汇编 | 甘雅婷 2025年末，白酒行业在经历年内政策冲击与价格快速调整后，步入周期磨底关键阶段。综合近期主流券商研判，市场共识在于：尽管终端需求仍显疲弱， 但渠道库存、企业报表压力已进入加速出清阶段，以龙头酒企为主导的市场化调整方案正逐步落地，为行业构筑新的平衡点。 市场关注点正从"何时见底"转向"如何修复"，分化与结构优化将成为下一阶段的主旋律。 年度压力加速出清 底部支撑日益坚实 多家机构认为，行业最剧烈的调整阶段可能已经过去，当前正处在构建新均衡的磨底期。 目前，价格与库存呈现初步企稳迹象。主要产品批价在经历普遍下行后，下行斜率放缓。国信证券观察到，"区域龙头主品批价在双节后出现企稳趋势"。 同时，渠道库存压力高点已现，国信证券提到"库存在25Q3触达周期高点后环比减少"。这一变化表明，通过酒企主动控货与市场需求自发调节，供需失 衡的矛盾正得到初步缓解。 同时，酒企的业绩压力加速释放，为修复创造条件。第三季度成为上市公司业绩压力的集中释放期。国信证券指出，以"五粮液、古井贡酒为代表的公司 降低增长要求，三季报业绩大幅下滑，逐步释放渠道压力"。开源证券亦认为，"当前白酒行业基本面已接近底部"。业绩的"深 ...

2026年1月1日9点整，i茅台平台准时开闸，1499元/瓶的53度飞天茅台正式面向全国消费者直销。消息一出，全网沸腾——然而不到半分钟，首批配额"秒 罄"，页面卡顿、刷新无果，无数普通用户再次沦为"陪跑者"。这场被官方誉为"打击黄牛、回归消费本质"的改革首秀，一面重创囤货炒家，一面却因抢购 机制不透明再陷公平性质疑。 此次政策堪称雷霆手段：每人每日限购12瓶（两箱），分批每5分钟一轮投放，价格直击市场底价。相较此前2600元以上的零售均价，千元价差瞬间蒸发， 黄牛利润从百元骤缩至几十元。更致命的是，高频补货机制让囤货行为风险剧增——2025年末已有烟酒店主因高价囤货单批亏损超30万元，部分回收商直接 暂停业务，"炒茅"神话正加速崩塌。 然而，消费者并未完全迎来春天。尽管有幸运儿晒出成功下单截图高呼"圆梦"，但更多人抱怨"技术黄牛"仍用脚本抢购，普通用户连页面都打不开。舆论尖 锐指出：所谓"动态投放"实为变相饥饿营销，实名制与防刷系统形同虚设，"平价茅台"依旧可望不可即。 更深层的矛盾在于需求结构变化。官方寄望1499元定价激活年轻群体，但数据显示35岁以下常饮白酒者不足一成（注：该数据存疑，样本代表性有限） ...

