 and the deepening of equal rights for oil and electricity are reshaping the automotive market landscape, positioning HEV as a competitive option due to its advantages [3][4] Policy Impact - From January 1, 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax will shift from exemption to a 50% reduction, with a maximum deduction of 15,000 yuan per vehicle, raising the technical threshold for PHEV [3] - Local governments are increasingly supportive of HEV, with cities like Guangzhou including HEV in the "energy-saving vehicle directory," providing equal exemptions as new energy vehicles, enhancing their market appeal [4] Technological Advancements - Continuous improvements in battery technology and hybrid systems have addressed previous limitations of HEV, such as short electric range and efficiency issues [6] - Predictions indicate that by 2030, HEV battery capacity could increase from 1-2 kWh to 5-8 kWh, with electric range potentially reaching 50-80 km [6] Market Dynamics - The revival of the HEV market is prompting significant strategic adjustments among automakers, with a focus on differentiated solutions for various regions and consumer needs [8] - The cost of HEV powertrains has decreased by 60% since 2018 due to localized production, narrowing the price gap with traditional fuel vehicles to within 15,000 yuan, making HEVs more accessible to mainstream consumers [9] Future Outlook - The revival of HEV is seen as a rational response to the energy transition in the automotive industry, catering to diverse consumer needs without requiring significant changes in user habits [11] - It is projected that HEV sales in China could exceed 2 million units by 2027, capturing a stable market share in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan family car segment [9]

Core Insights - The ongoing competition among automakers in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector has led to a "purchase tax subsidy war" as companies aim to capture market share before the upcoming tax policy changes in 2026 [1][2][3] Group 1: Purchase Tax Policy Changes - Starting January 1, 2026, the purchase tax for NEVs will shift from exemption to a 50% reduction, with the maximum tax reduction amount decreasing from 30,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan [1][4] - The new policy will require plug-in hybrid vehicles to have a pure electric range of at least 100 kilometers to qualify for tax exemptions, which is a significant increase from the previous requirement of 43 kilometers [2][7] Group 2: Automaker Responses - Sixteen automakers, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, and Tank, have introduced "cross-year purchase tax subsidy plans" to incentivize customers to place orders before the policy change [1][3][4] - These subsidy plans are primarily aimed at new and popular models, with companies offering to cover the tax difference for vehicles delivered in 2026 [4][5] Group 3: Market Impact and Sales Projections - The new tax policy is expected to boost NEV sales in the short term, with projections indicating that total vehicle sales in China could exceed 34 million units in 2025, an increase of 1 million from earlier estimates [6] - The impending policy changes may lead to a surge in sales of lower-range electric vehicles as automakers push to clear inventory before the new regulations take effect [2][6] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The tightening of tax exemption criteria is seen as a move towards creating a more competitive environment between NEVs and traditional fuel vehicles, promoting technological upgrades within the industry [7][9] - The new technical requirements for NEVs are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated production capacities and drive companies to enhance their research and development efforts [8][9]

Core Insights - The market share of new energy vehicles (NEVs) in China has seen significant growth, surpassing 44% in the first half of this year, with passenger vehicles reaching 51.8%, indicating a shift towards mainstream acceptance [2][3] - The NEV industry is entering a new development phase, suggesting a need for policy adjustments to address the transition from old to new energy sources [2][3] Market Performance - Global NEV sales exceeded 10 million units in the first half of the year, with a penetration rate of over 23%, and China contributed 62% of this growth [3] - In August, NEV sales in China reached 1.1 million units, with a penetration rate of 55.3%, marking a historical high [3] - For the first eight months of the year, NEV sales in China totaled 8.088 million units, a 30% year-on-year increase, with a market share of 45.5% [3] Future Projections - NEV sales in China are projected to reach approximately 15.5 million units this year, with a year-on-year growth of about 20% [4] - By the end of this year, NEV market share is expected to exceed 55%, and it may approach or exceed 80% within the next 3-5 years [4] Policy Environment - The Chinese government has implemented various supportive policies for the NEV industry, including tax exemptions and subsidies, which have significantly contributed to market growth [8][9] - The vehicle purchase tax exemption for NEVs has been extended until the end of 2027, with estimated tax exemptions exceeding 520 billion yuan from 2024 to 2027 [9] Industry Dynamics - The NEV supply chain in China has become increasingly complete, with a reported 70% completeness in the electric vehicle industry chain [5] - The call for "equal rights for oil and electricity" is growing, suggesting a need for a fair competitive environment between NEVs and traditional fuel vehicles [10][11] Recommendations for Policy Adjustment - Experts suggest that current policies should be adjusted to enhance market vitality and innovation, including a potential shortening of the tax exemption period for NEVs [11] - There is a recommendation to gradually implement "oil and electricity equality" while ensuring the continued support for NEV development [16][17]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is the adjustment of the consumption tax policy for super luxury cars, lowering the threshold to vehicles priced at 900,000 yuan (excluding VAT) and above, including various power types such as pure electric and fuel cell vehicles [2][3] - The adjustment aims to enhance the guiding role of consumption tax, targeting high-income groups to promote reasonable consumption behavior [3][5] - The previous threshold was set at 1.3 million yuan, and the new policy is expected to include more models, thereby increasing the tax base and improving consumption guidance [3][4] Group 2 - The estimated sales volume of taxable super luxury passenger cars in 2024 is around 25,000 units, accounting for less than 4% of the overall automotive consumption tax [4] - The adjustment is expected to lead to a decrease in the prices of super luxury cars, as the VAT reduction will lower the retail prices, which have already seen a decline of approximately 3.4% [4][8] - The inclusion of electric vehicles in the consumption tax framework is seen as a necessary step due to the increasing market share of new energy vehicles [7][8] Group 3 - The policy clarifies that the sale of second-hand super luxury cars will not be subject to consumption tax, addressing previous ambiguities and promoting better regulation [10] - The adjustment reflects a broader call for reform in the automotive tax structure, which has not been updated since the 1990s, to better align with current industry needs [10][11] - The reform is viewed as a starting point for further adjustments in automotive taxation, particularly concerning new energy vehicles, which currently contribute only about 15% to the overall automotive tax revenue [12]

