1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is almost certain, and the transition from the traditional consumption off - season to the peak season supports copper prices. With the expectation of the domestic traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season and the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and mainly lay out long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper [1][3]. - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spreads are all positive and within a reasonable range. Due to the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, the increase in the domestic electrolytic copper maintenance capacity in September, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning to the peak season, but the continuous accumulation of the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the basis and monthly spreads of Shanghai copper [7]. - The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level, and the ratio of Shanghai - LME copper price is between the 50 - 75% quantiles of the past five years. Considering factors such as Trump's import tariffs suppressing potential demand, the continuous accumulation of LME and COMEX electrolytic copper inventories, the Fed's September rate - cut expectation, and the continuous tight supply - demand expectation of global copper concentrates, it is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for the arbitrage opportunities of the spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Aspect - Import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, leading to an increase in the US PPI annual rate in July and the core CPI annual rate in the consumer sector. Fed Chairman Powell said that the change in the risk balance point may require policy adjustment due to the weak supply and demand in employment, which has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. However, attention should still be paid to the new non - farm payrolls in the US in August and the consumer price index CPI on September 5th and 11th [2]. Upstream Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: Newmont's Canadian Red Chris copper mine suspended operations due to a collapse accident, and Russia's Nornickel lowered its copper production forecast for 2025. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in the domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in September. The domestic copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week. The copper concentrate out - port (in - port, inventory) volume of world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, increased) compared with last week. The domestic copper concentrate import volume in September may increase month - on - month [2][22][23]. - **Scrap Copper**: The negative spread between domestic electrolytic copper and bright and aged scrap copper may weaken the economy of scrap copper. The scrap copper import window is gradually opening, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic scrap copper production (import) volume in September, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [2][30]. - **Blister Copper**: The second rotary anode furnace of the pyrometallurgical system of the Yunnan Zhongyou non - ferrous scrap copper resource recycling base produced anode copper in early July, and the No. 1 smelting furnace of Jiangxi Keli Copper Industry's first - phase 150,000 - ton anode plate project was ignited on August 11th. The weekly processing fees for blister copper in northern (southern) China have decreased. The domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in September may increase month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in the domestic blister copper production (import) volume in September [2][33]. - **Electrolytic Copper**: The domestic electrolytic copper production volume in September may decrease month - on - month. However, due to the expected production of new projects in the future, the import volume of domestic electrolytic copper in September may increase month - on - month [37][40]. Downstream Aspect - **Copper Products Enterprises**: The capacity utilization rate of domestic copper products enterprises in September may increase month - on - month. Specifically, the capacity utilization rate of electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper enameled wires, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [46][48]. - **Copper Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of refined (recycled) copper rods has decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises in September may increase month - on - month [50][52][54]. - **Copper Wires and Cables**: The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper wires and cables in September may increase month - on - month [62][63][65]. - **Copper Enameled Wires**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of copper enameled wires has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper enameled wire enterprises have decreased (increased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper enameled wires in September may increase month - on - month [68][69][71]. - **Copper Strips**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of copper strips has decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper strips in September may increase month - on - month [75][77][79]. - **Copper Foils**: The capacity utilization rate of copper foils in September may increase month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of electronic circuit (lithium - ion) copper foils in September may decrease (increase) month - on - month [82][83][84]. - **Copper Tubes**: The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of copper tubes in September may decrease month - on - month [87][88][89]. - **Brass Rods**: The capacity utilization rate of brass rods has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have increased (decreased) compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of brass rods in September may increase month - on - month [93][94][95]. Inventory Aspect - The inventory of Shanghai copper has increased, and the inventory of LME copper has also increased. The inventory of COMEX copper has increased, and the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions has decreased [15][17][19]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in Chinese ports has increased, and the copper concentrate import index is negative and has decreased compared with last week [20][22]. - The inventory of scrap copper in September may decrease, and the supply - demand expectation is tight [30]. - The inventory of blister copper in September may decrease, and the import volume may increase [33]. - The inventory of electrolytic copper in September may increase due to the increase in import volume, although the production volume may decrease [37][40]. Market Structure Aspect - The basis of Shanghai copper is positive, and the monthly spreads are all positive, both within a reasonable range. The spreads of LME copper (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are negative and at a relatively low level. The spreads between COMEX copper, LME copper, and Shanghai copper are all within a reasonable range [7][8][11]. - The closing prices of near - and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper show a Back structure, while those of COMEX copper show a Contango structure [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,410, up 480 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,061 lots, down 2,342; the open interest was 173,826 lots, up 4,829; the inventory was 21,412 tons, up 180 [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,902, up 84 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 158,900 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.5445, down 0.00 from the previous day; the total inventory was 275,226, up 3,121 [2]. Industry Information - **Production and Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Due to the impact of changes in waste copper collection, the supply of waste copper will significantly decrease in September, and the output of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from waste copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production will drop significantly by 5.25 tons in September and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating - ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale production [2]. Industry Operation - **Copper Rod**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared with last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper enameled wire decreased (dropped) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese enameled wire enterprises decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese copper plate and strip decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) [2]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tubes may decrease month - on - month in September, as the total air - conditioning and heat - pump volume is expected to be lower than last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US [2]. Investment Strategy - **Trading Suggestion**: Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, and there is an expectation of a shift from the traditional domestic consumption off - season to the peak season. The global total inventory of electrolytic copper is initially showing a decline, which may cause the price of Shanghai copper to fluctuate upward. It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low prices, pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 27, 2025, the closing price of the active Shanghai copper futures contract was 79,190, with no change from the previous day. The trading volume decreased by 11,007 hands to 57,818 hands, and the open interest decreased by 491 hands to 174,997 hands. The inventory decreased by 1,630 tons to 21,287 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,545, down 40 from the previous day [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The factory - outside electrolytic copper spot premium remained at 65, while the North China electrolytic copper spot discount widened by 20 to - 90, and the East China electrolytic copper spot premium increased by 40 to 50 [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between Shanghai copper near - month and Shanghai copper continuous - one decreased by 50 to - 10, the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - one and Shanghai copper continuous - two decreased by 10 to 0, and the spread between Shanghai copper continuous - two and Shanghai copper continuous - three increased by 30 to 50 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 27, 2025, was 9,755.5, down 81.5 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 156,100 to 0. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread decreased by 5.11 to - 89.93, and the 3 - 15 - month contract spread decreased by 15.4 to - 169.57 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active COMEX copper futures contract on August 27, 2025, was 4.5005, up 0.04 from the previous day. The total inventory increased by 1,267 to 273,767 [2]. Important Information - Aurubis AG and Troilus Gold signed a copper concentrate purchase memorandum, with Troilus Gold expected to supply about 75,000 tons of physical copper - gold concentrate to Aurubis AG annually [2]. - European high - quality scrap steel export restrictions, Sino - US tariff negotiation uncertainties, negative price differences between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper, and the closure of the scrap copper import window have affected the scrap copper market. Some copper smelters have suspended production, while others are under construction or planned to be put into production [2]. Investment Strategy - The production capacity of domestic smelters' rough copper in August may decrease month - on - month, while the production and import volume of refined copper may increase. The production of domestic electrolytic copper in August may decrease, but the opening of the import window may increase the import volume of electrolytic copper. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area and social inventory decreased, while the inventory in the LME and COMEX increased [2]. - It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract at low prices, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's pressure or potential dismissal of Fed officials strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the expectation of the traditional consumption off - season turning into the peak season may lead to a relatively strong and volatile aluminum price [1]. - For alumina, the rise in domestic and imported bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the supply - demand expectation remains loose, limiting the upside space for alumina prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China, along with low social inventories, may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. For aluminum alloy, the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price [2][3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Alumina - **Supply - demand situation**: The revocation of bauxite mining licenses in Guinea and the start of domestic bauxite recycling projects may increase domestic bauxite production and imports in August, with a loose supply - demand expectation. New alumina production capacity projects in China may increase domestic alumina production in August, and the matching surplus of alumina over electrolytic aluminum's operating capacity in July has expanded. The trial production of the Indonesian project of Nanshan Aluminum and the closure of the import window may reduce imports and increase exports of alumina in August, leading to a decrease in port inventories [2]. - **Price analysis**: The increase in bauxite prices pushes up production costs, but the loose supply - demand expectation limits the upside space for alumina prices. The alumina basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the contango structure of the futures contracts is due to the increase in production costs and the expectation of loose supply [2][11][25]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support level around 3000 - 3100 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [2]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - demand situation**: The restart of electrolytic aluminum projects in China may increase domestic production in August. The recovery of production capacity in overseas electrolytic aluminum plants may increase imports in August. The capacity utilization rate of downstream leading processing enterprises has increased, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum has increased but remains at a low level [3][47]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season in China may cause the Shanghai aluminum price to be cautiously strong. The Shanghai aluminum basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the LME aluminum spreads show different positive and negative situations, all within reasonable ranges [3][40][43]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go long on the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Supply - demand situation**: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China is decreasing. However, the positive spread between refined and scrap aluminum in China may decrease domestic scrap aluminum production and increase imports in August. The production of primary and recycled aluminum alloys may increase in August, and the import and export of unforged aluminum alloys may decrease [5][72][85]. - **Price analysis**: The expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and tight scrap aluminum supply may lead to a cautiously strong aluminum alloy price. The basis and spreads of cast aluminum alloy are positive and within reasonable ranges, and the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level [5][68][71]. - **Investment strategy**: It is recommended that investors go short on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels. Also, wait and see for basis and spread arbitrage opportunities [5][68][71]. Downstream Enterprises - The capacity utilization rate of China's leading aluminum downstream processing enterprises has increased compared with last week, mainly due to the expectation of an interest rate cut by the Fed in September and the transition from the off - season to the peak season [97][99]. - Among them, the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, aluminum sheets, and aluminum foils have increased, while the capacity utilization rate of aluminum profiles has remained flat [101][103].