（来源：中国消费者报） ■本报记者 孙蔚 近日，国家统计局公布2026年1月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况，数据显示，1月份70个大中城市商品住 宅销售价格环比降幅总体收窄、同比下降。 环比来看，1月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅与上月相同。其中，上海持 平，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.6%和0.4%。二线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%， 降幅收窄0.1个百分点。三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅与上月相同。 1月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.5%，降幅比上月收窄0.4个百分点。其中，北京、上海、 广州和深圳分别下降0.2%、0.4%、0.7%和0.6%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比分别下降0.5%和 0.6%，降幅分别收窄0.2个和0.1个百分点。 业内人士预计，2026年上半年房地产政策的大方向不会发生变化，仍将以稳市场、稳预期为核心，延续 因城施策、供需两端精准发力的思路，并且政策会更关注长效作用。"一季度市场是关键，虽然1月份二 手房找房热度逆势回升，不少城市成交量持续上升，似乎市场已完成筑底，但目前稳定性仍不牢固，春 节后政策效果 ...

Group 1 - The global stock market has shown signs of recovery, with a notable rebound in the last two trading days, particularly in the US market, which rose approximately 2% last Friday [3] - The rebound in the US and European markets is attributed to two key factors: the latest economic data was not as concerning as previously feared, and investors reassessed the new Federal Reserve chairman, viewing him as potentially less hawkish than initially thought [3] - The recovery in the stock market is expected to have a stabilizing effect on the Hong Kong market, which is closely linked to overseas markets and typically exhibits a high positive correlation [3] Group 2 - The recent movements in the consumer and brokerage sectors were not detailed in the provided content, thus no specific insights can be summarized for these areas [1][4]

Group 1 - The large selling pressure from major funds has been alleviated, leading to a market recovery in February [3] - The A-share market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index regaining 4100 points and showing upward momentum [3] - The significant reduction in selling pressure is attributed to national-level measures addressing the selling from reduced holdings, indicating a potential end to large-scale sell-offs [3] Group 2 - The trading volume of the CSI 300 ETF has dropped to around 2%, suggesting that major funds are no longer selling [3] - The sustained low turnover rate of the CSI 300 ETF reflects a stable and sustainable market condition [3] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday and the National People's Congress are expected to limit the likelihood of new large-scale sell-offs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is gradually stabilizing after previous adjustments, with opportunities for structural recovery in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear fundamentals or expectations [1][6] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Fund Behavior - The wide-based ETF is facing redemption pressure, indicating that institutional funds have not significantly increased their allocation to index-weighted sectors [3] - Market risk appetite has not broadly increased but shows clear structural differentiation, with funds favoring sectors with valuation recovery potential rather than simply returning to blue-chip stocks [3][4] - The consumption chain is identified as a clear allocation direction, with the period leading up to the "Two Sessions" being a critical window for increasing exposure to this sector [4][5] Group 2: Sector Analysis - The consumption chain's performance is not a broad-based rally but exhibits structural characteristics, with some sectors having already recovered valuations and being sensitive to short-term data [4] - The real estate chain is also gaining attention, with some sectors becoming desensitized to new construction data, shifting focus to policy support and industry clearing processes [4][5] - Historical trends suggest that the recovery in the real estate chain typically progresses from downstream to upstream, with current strength in building materials driven by valuation recovery and expectation improvement rather than a comprehensive demand rebound [4][6] Group 3: Strategic Insights - Current market conditions present opportunities, particularly in sectors that are relatively undervalued and have clear logic, which are more likely to achieve excess returns during fund rotation [5] - The period around the "Two Sessions" remains a significant window for policy and expectation, with active trading around macro goals and industry policy directions [5][6] - The transition from "emotional recovery" to "structural validation" is crucial, with the consumption and building materials sectors forming key components of the current market narrative [6]