Core Viewpoint - Audi's decision to retract its plan to stop developing and selling internal combustion engine vehicles by 2033 reflects a broader trend among traditional automakers like Mercedes and Volvo, who are also reassessing their electric vehicle strategies due to lower-than-expected market acceptance of electric vehicles [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The acceptance of electric vehicles in Europe is slower than anticipated, with pure electric passenger car registrations projected at 1.9931 million units in 2024, representing a market share of 15.4%, and only 13.6% within the EU [2]. - Traditional automakers face challenges in the electrification process, including high costs of electric vehicle development and production, profitability issues, and insufficient charging infrastructure [2]. - Audi's Brussels factory halted production of the Q8 e-tron due to poor sales, symbolizing the company's shift away from "full electrification" [2]. Group 2: Regional Considerations - Toyota's CEO highlighted that developing pure electric vehicles in Japan could lead to higher carbon emissions compared to hybrid vehicles, due to Japan's reliance on thermal power generation [2]. - The environmental impact of electric vehicles varies by region, influenced by energy production and consumption methods, as well as the resource consumption and pollution associated with battery production [2]. Group 3: China's Strategy - China's new energy vehicles (NEVs) have achieved significant market penetration, with a 50% market share in July 2024, and maintaining over 50% for five consecutive months [5]. - Government subsidies and policy support have been crucial in the early development of China's NEV industry, but there is a need to recalibrate these supports to avoid market distortions and encourage long-term healthy development [8]. - The concept of "equal rights for oil and electricity" is proposed to allow both fuel and electric vehicles to compete under the same market rules, promoting fair competition and reducing reliance on subsidies [8]. Group 4: Technological Development - Chinese automakers must not neglect the development of internal combustion engine technologies, as traditional vehicles will continue to hold a significant market share globally for the foreseeable future [9]. - Maintaining strong fuel vehicle technology can provide flexibility and options for Chinese automakers in varying market demands and policy environments, supporting sustainable development [10]. - Companies like Geely and Chery are continuing to invest in fuel vehicle technology while pursuing multiple technological pathways [9][10]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Audi's retraction of its ban on fuel vehicles presents an opportunity for Chinese automakers to reassess their development paths, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach between NEV advancements and traditional vehicle technology upgrades [11]. - The Chinese automotive industry is at a critical transition point, requiring a rational and comprehensive strategy to maintain competitiveness in the global market while avoiding isolation in electric vehicle development [11].

