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蜜雪集团(02097.HK):茶饮标杆 未来增长点在哪儿?
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-17 12:12
Company Overview - The company, established for 28 years, is a leading fresh beverage enterprise with two brands: "Mixue Ice City" and "Lucky Coffee," and has incubated the "Snow King" IP. It primarily generates revenue through a franchise model, selling store materials and equipment to franchisees. By the end of 2024, the total number of stores is expected to reach 46,479, with stable performance growth and improving profitability, ranking first in China and second globally in terms of cup output [1] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale end-to-end supply chain system, which includes global procurement networks, long-term partnerships with upstream suppliers, and cooperative planting bases to control supply costs and ensure quality. It operates five production bases and over 60 intelligent production lines, along with a self-operated warehousing and distribution system, with 54% of fundraising allocated to enhancing the supply chain in China [1] Industry Analysis - Emerging and affordable markets are experiencing faster growth. The Chinese and Southeast Asian markets show significant growth potential. In the domestic market, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the affordable market is projected to be 22.2% from 2023 to 2028, outpacing mid-priced and high-priced markets, aligning with the company's development positioning and indicating substantial growth potential [1] Future Growth Points - Future growth point one: "Mixue Ice City" is expected to densify its domestic market. Mid-term projections suggest an expansion potential of 11,000 to 18,000 additional stores based on three scenarios (pessimistic, neutral, optimistic) [2] - Future growth point two: "Lucky Coffee" is set to expand through franchising. By June 2025, provinces like Henan (1,127 stores), Hebei (413 stores), and Shandong (411 stores) are expected to see a potential increase of 9,000 to 17,000 stores, considering only store density improvements [2] - Future growth point three: The Southeast Asian market is anticipated to continue expanding, with a projected CAGR of 19.8% from 2023 to 2028. The market is highly fragmented with low chain rates, and "Mixue Ice City" is the largest fresh tea beverage brand in Southeast Asia. 12% of fundraising is allocated to enhancing the overseas supply chain to support international business expansion [3] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are estimated at 32.694 billion, 37.823 billion, and 43.037 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 31.7%, 15.7%, and 13.8% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 5.861 billion, 6.781 billion, and 7.716 billion, with growth rates of 32.1%, 15.7%, and 13.8%. Corresponding PE valuations are 24x, 20.7x, and 18.2x, with an initial coverage rating of "Buy-A" [3]
山西证券研究早观点-20250917
Shanxi Securities· 2025-09-17 00:45
Market Trends - The domestic textile and apparel export from January to August 2025 saw a 1.6% increase in yarn, fabric, and products, while clothing and accessories experienced a 1.7% decline [3] - Major Taiwanese textile manufacturers reported a general revenue decline in August 2025, with specific companies like Yuanyuan Group and Fengtai Enterprises showing declines of 9.7% and 3.66% respectively [3][4] Company Analysis - **博威合金 (601137.SH)**: In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 10.22 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase year-on-year, with net profit reaching 680 million yuan, up 6.0% [7] - **蜜雪集团 (02097.HK)**: The company is projected to have EPS of 1.82, 1.94, and 2.38 for 2025-2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 13.5, 12.7, and 10.3, indicating a "Buy-A" rating [10][11] - **汉得信息 (300170.SZ)**: The company reported a revenue of 15.75 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 3.54% increase, with net profit slightly up by 1.90% [21][23] Industry Insights - The textile manufacturing sector is experiencing cautious order placements due to tariff disturbances, with companies like Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. showing strong performance certainty for the year [4][5] - The REITs market in China is expanding, with 68 listed REITs and a total market value of 205.5 billion yuan as of H1 2025, indicating significant growth potential [14][16] Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, brands like 361 Degrees and Anta Sports are recommended due to their strong online growth and effective cost management [4][5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies such as Shenzhou International and Kairun Co. are highlighted for their stable performance and low valuations [5] - In the gold and jewelry retail sector, companies like Laopuyin and Chaohongji are recommended due to the rising gold prices and upcoming consumption peaks [5]
2025年第35周:跨境出海周度市场观察
艾瑞咨询· 2025-09-11 00:03
