Market Overview - The market showed strong fluctuations throughout the day, with the ChiNext Index rising over 2% at one point. Lithium mining stocks experienced a collective surge, with companies like Tianqi Lithium and Ganfeng Lithium hitting the daily limit. The Xinjiang sector continued its strong performance, with Xinjiang Communications Construction and Xinjiang Torch also reaching the limit. The PEEK material concept saw significant gains, with companies like Zhongxin Fluorine Materials and Jinfat Technology hitting the limit. Computing hardware stocks also showed strength, with Shenghong Technology reaching a historical high. In contrast, gold stocks collectively adjusted, with Chifeng Jilong Gold falling over 5%. Overall, more than 4,200 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with a total transaction volume of 1.85 trillion yuan [1]. Key Highlights Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector saw a significant rise, with stocks like Jiangte Motor and Tianqi Lithium hitting the daily limit. The catalyst for this surge was the announcement from CATL regarding the suspension of mining operations at its Yichun project due to the expiration of its mining license, which is currently under renewal. This follows previous announcements of production halts from various lithium mining companies due to regulatory issues. As a result, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 8,000 yuan, averaging 78,000 yuan per ton, and lithium carbonate futures also saw an 8% increase [4][5][6]. Domestic Chip Sector - The domestic chip sector experienced a notable increase, with stocks like Hongtian Co., Haili Co., and Wantong Development hitting the daily limit. Dongxin Co. has seen over a 100% increase in its stock price over the past ten trading days. The delivery of the 500th stepper lithography machine by Shanghai Chip Micro Technology Co. was highlighted, which has a 35% global market share and a 90% domestic market share. This machine is crucial for advanced packaging technologies [6][7]. Robotics Sector - The robotics sector remained active, with companies like Beiwai Technology and Zhongxin Fluorine Materials hitting the daily limit. The 2025 World Robot Conference opened in Beijing, where industry leaders noted a significant growth trend in the robotics industry, with many companies reporting a 50%-100% increase in performance [8][9]. Other Active Sectors - Other sectors such as computing power, pharmaceuticals, and military industry continued to show activity, while gold and film sectors experienced declines [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market's repair period will continue. In the first stage, interest rates will return to the pre - adjustment level. Whether they can break through new lows depends on the performance of other markets and fundamental pressures. It is expected that the 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds may return to around 1.65% and 1.85% in the short term. If other markets have moderate growth and demand continues to slow, interest rates may hit new lows [7][22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Repair Situation - This week, the bond market started a repair rally as expected, with yields across all tenors generally declining. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds dropped by 2.7bps and 2.3bps to 1.71% and 1.95% respectively. The repair of credit bonds was more significant, with the yields of 3 - year and 5 - year secondary capital bonds falling by 7.8bps and 6.4bps to 1.85% and 1.95% respectively. The yield of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit also dropped by 3.6bps to 1.64% [1][9]. - The direct trigger for the bond market repair was the cooling of supply contraction expectations and the correction in commodities and the stock market. The Politburo meeting's mild stance on over - capacity governance led to a 3.8% decline in the Nanhua Industrial Products Index this week, and the stock market also adjusted, reducing risk appetite [1][9]. Fundamental Factors Affecting the Bond Market - Fundamentally, there is an increasing downward pressure. The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, with a larger seasonal decline than in previous years. The new orders index dropped 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%. The service and construction PMIs also weakened, falling 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points to 50.0% and 50.6% respectively [2][10]. - Without sufficient demand, price increases are mostly structural, and terminal prices are unlikely to rise significantly. Rising upstream prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the mid - and downstream sectors, and the cost is often passed on to the mid - and downstream industries, compressing their profits. Supply contraction also reduces investment and financing demand, not directly pushing up interest rates [2][15]. Bond Market's Own Conditions - The overall asset shortage situation persists. In terms of capital demand, there is a slowdown pressure. The bill rate has weakened significantly, with the 6 - month state - owned bill re - discount rate reaching a new low of 0.4% this week, indicating weak credit demand. Government bond supply will also decrease, with the remaining net financing of government bonds in the next five months expected to be 4.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease [3][16]. - In terms of capital supply, it remains abundant. The scales of bank deposits, insurance assets, wealth management products, and bond funds are all steadily increasing. The central bank has stated that it will maintain ample liquidity, and the current loose money situation is expected to continue [3][16]. Impact of Treasury Tax Rate Adjustment - The adjustment of the treasury tax rate is mostly a one - time impact, increasing the tax burden on financial institutions such as banks. It benefits old bonds and is negative for financial bonds and new bonds. The new - old bond yield spread may widen by 5.6 - 10.8bps, and the estimated total tax increase is 31.55 billion yuan, mainly borne by banks. Public funds may gain a 3.08% tax advantage in interest income in the short term, but future tax adjustments for public funds need further observation [4][18]. Market Volatility and Fragility - Although the overall situation is favorable for the bond market, market volatility and fragility are increasing. As coupon rates decline, the proportion of trading positions is rising, and market institutions are extending durations to increase capital gains. In the second quarter, the average durations of medium - and long - term interest - rate bond funds and medium - and long - term credit - bond funds increased significantly by 0.81 years and 0.94 years respectively, the largest single - quarter increase on record [5][19].