盘点2025 年白酒市场最大事件，莫过于茅台把"神坛价"腰斩了。 飞天茅台批发价从 2022 年的 3000 多元，一路跌到如今 1500 元以下。老酒也跟着往下掉，曾经被奉 为"理财产品"的年份茅台，突然从金融属性跌回消费品。你手里那瓶当初 3000 买来做面子的，现在别 人只认1500 的行情。 情绪价值蒸发得比酒精还快。市场跌宕背后，是经销商、囤客和消费者的焦虑。 笔者12月21日走访上海北部最大的茅台商。老板摊开账本，指着 21 年飞天说"1950直接拿，越放越 跌"。这句话放在两年前根本不可能听到。那时候的茅台，是茶余饭后的资产，是年终的硬通货，是中 产幻想里的"最后一块保值堡垒"。 如今，它变成了"库存压力"，从金融属性回归现实消费。 6月11日，散瓶批发价首次跌破2000元心理关口，随后相继失守1,900元、1,800元重要关口。 10月底，飞天茅台批发行情首次跌破1700元大关。11月末，进一步跌破1600元。截至12月中旬，批发价 已全面跌破1500元。 而今年年初，箱装飞天茅台的价格还在2300元/瓶左右徘徊，今年以来价格跌幅超过35%。 批发价格一路下行，经销商惊呼"活不下去了"，囤酒客 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the resilience and confidence of Guizhou Moutai's distributors in Guangdong Province, emphasizing their commitment to overcoming market challenges together [1] - Guizhou Moutai's distributors plan to enhance market expansion by increasing bottle opening rates, refining consumption scenarios, and targeting younger demographics through dedicated social media platforms [1] - The company aims to promote its social responsibility through various public welfare initiatives while focusing on the development of a series of activities for inheritors [1] Group 2 - Xiangcai Securities reports that Moutai is focusing on consumer-centric strategies, promoting "three transformations and three terminal changes" to ensure long-term stability in market channels [2] - The report suggests that Moutai is building a comprehensive anti-counterfeiting technology system involving multiple carriers, subjects, and technologies [2] - The analysis indicates that there are opportunities in both innovative consumption categories and traditional sectors that are actively seeking change, recommending attention to leading companies with strong demand stability and risk resistance [4]

著名投资人段永平的最新言论在投资圈激起波澜，他认为手持闲钱投资茅台的长期回报远超过存放在银行，这一判断背后隐藏着当前银行存款利率持续下行 与稀缺资产价值凸显的深刻逻辑。 作为广东步步高电子工业有限公司创始人和步步高集团董事长，段永平坦言自己有很多朋友喜欢喝茅台，所以能够理解这门生意。他更指出，对于闲钱而 言，"买茅台肯定是比放银行好"。 01 投资逻辑 面对茅台股价从2021年的2600元高点回落，段永平显得异常淡定。"一个股票，你要是扛不住掉50%，你就不应该买。"他在11月的采访中表示。 "有什么理由不看好呢？"段永平近日接受采访时表示，"很多人不理解这个问题。投机百分之八九十的散户都是亏钱的，牛市、熊市都亏。" 这位投资界大佬以他一贯的直白风格表达了坚定看好茅台的态度。 这种淡定源于他对茅台长期价值的深刻认知。段永平强调，投资决策不是由市盈率决定的，而是由未来的现金流决定。 "我觉得茅台将来一定会回来，但是什么时候我不知道，可能五年、十年，没有人知道。"他坦言。关键在于，"这个钱如果不放在茅台上，必须要有个地方 去。那去哪里？这个很重要。" 对于宏观环境对投资的影响，段永平也有独到见解。"我不觉得需要。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported a steady performance in its Q3 financial results, with revenue and profit both maintaining over 6% year-on-year growth for the first three quarters, although growth slowed in Q3 with revenue and profit increasing by less than 1% [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 39.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.56%, while net profit was 19.224 billion yuan, up 0.48% year-on-year [2][3]. - For the first three quarters, total revenue was 128.454 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.36% year-on-year growth, and net profit was 64.627 billion yuan, growing by 6.25% year-on-year [2][3]. Channel and Product Structure - The i Moutai platform achieved sales of 12.692 billion yuan, with direct sales channel revenue at 55.555 billion yuan and wholesale channel revenue at 72.842 billion yuan [1]. - Moutai liquor generated 110.513 billion yuan in revenue, accounting for over 86% of total revenue, while series liquor contributed 17.884 billion yuan, approximately 13.9% of total revenue [4]. Distributor Network - The total number of distributors reached 2,446, with a net increase of 199, all of which were series liquor distributors, indicating a structural adjustment in the distributor network [1][3].