Group 1 - Amazon released the "Top 50 Innovative Brands for 2025" in cross-border e-commerce, projecting a 16.9% year-on-year growth in China's cross-border e-commerce export scale to 2.15 trillion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in high-tech products [3][4] - The Middle East is identified as a prime market for Chinese companies looking to expand overseas, with retail spending expected to reach $300 billion and a rapidly growing e-commerce market potentially exceeding $1 trillion [5] - The Chinese micro-short drama industry is accelerating its overseas expansion, with the market size expected to surpass 50 billion yuan in 2024, focusing on cultural elements and diverse content to enhance competitiveness [6] Group 2 - A "Robot Outbound Cooperation Network" was officially launched in Beijing, aimed at promoting the international development of China's robotics industry through strategic partnerships [7] - Southeast Asia's e-commerce market has seen explosive growth, with sales increasing from $4 billion in 2012 to $184 billion in 2024, driven by Chinese companies leveraging supply chain advantages [8] - The rise of a new generation in cross-border e-commerce is reshaping global business, with emotional value and technology becoming core competitive elements [9] Group 3 - Localization in research and development is becoming a key strategy for Chinese brands going overseas, with companies adapting products to meet local demands and enhancing market fit [10] - The global popularity of Chinese metaphysics and feng shui is growing, with a projected market size of $48.7 billion by 2024, driven by emotional consumer needs [12] - Chinese service and logistics robot companies are successfully entering the Japanese market by optimizing technology and localizing strategies [13] Group 4 - Chinese brands are rapidly expanding internationally, transitioning from OEM production to independent innovation, with significant sales growth in Europe and other markets [14] - The new tea beverage sector is emerging as a global force, particularly in Southeast Asia, but faces challenges such as supply chain vulnerabilities and cultural differences [15] - Over 20 Chinese beauty brands have accelerated their overseas sales through Alibaba's AliExpress, with significant growth in markets like Europe and Mexico [17] Group 5 - Chinese companies are entering a new wave of "innovative outbound" strategies, with over 2,000 companies targeting 96 countries, integrating local resources and capabilities [18] - Great Wall Motors has completed its factory in Brazil, enhancing its local service and production capabilities to support its global strategy [20] - AliExpress reports a doubling of sales for Chinese beauty brands in the past year, with a focus on integrating influencer marketing and comprehensive solutions for market entry [21] Group 6 - Meituan's Keeta is rapidly expanding into the Middle East, achieving a 10% market share in Saudi Arabia within five months and planning further regional growth [22] - Reading Group's revenue from IP operations has shown strong growth, with a 68.5% increase in net profit, driven by successful adaptations of popular content [23] - Cainiao is transforming into a global logistics enterprise, focusing on international logistics and technology to support Chinese brands' overseas expansion [25]
新力量NewForce总第4853期
First Shanghai Securities· 2025-09-05 08:48
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 576.4 HKD, representing a potential upside of 40.9% from the current price of 409.0 HKD [2][8]. Core Insights - The company, Mixue Group, reported a revenue of 14.874 billion RMB in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.72 billion RMB, up 44.1% year-on-year, indicating performance that exceeded expectations [5][6]. - The company has accelerated its domestic store expansion, with a total of 53,014 stores globally, netting an increase of 6,697 stores in H1 2025. The proportion of stores in second-tier and lower-tier cities has increased to 19% and 58%, respectively [6][8]. - The overall gross margin slightly decreased to 31.6%, but the company maintained good cost control, with a net profit margin of 18.3%, up 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In H1 2025, Mixue Group achieved a revenue of 14.874 billion RMB, with product sales, equipment sales, and franchise-related services contributing 13.843 billion, 0.652 billion, and 0.038 billion RMB, respectively. The average same-store sales growth was 13.2% [5][6]. Store Expansion - The company opened 7,721 new stores while closing 1,187, resulting in a net increase of 6,697 stores. The domestic store count reached 48,281, with a focus on expanding in lower-tier cities [6][8]. Financial Metrics - The gross profit was 4.706 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 31.6%. The company reported a net profit of 2.72 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 18.3% [7][8]. Valuation and Future Outlook - The target price of 576.4 HKD is based on a projected net profit of 5.77 billion RMB for FY2025, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35x. The company is expected to maintain strong growth and competitive positioning in the industry [8].
