【大河财立方消息】①美国三大股指全线收涨，道指涨1.23%报48977.18点，再创历史新高，标普500指 数涨0.64%报6902.05点，纳指涨0.69%报23395.82点； ②科技股涨跌互现，特斯拉涨超3%，亚马逊涨近3%，脸书涨超1%，谷歌涨0.44%，苹果跌超1%，英伟 达跌0.39%，微软跌0.02%； ⑨美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.46个基点报3.449%，3年期美债收益率跌2.82个基点报 3.519%，5年期美债收益率跌4.33个基点报3.701%，10年期美债收益率跌3.14个基点报4.159%，30年期 美债收益率跌2.26个基点报4.850%； ⑩欧债收益率集体下跌，英国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点报4.505%，法国10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基 点报3.571%，德国10年期国债收益率跌3个基点报2.868%，意大利10年期国债收益率跌4.4个基点报 3.566%，西班牙10年期国债收益率跌3.9个基点报3.298%。 ③热门中概股多数上涨，脑再生涨超31%，比特小鹿涨逾8%，贝壳涨超6%，老虎证券涨逾6%，再鼎医 药涨超4%，哔哩哔哩涨逾3%。跌幅方面，硕迪生物跌 ...

对手的立场我们也得看清楚，外部关切往往夹杂着自身政策选择的投射，所谓的"担忧"，有时是合理，有时只是为本国政策开脱的借口，问题是，你把焦点 放在对方的情绪上，往往忽略了自我调整的机会，听着看着，别忘了自己要做什么。 周五涨了54点，听上去平常，谁都能数得清，对吧，放到一周里，它累计上涨了约340点，涨幅0.49%，这不是偶然的小波动，这是趋势的一声咳嗽，或者 说是某种被压抑已久的呼吸，开始逐步扩张。 再说历史，别忘了以往的节点，人民币曾多次在全球流动性调整时表现出弹性，特别是在外部不确定性上升的时候，真正能撑得住的，往往不是一时的资本 流入，而是经济基本面和政策体系的韧性，换句话说，短线涨跌可以被交易员玩弄，长期走势却要靠结构性力量来支撑。 有人会问，涨54点，能说明什么，能说明市场信心吗，能说明政策有效吗，我倒想反问，市场信心是谁给的，政策有效是谁来验证，光看一个尾盘的数字， 就想把复杂问题框定成简单结论，这不是偷懒，是自欺。 还有利益考量，不要把资本想得太单纯，资本像河流，有时它需要一条河道，有时它更在意出路与成本，人民币走强，意味着进口账单便宜些，企业负担会 轻一点，同时也意味着部分热钱的套利空间缩小了 ...

⑥美油主力合约收涨0.03%报58.4美元/桶，布油主力合约跌0.05%报61.84美元/桶； ⑦纽约尾盘，美元指数涨0.06%报97.95，离岸人民币兑美元涨117.5个基点报7.0076； ①美国三大股指普遍收涨，道指涨0.6%报48731.16点，标普500指数涨0.32%报6932.05点，纳指涨0.22% 报23613.31点； ②大型科技股涨跌不一，脸书涨0.39%，苹果涨0.53%，微软涨0.24%，亚马逊涨0.10%，英伟达跌 0.32%，特斯拉跌0.03%，谷歌跌0.08%； ③中概股涨跌不一，再鼎医药涨超6%，阿特斯太阳能涨逾1%，搜狐涨超1%，比特小鹿涨逾1%，拼多 多涨超1%。脑再生跌逾2%，硕迪生物跌超2%，霸王茶姬跌逾1%，金山云跌超1%，好未来跌逾1%； ④周三欧洲股市多数休市，英国、法国股市为半日市。法国CAC40指数收平，报8103.58点；英国富时 100指数收跌0.19%，报9870.68点； ⑤COMEX黄金期货收跌0.01%报4505.4美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货收涨1.04%报71.875美元/盎司； ⑧伦敦基本金属涨跌不一，LME期铜涨0.6%报12133美元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar reported at 7.0342, showing a decline of 15 points from the previous trading day, while experiencing an overall increase of approximately 195 points or 0.28% for the week [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - The offshore yuan traded within a range of 7.0586 to 7.0309 during the week, indicating sustained high-level fluctuations from Tuesday to Friday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB surged against the USD, reaching a high of 7.1182, the first time breaking 7.12 since November 6, 2024, driven by stable exchange rate policies, strong domestic equity market performance, and rising expectations for Fed rate cuts [2][3][4]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Movement - On August 28, the offshore RMB/USD exchange rate rose sharply, with a daily increase of over 340 points, peaking at 7.1182 [2][3]. - As of August 29, the offshore RMB was reported at 7.12045, up 320 points from the previous New York close, trading within a range of 7.1551 to 7.1182 [3]. Group 2: Factors Supporting RMB Strength - Analysts attribute the RMB's strength to a balanced exchange rate policy, good performance in domestic equity markets attracting foreign capital, and expectations of Fed rate cuts [4][5]. - If the Fed proceeds with rate cuts, it may weaken the USD, further alleviating external pressures on the RMB and potentially benefiting capital inflows into Chinese securities [4]. Group 3: Fed Rate Cut Expectations - Fed Governor Waller expressed support for a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with further cuts expected in the next 3-6 months, influenced by economic data [6][7]. - Market expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September have risen to 89%, with a cumulative cut of 55 basis points anticipated by year-end [7].