Core Insights - The iMoutai platform is transforming high-end liquor consumption from "passive supply" to "active customization" by introducing a "date selection" digital value-added service, allowing consumers to choose specific production dates for their purchases [1][3]. Group 1: Service Innovation - The "date selection" service enables consumers to link significant life events with their purchases, turning the liquor into a sentimental keepsake [2]. - This service breaks away from rigid supply models, catering to personalized needs for special occasions such as gifting and collecting [2]. - The initiative is seen as a way to package time as a high-end consumer product, enhancing brand value and creating new market opportunities [2]. Group 2: Digital Infrastructure - The "date selection" service is supported by a comprehensive digital technology framework, ensuring traceability from production to delivery [3]. - Technologies such as supply chain digitization, IoT, and blockchain are utilized to provide consumers with a transparent and reliable purchasing experience [3]. - The service complements existing offerings like "instant delivery," catering to both immediate consumption and long-term emotional needs [3]. Group 3: Brand and Consumer Connection - The high-end liquor market is shifting towards emotional and cultural values, with consumers seeking deeper connections beyond mere consumption [4]. - The introduction of the "date selection" service aligns with the company's commitment to quality, cultural heritage, and corporate responsibility [4]. - The initiative aims to create a virtuous cycle where cultural empowerment enhances consumer trust and loyalty [5]. Group 4: Future Directions - The company is transitioning from merely selling liquor to offering a lifestyle experience, focusing on personalized services driven by data [5]. - The "threefold value" approach—functional, experiential, and emotional—aims to redefine competitive advantage and build a more engaging digital consumption ecosystem [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Kweichow Moutai with a target price of Rmb1,972, indicating a potential upside from the current price of Rmb1,420 [2][6]. Core Insights - Kweichow Moutai demonstrated resilience amid industry volatility, with mid-term performance showing steady growth driven by an optimized core product structure. In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of Rmb89.39 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and a net profit of Rmb45.40 billion, up 8.9% [3][12]. - The company is focusing on international expansion and direct sales, with Q2 direct sales revenue reaching Rmb16.79 billion, a 16.5% increase, and international revenue growing by 27.6% to Rmb1.77 billion [4][13]. - Profitability remains strong, with a gross margin of 90.4% and a net profit margin of 47.8%, despite slight declines due to changes in product mix [5][14]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and profit forecasts for Kweichow Moutai are optimistic, with projected revenues of Rmb189.91 billion, Rmb207.21 billion, and Rmb226.90 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of Rmb93.82 billion, Rmb103.82 billion, and Rmb115.45 billion for the same years [2][11]. - The diluted EPS is expected to grow from Rmb75 in 2025 to Rmb92 in 2027, reflecting a strong earnings growth trajectory [2][11]. - The company maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of at least 75% over the next three years, translating to a dividend yield of approximately 4% [6][15].

Market Overview - US July CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, core CPI increased by 0.3%, with overall CPI year-on-year growth steady at 2.7%, slightly below the expected 2.8%[6] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to 95%[9] - A-shares hit a new high for the year, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.50% to 3,665 points, and total trading volume reaching 1.91 trillion yuan[16] Currency and Commodity Trends - The US dollar index fell by 0.4% to 98.10, reflecting increased expectations for Fed rate cuts[28] - Oil prices declined, with NYMEX crude down 1.24% to $63.17 per barrel, amid OPEC's upward revision of global oil demand by 100,000 barrels per day[28] - Gold prices experienced slight fluctuations, closing down 0.1% at $3,348.9 per ounce[28] Fixed Income Market - US Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 2-year yield down 3.8 basis points to 3.73% and the 10-year yield up 0.4 basis points to 4.29%[31] - Asian investment-grade bond spreads narrowed by 0-2 basis points, indicating increased buying interest[31] Stock Market Performance - Major US indices saw gains, with the Dow Jones up 1.1% to 44,458.6 points and the Nasdaq rising 1.4% to 21,681.9 points[8] - European markets displayed mixed results, with the DAX down 0.2% while the CAC 40 rose 0.7%[9] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.25%, closing just above the 25,000-point mark[11] Sector Insights - In the US, the telecommunications sector led gains, rising 1.79%, while the materials sector saw a 1.86% increase in Latin America[9] - In Hong Kong, the technology sector gained 1.7%, while healthcare stocks fell by 1.0%[11] - Shopify reported strong Q2 results, with European GMV growth accelerating by 49% year-on-year, indicating robust performance in the e-commerce sector[8]