全球门店扩张至5.3万家!蜜雪集团发布中期业绩公告,上半年净赚27亿元
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-09-02 02:57
Financial Performance - For the six months ending June 30, 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 14,874.809 million, a 39.3% increase from RMB 10,677.054 million in 2024 [1] - Gross profit for the same period was RMB 4,706.373 million, reflecting a 38.3% growth compared to RMB 3,402.695 million in 2024 [1] - The profit for the period reached RMB 2,718.214 million, marking a 44.1% increase from RMB 1,886.899 million in 2024 [1] - Basic earnings per share were RMB 7.23, up 38.2% from RMB 5.23 in the previous year [1] - Research and development expenses increased by 1.7% to RMB 41.0 million, accounting for 0.3% of total revenue, consistent with the previous year's 0.4% [1] Market Position - The company operates a vast network of over 53,000 stores globally, providing high-quality and affordable products to consumers [4] - The brand "MIXUE Ice Cream & Tea" ranks 72nd in the global food and beverage industry based on terminal retail sales for the year 2024 [2] Stock Performance - Following the announcement of its financial results, the company's stock price experienced fluctuations, closing at HKD 408.600 with a total market capitalization of HKD 155 billion [5][6] Company History - The company began its journey in 1997 with the establishment of its predecessor "Hanliu Shaved Ice" and officially adopted the "MIXUE Ice Cream" brand in 1999 [7] - It has expanded significantly since then, introducing various products and establishing a logistics system to support its operations [8]
蜜雪集团(2097.HK):营收及利润增速亮眼 多市场多品牌持续打磨向好
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.693 billion yuan, up 42.9% year-on-year, showcasing impressive revenue growth and store expansion speed [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from goods and equipment sales reached 14.495 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.6%, while franchise and related service income was 380 million yuan, up 29.8% year-on-year, primarily driven by store network expansion [2] - The gross profit margin for H1 2025 was 31.6%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with the gross margin for goods and equipment sales at 30.3%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - As of the end of H1 2025, the company had cash equivalents and time deposits of 176 million yuan, an increase of 58.5% compared to the end of 2024, benefiting from net cash from operating activities and proceeds from public offerings in Hong Kong [2] Store Expansion - The company maintained a rapid expansion momentum, with a total of 53,014 stores by the end of H1 2025, an increase of 9,796 stores compared to the end of H1 2024 [3] - The number of franchisees increased from 19,310 at the end of H1 2024 to 23,404 at the end of H1 2025 [3] Strategic Development - The company is focused on dual-line expansion both domestically and internationally, continuously iterating on multi-category and supply chain capabilities, aiming to build a competitive edge through "supply chain + brand IP + store operations" [4] - The company is deepening its presence in Southeast Asia while exploring new markets, with operational adjustments and optimizations in existing stores in Indonesia and Vietnam [4] - The company plans to focus on three main directions: consolidating domestic advantages while expanding overseas, enhancing infrastructure and operational systems, and strengthening brand building [4]
蜜雪集团(02097.HK):蜜雪冰城下沉能力再验证 咖啡副牌进入放量期
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 03:54
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in merchandise sales and store expansion [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 39.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.69 billion yuan, with a growth of 42.9% [1] - Gross margin stood at 31.6%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points [2] - The net profit margin improved to 18.1%, up by 0.5 percentage points [2] Business Segmentation - Merchandise sales accounted for 93.1% of total revenue, with a growth of 39.5% to 13.84 billion yuan [1] - Equipment sales contributed 4.4% of revenue, growing by 42.3% to 650 million yuan [1] - Franchise service revenue was 3.8 billion yuan, with a growth of 29.8%, making up 2.6% of total revenue [1] Store Expansion - The total number of stores reached 53,014, with 52,996 being franchise stores and 18 direct-operated stores [1] - The company added 7,721 franchise stores and closed 1,187, resulting in a net increase of 6,534 franchise stores [1] - The company is focusing on improving operational quality in Southeast Asia while continuing to expand in domestic markets [1] Geographic Distribution - The number of stores in mainland China and outside mainland China was 48,281 and 4,733, respectively, with net increases of 6,697 and a closure of 162 stores [1] - The company is exploring entry into Central Asia and the Americas while maintaining steady growth in Malaysia and Thailand [1] Market Dynamics - The company anticipates double-digit growth in same-store GMV, with new store openings contributing approximately 23.2% to revenue growth [2] - The company has launched 32 new products under the sub-brand Lucky Coffee, which has seen significant sales growth [3]
蜜雪集团(02097.HK):25H1收入、利润高增 持续看好公司份额提升
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-30 03:54