Core Viewpoint - The new real estate policy in Beijing has led to a significant increase in second-hand housing transaction volumes and improved conversion rates for quality new homes, although regional and project differentiation remains evident [1][2][4]. Market Performance Post-New Policy - Following the implementation of the new policy on December 24, 2025, the transaction volume for second-hand homes increased by 33% from the previous month [2]. - Market activity indicators such as new customer inquiries and property viewings rose by 14% and 18%, respectively, during the same period [2]. - The average daily registration of new residential properties reached 96 units, marking a 4.3% increase compared to the pre-policy period [2]. Factors Contributing to Market Improvement - Improved market expectations due to the recent policy changes have positively influenced the market sentiment [3]. - The new policy has led to a concentration of signings, with its long-term effects expected to gradually manifest [3]. - Seasonal trends typically see a natural market recovery in the first quarter, further supported by the timing of the upcoming Spring Festival [3]. Buyer Behavior and Market Dynamics - First-time buyers are currently the dominant force in the market, driven by year-end bonuses and the typical seasonal uptick in demand [3]. - The market is showing a preference for entry-level housing, particularly in suburban areas and secondary centers [3]. - The overall market is characterized as a buyer's market, with both buyers and sellers exhibiting more rational attitudes towards pricing [4]. Structural Differentiation in the Market - There is a notable structural differentiation in market performance, with premium projects in core areas benefiting significantly from the new policy, while suburban and non-core projects show weaker performance [4]. - The number of second-hand residential listings has decreased, indicating a stabilization in seller expectations and early signs of market bottoming [4]. Overall Market Outlook - In 2025, second-hand homes accounted for 81% of total residential transactions in Beijing, with a significant portion of sales concentrated in properties priced below 3 million yuan [5]. - The market is expected to continue its slow recovery, with ongoing structural inventory pressures and a potential for improved demand as policies remain supportive [6]. - The differentiation between new and second-hand homes is becoming more pronounced, with new homes targeting higher-end buyers while second-hand homes are trending towards lower price points [6].

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing's real estate market have led to a significant increase in transaction volumes and market activity, particularly in the second-hand housing sector, although regional and project-level disparities remain evident [1][2][4]. Policy Changes - The new policies include lowering social security requirements, supporting multi-child families in purchasing additional homes, eliminating distinctions between first and second home mortgage rates, reducing down payment ratios for public housing loans, and optimizing the business environment [2][3]. Market Performance - After one month of the new policy implementation, the transaction volume for second-hand homes increased by 33% compared to the previous month, with new customer inquiries and property viewings rising by 14% and 18%, respectively [2][3]. - The average daily registration of new residential properties reached 96 units, marking a 4.3% increase from the period before the policy change [2]. Market Dynamics - The warming market is attributed to improved market expectations, concentrated signing of contracts post-policy, and seasonal trends that typically see a natural uptick in activity during the first quarter [3][4]. - First-time buyers are currently the dominant force in the market, with a notable preference for entry-level housing, particularly in suburban areas and secondary centers [3][4]. Regional Disparities - There is a structural differentiation in market performance, with premium projects in core areas benefiting significantly from the new policies, while suburban and non-core projects show relatively flat performance [4][5]. - The number of second-hand residential listings has decreased, indicating a stabilization of owner expectations and early signs of market bottoming [4]. Future Outlook - The overall market is expected to continue its slow recovery, with second-hand homes dominating the market, accounting for 81% of total transactions in 2025 [5][6]. - The market is characterized by a significant divide between new and second-hand homes, with new properties targeting higher-end buyers while second-hand homes are trending towards lower price points [5][6]. - The policy environment is anticipated to remain supportive, with ongoing adjustments in purchasing qualifications and financial support, which may gradually improve market demand expectations [6].