Group 1: Market Performance - On July 29, A-shares saw the three major indices turn positive, while the non-ferrous metal sector continued to adjust [1] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) fell by 1.05%, with leading declines from stocks such as Shenghe Resources, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [1] - The gold stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.69%, with a premium rate of 0.17%, and stocks like Mingpai Jewelry and Hengbang Shares also saw significant declines [1] Group 2: Fund Flows and Trends - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) has recently experienced a net inflow of over 24 million yuan in the past five trading days [1] - The total scale of 53 gold-themed funds reached 246.9 billion yuan as of July 27, an increase of 12.85 billion yuan from the end of last year, marking a growth rate of 108.53% [2] - All 53 gold-themed funds have seen their net values rise this year, with 22 funds showing a growth rate exceeding 30% [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - The non-ferrous metal ETF tracks an index focusing on industrial metals like gold, copper, and aluminum, with respective weights of 30.6% for copper and 16.2% for gold [1] - The gold stock ETF tracks the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Index, with the top ten holdings accounting for over 66.13% of the fund [2] - Analysts suggest that the current global trade and financial environment, characterized by "de-globalization" and "de-dollarization," is favorable for gold's investment value and safe-haven appeal [3]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer market is experiencing a divergence in performance, with passenger car retail sales exceeding expectations, while tourism demand continues to rise, and movie box office revenues showing a decline. Manufacturing activity is improving, but construction demand remains weak, leading to price increases in steel and coal due to anti-involution expectations [1]. Group 1: Consumer Market - Passenger car retail sales showed a significant increase in June, with a year-on-year growth of 18.3%, surpassing previous expectations, although dealer inventory pressure is slightly rising, indicating uncertainty in the sustainability of this growth [2]. - Real estate sales are declining, with a 25.9% year-on-year decrease in transaction area across 30 major cities, and a more pronounced drop in first, second, and third-tier cities [2]. - Service consumption is mixed, with tourism demand increasing, reflected in a 1.6% month-on-month rise in the tourism consumption price index in Hainan, while movie box office revenues fell by 39.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from positive to negative growth [2]. Group 2: Manufacturing Sector - The construction sector is facing weak demand, impacting building activity, while anti-involution policies are expected to enhance the exit of outdated capacities, leading to a rebound in steel prices despite weak demand [3]. - Manufacturing activity is improving, with increased operating rates in the automotive and chemical industries, and a rise in asphalt production, suggesting resilience in infrastructure construction demand [3]. - Resource prices are affected by seasonal temperature increases leading to higher coal consumption, with coal prices continuing to rise amid tightening supply expectations [3]. Group 3: Transportation and Logistics - Passenger transport demand is on the rise, with a 3.8% month-on-month increase in the migration scale index and a 1.6% increase in domestic flight operations week-on-week, indicating a recovery in travel activity [4]. - Freight logistics are also showing growth, with a 0.2% increase in highway truck traffic and a 1.5% increase in railway freight volume week-on-week, alongside a year-on-year growth of 15.9% in postal express collection [4]. - Maritime transport prices are recovering, with slight fluctuations in domestic port cargo and container throughput, indicating ongoing activity in the shipping sector [4].