Core Insights - In H1 2025, Mixue Group reported a revenue of 14.875 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, with product and equipment sales contributing 14.495 billion yuan, up 39.6%, and franchise and related service income at 380 million yuan, up 29.8% [1] - The net profit for H1 2025 reached 2.718 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 44.1% [1] Revenue and Profit Growth - The company achieved a significant revenue increase driven by both product sales and franchise services, indicating strong market demand and operational efficiency [1] - The net profit growth outpaced revenue growth, suggesting improved cost management and operational leverage [1] Store Expansion Strategy - As of H1 2025, the total number of stores reached 53,014, with 52,996 being franchise stores; the number of stores in mainland China was 48,281, with a net increase of 6,697 stores year-to-date [1] - The company is focusing on expanding its "Mixue Ice City" brand in lower-tier markets while optimizing operations in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam [1] Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 31.64%, a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to rising raw material costs and changes in revenue structure [2] - The net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.27%, indicating enhanced profitability despite challenges in gross margin [2] Future Profit Forecast - The company forecasts net profits of 5.425 billion yuan, 6.586 billion yuan, and 7.670 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.28%, 21.40%, and 16.46% respectively [2] - The current price-to-earnings ratios are projected at 31.24, 25.73, and 22.09 for the respective years, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's growth potential [2]
蜜雪集团2025年中期业绩发布,全球门店数超5.3 万家,净利润27.2亿元
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 15:42
Core Viewpoint - The performance report of Mixue Group indicates strong growth in the new tea beverage industry, showcasing resilience amid overall industry slowdown, with significant increases in revenue, gross profit, and net profit [1][2][3] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Mixue Group achieved revenue of 14.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.3% - Gross profit reached 4.71 billion yuan, up 38.3% year-on-year - Net profit was 2.72 billion yuan, reflecting a 44.1% year-on-year growth [1] Store Expansion - As of June 30, 2025, Mixue Group's total number of global stores reached 53,014, with a net increase of 9,796 stores compared to the same period last year - In mainland China, stores in tier-three and below cities accounted for 57.6% of total stores, with an addition of 5,707 new stores, indicating deep penetration into lower-tier markets [1][2] International Expansion - Mixue Ice City opened its first store in Kazakhstan in April 2025, marking entry into the Central Asian market - In August 2025, its coffee brand, Lucky Coffee, launched its first overseas store in Malaysia, highlighting the brand's adaptability and cross-regional replication capabilities [1][2] Competitive Landscape - The new tea beverage industry has shifted from product innovation to competition based on system efficiency - Mixue's integrated capabilities in supply chain, brand IP, and store operations have allowed it to add nearly 10,000 stores, demonstrating its business model's replicability and risk resilience [2][3] Technological Investment - Mixue is increasing investments in smart equipment, with over 5,600 stores equipped with intelligent dispensing machines, enhancing efficiency and reducing food safety risks - This reflects a broader trend of digital transformation in the industry, moving from manual management to system-based management [2] Supply Chain Management - Mixue has established a fully controllable supply chain system, with five production bases and over 70 intelligent production lines in China - The company produces 100% of its core beverage ingredients in-house and has developed a procurement network across 38 countries [2] Future Industry Trends - The competition in the tea beverage industry will increasingly focus on the breadth and depth of supply chain management rather than just the number of stores - Brands must develop local operational capabilities, global resource allocation strength, and digital management tools to sustain growth [3]
蜜雪集团(02097):25H1收入、利润高增,持续看好公司份额提升
Hua Yuan Zheng Quan· 2025-08-28 04:36
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, the company achieved significant revenue and profit growth, with a strong outlook for market share enhancement [5][7] - The company recorded a revenue of 14.875 billion RMB in 2025H1, representing a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and a net profit of 2.718 billion RMB, up 44.1% year-on-year [7] - The company is expanding its domestic store network while optimizing overseas operations, particularly in Southeast Asia [7] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023: 20.302 billion RMB, 2024: 24.829 billion RMB, 2025E: 30.443 billion RMB, 2026E: 36.691 billion RMB, 2027E: 42.410 billion RMB, with respective growth rates of 49.55%, 22.29%, 22.61%, 20.52%, and 15.59% [6] - The net profit forecasts are: 2023: 3.137 billion RMB, 2024: 4.436 billion RMB, 2025E: 5.425 billion RMB, 2026E: 6.586 billion RMB, 2027E: 7.670 billion RMB, with growth rates of 57.13%, 41.41%, 22.28%, 21.40%, and 16.46% respectively [6] - The company’s gross margin for 2025H1 was 31.64%, with a slight decline of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [7] Market Expansion - As of 2025H1, the company had a total of 53,014 stores, with 52,996 being franchise stores, and a net increase of 6,697 stores in mainland China since the beginning of the year [7] - The company is focusing on enhancing its brand presence in the domestic market while strategically optimizing its operations in overseas markets like Indonesia and Vietnam [7] Profitability Metrics - The report indicates that the company's net profit margin improved by 0.6 percentage points to 18.27% in 2025H1 [7] - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the upcoming years are 36.23 for 2023, 31.24 for 2024, 31.24 for 2025E, 25.73 for 2026E, and 22.09 for 2027E [6]