Core Viewpoint - The disparity in tax and fee structures between fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEVs) raises concerns about fair competition in the automotive market, with fuel vehicles bearing a heavier tax burden while NEVs benefit from significant tax exemptions [2][3][4]. Tax and Fee Disparities - Fuel vehicles incur approximately 15% higher tax costs compared to NEVs, with a 300,000 yuan fuel vehicle paying around 45,700 yuan in taxes, while NEVs are exempt from these taxes [4]. - Fuel vehicles contribute significantly to tax revenues, with 2023 tax contributions reaching over 1 trillion yuan, while NEVs continue to rely on tax incentives for growth [3][4]. Hidden Costs of Fuel Vehicles - Fuel vehicles face additional hidden costs, such as license fees and restrictions on road access, which further increase their overall cost compared to NEVs [5]. - The shift to fuel taxes from road maintenance fees has created a funding gap for road maintenance as NEVs do not contribute to fuel taxes [5]. Industry Competition and Profitability - The rapid growth of NEVs, supported by subsidies and tax benefits, has intensified competition, leading to price wars that pressure fuel vehicle manufacturers to lower prices, resulting in declining profit margins [6][9]. - The automotive manufacturing sector is experiencing a decline in profit margins, with a reported profit margin of only 3.9% in the first quarter of 2025 [6]. Calls for Equal Treatment - Industry leaders are increasingly advocating for "equal rights" between fuel and NEVs, suggesting that the current preferential treatment for NEVs is unsustainable and detrimental to the overall health of the automotive market [6][7]. - Suggestions include implementing tax equality and removing discriminatory policies against fuel vehicles to ensure fair competition [7][10]. Future Policy Directions - Experts suggest a gradual approach to achieving "equal rights," with recommendations for phased implementation over the next 3 to 5 years, focusing on market-driven solutions rather than direct subsidies [10][11]. - Current policies indicate a trend towards reducing subsidies for NEVs, with plans to cap purchase tax exemptions and potentially eliminate them by 2028 [11].

Group 1 - BMW Group has adjusted its future sales forecasts for electric models, reducing estimates for BMW and MINI brands by over 20% for some models, while increasing projections for certain gasoline vehicles [1] - Traditional automakers like Geely and Chery are also balancing their strategies between electric and gasoline vehicles, with Geely maintaining over 40% sales from gasoline vehicles and Chery achieving over 50% in 2024 [1][2] - The shift in strategy from aggressive electric vehicle targets to a more rational approach reflects the current market trend of coexistence between gasoline and electric vehicles [1] Group 2 - The gasoline vehicle market remains robust, with a penetration rate rebounding to 57.57% in Q1 2025, and regions like the Northwest showing a 68% ownership rate for gasoline vehicles [2] - The development of gasoline vehicles is supported by technological upgrades, such as Geely's CMA architecture and Changan's new high-pressure direct injection technology, which enhance fuel efficiency [3] - New regulations set to be implemented in 2025 will impose stricter safety standards on electric vehicles, increasing production costs for automakers [4] Group 3 - The call for "equal rights" for gasoline and electric vehicles is gaining traction, potentially diminishing the advantages of electric vehicles in terms of purchase incentives and road access [4] - The presence of hidden costs associated with electric vehicles and high depreciation rates for used electric cars indicate a long-term coexistence of both vehicle types in the market [4] - The industry is at a pivotal moment in 2025, questioning whether the rise of gasoline vehicles is a temporary phenomenon or a rational adjustment following the rapid growth of electric vehicles [4]

Core Viewpoint - The automotive market in China is experiencing a severe price war, leading to significant declines in stock prices and market capitalization for automotive companies, with a total market value loss of nearly 660 billion yuan, dropping to 8.8 trillion yuan [2][4]. Industry Summary - The average stock price of 88 listed Chinese automotive companies fell by 2.41% in the last trading week of May, ending a three-week rally [2]. - The profit margin for the automotive industry is projected to be only 4.3% in 2024, which is below the overall profit margin for downstream industries, and it further decreased to 3.9% in the first quarter of this year [2]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports initiatives to maintain fair competition and address the "involution" in the automotive industry, emphasizing the need for a healthy market environment [2]. Company Performance - In May, the overall performance of automotive stocks showed a narrowing of gains followed by a sharp decline, with only about 20% of automotive stocks showing positive returns [4]. - Notable gainers included Zhengtong Automotive, Jinlong Automotive, and Xiaoma Zhixing, with respective increases of 21.85%, 11.97%, and 10.63% [5]. - Zhengtong Automotive's stock surged due to a takeover offer from Xinda Automotive (Hong Kong) at a 25% premium, with the company reporting a loss of 1.529 billion yuan for the 2024 fiscal year [6][8]. Stock Price Movements - The stock price of BYD dropped by 15.56%, leading the declines among major automotive companies, with other companies like Geely and Leap Motor also experiencing significant losses [9][10]. - The market capitalization of BYD alone evaporated by over 350 billion yuan within a week, reflecting the harsh realities of the ongoing price war [10]. Market Trends - The automotive industry is facing a critical juncture, with companies needing to choose between prioritizing sales or profitability amidst fierce competition [10]. - The latest sales figures are under scrutiny, prompting companies to consider long-term strategies to withstand market pressures [10].