每经AI快讯，8月20日，离岸人民币(CNH)兑美元报7.1871元，较周一纽约尾盘涨4点，日内整体交投于 7.1919-7.1822元区间。 ...

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill proposed by President Trump faces delays in the Senate, with a vote postponed to June 30, and is estimated to increase U.S. national debt by $3.3 trillion over the next decade according to the Congressional Budget Office [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that there is no reason to increase the issuance of long-term national debt given current yield levels, but hopes for a decline in yields as inflation slows [1] - The European Central Bank maintains a 2% inflation target and considers the harmonized consumer price index (HICP) as an appropriate measure, while also suggesting the inclusion of owner-occupied housing costs in inflation statistics [3] Group 2 - Germany's June CPI rose by 2% year-on-year, reaching the European Central Bank's target level for the first time in nearly a year [4] - The U.S. Federal Reserve official reiterated expectations for a rate cut this year, with three rate cuts anticipated next year [2] - The U.S. White House announced the resumption of trade negotiations with Canada following the cancellation of the digital services tax [1]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) has strengthened against the US dollar, closing at 7.1791, marking a rise of 69 points from the previous New York session, indicating a positive trend over the last two trading days [1] Summary by Category - **Currency Performance** - The offshore yuan (CNH) traded at 7.1791 against the US dollar, reflecting a gain of 69 points from the previous close [1] - The currency has shown a strengthening trend for two consecutive trading days [1] - The trading range for the day was between 7.1876 and 7.1742 [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.7% at 42,215.8 points, the S&P 500 down 0.84% at 5,982.72 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.91% at 19,521.09 points [1] - Major tech stocks experienced declines, with Tesla down nearly 4%, Apple down over 1%, and Microsoft, Nvidia, Google, Netflix, Amazon, and Meta showing slight decreases; Intel saw a slight increase [1] - Most popular Chinese concept stocks fell, with Hesai down over 6%, WeRide down over 5%, Li Auto down over 4%, Tencent Music down over 3%, and Bilibili down over 2% [1] - European stock indices also closed lower, with Germany's DAX down 1.12% at 23,434.65 points, France's CAC40 down 0.76% at 7,683.73 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.46% at 8,834.03 points [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices surged, with U.S. crude oil main contract up 4.97% at $73.74 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.96% at $76.86 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.32% at $3,406.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.01% at $37.18 per ounce [1] - Most London base metals declined, with LME aluminum up 1.25% at $2,545.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.34% at $9,670.00 per ton, LME zinc down 0.81% at $2,636.50 per ton, LME nickel down 0.89% at $14,935.00 per ton, LME tin down 1.13% at $32,250.00 per ton, and LME lead down 1.57% at $1,976.00 per ton [1] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields collectively fell, with the 2-year yield down 2.51 basis points at 3.939%, the 3-year yield down 3.91 basis points at 3.886%, the 5-year yield down 5.27 basis points at 3.977%, the 10-year yield down 6.92 basis points at 4.377%, and the 30-year yield down 7.36 basis points at 4.883% [1] - European bond yields generally rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 1.7 basis points at 4.548%, France's 10-year yield up 1.5 basis points at 3.246%, Germany's 10-year yield up 0.8 basis points at 2.531%, Italy's 10-year yield up 3.3 basis points at 3.484%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 2.3 basis points at 3.162% [1]

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 1.79% at 42,197.79 points, the S&P 500 down 1.13% at 5,976.97 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.3% at 19,406.83 points [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Intel down over 3%, Nvidia down over 2%, and Apple, Meta down more than 1%. Microsoft, Netflix, Google, and Amazon saw slight declines, while Tesla rose about 2% [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with Xpeng Motors down over 5%, Alibaba, Bilibili, and Li Auto down over 3%, and JD.com, Pinduoduo, and Baidu down over 2% [1] - European stock indices also fell across the board, with Germany's DAX down 1.07% at 23,516.23 points, France's CAC40 down 1.04% at 7,684.68 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.39% at 8,850.63 points [1] Commodity Prices - International oil prices surged, with U.S. oil main contract up 7.55% at $73.18 per barrel and Brent oil main contract up 7.5% at $74.56 per barrel [1] - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% at $3,452.60 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.21% at $36.37 per ounce [1] Currency and Bond Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.29% to 98.15, while the offshore RMB fell 164.1 basis points against the dollar to 7.18955 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields collectively increased, with the 2-year yield up 4.81 basis points at 3.945%, the 3-year yield up 4.17 basis points at 3.900%, the 5-year yield up 4.20 basis points at 4.003%, the 10-year yield up 4.54 basis points at 4.405%, and the 30-year yield up 5.36 basis points at 4.896% [1] - European bond yields also rose, with the UK 10-year yield up 7.4 basis points at 4.548%, France's 10-year yield up 7.2 basis points at 3.250%, Germany's 10-year yield up 5.9 basis points at 2.531%, Italy's 10-year yield up 7.9 basis points at 3.481%, and Spain's 10-year yield up 8.1 basis points at 3.154% [1]