Report Industry Investment Ratings - Rebar: ★★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ (indicating a bias towards a long position, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market) [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The steel market is gradually stabilizing after continuous adjustments, with costs providing support, but short-term fluctuations remain, and attention should be paid to the improvement in building material demand during the peak season [2]. - Iron ore is expected to mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. - Coke and coking coal prices are strongly oscillating, affected by the policy expectations of "anti-involution" and market sentiment, with large price volatility [4][5]. - Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north and the continuity of "anti-involution" policies [6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The rebar's apparent demand and production continued to decline this week, with inventory accumulating, while the demand for hot-rolled coils significantly recovered, production increased, and inventory slightly decreased [2]. - The blast furnace is rapidly resuming production, with a significant increase in molten iron production, and the negative feedback pressure has eased, but the poor profit from steel stocking restricts further resumption of production [2]. - The real estate investment continued to decline significantly, the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing gradually slowed down, domestic demand remained weak overall, and steel exports remained at a high level [2]. - After continuous adjustments, the pressure on the market has been gradually released, the cost support at the bottom has strengthened, and the market has stabilized in fluctuations, but there may still be short-term fluctuations [2]. Iron Ore - On the supply side, global shipments have declined, domestic arrivals have slightly decreased, and port inventories have stabilized and increased, with no significant pressure on inventory accumulation in the short term [3]. - On the demand side, terminal demand has slightly recovered, steel mill profitability is at a low level, molten iron production has returned to a high level this week, and there is still support for iron ore demand in the short term, with steel mills having a certain demand for pre-holiday restocking in the next two weeks [3]. - Domestic policy benefits are yet to be released, and the market speculation sentiment still exists in the short term. It is expected that iron ore will mainly trade in a high-range oscillation [3]. Coke - The price was strongly oscillating during the day. The second round of price cuts for coking is in progress, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [4]. - Coking profits are acceptable, and daily coking production has slightly decreased. The overall coke inventory has increased, and the purchasing willingness of traders has decreased [4]. - The supply of carbon elements remains abundant, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery in downstream molten iron production. Affected by events, the short-term decline was significant, and the market sentiment still anticipates coal overproduction inspections [4]. Coking Coal - The price was strongly oscillating during the day, and attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of molten iron production [5]. - Affected by the parade, the production of coking coal mines has increased month-on-month. The spot auction transactions have slightly weakened, the transaction price has declined following the market, and the terminal inventory has slightly decreased [5]. - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month-on-month, the production-side inventory has continued to slightly increase, and the previous shutdowns of coking coal have gradually resumed [5]. Silicomanganese - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current moving average price at 5,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [6]. - The weekly production of silicomanganese has continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory has not yet accumulated, with good market demand [6]. - The long-term quotation of manganese ore has slightly increased month-on-month, and the spot ore price has decreased this week. After a significant rebound in the market, it is expected that the spot manganese ore price will mainly rise [6]. Ferrosilicon - The price oscillated during the day. Attention should be paid to the tender pricing of a large steel mill in the north, with the current inquiry price at 5,700 yuan/ton [7]. - The short-term decline in molten iron production has a relatively small impact on the overall demand, and there is an expectation of a gradual recovery later [7]. - Export demand remains at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal has slightly decreased month-on-month, and the demand has slightly declined marginally, but the overall demand is still acceptable [7]. - The supply of ferrosilicon has continued to significantly increase, the market's forward-looking demand is good, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has slightly decreased [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ (representing a clearer long trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Hot Roll: ★★★ [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Report's Core View - The overall situation of the steel - related futures market is complex. The terminal demand is weak, the market sentiment is cautious, and the futures prices of various varieties are under different pressures and trends. Some varieties are expected to be volatile, and the market is affected by factors such as production limits, demand changes, and policy expectations [2][3][4] Summary According to Related Catalogs Steel - Today's steel futures prices declined. Thread's apparent demand increased, production decreased, and inventory continued to rise. Hot - roll demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron - water production remained high, and the market faced negative feedback pressure, but the overall inventory level was low. With the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - limit intensity in Tangshan and other places. The downstream demand was weak, and the market was short - term under pressure [2] Iron Ore - Today's iron - ore futures prices weakened. Global shipments declined from the high level but were still stronger than the same period last year. Domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory increased slightly last week, with a short - term small inventory - accumulation trend expected. On the demand side, there was a conversion between peak and off - peak seasons for terminal demand, iron - water production remained high, steel - mill profitability weakened, and there were production - reduction expectations around the parade. Overall, the supply - demand of iron ore weakened marginally, and it was expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] Coke - The intraday coke price declined. With the approaching major event, there were new production - limit expectations for coking plants in East China. Iron - water daily output increased, steel - making profit remained high, the seventh round of coke price adjustment was fully implemented, and coking daily output increased slightly. Coke inventory increased slightly, and traders' purchasing willingness declined. The coke price was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and had high short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The intraday coking - coal price declined. The output of coking coal mines decreased, spot auction transactions weakened, and the transaction price followed the futures price down. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total coking - coal inventory increased month - on - month, and production - end inventory was likely to continue to increase in the short term. The price was affected by the "anti - involution" policy and had high short - term volatility [6] Silicomanganese - The intraday silicomanganese price fluctuated weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. On the demand side, iron - water production remained above 240. Silicomanganese weekly output continued to increase, and the inventory did not accumulate. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly this week, but due to the approaching major event, manufacturers stocked up in advance, and the price had limited downside space. In the long - term, manganese ore was expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Ferrosilicon - The intraday ferrosilicon price fluctuated weakly. Iron - water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The production of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month. The overall demand was okay, supply increased significantly, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Ferrosilicon mainly followed the trend of silicomanganese [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, showing a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★, with unclear implications from the given star description [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend due to positive market sentiment and strong furnace material prices, despite weak domestic demand [2] - The iron ore market is likely to oscillate at a high level as its fundamental contradictions are limited, with improved market sentiment and short - term reduced uncertainty [3] - The coke and coking coal markets have their prices affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility and relatively limited downward space [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets' prices are influenced by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the pressure near previous highs [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread steel: Surface demand and production increased, inventory continued to accumulate. Hot - rolled coil: Surface demand significantly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Iron water production declined moderately but remained high. Market negative feedback pressure is low. Domestic demand is weak, and exports are relatively high. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger short - term trend [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments decreased slightly month - on - month but were stronger year - on - year. Domestic arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories stabilized and increased. Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and blast furnace iron water decreased slightly. Steel mills have high profit ratios and limited motivation to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Coke - Due to approaching major events, there are expectations of production restrictions in East China coking plants. The sixth round of price increases is proposed. Profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Inventory decreased, and traders' purchasing willingness is good. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [4] Coking Coal - The market has high expectations for coal over - production inspections. Mine production decreased, and the spot auction market improved. Total inventory decreased, and production - end inventory decreased significantly. Prices are affected by policy expectations, with increased short - term volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - Iron water production remained high. Weekly production increased, but the rate was lower than expected. Manganese ore prices increased slightly. The market is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. Prices are affected by policy expectations [7] Ferrosilicon - Iron water production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand was about 30,000 tons. Supply increased significantly, and inventory increased slightly. Prices follow the silicon manganese trend and are affected by policy expectations [8]

| | | | 11/11/11/2 | SDIC FUTURES | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月11日 | | 螺纹 | ★☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | ★☆★ | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ★☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | ★☆☆ | | | 鐵硅 | ★☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | ★☆☆ | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面震荡走强。螺纹表需、产量均有所上升，库存继续累积。热卷表需明显回落，产量也有所下滑，库存继续累积。铁水 产量温和回落，整体维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注后期唐山等地限产力度。从下游行业看，地产投资 继续大幅下滑，基建增速放缓，制造业景气程度放 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in industrial silicon and polysilicon futures is primarily driven by fundamental news and the strong performance of coking coal, influenced by government policies regarding coal production [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 6, industrial silicon futures (SI2511) closed at 8,700 CNY/ton, up 3.63%, while polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 51,345 CNY/ton, up 3.23% [1]. - The rebound in polysilicon prices is attributed to the recovery of production profits, with current prices exceeding the cost range by 10% [2]. - Industrial silicon is experiencing a dual increase in supply and demand, with weekly production exceeding 78,000 tons and a notable increase in demand from downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Production Insights - Domestic polysilicon production in July was approximately 107,800 tons, with a weekly production increase of 4% [3]. - The supply situation is characterized by a significant reduction in operating rates in the southwestern region, while the focus shifts to the northwest region, where production capacity may increase [2]. - The production cost of industrial silicon is significantly impacted by coal prices, as producing one ton requires about 12,000 kWh of electricity, while polysilicon production requires about 50,000 kWh [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the market for industrial silicon may not see significant capacity clearing, prices are expected to gradually rise due to the overall commodity market trends and potential increases in raw material costs [3]. - The pricing mechanism for polysilicon is currently influenced more by policies and expectations rather than fundamental factors, indicating a potential for price fluctuations in the near term [4].