- The report predicts the dividend points for the next year for the CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 indices as 83.74, 84.59, 66.18, and 63.72, respectively[9][10][11][12] - The dividend points for the current month contracts IC2512, IF2512, IH2512, and IM2512 are estimated at 0.69, 1.28, 0.54, and 0.67, respectively[9][10][11][12] - The dividend points for the next month contracts IC2601, IF2601, IH2601, and IM2601 are estimated at 0.69, 1.28, 0.54, and 0.67, respectively[9][10][11][12] - The dividend points for the current season contracts IC2603, IF2603, IH2603, and IM2603 are estimated at 0.69, 1.28, 0.54, and 0.67, respectively[9][10][11][12] - The dividend points for the next season contracts IC2606, IF2606, IH2606, and IM2606 are estimated at 50.04, 27.67, 14.96, and 41.08, respectively[9][10][11][12] - The annualized basis for the IC, IF, IH, and IM contracts after dividend adjustment are -9.03%, -3.52%, -1.52%, and -11.81%, respectively[4][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45] - The continuous hedging strategy for the CSI 500 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of -3.38%, volatility of 3.81%, maximum drawdown of -11.02%, and net value of 0.8911[46][47][48][49][50] - The minimum discount strategy for the CSI 500 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of -1.89%, volatility of 4.52%, maximum drawdown of -8.53%, and net value of 0.9378[46][47][48][49][50] - The continuous hedging strategy for the CSI 300 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of 0.37%, volatility of 2.90%, maximum drawdown of -3.95%, and net value of 1.0124[51][52][53][54][55] - The minimum discount strategy for the CSI 300 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of 1.10%, volatility of 3.02%, maximum drawdown of -4.06%, and net value of 1.0374[51][52][53][54][55] - The continuous hedging strategy for the SSE 50 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of 1.06%, volatility of 2.97%, maximum drawdown of -4.22%, and net value of 1.0360[56][57][58][59] - The minimum discount strategy for the SSE 50 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of 1.67%, volatility of 2.99%, maximum drawdown of -3.91%, and net value of 1.0573[56][57][58][59] - The continuous hedging strategy for the CSI 1000 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of -6.42%, volatility of 4.74%, maximum drawdown of -14.00%, and net value of 0.8327[60][61][62][63] - The minimum discount strategy for the CSI 1000 index futures from July 22, 2022, to December 5, 2025, shows an annualized return of -4.37%, volatility of 5.51%, maximum drawdown of -11.11%, and net value of 0.8700[60][61][62][63] - The Cinda-VIX indices for the 30-day period for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 15.95, 16.61, 23.09, and 20.50, respectively[64][65][66][67][68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79] - The Cinda-SKEW indices for SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are 104.35, 106.49, 101.91, and 106.75, respectively[74][75][76][77][78][79][80]

盘面回顾：指数窄幅震荡，个股和板块表现分化。周二全天指数窄幅震荡，临近尾盘沪指收红，但 大部分中小市值宽基指数仍以绿盘报收。交易金额为1.07 万亿，较周一萎缩。周二 31 个一级行业表现 分化，领涨板块是美容护理、银行、家用电器、纺织服饰、传媒等。领跌板块是国防军工、商贸零售、 电子、钢铁、社会服务等。 风险提示：关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预 期，政策执行不及预期等。 周二指数窄幅波动，市场观望情绪加大。周二 A 股全天窄幅波动，波幅仅 22 个指数点，显示在经 历了连续 5 个交易日的上涨后，市场观望情绪开始加大，追涨意愿下降。从中期角度来看，在中央汇金 等三家国资开始增持，叠加多家上市公司宣布回购增持后，市场已经迎来拐点。尽管"对等关税"的后续 影响还存在一定不确定性，但市场交易开始克服恐慌心理，指数在波折中继续修复行情。 后市展望：关税事件的冲击最高峰已经过去，A 股将在波折中继续修复。4 月 7 日的极端下跌是对 近期所谓"对等关税"事件的一次性反映，随着市场情绪逐渐平稳和以中央汇金为代表的国资以及多家上 市公司宣布回购增持后，目前 A 股已经进入修复性 ...